The impact of fundamental uncertainties on economic growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-234
Author(s):  
Ömer Yalçinkaya ◽  
Ali Kemal Çelik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Theory ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Production Function ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Total Production ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis paper addresses the impact of fundamental (economic, political and geopolitical) uncertainties on GDP growth of the world’s largest 20 economies (W-20) using the Cobb-Douglas total production function within the scope of the second-generation panel data methodology for 1990–2016. The aim of the paper is to explore whether these uncertainties lead to a contractionary impact on growth as suggested by the economic theory. The estimation results revealed that indeed this was the case. Our results also indicate that the global uncertainties led the economic growth rates of the selected countries to perform below their exact potential since the 2008 global economic crisis and to fail to attain an expected recovery during the process.

scholarly journals Impacts of Seaport Investment on the Economic Growth

2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 365-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tahar Ammar Jouili ◽  
Mohamed Anis Allouche
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Production Function ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
The Public ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Douglas Production Function

The aim of this paper is to estimate the impact of seaports investment on the economic growth. Seaports are seen by many governments as an important factor in the strengthening of the economies. During the last two decades, the Tunisian succeeding governments have been allocating a great amount of money to develop seaport infrastructures. However, the Tunisian economy witnessed fluctuations in the economic growth rates and decrease in the rate of employment during the same period of time. This study used an econometric model by employing the Cobb-Douglas production function. The sample was composed of Tunisia's economic sectors (manufacturing, services and agriculture) over the period 1983-2011. The results of the study show that the public investment in seaport infrastructures has apositive influence on Tunisian economic growth. The study also revealed that the biggest beneficiary from the seaport investment infrastructure is the service sector. This paper aims to estimate the impact of seaports investment on the economic growth. The seaports are seen by many governments as an important factor in the strengthening of the economies. During the last two decades, the Tunisian succeeding governments were allocating a great amount of money to develop seaports' infrastructures. However, the Tunisian economy witnessed fluctuating in the economic growth rates and decreased in the rate of employment during the same period of time. This study used an econometric model by employing the Cobb-Douglas production function. The sample composed of Tunisia's economic sectors (manufacturing, services and agriculture) over the period 1983-2011. The results of the study show that the public investment in seaports' infrastructures has a positive influence on Tunisian economic growth. The study also revealed that the biggest beneficiary from the seaports investment infrastructure is the services sector.

scholarly journals Book review: Steve Keen, Debunking economics

10.26458/1427 ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Darío Ibarra ZAVALA
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
The World ◽  
Economic Growth Rates

The world has reduced its economic growth rates since several decades ago. Besides, there have been periods of economic “moderation” and economic crisis. Prior to the crisis of 2008, the world seemed to be running properly, but suddenly things changed and mainstream economists were not able to explain the account of this crisis. .....

Decomposition of Russian GDP growth rates in 2007—2017 and forecast for 2018—2020

2018 ◽  
pp. 5-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. Drobyshevsky ◽  
G. I. Idrisov ◽  
A. S. Kaukin ◽  
P. N. Pavlov ◽  
S. G. Sinelnikov‑Murylev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Structural Unemployment ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Random Shocks ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
Further Development

The paper provides further development of the methodology of GDP growth rates decomposition, adapted for the case of Russia. It proposes the calculation of indicators of structural unemployment NAWRU and total factor productivity for the Russian economy. The paper offers estimates of structural, foreign trade and market components of GDP growth rates for various macroeconomic scenarios for 2018—2020. The sum of the components of the business cycle and random shocks is expected to be the main source of Russian GDP growth in 2018—2020, which together with the renewal of investment in 2017 may indicate the beginning of a new cycle of economic growth in Russia. Within the framework of the considered macroeconomic scenarios an expected contribution of the terms of trade component will be of an order of –1 p. p. of the yearly GDP growth rates in 2018—2020. In all major macroeconomic scenarios the structural component of GDP growth rates is expected to continue to decelerate in 2018—2020. The results suggest that the delay of structural reforms is inadvisable in order to create the prerequisites to achieve economic growth rates equal to or more than the world average.

scholarly journals The Influence of Insurance Market on the Economic Development of Ukraine

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (17) ◽  
pp. 37-47
Author(s):  
Liudmyla Rybalchenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Production Function ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Insurance Market ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
Insurance Development

The level of economic development and the economic growth rates in Ukraine are very uneven. On the basement of production function were analyzed the factors of economic development in Ukraine. The influence of the level of the insurance development on its economic growth was considered.

