Reservoir management under different operating water levels, operation policies, and climate change conditions

The Aswan High Dam Reservoir management system was developed to simulate dam operation under varying boundary conditions taking as example climate change and Millennium Dam construction, and analyze the optimal operation rules of the reservoir taking into account a large number of objectives, including hydropower production and water supply for irrigation purposes. The developed system runs on Windows platforms and comprises three basic modules: a user-friendly graphical interface managing all graphic features, a computational engine where all the algorithms are implemented, and a database and files module managing hydrological and operational data. The developed model was calibrated. The future hydrologic scenarios developed have been used to assess the expected impacts of potential climate change (baseline and three periods with two global emission scenarios) and the Millennium Dam. The new operation rules were used for scenarios analysis. It was concluded that overall applying the new operation rules will decrease the percentage of occurrence of minimum water levels. Also, the Millennium Dam will increase the percentage of occurrence of minimum water levels. Finally, the period III (2070–2099) for the two global emission scenarios is very critical for the dam operation.

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Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-22838-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Benjamin H. Strauss ◽

Philip M. Orton ◽

Klaus Bittermann ◽

Maya K. Buchanan ◽

Daniel M. Gilford ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

East Coast ◽

The United States ◽

Hurricane Sandy ◽

Water Levels ◽

Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽

Economic Damage ◽

Sea Levels

AbstractIn 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.

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Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-94942-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Patrick L. Barnard ◽

Jenifer E. Dugan ◽

Henry M. Page ◽

Nathan J. Wood ◽

Juliette A. Finzi Hart ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Sandy Beaches ◽

Local Economy ◽

Water Levels ◽

Tipping Points ◽

Socioeconomic Impacts ◽

Hazard Exposure ◽

Coastal Systems ◽

Projected Changes

AbstractAs the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.

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The effects of ENSO, climate change and human activities on the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia: a critical literature review

Geoscience Letters ◽

10.1186/s40562-021-00191-x ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Hendri Irwandi ◽

Mohammad Syamsu Rosid ◽

Terry Mart

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Level ◽

Human Activities ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Water Levels ◽

Dominant Factor ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Continuous Increase ◽

The Future

AbstractThis research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water level were associated with climate variability, climate change, and human activities. Furthermore, these studies stated that reduced rainfall during the rainy season due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the continuous increase in the maximum and average temperatures were some of the effects of climate change in the Lake Toba catchment area. Additionally, human interventions such as industrial activities, population growth, and damage to the surrounding environment of the Lake Toba watershed had significant impacts in terms of decreasing the water level. However, these studies were unable to determine the factor that had the most significant effect, although studies on other lakes worldwide have shown these factors are the main causes of fluctuations or decreases in water levels. A simulation study of Lake Toba's water balance showed the possibility of having a water surplus until the mid-twenty-first century. The input discharge was predicted to be greater than the output; therefore, Lake Toba could be optimized without affecting the future water level. However, the climate projections depicted a different situation, with scenarios predicting the possibility of extreme climate anomalies, demonstrating drier climatic conditions in the future. This review concludes that it is necessary to conduct an in-depth, comprehensive, and systematic study to identify the most dominant factor among the three that is causing the decrease in the Lake Toba water level and to describe the future projected water level.

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Impact of Extreme Drought Climate on Water Security in North Borneo: Case Study of Sabah

Water ◽

10.3390/w12041135 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 1135

Author(s):

Carolyn Payus ◽

Lim Ann Huey ◽

Farrah Adnan ◽

Andi Besse Rimba ◽

Geetha Mohan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resource ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Water Security ◽

Water Levels ◽

Extreme Drought ◽

Northeast Monsoon ◽

Water Insecurity ◽

The North ◽

North Borneo

For countries in Southeast Asia that mainly rely on surface water as their water resource, changes in weather patterns and hydrological systems due to climate change will cause severely decreased water resource availability. Warm weather triggers more water use and exacerbates the extraction of water resources, which will change the operation patterns of water usage and increase demand, resulting in water scarcity. The occurrence of prolonged drought upsets the balance between water supply and demand, significantly increasing the vulnerability of regions to damaging impacts. The objectives of this study are to identify trends and determine the impacts of extreme drought events on water levels for the major important water dams in the northern part of Borneo, and to assess the risk of water insecurity for the dams. In this context, remote sensing images are used to determine the degree of risk of water insecurity in the regions. Statistical methods are used in the analysis of daily water levels and rainfall data. The findings show that water levels in dams on the North and Northeast Coasts of Borneo are greatly affected by the extreme drought climate caused by the Northeast Monsoon, with mild to the high risk recorded in terms of water insecurity, with only two of the water dams being water-secure. This study shows how climate change has affected water availability throughout the regions.

