Predicting the Hydrological Impacts of Future Climate Change in a Humid-Subtropical Watershed

Future climate change is expected to impact the natural systems. This study used future climate data of general circulation models (GCMs) to investigate the impacts of climate change during the future period (2062–2095) relative to the historical period (1981–2014) on the hydrological system of the Minjiang river watershed, China. A previously calibrated soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the future hydrology under the impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration for four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2, 3, and 5) of the CMIP6. The study revealed that the impacts of increase in future temperature, i.e., increase in ET, and decrease in surface runoff, water, and sediment yield will be countered by increased atmospheric [CO2], and changes in the hydrological parameters in the future will be mostly associated to changes in precipitation. Data of the GCMs for all the SSPs predicts increase in precipitation of the watershed, which will cause increase in surface runoff, water yield, and sediment yield. Surface runoff will increase more in SSP 5 (47%), while sediment and water yield will increase more in SSP 1, by 33% and 23%, respectively. At the seasonal scale, water yield and surface runoff will increase more in autumn and winter in SSP 1, while in other scenarios, these parameters will increase more in the spring and summer seasons. Sediment yield will increase more in autumn in all scenarios. Similarly, the future climate change is predicted to impact the important parameters related to the flow regime of the Minjiang river, i.e., the frequency and peak of large floods (flows > 14,000 m3/s) will increase along the gradient of scenarios, i.e., more in SSP 5 followed by 3, 2, and 1, while duration will increase in SSP 5 and decrease in the other SSPs. The frequency and duration of extreme low flows will increase in SSP 5 while decrease in SSP 1. Moreover, peak of extreme low flows will decrease in all scenarios except SSP 1, in which it will increase. The study will improve the general understanding about the possible impacts of future climate change in the region and provide support for improving the management and protection of the watershed’s water and soil resources.

The Influence of Landcover and Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Minjiang River Watershed

Changes in the climate and landcover are the two most important factors that influence terrestrial hydrological systems. Today, watershed-scale hydrological models are widely used to estimate the individual impacts of changes in the climate and landcover on watershed hydrology. The Minjiang river watershed is an ecologically and economically important, humid, subtropical watershed, located in south-eastern China. Several studies are available on the impacts of recent climate change on the watershed; however, no efforts have been made to separate the individual contributions of climate and landcover changes. This study is an attempt to separate the individual impacts of recent (1989–2018) climate and landcover changes on some of the important hydrological components of the watershed, and highlight the most influential changes in climate parameters and landcover classes. A calibrated soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was employed for the study. The outcomes revealed that, during the study period, water yield decreased by 6.76%, while evapotranspiration, surface runoff and sediment yield increased by 1.08%, 24.11% and 33.85% respectively. The relative contribution of climate change to landcover change for the decrease in the water yield was 95%, while its contribution to the increases in evapotranspiration, surface runoff and sediment yield was 56%, 77% and 51%, respectively. The changes in climate parameters that were most likely responsible for changes in ET were increasing solar radiation and temperature and decreasing wind speed, those for changes in the water yield were decreasing autumn precipitation and increasing solar radiation and temperature, those for the increase in surface runoff were increasing summer and one-day maximum precipitation, while those for the increasing sediment yield were increasing winter and one-day maximum precipitation. Similarly, an increase in the croplands at the expense of needle-leaved forests was the landcover change that was most likely responsible for a decrease in the water yield and an increase in ET and sediment yield, while an increase in the amount of urban land at the expense of broadleaved forests and wetlands was the landcover change that was most likely responsible for increasing surface runoff. The findings of the study can provide support for improving management and protection of the watershed in the context of landcover and climate change.

Characteristics of the disastrous debris flow of Chediguan gully in Yinxing town, Sichuan Province, on August 20, 2019

On August 20, 2019, at 2 a.m., a disastrous debris flow occurred in Chediguan gully in Yinxing town, China. The debris flow destroyed the drainage groove and the bridge at the exit of the gully. In addition, the debris flow temporarily blocked the Minjiang River during the flood peak, flooding the Taipingyi hydropower station 200 m upstream and leaving two plant workers missing. To further understand the activity of the debris flow after the Wenchuan earthquake, the characteristics of this debris flow event were studied. Eleven years after the Wenchuan earthquake, a disastrous debris flow still occurred in the Chediguan catchment, causing more severe losses than those of earlier debris flows. In this paper, the formation mechanism and dynamic characteristics of this debris flow event are analysed based on a drone survey, high-definition remote sensing interpretations and other means. The catastrophic debris flow event indicates that debris flows in the Wenchuan earthquake area are still active. A large amount of dredging work in the main gully could effectively reduce the debris flow risk in the gully. In addition, it is also important to repair or rebuild damaged mitigation measures and to establish a real-time monitoring and early warning system for the high-risk gully.

