scholarly journals Spatial forecasting of red palm mite in Brazil under current and future climate change scenarios

2016 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 586-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denise Navia ◽  
Emília Hamada ◽  
Manoel Guedes Correa Gondim Jr. ◽  
Norton Polo Benito
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Red Palm Mite

Abstract: The objective of this work was to predict the spatial distribution of the red palm mite, Raoiella indica (Acari: Tenuipalpidae), in Brazil under current and future climate change scenarios. A mapping method of species distribution based on the geographic information system (GIS) was used. The maps were constructed taking into account ranges of favorability for temperature and relative humidity. Favorability levels were defined considering the available information on pest biology and population dynamics. To characterize the current climatic conditions, information was referenced to the climate normal from 1961 to 1990. Future scenarios for the models were the A2 and B1 gas emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, focusing on the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The constructed maps showed that, for the reference period, Brazil presents extensive areas with favorable or very favorable conditions for the establishment of red palm mite populations. An increasing favorability was observed for future scenarios when compared with the reference period, indicating that the pest impact will worsen if it is already widely spread and causing damage in the country. Under current and future climate scenarios, most of the favorable and very favorable areas for red palm mite are in northeastern Brazil.

scholarly journals Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teng Long ◽  
Junfeng Tang ◽  
Nicholas Pilfold ◽  
Xuzhe Zhao ◽  
Tingfa Dong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Annual Range

Understanding and predicting how species will response to future climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we conducted an assessment of future climate change impacts on the distribution of D. involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one-third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high-latitude regions. These findings suggest that it is of great urgent and significance to adaptive management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.

scholarly journals Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Okjeong Lee ◽  
Yoonkyung Park ◽  
Eung Seok Kim ◽  
Sangdan Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Projection Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Point Temperature ◽  
Dew Point Temperature ◽  
Temperature Projection

According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) are very likely to increase.

Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina

Zootaxa ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 4237 (1) ◽  
pp. 91 ◽  
Author(s):  
IGNACIO MINOLI ◽  
LUCIANO JAVIER AVILA
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Use ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Lizard Species ◽  
Restricted Use

The consequences of global climate change can already be seen in many physical and biological systems and these effects could change the distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms to the middle of this century. We analyzed the current habitat use and we projected the suitable area of present conditions into the geographical space of future scenarios (2050), to assess and quantify whether future climate change would affect the distribution and size of suitable environments in two Pristidactylus lizard species. Comparing the habitat use and future forecasts of the two studied species, P. achalensis showed a more restricted use of available resource units (RUs) and a moderate reduction of the potential future area. On the contrary, P. nigroiugulus uses more available RUs and has a considerable area decrease for both future scenarios. These results suggest that both species have a moderately different trend towards reducing available area of suitable habitats, the persistent localities for both 2050 CO2 concentration models, and in the available RUs used. We discussed the relation between size and use of the current habitat, changes in future projections along with the protected areas from present-future and the usefulness of these results in conservation plans. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their availability suitable areas as a consequence of the effect of future climate change.  

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Hevellyn Talissa dos Santos ◽  
Cesar Augusto Marchioro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Dependent Development ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

scholarly journals Alaskan soil carbon stocks: spatial variability and dependence on environmental factors

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 5695-5718 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. Mishra ◽  
W. J. Riley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Active Layer ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Soil Wetness ◽  
Soc Stocks

Abstract. The direction and magnitude of soil organic carbon (SOC) changes in response to climate change depend on the spatial and vertical distributions of SOC. We estimated spatially-resolved SOC stocks from surface to C horizon, distinguishing active-layer and permafrost-layer stocks, based on geospatial analysis of 472 soil profiles and spatially referenced environmental variables for Alaska. Total Alaska state-wide SOC stock was estimated to be 77 Pg, with 61% in the active-layer, 27% in permafrost, and 12% in non-permafrost soils. Prediction accuracy was highest for the active-layer as demonstrated by highest ratio of performance to deviation (1.5). Large spatial variability was predicted, with whole-profile, active-layer, and permafrost-layer stocks ranging from 1–296 kg C m−2, 2–166 kg m−2, and 0–232 kg m−2, respectively. Temperature and soil wetness were found to be primary controllers of whole-profile, active-layer, and permafrost-layer SOC stocks. Secondary controllers, in order of importance, were: land cover type, topographic attributes, and bedrock geology. The observed importance of soil wetness rather than precipitation on SOC stocks implies that the poor representation of high-latitude soil wetness in Earth System Models may lead to large uncertainty in predicted SOC stocks under future climate change scenarios. Under strict caveats described in the text and assuming temperature changes from the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenario, our geospatial model indicates that the equilibrium average 2100 Alaska active-layer depth could deepen by 11 cm, resulting in a thawing of 13 Pg C currently in permafrost. The equilibrium SOC loss associated with this warming would be highest under continuous permafrost (31%), followed by discontinuous (28%), isolated (24.3%), and sporadic (23.6%) permafrost areas. Our high resolution mapping of soil carbon stock reveals the potential vulnerability of high-latitude soil carbon and can be used as a basis for future studies of anthropogenic and climatic perturbations.

Study on runoff simulation of the upstream of Minjiang River under future climate change scenarios

2014 ◽  
Vol 75 (S2) ◽  
pp. 139-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shifeng Huang ◽  
Wenbin Zang ◽  
Mei Xu ◽  
Xiaotao Li ◽  
Xuecheng Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Minjiang River ◽  
Upstream Of Minjiang River

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

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