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Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis

Water ◽

10.3390/w13040545 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 545

Author(s):

Alexis K. Mills ◽

Peter Ruggiero ◽

John P. Bolte ◽

Katherine A. Serafin ◽

Eva Lipiec

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Performance Metrics ◽

Coastal Flooding ◽

Water Levels ◽

Coastal Hazards ◽

Policy Decisions ◽

Management Decisions ◽

Quantifying Uncertainty

Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, policy drivers, modeled both as individual management decisions and as policies integrated within adaptation scenarios, captured variability in possible human response to increased hazards risk. The relative contribution of variability and uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions was quantified using three stakeholder relevant landscape performance metrics related to flooding, erosion, and recreational beach accessibility. In general, policy decisions introduced greater variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than climate change uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty across a suite of coproduced performance metrics can help determine the relative impact of management decisions on the adaptive capacity of communities under future climate scenarios.

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Modelling the climate change impact on the largest White Sea estuarine areas

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8274 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Evgeniya Panchenko ◽

Andrei Alabyan ◽

Inna Krylenko ◽

Serafima Lebedeva

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

River Runoff ◽

White Sea ◽

Water Levels ◽

Hydrodynamic Modelling ◽

The White Sea ◽

Runoff Changes ◽

Flow Velocities

Possible sea level rise and changes in hydrological regime of rivers are the major threats to estuarine systems. The sensibility of hydrodynamic regime of the Northern Dvina delta and the Onega estuary under various scenarios of climate change has been investigated. Hydrodynamic models HEC-RAS (USA, US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center) and STREAM_2D (Russia, authors V.Belikov et.al.) were used for analysis of estuarine flow regime (variations of water levels, discharges and flow velocities throughout tidal cycles). Input runoff changes were simulated for different climate scenarios using ECOMAG model (Russia, author Yu.Motovilov) based on data of global climate models (GSM) of CMIP5 project for the White Sea region.ECOMAG modelling has demonstrated that the maximum river discharges averaged for 30-year period 2036 &#8211; 2065 can reduce for about 20 &#8211; 27% for the Onega and 15 &#8211; 20% for the Northern Dvina river compared against the historical period 1971 &#8211; 2000.Averaged minimum river discharges can reduce for about 33 &#8211; 45% for the Onega and 30 &#8211; 40% for the Northern Dvina.The White Sea level rise by 0.27 m in average (with inter-model variation from 0.20 to 0.38 m) can took place by the middle of the XXI century according to input data of GSM models. The 12 scenarios of estuarine hydrodynamic changes were simulated for the both rivers based on combining river runoff changes and sea level elevation.In general, the expected flow changes are negative for the local industry and population. According to modelling results for &#8216;high runoff/spring tide&#8217; scenarios the flooding area in the Northern Dvina delta will increase by 13-20% depending on the intensity of sea level rise. In the low water seasons the distance from the river mouth to the upper boundary of the reach, where reverse currents can be observed, will move upstream by 8 - 36 km depending of sea/river conditions due to decrease in minimum river runoff. It may adversely effect on shipping conditions at the city of Arkhangelsk and on brackish water intrusion up-to industrial and communal water intakes.The reverse currents also will intensify in the Onega estuary (tidal flow velocities increase for 11 &#8211; 19%) that leads to the change of the sediment regime and can significantly deteriorate the navigation conditions at the seaport of the Onega town. The problem of the intensification of salt intrusion can arise there as well.The research was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Projects No. 18- 05-60021 in development of the scenarios; No. 19-35-90032 in providing hydrodynamic modelling of the Onega; Project No. 19-35-60032 in providing hydrodynamic modelling of the Northern Dvina).