Dynamics of the Toxic Dinoflagellate Alexandrium pacificum in the Taiwan Strait and Its Linkages to Surrounding Populations

The dinoflagellate Alexandrium pacificum can produce paralytic shellfish toxins and is mainly distributed in the Pacific. Blooms of A. pacificum have been frequently reported in offshore areas of the East China Sea, but not along the coast. To investigate the bloom dynamics of A. pacificum and their potential origins in the Taiwan Strait, we performed intensive sampling of both water and sediments from 2017 to 2020. Ellipsoidal cysts were identified as A. pacificum and enumerated based on microscopic observation. Their abundances were quite low but there was a maximum of 9.6 cysts cm−3 in the sediment near the Minjiang River estuary in May 2020, consistent with the high cell abundance in the water column in this area. Cells of A. pacificum were examined using a quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and they appeared to be persistent in the water column across the seasons. High densities of A. pacificum (103 cells L−1) were observed near the Jiulongjiang and Minjiang River estuary in early May 2020, where high nutrients (dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate), and relatively low temperatures (20–21 °C) were also recorded. Strains isolated from the East and South China Sea exhibited the highest division rate (0.63 and 0.93 divisions d−1) at 20 and 23 °C, respectively, but the strain from the Yellow Sea showed the highest division (0.40 divisions d−1) at 17–23 °C. Strains from the East and South China Sea shared similar toxin profiles dominated by the N-sulfocarbamoyl toxins C1/2, but the strain from the Yellow Sea predominantly produced the carbamoyl toxins GTX1/4 and no C1/2. Our results suggest that both cyst germination and persistent cells in the water column might contribute to the bloom formation in the Taiwan Strait. Our results also indicate that the East and South China Sea populations are connected genetically through similar toxin formation but separated from the Yellow Sea population geographically.

Traceability and Emission Reduction of Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen in Minjiang Estuary, China

The accumulation of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in estuaries has become a global environmental problem. A two-dimensional, hydrodynamic water quality model was constructed in this study to investigate the sources of DIN pollution in the Minjiang Estuary. The concentration response field between the stream input and DIN in the estuary was established by using the surveyed source data of the study area. A sharing coefficient method was used to calculate the contribution percentage of each outfall to derive and propose a reasonable nitrogen reduction plan. The results showed that the input of land-based nitrogen into the Minjiang River contributed more than half of the DIN in the near-shore sea; the middle and upper reaches of the Minjiang River largely influenced the estuary area (38.57%). Conversely, the estuary and the coastline accounted for a smaller proportion of only 5.24%, indicating that an integrated DIN reduction should be implemented in the estuary area of the whole river basin. The model calculations showed that the reduction results, after remediation according to the current national standards for wastewater discharge in rivers, were not satisfactory. Thus, a new scheme is proposed in this paper—the total nitrogen (TN) input from land-based sources into the Minjiang Estuary and from the Shuikou Dam to the Min’an section should be reduced to below 31.64%; simultaneously, the DIN concentration discharged from the Shuikou Dam should be controlled and maintained below 0.5 mg·L−1 (TN = 0.8 mg·L−1). These results will provide guidelines for developing strategies for the improvement of DIN and water quality in similar estuaries.

Characteristics of the Disastrous Debris Flow of Chediguan Gully in Yinxing Town, Sichuan Province, on August 20, 2019

On August 20, 2019, at 2 a.m., a disastrous debris flow occurred in Chediguan gully in Yinxing town, China. The debris flow destroyed the drainage groove and the bridge at the exit of the gully. In addition, the debris flow temporarily blocked the Minjiang River during the flood peak, flooding the Taipingyi hydropower station 200 m upstream and leaving two plant workers missing. To further understand the activity of the debris flow after the Wenchuan earthquake, the characteristics of this debris flow event were studied. Eleven years after the Wenchuan earthquake, a disastrous debris flow still occurred in the Chediguan catchment, causing more severe losses than those of earlier debris flows. In this paper, the formation mechanism and dynamic characteristics of this debris flow event are analysed based on a drone survey, high-definition remote sensing interpretations and other means. The catastrophic debris flow event indicates that debris flows in the Wenchuan earthquake area are still active. A large amount of dredging work in the main gully could effectively reduce the debris flow risk in the gully. In addition, it is also important to repair or rebuild damaged mitigation measures and to establish a real-time monitoring and early warning system for the high-risk gully.

Bivariate Frequency of Meteorological Drought in the Upper Minjiang River Based on Copula Function

Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and copula function, this study analyzed the meteorological drought in the upper Minjiang River basin. The Tyson polygon method is used to divide the research area into four regions based on four meteorological stations. The monthly precipitation data of four meteorological stations from 1966 to 2016 were used for the calculation of SPI. The change trend of SPI1, SPI3 and SPI12 showed the historical dry-wet evolution phenomenon of short-term humidification and long-term aridification in the study area. The major drought events in each region are counted based on SPI3. The results show that the drought lasted the longest in Maoxian region, the occurrence of minor drought events was more frequent than the other regions. Nine distribution functions are used to fit the marginal distribution of drought duration (D), severity (S) and peak (P) estimated based on SPI3, the best marginal distribution is obtained by chi-square test. Five copula functions are used to create a bivariate joint probability distribution, the best copula function is selected through AIC, the univariate and bivariate return periods were calculated. The results of this paper will help the study area to assess the drought risk.