Was the Joke on the Democrats Again? Turnout and Partisan Choice in the 2004 U.S. Election

The peak turnout rate in the 2004 presidential election highlights an important question for students of electoral participation: Did the higher levels of turnout advantage one of the two major party candidates? In this paper, we analyze state and county-level presidential and gubernatorial election results in 2000 and 2004, and find that Bush won the presidential election in spite of, rather than because of, the increase in turnout. The partisan effects of turnout varied across gubernatorial elections, and we found no evidence that local partisan minorities benefited from higher levels of turnout.

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Understanding Michigan's Electoral Competitiveness: Swing Counties 1976-2018

Michigan Academician ◽

10.7245/0026-2005-47.2.173 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 47 (2) ◽

pp. 173-201

Author(s):

JOHN S. KLEMANSKI ◽

DAVID A. DULIO ◽

DOUGLAS A. CARR

Keyword(s):

Voting Behavior ◽

Barack Obama ◽

County Level ◽

Major Focus ◽

Donald Trump ◽

Media Attention ◽

Election Results ◽

Gubernatorial Election ◽

The U.S ◽

Electoral Competitiveness

ABSTRACT Considerable media attention was given to the so-called “pivot counties” in the U.S. and in Michigan that flipped from supporting Barack Obama twice to voting for Donald Trump in 2016. We first summarize theories of voting behavior and speculate about why Michigan has been consistently competitive over the years. We explore 40 years' worth of county-level presidential and gubernatorial election results in Michigan to determine how frequently counties have flipped across a large number of elections. We find that a number of Michigan counties frequently flip between elections, but the number of competitive Michigan counties has substantially declined in recent decades. Turnout in larger counties can affect election outcomes, and large counties that swing have been key bellwethers in past elections, and should be a major focus of research on future elections in Michigan.

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The Wolf Is Really upon Us Now

Union Indivisible ◽

10.5149/northcarolina/9781469633787.003.0004 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Michael D. Robinson

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Abraham Lincoln ◽

Political Activity ◽

Political Polarization ◽

The Political ◽

Middle Ground ◽

Close Inspection ◽

Close Analysis ◽

Election Results ◽

Gubernatorial Election

This chapter probes the presidential contest of 1860 between four major candidates: Democrat Stephen Douglas; Southern Democrat John C. Breckinridge; Republican Abraham Lincoln; and Constitutional Unionist John Bell. The chapter demonstrates that in spite of the political polarization within the nation and the ill-effects of John Brown’s raid, the moderate, middle ground political outlook of most white border southerners remarkably endured. The chapter contains a close inspection of each major party’s political activity within the Border South in the months before the election of 1860. It also includes a close analysis of the election results in both the presidential election and the 1860 Missouri gubernatorial election to demonstrate the staying power of the Border South’s moderate political notion.

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Political Advertising and Persuasion in the 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections

American Politics Research ◽

10.1177/1532673x09353507 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 38 (2) ◽

pp. 303-329 ◽

Cited By ~ 31

Author(s):

Michael M. Franz ◽

Travis N. Ridout

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Presidential Elections ◽

Public Funding ◽

Vice President ◽

Political Advertising ◽

The Other ◽

County Level ◽

Major Party ◽

2008 Presidential Election ◽

The Impact

The 2008 presidential election was historic in many respects. The campaign included the first African American major-party candidate, and neither candidate was an incumbent president or vice president. In addition, one candidate took public funding and the other candidate did not. This latter disparity resulted in an imbalance of resources across the two campaigns, especially in the purchase of political advertising. But did that imbalance matter for who won? Did advertising move voters, and if so, by how much? This article examines patterns of presidential ad buys in 2008 and compares them with presidential ad buys in 2004. It also examines the impact of advertising on county-level vote returns in both years. The results demonstrate some important differences in advertising patterns across years, especially in terms of ad sponsorship and market-level advertising advantages. We also find significant and strong advertising persuasion effects in 2008.

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Traditional loyalties may crumble in Mexico in 2018

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db211684 ◽

2016 ◽

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

The State ◽

Gubernatorial Elections ◽

Content Type ◽

Preliminary Results ◽

Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽

Revolutionary Party ◽

Democratic Revolution ◽

Election Results ◽

Leftist Party

Subject The June 5 state election results. Significance According to preliminary results, President Enrique Pena Nieto's ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) won only five of the twelve state gubernatorial elections held on June 5. In contrast, the conservative opposition National Action Party (PAN) won seven -- four on its own and three in coalition with the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), which did not obtain a single governorship by itself. The radical, leftist National Regeneration Movement (Morena) performed particularly well in Veracruz and Zacatecas, where it won between one-quarter and one-third of the vote, although it did not win any governorships. Impacts Alliances of ideological opposites PAN and PRD are electorally effective and may see them win the State of Mexico in 2017. Nevertheless, the PAN will have little incentive to join forces with a weak PRD for the presidential election in 2018. While Morena did not win any governorship, leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is now well positioned ahead of 2018.

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Arrhythmia Risk During the 2016 US Presidential Election: The Cost of Stressful Politics

Journal of the American Heart Association ◽

10.1161/jaha.120.020559 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Lindsey Rosman ◽

Elena Salmoirago‐Blotcher ◽

Rafat Mahmood ◽

Hannan Yang ◽

Quefeng Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Atrial Fibrillation ◽

Cardiac Arrhythmias ◽

Presidential Election ◽

Control Period ◽

Political Affiliation ◽

County Level ◽

Extreme Stress ◽

Cardiac Devices ◽

Us Presidential Election ◽

Election Results

Background Anger and extreme stress can trigger potentially fatal cardiovascular events in susceptible people. Political elections, such as the 2016 US presidential election, are significant stressors. Whether they can trigger cardiac arrhythmias is unknown. Methods and Results In this retrospective case‐crossover study, we linked cardiac device data, electronic health records, and historic voter registration records from 2436 patients with implanted cardiac devices. The incidence of arrhythmias during the election was compared with a control period with Poisson regression. We also tested for effect modification by demographics, comorbidities, political affiliation, and whether an individual's political affiliation was concordant with county‐level election results. Overall, 2592 arrhythmic events occurred in 655 patients during the hazard period compared with 1533 events in 472 patients during the control period. There was a significant increase in the incidence of composite outcomes for any arrhythmia (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.77 [95% CI, 1.42–2.21]), supraventricular arrhythmia (IRR, 1.82 [95% CI, 1.36–2.43]), and ventricular arrhythmia (IRR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.22–2.10]) during the election relative to the control period. There was also an increase in specific types of arrhythmia, including atrial fibrillation (IRR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.06–2.11]), supraventricular tachycardia (IRR, 3.7 [95% CI, 2.2–6.2]), nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (IRR, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.3–2.2]), and daily atrial fibrillation burden ( P <0.001). No significant interaction was found for sex, race/ethnicity, device type, age ≥65 years, hypertension, coronary artery disease, heart failure, political affiliation, or concordance between individual political affiliation and county‐level election results. Conclusions There was a significant increase in cardiac arrhythmias during the 2016 US presidential election. These findings suggest that exposure to stressful sociopolitical events may trigger arrhythmogenesis in susceptible people.

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