scholarly journals Social distancing in São Paulo State: demonstrating the reduction in cases using time series analysis of deaths due to COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Henrique de Brito Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The Social ◽  
Isolation Index ◽  
São Paulo State

ABSTRACT: Introduction: Demonstrating the results of Social Distancing Strategies (SDS) became a relevant factor to obtain support by the population in São Paulo State and in Brazil. The delay in the processing of PCR tests and the small number of tests available limits the ability of sanitary authorities to make meaningful data available as to the number of cases or the number of deaths due to COVID-19. Methodology: We use a time series analysis of deaths due to COVID-19 referenced to the date of deaths (as opposed to the date in which the test results were obtained). Results: We demonstrate that the SDS adopted in São Paulo City and State clearly brought meaningful results to delay the growth of COVID-19 cases. We also show that by using this type of time series it is possible to identify different trends for regions, allowing for targeted approaches. Additionally, by using a time series which is death-oriented makes it possible to identify, for São Paulo City, the effects of the SDS with the Social Isolation Index (SII) adopted in the state and to make a gross estimate for the SII, which prevents the growth of the disease. Conclusion: The use of a time series of deaths due to COVID-19 referenced to the date of the event allows a better understanding of the effects of the SDS on the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic in São Paulo State, Brazil.

scholarly journals Impact of nonpharmaceutical strategies on trends of COVID-19 in São Paulo State

2021 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
Cristiane Ravagnani Fortaleza ◽  
Thomas Nogueira Vilches ◽  
Gabriel Berg de Almeida ◽  
Claudia Pio Ferreira ◽  
Lenice do Rosário de Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
São Paulo State ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mandatory Use

Interrupted time series analyses were conducted to measure the impact of social distancing policies (instituted on March 22, 2020) and of subsequent mandatory masking in the community (instituted on May 4, 2020) on the incidence and effective reproductive number of COVID-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil. Overall, the impact of social distancing both on incidence and Rt was greater than the incremental effect of mandatory masking. Those findings may reflect either a small impact of face masking or the loosening of social distancing after mandatory use of masks.

scholarly journals Spatial Microsimulation Combined with Skater Regionalization Methods: A Study for the Paraíba Valley and North Coast Metropolitan Region Subregion 4 in the São Paulo State

2020 ◽  
Vol 72 (4) ◽  
pp. 713-726
Author(s):  
Gabriela Carvalho de Oliveira ◽  
Tathiane Mayumi Anazawa ◽  
Antonio Miguel Vieira Monteiro
Keyword(s):  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
North Coast ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Iterative Proportional Fitting ◽  
Socioeconomic Groups ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
The Social ◽  
Spatial Microsimulation ◽  
São Paulo State

This study analyzes the socio-occupational distribution in the Paraíba Valley and North Coast Metropolitan Region (in Portuguese: Região Metropolitana do Vale do Paraíba e Litoral Norte – RMVPLN) Subregion 4 using spatial microsimulation techniques. To fulfill the proposed objective, the Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) technique was used to obtain spatial microdata in the territorial census tracts unit through the 2010 Brazilian Demographic Census. After the Skater regionalization technique was applied, eight homogeneous socio-occupational groups were found. Overall, the proposed socio-occupational categories, studied at an intra-urban scale, allowed for highlighting the social structure on a subregion of the newest Metropolitan space in the São Paulo state. Although this is a preliminary study, it is already capable to identify inequalities degrees that consistently spatially segregate and the less privileged population socioeconomic groups.

Trends in the use of psychoactive substances by truck drivers in São Paulo State, Brazil: A time-series cross sectional roadside survey (2009–2016)

