Understanding Michigan's Electoral Competitiveness: Swing Counties 1976-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-201
Author(s):  
JOHN S. KLEMANSKI ◽  
DAVID A. DULIO ◽  
DOUGLAS A. CARR
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
County Level ◽  
Major Focus ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Media Attention ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Gubernatorial Election ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Electoral Competitiveness

ABSTRACT Considerable media attention was given to the so-called “pivot counties” in the U.S. and in Michigan that flipped from supporting Barack Obama twice to voting for Donald Trump in 2016. We first summarize theories of voting behavior and speculate about why Michigan has been consistently competitive over the years. We explore 40 years' worth of county-level presidential and gubernatorial election results in Michigan to determine how frequently counties have flipped across a large number of elections. We find that a number of Michigan counties frequently flip between elections, but the number of competitive Michigan counties has substantially declined in recent decades. Turnout in larger counties can affect election outcomes, and large counties that swing have been key bellwethers in past elections, and should be a major focus of research on future elections in Michigan.

The Discourse of Turkish Press on 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections and the Inauguration of Donald Trump

2019 ◽  
pp. 161-187
Author(s):  
Rengim Sine Nazli ◽  
Kemal Avci
Keyword(s):  
Critical Discourse Analysis ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Critical Discourse ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
News Reports ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The World ◽  
The Media ◽  
The U.S

Academic studies that form the basis of critical paradigm are collected around the theme of “ideological mediation of texts in the media.” These studies focus on the news reports as the most influential products of the media. The aforementioned studies emphasize that objectivity, which is the leading notion in traditional journalism, is shaped in favor of the involved parties, and therefore examine the discourse of the news with the aim of revealing these aspects by utilizing a number of methods. This study analyzed how the week following the U.S. Presidential election held on November 8, 2016 and won by Donald Trump; and the week after Trump's inauguration and taking of office after President Barack Obama on January 20, 2017 were portrayed in Turkish newspapers holding different ideological stances. The study utilized van Dijk's Critical Discourse Analysis Method. The front pages of newspapers with different ideological stances such as Sözcü, Sabah and Hürriyet newspapers were taken as the samples of the study. The study results pointed that newspapers shaped their news in line with their ideological expectations as was the case in Sabah newspaper sample. It was also observed that Trump was reported as the boss of the world, the richest US president, racist, Islamophobic and nationalist in other two newspapers included in the study.

Update on Conflict and Diplomacy

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 121-159
Author(s):  
Paul Karolyi
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
International Peace ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Tel Aviv ◽  
French Government ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
The U.S

This update summarizes bilateral, multilateral, regional, and international events affecting the Palestinians and the future of the peace process. It covers the quarter beginning on 16 November 2016 and ending on 15 February 2017. Neither the Palestinians nor the Israelis made any efforts to resume peace negotiations this quarter. The Palestinians opted to coordinate with outgoing U.S. president Barack Obama on UN Security Council resolution 2334 condemning Israeli settlements, while the Israelis pressed incoming U.S. president Donald Trump for a new regional peace approach. U.S. secretary of state John Kerry presented six principles for a Palestinian-Israeli peace deal, and the French government hosted an international peace conference in Paris. Trump took office in January and began backpedaling on his pledge to move the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Meanwhile, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu continued his efforts to marginalize the Palestinian minority and political opponents in Israel in order to placate the fury of his ruling coalition's ultranationalists over the evacuation of Amona, an illegal settlement outpost. Settler movement leaders used their leverage with Netanyahu to pass a sweeping new bill in the Knesset retroactively legalizing such settlement outposts.

scholarly journals Was the Joke on the Democrats Again? Turnout and Partisan Choice in the 2004 U.S. Election

2007 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 81-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Martinez ◽  
David Hill
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
County Level ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Major Party ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
Turnout Rate ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Gubernatorial Election ◽  
2004 Presidential Election

The peak turnout rate in the 2004 presidential election highlights an important question for students of electoral participation: Did the higher levels of turnout advantage one of the two major party candidates? In this paper, we analyze state and county-level presidential and gubernatorial election results in 2000 and 2004, and find that Bush won the presidential election in spite of, rather than because of, the increase in turnout. The partisan effects of turnout varied across gubernatorial elections, and we found no evidence that local partisan minorities benefited from higher levels of turnout.

scholarly journals Partisan differences in physical distancing are linked to health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anton Gollwitzer ◽  
Cameron Martel ◽  
William J. Brady ◽  
Philip Pärnamets ◽  
Isaac Freedman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Median Income ◽  
County Level ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Fox News ◽  
Conservative Media ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time

Numerous polls suggest that COVID-19 is a profoundly partisan issue in the U.S. Using the geotracking data of 15 million smartphones per day, we found that U.S. counties that voted for Donald Trump (Republican) over Hillary Clinton (Democrat) in the 2016 presidential election exhibited 14% less physical distancing between March and May 2020. Partisanship was more strongly associated with physical distancing than numerous factors, including counties’ median income, COVID-19 cases, population density, and racial and age demographics. Contrary to our predictions, the observed partisan gap strengthened over time and remained when stay-at-home orders were active. Additionally, county-level consumption of conservative media (Fox News) related to reduced physical distancing. Finally, the observed partisan differences in distancing were associated with subsequently higher COVID-19 infection and fatality growth rates in pro-Trump counties. Taken together, these data suggest that U.S. citizens’ responses to COVID-19 are subject to a deep—and consequential—partisan divide.