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A review of seawater intrusion in the Nile Delta groundwater system – the basis for assessing impacts due to climate changes and water resources development

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-10-10873-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. 10873-10911 ◽

Cited By ~ 38

Author(s):

M. B. Mabrouk ◽

A. Jonoski ◽

D. Solomatine ◽

S. Uhlenbrook

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Nile Delta ◽

Groundwater Resources ◽

Scientific Evidence ◽

Three Dimensional ◽

Water Levels ◽

Population Increase ◽

Regional Process ◽

Environmentally Sound ◽

Resources Development

Abstract. Serious environmental problems are emerging in the River Nile basin and its groundwater resources. Recent years have brought scientific evidence of climate change and development-induced environmental impacts globally as well as over Egypt. Some impacts are subtle, like decline of the Nile River water levels, others are dramatic like the salinization of all coastal land in the Nile Delta – the agricultural engine of Egypt. These consequences have become a striking reality causing a set of interconnected groundwater management problems. Massive population increase that overwhelmed the Nile Delta region has amplified the problem. Many researchers have studied these problems from different perspectives using different methodologies, following different objectives and, consequently, arrived at different findings. However, they all confirmed that significant groundwater salinization has affected the Nile Delta and this is likely to become worse rapidly in the future. This article presents, categorizes and critically analyses and synthesizes the most relevant research regarding climate change and development challenges in relation to groundwater resources in the Nile Delta. It is shown that there is a gap in studies that focus on sustainable groundwater resources development and environmentally sound protection as an integrated regional process in Nile Delta. Moreover, there is also a knowledge gap related to the deterioration of groundwater quality. The article recommends further research that covers the groundwater resources and salinization in the whole Nile Delta based on integrated three-dimensional groundwater modelling of the Nile delta aquifer.

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Afsluitdijk climate resilient with XblocPlus

10.2749/ghent.2021.0256 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Bas Reedijk ◽

Pieter Bakker

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level ◽

North Sea ◽

Wadden Sea ◽

Water Levels ◽

Visual Appearance ◽

Seaward Side ◽

Reference Design ◽

Wave Heights ◽

Crest Height

The Afsluitdijk forms 32 km of the primary sea defence of the Netherlands. The Afsluitdijk was built as a closure dam in 1932 and separates the IJsselmeer from the Wadden-Sea and North Sea. Because of climate change the Afsluitdijk needs to be strengthened. A higher crest height is required to limit overtopping at higher water levels due to sea level rise. Heavier armour is required to protect the Afsluitdijk from higher wave heights. Because of the historic value of the Afsluitdijk, stringent architectural requirements are in place on the visual appearance of the dam after strengthening [1]. Therefore, a new concrete armour unit was developed to provide protection of the seaward side of the Afsluitdijk. This armour unit is called XblocPlus. The development of the armour unit is based on the breakwater armour unit Xbloc which has been applied since 2004. A saving of 56% on CO2 footprint was achieved compared to the Clients reference design.

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Lake water level response to drought in a lake-rich region explained by lake and landscape characteristics

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences ◽

10.1139/cjfas-2019-0270 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 77 (11) ◽

pp. 1836-1845

Author(s):

K. Martin Perales ◽

Catherine L. Hein ◽

Noah R. Lottig ◽

M. Jake Vander Zanden

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Level ◽

Lake Water ◽

Water Levels ◽

Water Level Fluctuations ◽

Lake Area ◽

Lake Water Level ◽

Landscape Characteristics ◽

Lake Ecology ◽

Coarse Woody Habitat

Climate change is altering hydrologic regimes, with implications for lake water levels. While lakes within lake districts experience the same climate, lakes may exhibit differential climate vulnerability regarding water level response to drought. We took advantage of a recent drought (∼2005–2010) and estimated changes in lake area, water level, and shoreline position on 47 lakes in northern Wisconsin using high-resolution orthoimagery and hypsographic curves. We developed a model predicting water level response to drought to identify characteristics of the most vulnerable lakes in the region, which indicated that low-conductivity seepage lakes found high in the landscape, with little surrounding wetland and highly permeable soils, showed the greatest water level declines. To explore potential changes in the littoral zone, we estimated coarse woody habitat (CWH) loss during the drought and found that drainage lakes lost 0.8% CWH while seepage lakes were disproportionately impacted, with a mean loss of 40% CWH. Characterizing how lakes and lake districts respond to drought will further our understanding of how climate change may alter lake ecology via water level fluctuations.

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