Social Capital as a Factor of Economic Growth in the Regions of Russia

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 124-149 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Capital ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Sociocultural Factors ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the influence of sociocultural factors of economic growth on economic development of the Russian regions. The article analyses the influence of various forms of social capital according to James Coleman (norms of trust between individuals, horizontal ties, social norms and values) on economic growth rates of the Russian regions. The paper uses an augmented neoclassical model of economic growth to test the hypotheses about the impact of the initial social capital distribution on the subsequent GRP growth rates in 2007–2016. Particular attention is paid to the selection of relevant tools for measuring the level of social capital of the Russian regions. The empirical specifications of the proposed theoretical model of regional economic growth were evaluated using the two-stage least squares regression (2SLS); the robustness check was carried out using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM). The results of econometric analysis show that the initial spatial distribution of generalized trust does not have a statistically signifi cant effect on economic development. At the same time, the activity of lobbying groups (Olson groups) reduces the rate of economic growth in the regions of the Russian Federation. Increasing the level of civic cooperation (the willingness of citizens to unite to solve their own or social problems in the region) is associated with higher rates of economic development. For the selected study period, the economic signifi cance of sociocultural factors is marginal relative to the significance of the fundamental neoclassical growth factors. Unlocking the potential of sociocultural factors of economic growth may suggest activating the processes of structural transformation of the Russian economy by increasing the economic importance of the private sector and SME segment.

The Problem of Factors that Determine the Economic Development of Modern Russia

2018 ◽  
pp. 37-41
Author(s):  
Елена Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya ◽  
Леонид Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
The World ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
To Receive

In the economy of Russia after the crisis of 2008–2009 systemic changes were occurred. In the period before this crisis, Russia experienced economic growth, which was faster than the growth rate of the world economy, then after the crisis, economic growth rates do not exceed the growth rates of the world economy. To identify the reasons and factors for changing the model of economic development of the country, a project for researching the economy before and after the crisis of 2008–2009 is proposed. It is proposed to receive quantitative assessments of the impact of economic, socio-economic, political factors and other significant factors that determine productivity, differing by region of the country, by building econometric models of productivity in the form of expanded production functions.

Did the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 Impact Economic Growth in North Africa?

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 437-455
Author(s):  
Hassan Y. Aly ◽  
Mark C. Strazicich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper, we utilize time series tests with structural breaks to test for evidence of an impact on economic growth rates in North African countries following the 2007−2009 U.S. and global financial crisis. One or two breaks in economic growth are identified in each country, except for Morocco where no break is found. However, breaks that coincide with the financial crisis are found in only two of the six countries (Libya and Mauritania), while other breaks coincide most often with earlier U.S. and EU recessions. To further examine the impact of shocks, impulse response functions are estimated from Vector Auto-Regression models with structural breaks. We again find no evidence that shocks from the financial crisis had a significant impact on economic growth in North Africa. We conclude that shocks from the 2007−2009 financial crisis had only a temporary and relatively small impact on economic growth rates in North Africa.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL ECONOMY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

2020 ◽  
pp. 96-105
Author(s):  
А.К. Сембеков ◽  
О.А. Тян ◽  
Е.Г. Будешов ◽  
A. Sembekov ◽  
O. Tyan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
New Production ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
The Impact

В статье авторами изучены и представлены существующие подходы к трактовки понятия «цифровая экономика», позиции различных ученых в части влияния результатов цифровизации на экономический рост, приведены итоги эмпирических исследований зарубежных ученых и ведущих международных организаций по вопросам оценки влияния цифровой экономики на рост ВВП. В работе обозначены некоторые нерешенные проблемы по измерению цифровой экономики в контексте взаймодействия с «традиционной». В условиях цифровизации, появления совершенно новых цифровых отраслей, изменения экономических отношений «традиционной» экономики становится актуальным теоретическое обоснование процессов, связанных с влиянием цифровой экономики на экономическое развитие, на рост ВВП. Практическое значение исследуемой проблемы крайне актуально для развивающейся национальной экономики Казахстана, ибо цифровая экономика обладает мощным потенциалом для экономического роста, что подтверждает актуальность исследования проблем цифрового роста национальной экономики за счет новых производительных факторов. В статье на основе анализа индексов развития цифровой экономики выявлены закономерности ее влияния на темпы экономического роста Казахстана. Проведение исследования позволило разработать корреляционную модель влияния уровня цифровой экономики на экономический рост Казахстана. In the article, the authors studied and presented the existing approaches to the interpretation of the “digital economy” concept, positions of various scientists regarding the impact of digitalization on economic growth, results of empirical studies of foreign scientists and leading international organizations on assessing the impact of the digital economy on GDP growth. The paper outlines some unresolved issues in measuring digital economy in the context of interacting with the "traditional" one. In the context of digitalization, the emergence of completely new digital industries, changes in the economic relations of the “traditional” economy, the theoretical justification of the processes associated with the influence of the digital economy on economic development and GDP growth becomes relevant. Practical significance of the studied problem is extremely relevant for the developing national economy of Kazakhstan, because digital economy has a powerful potential for economic growth, which confirms the relevance of the study of the problems of digital growth of the national economy due to new production factors. Based on the analysis of the digital economy development indices, the article reveals the patterns of its influence on economic growth rates of Kazakhstan. The study allowed us to develop a correlation model of the influence of the level of development of digital economy on economic growth of Kazakhstan.

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