scholarly journals The impact of nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea

2019 ◽  
pp. 369-370
Author(s):  
Lars Rahm
AMBIO ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (11) ◽  
pp. 1325-1336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alena Bartosova ◽  
René Capell ◽  
Jørgen E. Olesen ◽  
Mohamed Jabloun ◽  
Jens Christian Refsgaard ◽  
...  

Abstract The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.


Ocean Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-134
Author(s):  
Daniel Neumann ◽  
Matthias Karl ◽  
Hagen Radtke ◽  
Volker Matthias ◽  
René Friedland ◽  
...  

Abstract. The western Baltic Sea is impacted by various anthropogenic activities and stressed by high riverine and atmospheric nutrient loads. Atmospheric deposition accounts for up to a third of the nitrogen input into the Baltic Sea and contributes to eutrophication. Amongst other emission sources, the shipping sector is a relevant contributor to the atmospheric concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOX) in marine regions. Thus, it also contributes to atmospheric deposition of bioavailable oxidized nitrogen into the Baltic Sea. In this study, the contribution of shipping emissions to the nitrogen budget in the western Baltic Sea is evaluated with the coupled three-dimensional physical biogeochemical model MOM–ERGOM (Modular Ocean Model–Ecological ReGional Ocean Model) in order to assess the relevance of shipping emissions for eutrophication. The atmospheric input of bioavailable nitrogen impacts eutrophication differently depending on the time and place of input. The shipping sector contributes up to 5 % to the total nitrogen concentrations in the water. The impact of shipping-related nitrogen is highest in the offshore regions distant from the coast in early summer, but its contribution is considerably reduced during blooms of cyanobacteria in late summer because the cyanobacteria fix molecular nitrogen. Although absolute shipping-related total nitrogen concentrations are high in some coastal regions, the relative contribution of the shipping sector is low in the vicinity of the coast because of high riverine nutrient loads.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Neumann ◽  
Matthias Karl ◽  
Hagen Radtke ◽  
Volker Matthias ◽  
René Friedland ◽  
...  

Abstract. The western Baltic Sea is impacted by various anthropogenic activities and stressed by high riverine and atmospheric nutrient loads. Atmospheric deposition accounts for up to a third of the nitrogen input into the Baltic Sea and contributes to eutrophication. Amongst other emission sources, the shipping sector is a relevant contributor to atmospheric concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in marine regions. Thus, it also contributes to atmospheric deposition of bioavailable oxidized nitrogen into the Baltic Sea. In this study, the contribution of shipping emissions to the nitrogen budget in the western Baltic Sea is evaluated with the coupled three-dimensional physical biogeochemical model MOM-ERGOM in order to assess the relevance of shipping emissions for eutrophication. The input of bioavailable nitrogen impacts eutrophication differently depending on time and place of input – e.g. nitrogen is processed and denitrified faster in flat coastal regions. The shipping sector contributes up to 5 % to the total nitrogen concentrations in the water. The impact of shipping-related nitrogen is highest in the off-shore regions distant to the coast in early summer but is considerably reduced during blooms of cyanobacteria in later summer. Although absolute shipping-related total nitrogen concentrations are high in some coastal regions, the relative contribution of the shipping sector is low in the vicinity to the coast because of high riverine nutrient loads.


2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1419-1433 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Schimanke ◽  
H. E. M. Meier ◽  
E. Kjellström ◽  
G. Strandberg ◽  
R. Hordoir

Abstract. Variability and long-term climate change in the Baltic Sea region is investigated for the pre-industrial period of the last millennium. For the first time dynamical downscaling covering the complete millennium is conducted with a regional climate model in this area. As a result of changing external forcing conditions, the model simulation shows warm conditions in the first centuries followed by a gradual cooling until ca. 1700 before temperature increases in the last centuries. This long-term evolution, with a Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and a Little Ice Age (LIA), is in broad agreement with proxy-based reconstructions. However, the timing of warm and cold events is not captured at all times. We show that the regional response to the global climate anomalies is to a strong degree modified by the large-scale circulation in the model. In particular, we find that a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) simulated during MCA contributes to enhancing winter temperatures and precipitation in the region while a negative NAO index in the LIA reduces them. In a second step, the regional ocean model (RCO-SCOBI) is used to investigate the impact of atmospheric changes onto the Baltic Sea for two 100 yr time slices representing the MCA and the LIA. Besides the warming of the Baltic Sea, the water becomes fresher at all levels during the MCA. This is induced by increased runoff and stronger westerly winds. Moreover, the oxygen concentrations in the deep layers are slightly reduced during the MCA. Additional sensitivity studies are conducted to investigate the impact of even higher temperatures and increased nutrient loads. The presented experiments suggest that changing nutrient loads may be more important determining oxygen depletion than changes in temperature or dynamic feedbacks.