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 122-127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vilma Leyton ◽  
Henrique Silva Bombana ◽  
Juliana Gallottini Magalhães ◽  
Helena Nascimento Panizza ◽  
Daniele Mayumi Sinagawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Truck Drivers ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Psychoactive Substances ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
Roadside Survey ◽  
São Paulo State

scholarly journals The impact of the social distancing policy on COVID-19 new cases in Iran: insights from an interrupted time series analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahboubeh Khaton Ghanbari ◽  
Meysam Behzadifar ◽  
Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab ◽  
Masoud Behzadifar ◽  
Ahad Bakhtiari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Infectious Agent ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
P Value ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background In late December 2019, a viral outbreak occurred in Wuhan, province of Hubei, People’s Republic of China, and rapidly spread out worldwide. The infectious agent was identified and termed as SARS-CoV-2, responsible of the “coronavirus disease 19” (COVID-19). Due to the lack of vaccines and effective drugs for this disease, many policy- and decision-makers have focused on non-pharmacological methods to prevent and control this disease. Social distancing can be effective in reducing the spread of the outbreak. This study was aimed at assessing the effects of the implementation of the social distancing policy in Iran, one of the countries most affected by the COVID-19. Methods This study was designed as a quasi-experimental study, and was conducted utilizing the interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) approach. Daily data was collected between February 20th 2020 and April 16th 2020. The social distancing policy was launched on March 27th 2020.Results A significant decrease of -288.57 (95% CI: 269.08 (95% CI: -83.37 to -621.55, P-value=0.04) new confirmed cases following the implementation of the social distancing policy was found, corresponding to a daily decrease in the trend of -8.10 (95% CI: -10.02 to -6.19, P-value=0.001). A significant decrease of -24.78 (95% CI: -42.97 to -6.58, P-value=0.01) new deaths following the implementation of the social distancing policy could be found, corresponding to a daily decrease in the trend of -8.10 (95% CI: -10.02 to -6.19, P-value=0.001). Conclusion The growth rate of new cases and deaths from the COVID-19 in Iran has significantly decreased after the implementation of social distancing. By monitoring and implementing this policy in all countries, the burden of COVID-19 can be mitigated.

scholarly journals Suicide and meteorological factors in São Paulo, Brazil, 1996-2011: a time series analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 220-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel H. Bando ◽  
Chei T. Teng ◽  
Fernando M. Volpe ◽  
Eduardo de Masi ◽  
Luiz A. Pereira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Series Analysis

scholarly journals INFLUENCIA DAS QUEIMADAS NO COMPORTAMENTO DAS CHUVAS NOS MUNICIPIOS DE BOTUCATU E PIRACICABA, ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO

Irriga ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 168-178
Author(s):  
Juan Manuel Fernández Lorenzo ◽  
Erico Tadao Teramoto ◽  
Rodrigo Maximo Sánchez-Roman ◽  
Alba Maria Guadalupe Orellana González ◽  
João Francisco Escobedo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
São Paulo State ◽  
Annual Volume ◽  
Second Period