Palestine Unbound

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 130-134
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Task Force ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Tel Aviv ◽  
The Us ◽  
Intention To Move ◽  
Arab Israeli Conflict ◽  
The U.S

This section, updated regularly on the blog Palestine Square, covers popular conversations related to the Palestinians and the Arab-Israeli conflict during the quarter 16 November 2017 to 15 February 2018: #JerusalemIstheCapitalofPalestine went viral after U.S. president Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and announced his intention to move the U.S. embassy there from Tel Aviv. The arrest of Palestinian teenager Ahed Tamimi for slapping an Israeli soldier also prompted a viral campaign under the hashtag #FreeAhed. A smaller campaign protested the exclusion of Palestinian human rights from the agenda of the annual Creating Change conference organized by the US-based National LGBTQ Task Force in Washington. And, UNRWA publicized its emergency funding appeal, following the decision of the United States to slash funding to the organization, with the hashtag #DignityIsPriceless.

Helter Skelter or All Together Now: Beatles songs associated with the last 2 U.S. presidents.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ger Rijkers
Keyword(s):  
Barack Obama ◽  
Donald Trump

With the aid of the Nexis Uni database of newspaper, magazine and online articles, an analysis was made of Beatles songs associated with either Barack Obama or Donald Trump. The Beatles song most often associated with Donald Trump is "Helter Skelter", for Barack Obama this is "All Together Now"

Comparative analysis of the trade policy of Barack Obama and Donald Trump

2020 ◽  
pp. 59-71
Author(s):  
V. Iordanova ◽  
A. Ananev
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Scientific Article ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Entire World

The authors of this scientific article conducted a comparative analysis of the trade policy of US presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump. The article states that the tightening of trade policy by the current President is counterproductive and has a serious impact not only on the economic development of the United States, but also on the entire world economy as a whole.

Meddling in the Ballot Box

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dov H. Levin
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
Archival Research ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Level Analysis ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Scholarly Attention

This book examines why partisan electoral interventions occur as well as their effects on the election results in countries in which the great powers intervened. A new dataset shows that the U.S. and the USSR/Russia have intervened in one out of every nine elections between 1946 and 2000 in other countries in order to help or hinder one of the candidates or parties; the Russian intervention in the 2016 U.S. elections is just the latest example. Nevertheless, electoral interventions receive scant scholarly attention. This book develops a new theoretical model to answer both questions. It argues that electoral interventions are usually “inside jobs,” occurring only if a significant domestic actor within the target wants it. Likewise, electoral interventions won’t happen unless the intervening country fears its interests are endangered by another significant party or candidate with very different and inflexible preferences. As for the effects it argues that such meddling usually gives a significant boost to the preferred side, with overt interventions being more effective than covert ones in this regard. However, unlike in later elections, electoral interventions in founding elections usually harm the aided side. A multi-method framework is used in order to study these questions, including in-depth archival research into six cases in which the U.S. seriously considered intervening, the statistical analysis of the aforementioned dataset (PEIG), and a micro-level analysis of election surveys from three intervention cases. It also includes a preliminary analysis of the Russian intervention in the 2016 U.S. elections and the cyber-future of such meddling in general.

scholarly journals Europe Abhors Donald Trump: The Opinion on the 2020 U.S. Presidential Elections and Their Candidates in the European Newspapers

2021 ◽  
pp. 000276422110055
Author(s):  
Marçal Sintes-Olivella ◽  
Pere Franch ◽  
Elena Yeste-Piquer ◽  
Klaus Zilles
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Methodology ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Presidential Debates ◽  
White House ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
European Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Common ◽  
The U.S

What is the opinion held by the European press on the U.S. election campaign and the candidates running for president? What are the predominant issues that attract the attention of European print media? Does Europe detest Donald Trump? The objective of the present study is to analyze the perception European commentators had of the 2020 race for the White House. The media, the audience, and European governments were captivated more than ever before by how the U.S. election campaign unfolded, fixing their gaze on the contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Through a combined quantitative and qualitative methodology, a combination of content analysis and the application of framing theory (hitherto scarcely applied to opinion pieces), our research centers on exploring the views, opinions, and analyses published in eight leading newspapers from four European countries (France, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom) as expressed in their editorials and opinion articles. This study observes how the televised presidential debates were commented on, interpreted, and assessed by commentators from the eight newspapers we selected. The goal was to identify the common issues and frames that affected European public opinion on the U.S. presidential campaign and the aspirants to the White House.

Party Messaging in the U.S. House of Representatives

2021 ◽  
pp. 106591292110297
Author(s):  
Tyler Hughes ◽  
Gregory Koger
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Substantive Content ◽  
Legislative Agenda ◽  
The Media ◽  
Party Members ◽  
The U.S

Both Congressional parties compete to promote their own reputations while damaging the opposition party’s brand. This behavior affects both policy-making agendas and the party members’ communications with the media and constituents. While there has been ample study of partisan influence on legislative agenda-setting and roll call voting behavior, much less is known about the parties’ efforts to shape the public debate. This paper analyzes two strategic decisions of parties: the timing of collective efforts to influence the public policy debate and the substantive content of these “party messaging” events. These dynamics are analyzed using a unique dataset of 50,195 one-minute speeches delivered on the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1989 to 2016. We find a pattern of strategic matching—both parties are more likely to engage in concurrent messaging efforts, often on the same issue.

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