2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 1369-1407 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Schimanke ◽  
H. E. M. Meier ◽  
E. Kjellström ◽  
G. Strandberg ◽  
R. Hordoir

Abstract. Variability and long-term climate change in the Baltic Sea region is investigated for the pre-industrial period of the last millennium. For the first time dynamical downscaling covering the complete millennium is conducted with a regional climate model in this area. As a result of changing external forcing conditions the model simulation shows warm conditions in the first centuries followed by a gradual cooling until c. 1700 before temperature increases in the last centuries. This long-term evolution, with a Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and a Little Ice Age (LIA), is in broad agreement with proxy-based reconstructions. However, the timing of warm and cold events is not captured at all times. We show that the regional response to the global climate anomalies is to a strong degree modified by the large-scale circulation in the model. In particular, we find that a positive NAO-phase simulated during MCA contributes to enhancing winter temperatures and precipitation in the region while a negative NAO-anomaly in the LIA reduces them. In a second step, the regional ocean model RCO is used to investigate the impact of atmospheric changes onto the Baltic Sea for two 100 yr time slices representing the MCA and the LIA. Besides the warming of the Baltic Sea the water becomes fresher at all levels during the MCA. This is induced by increased runoff and stronger westerly winds. Moreover, the oxygen concentrations in the deep layers are slightly reduced during the MCA. Additional sensitivity studies are conducted to investigate the impact of even higher temperatures and increased nutrient loads. The presented experiments suggest that changing nutrient loads may be more important determining oxygen depletion than changes in temperature or dynamic feedbacks.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3872
Author(s):  
Julia Tanzer ◽  
Ralf Hermann ◽  
Ludwig Hermann

The Baltic Sea is considered the marine water body most severely affected by eutrophication within Europe. Due to its limited water exchange nutrients have a particularly long residence time in the sea. While several studies have analysed the costs of reducing current nutrient emissions, the costs for remediating legacy nutrient loads of past emissions remain unknown. Although the Baltic Sea is a comparatively well-monitored region, current data and knowledge is insufficient to provide a sound quantification of legacy nutrient loads and much less their abatement costs. A first rough estimation of agricultural legacy nutrient loads yields an accumulation of 0.5–4.0 Mt N and 0.3–1.2 Mt P in the Baltic Sea and 0.4–0.5 Mt P in agricultural soils within the catchment. The costs for removing or immobilising this amount of nutrients via deep water oxygenation, mussel farming and soil gypsum amendment are in the range of few tens to over 100 billion €. These preliminary results are meant as a basis for future studies and show that while requiring serious commitment to funding and implementation, remediating agricultural legacy loads is not infeasible and may even provide economic benefits to local communities in the long run.


2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Fey ◽  
Peter B. Banks ◽  
Hannu Ylönen ◽  
Erkki Korpimäki

Context. Potential mammalian prey commonly use the odours of their co-evolved predators to manage their risks of predation. But when the risk comes from an unknown source of predation, odours might not be perceived as dangerous, and anti-predator responses may fail, except possibly if the alien predator is of the same archetype as a native predator. Aims. In the present study we examined anti-predator behavioural responses of voles from the outer archipelagos of the Baltic Sea, south-western Finland, where they have had no resident mammalian predators in recent history. Methods. We investigated responses of field voles (Microtus agrestis) to odours of native least weasels (Mustela nivalis) and a recently invading alien predator, the American mink (Mustela vison), in laboratory. We also studied the short-term responses of free-ranging field voles and bank voles (Myodes glareolus) to simulated predation risk by alien mink on small islands in the outer archipelago of the Baltic Sea. Key results. In the laboratory, voles avoided odour cues of native weasel but not of alien mink. It is possible that the response to mink is a context dependent learned response which could not be induced in the laboratory, whereas the response to weasel is innate. In the field, however, voles reduced activity during their normal peak-activity times at night as a response to simulated alien-mink predation risk. No other shifts in space use or activity in safer microhabitats or denser vegetation were apparent. Conclusions. Voles appeared to recognise alien minks as predators from their odours in the wild. However, reduction in activity is likely to be only a short-term immediate response to mink presence, which is augmented by longer-term strategies of habitat shift. Because alien mink still strongly suppresses vole dynamics despite these anti-predator responses, we suggest that behavioural naiveté may be the primary factor in the impact of an alien predator on native prey. Implications. Prey naiveté has long been considered as the root cause of the devastating impacts of alien predators, whereby native prey simply fail to recognise and respond to the novel predation risk. Our results reveal a more complex form of naiveté whereby native prey appeared to recognise alien predators as a threat but their response is ultimately inadequate. Thus, recognition alone is unlikely to afford protection for native prey from alien-predator impacts. Thus, management strategies that, for example, train prey in recognition of novel threats must induce effective responses if they are expected to succeed.


2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 440-459 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. HYYTIÄINEN ◽  
H. AHTIAINEN ◽  
J. HEIKKILÄ

This study introduces a prototype model for evaluating measures to abate agricultural nutrients in the Baltic Sea from a Finnish national perspective. The stochastic simulation model integrates nutrient dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus in the sea basins adjoining the Finnish coast, nutrient loads from land and other sources, benefits from nutrient abatement (in the form of recreation and other ecosystem services) and the costs of agricultural abatement activities. The aim of the study is to present the overall structure of the model and to demonstrate its potential using preliminary parameters. The model is made flexible for further improvements in all of its ecological and economic components. The results of a sensitivity analysis suggest that investments in reducing the nutrient load from arable land in Finland would become profitable only if the neighboring countries in the northern Baltic committed themselves to similar reductions. Environmental investments for improving water quality yield the highest returns for the Bothnian Bay and the Gulf of Finland, with smaller returns for the Bothnian Sea. Somewhat surprisingly, in the Bothnian Bay the abatement activities become profitable from the national viewpoint, because the riverine loads from Finland represent a high proportion of the total nutrient loads. In the Gulf of Finland, this proportion is low, but the size of the coastal population benefiting from improved water quality is high.;


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