INFLUENCIA DAS QUEIMADAS NO COMPORTAMENTO DAS CHUVAS NOS MUNICIPIOS DE BOTUCATU E PIRACICABA, ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO JUAN MANUEL FERNÁNDEZ LORENZO¹; ÉRICO TADAO TERAMOTO²; RODRIGO MÁXIMO SÁNCHEZ-ROMÁN²; ALBA MARIA GUADALUPE ORELLANA GONZÁLEZ² E JOÃO FRANCISCO ESCOBEDO2 ¹ Facultad de Geografía, Universidad de La Habana, Calle L, Edificio Mella Vedado, ciudad de La Habana, Cuba. Email: [email protected]² Departamento de Engenharia Rural, FCA/UNESP-Botucatu/SP, Fazenda Lageado, Rua José Barbosa de Barros, nº 1780, CEP 18.610-307 - Botucatu, SP. Email: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected].  1 RESUMO O presente trabalho utilizou séries temporais de precipitação pluvial medidas nas estações meteorológicas da FCA/UNESP-Botucatu(1971-2013) e da ESALQ/USP-Piracicaba (1980-2012), ambas localizadas no Estado de São Paulo, com o objetivo de verificar a possível existência de tendências (aumento ou diminuição) que podem estar relacionadas com as queimadas que ocorrem em alguns estados Brasileiros. A queima de biomassa é capaz de influência a nebulosidade e a precipitação, pois gera aerossóis que  atuam como núcleos de condensação de nuvens (NCN). As séries temporais de ambos os municípios mantiveram um padrão comum de comportamento e nelas pode-se determinar a existência de rupturas que evidenciam a existência de três períodos distintos. O primeiro período foi do inicio das séries (1971 em Botucatu e 1980 em Piracicaba) até 1983, o segundo período foi de 1984 a 2008 e o terceiro período de 2009 até 2012 e 2013. No segundo período houve uma tendência de redução no volume anual de precipitação pluvial. A ocorrência dos três períodos distintos está relacionada com a mudança do uso do solo no Estado de São Paulo, com a expansão das fronteiras agrícolas no norte e centro-oeste do Brasil e com a pratica da queima de biomassa. Palavras-chave: análise de tendência, regressão linear, aerossóis, mudanças climáticas.  LORENZO, J. M. F.; TERAMOTO, E. T.; SÁNCHEZ-ROMÁN, R. M.; GONZÁLEZ, A. M. G. O.; ESCOBEDO, J. F.INFLUENCE OF BURNINGS IN THE BEHAVIOUR OF RAINFALLS IN THE CITIES OF BOTUCATU AND PIRACICABA, SÃO PAULO STATE  2 ABSTRACT This work used the time series of rainfall measured in the meteorological stations of  FCA/UNESP-Botucatu (1971-2013) and of ESALQ/USP-Piracicaba (1980-2012), both located in São Paulo State, aims to verify the possible existence of trends (increase or decrease). Biomass burning can to influence the cloudiness and the rainfall, because it generates aerosols that act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The time series of both cities maintained a similar pattern in the behavior and disruptions that revealed the existence of three distinct periods that can be related to burnings that occur in some Brazilian states. The first period is from the beginning of the series (1971 in Botucatu and 1980 in Piracicaba) to 1983, second period is from 1984 to 2008 and third period is from 2009 to 2012 or 2013. In the second period there was a tendency of reduction in the annual volume of rainfall. The occurrence of the three distinct periods are related to land use change in São Paulo State, to expansion of the agricultural frontier in the northern and middle-western Brazil and to increase in the practice of biomass burning. Keywods: trend test, linear regression, aerosols, climate change.

scholarly journals Interesse e desinteresse no magistério oficial paulista (1902-1910)

2019 ◽  
Vol 80 (194) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilson Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Key Words ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Economic Dimension ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
The Sublime ◽  
The Social ◽  
De Se ◽  
São Paulo State

A partir da análise dos textos publicados na Revista de Ensino, publicada pela Associação Beneficente do Professorado Público de São Paulo, pretende demonstrar que a alquimia simbólica de se mostrar convenientemente desinteressado e de proclamar o desinteresse adquiriu, para o campo educacional, a forma específica da ocultação do interesse em nome de valores sublimes, expressa numa recusa, ora velada, ora explícita, da dimensão econômica da vida social. Essa foi uma forma de estratégia adequada aos jogos propriamente simbólicos praticados no Estado de São Paulo, durante o processo de constituição e autonomização do campo educacional. Palavras-chave: interesse; valores; profissão docente; campo educacional. Abstract Based on the analysis of some articles published in Revista de Ensino, organ from the São Paulo Public Teaching Charity Association, this study aims to demonstrate that the symbolic alchemy of showing conveniently a detachment and to proclaim disinterest obtained, for the educational area, the specific feature of the hidden interest in name of the sublime values, expressed in a refusal either veiled or clear, of the social life economic dimension. It was a strategic way suitable to the properly symbolic games practiced, in São Paulo State, during the constitution and autonomization process of the educational area. Key-words: interest; value, academician; educational area.

scholarly journals Impact of nonpharmaceutical governmental strategies for prevention and control of COVID-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristiane Ravagnani Fortaleza ◽  
Thomas Nogueira Vilches ◽  
Gabriel Berg de Almeida ◽  
Claudia Pio Ferreira ◽  
Rejane Maria Tommasini Grotto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
São Paulo State ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Interrupted time series analyses (ITSA) were performed to measure the impact of social distancing policies (instituted 22/03/2020) and subsequent mandatory masking in the community (instituted 04/05/2020) on the incidence and effective reproductive number (Rt) of COVID-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil. Overall, the impact of social distancing both on incidence and Rt was greater than the incremental effect of mandatory masking. Those findings may reflect either a small impact of face masking or the loosening of social distancing after mandatory use of masks.

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