scholarly journals Some Sociodemographic Factors of the Intensity of Anti-Government Demonstrations: Youth Bulges, Urbanization, and Protests

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 98-128
Author(s):  
Andrey Korotayev ◽  
Patrick Sawyer ◽  
Maxim Gladyshev ◽  
Daniil Romanov ◽  
Alisa Shishkina
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Sociodemographic Factors ◽  
Combined Effect ◽  
Relevant Factor ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Level Of Education ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Two Parameters ◽  
Cross National

Demographic changes associated with the transition from traditional to modern economies underlie many modern theories of protest formation. Both the level of urbanization and the “Youth Bulge” effect have proven to be particularly reliable indicators for predicting protest events. However, given that in the course of economic development these processes often occur simultaneously, it seems logical to put forward the hypothesis that the combined effect of urbanization growth and an increase in the number of young people will be a more relevant factor for predicting protests. Our study of cross-national time series from 1950 to 2016 shows that the combined effect of these two parameters is an extremely strong predictor of anti-government protests in a single country, even more so than traditional indicators such as democratization, per capita GDP, and the level of education.

Comparative Study on BRIC Carbon Dioxide Emissions - Econometric Empirical Test Based on Cross-Century Time Series Data

2012 ◽  
Vol 616-618 ◽  
pp. 1512-1515
Author(s):  
Wei Hua Du
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Comparative Statics ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Bric Countries ◽  
Per Capita

Take for example the BRIC economies: Brazil, Russia, India and China. We investigated the time series data on the relationship between carbon dioxide emission and economic growth in these fast-growing developing countries by both comparative statics and comparative dynamics. The results show that there is the monotonic relationship between total carbon dioxide emissions, carbon dioxide emissions per capita and per capita GDP in any one of the BRIC countries. And there is decreasing relationship between the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP and per capita GDP.

scholarly journals From Convergence to Divergence: Portuguese Economic Growth, 1527–1850

2019 ◽  
Vol 79 (2) ◽  
pp. 477-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nuno Palma ◽  
Jaime Reis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
European Standards ◽  
European Economies ◽  
First Time

We construct the first time-series for Portugal’s per capita GDP for 1527–1850, drawing on a new database. Starting in the early 1630s there was a highly persistent upward trend which accelerated after 1710 and peaked 40 years later. At that point, per capita income was high by European standards, though behind the most advanced Western European economies. But as the second half of the eighteenth century unfolded, a phase of economic decline was initiated. This continued into the nineteenth century, and by 1850 per capita incomes were not different from what they had been in the early 1530s.

Kondratieff Cycles in Developed Economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 9-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Total Power ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Economic Cycles ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The 19Th Century

The objective of this paper is to identify Kondratieff cycles in the developed economies. Time series spectral analysis of real per capita GDP of the developed countries and Brazil is performed. Also studied are time series for the period from the 19th century to 2008. As a result Kondratieff cycles (waves) are found out in the economic dynamics of all the countries surveyed, except for Finland. The power of Kondratieff cycles in the economic dynamics is estimated to fall in the range of 23 to 61% of the total power of all economic cycles with the periods of 2 to 100 years. The Kondratieff cycles can be found in a number of economies in the period of 19th — 20th centuries. It allows to distinguish the three moderntime Kondratieff waves in the said countries and to evaluate productivity of the fourth, the fifth and the sixth technological modes in their economies. However in a number of countries the Kondratieff cycles show up only in the 20th century. So for these countries only one or two modern Kondratieff waves can be clearly identified, making it possible to evaluate productivity of only the fifth and the sixth technological modes in their economies.

How do Political Institutions Affect Corruption?

Corruption ◽  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Fisman ◽  
Miriam A. Golden
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
National Data ◽  
Huge Amount ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Amount Of Information ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Cross National

In chapter 3, we saw that corruption is far more pervasive in poor nations than in rich ones. That is, per capita GDP offers a huge amount of information about corruption: the cross-national data that we studied there suggests that you can explain about 60...

The Results of the Research of Cycles of the Australian Economic Dynamics

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 37-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Левкина ◽  
Nataliya Levkina
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
Australian Economy ◽  
Kondratieff Cycles ◽  
Per Capita

The article presents the results of the analysis of Australia`s economic dynamics in order to identify Kondratiev waves (cycles). The analysis of the time series of real per capita GDP for the period from 1820 to 2008 had revealed the presence of cycles of economic dynamics with a period of about 50 years, which can be identified as Kondratieff cycles (waves). The results of the analysis showed that the formation of Kondratieff cycles in the Australian economy occurred in the late XIX — early XX century. The maximum value of these cycles` potency was reached in the middle of XX century, then their potency began to fall. The results of the research may be used in order to determine the time of beginning of these cycles and correlation between Kondratieff cycles and dominant technological modes.

The dynamics of CO2 emissions and economic growth: A comparative analysis using symbolic time series

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Gabriel Brida ◽  
David Matesanz Gómez ◽  
Verónica Segarra
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The Other ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Nonparametric Clustering ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Over Time

The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamic relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions for a set of 98 countries over the lengthy period from 1951 to 2014. We describe the topology and hierarchy of countries and introduce a different concept of economic performance based on the idea of dynamic regimes. These regimes are defined by the average levels of per-capita CO2 emissions and the growth rates of per-capita GDP. By presenting a nonparametric clustering technique, the paper identifies two main groups. One cluster can be identified as the group of developed countries, which presents a homogeneous structure and tends toward more similar dynamics over time. The other cluster, associated with developing countries, is homogeneous but the dynamics of the countries do not show convergence. The study also finds some, though little, mobility between the groups.

What’s Causing Secularization? Insecurity

2020 ◽  
pp. 63-73
Author(s):  
Ronald F. Inglehart
Keyword(s):  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Religious Attendance ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
High Infant Mortality ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Welfare Expenditures

Evolutionary modernization theory holds that both religiosity and pro-fertility norms are linked with existential insecurity, and a massive body of empirical evidence confirms this: secure people and secure countries show the lowest levels of religiosity. Existential security reflects not only a society’s per capita GDP but how evenly it is distributed, making income inequality a strong predictor of religiosity. Similarly, high levels of social welfare expenditures have a strong negative impact on religious attendance. Historic vulnerability to disease also has a persisting impact on religiosity: countries that were vulnerable to disease tend to be relatively poor and have low life expectancy and high infant mortality and high religiosity today. Overall, various indicators of existential security have a strong impact on religiosity, but this impact has a generational delay: the strongest predictor of religiosity around 2018 is the society’s level of infant mortality, not at the time of the survey but almost 40 years earlier, in 1980.

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