scholarly journals Risk Assessment Models to Improve Environmental Safety in the Field of the Economy and Organization of Construction: A Case Study of Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 13539
Author(s):  
Arkadiy Larionov ◽  
Ekaterina Nezhnikova ◽  
Elena Smirnova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Environmental Safety ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
The Future

This article assesses risks in order to substantiate the economic and organizational efficiency of housing and industrial construction. This topic is relevant because it is necessary for sustainable development. In Russia, environmental safety in construction and housing, as well as communal services, is poorly developed and not regulated by the legal system. As building construction, housing, and communal services should be based on environmental safety, this topic requires rapid development. Methods related to quantifying environmental risk and making decisions under conditions of uncertainty were studied. A quantitative risk assessment was performed using the Monte Carlo method for pessimistic and optimistic options to prevent environmental damage. The model reproduced the distribution derived from the evidence-based fit. The results of sensitivity analysis are also presented to prove the hypothesis. The selection of the most appropriate probability density functions for each of the input quantities was implemented through settings in a computer program. The simulation modeling results clearly illustrate the choice of the general principle of assessment and the adoption of the optimal decision. In conditions of uncertainty, the decision to choose the optimistic options with high cost (to maintain the reliability of the technical system) but less risk plays a decisive role in the future environmental safety strategies of construction projects. The Monte Carlo method is preferable for environmental impact assessments. In the future, the amended methodology can be applied to raise environmental safety in the field of construction.

THE MONTE CARLO METHOD AS A RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL IN THE FORMATION OF A STOCK PORTFOLIO IN A CRISIS SITUATION

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Екатерина Андреевна Винниченко ◽  
Светлана Валентиновна Пупенцова
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Corporate Bonds ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Crisis Situation ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Financial Investments ◽  
Stock Portfolio

В работе разработан алгоритм применения метода имитационного моделирования при оценке эффективности финансовых инвестиций на примере оценки корпоративных облигаций в кризисной ситуации. Авторы рассчитали доходность к погашению корпоративных облигаций в период кризиса 2020 года и подготовили рекомендации по выбору наиболее привлекательных ценных бумаг для инвестора. In this paper, we have developed an algorithm for applying the simulation method to evaluate the effectiveness of financial investments on the example of evaluating corporate bonds in a crisis situation. The authors calculated the yield to maturity of corporate bonds during the crisis in 2020 and prepared recommendations for choosing the most attractive securities for investors.

scholarly journals RISK ASSESSMENT WITH THE USE OF THE MONTE-CARLO METHOD

2019 ◽  
Vol 0 (6(84)) ◽  
pp. 16-26
Author(s):  
L. V. Amelina ◽  
M. M. Biliaiev ◽  
O. V. Berlov ◽  
L. A. Cherednychenko
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

scholarly journals Providing the environmental safety by increasing the efficiency of firefighting in unsheltered timber warehouses

2021 ◽  
pp. 123-129
Author(s):  
E. M. Hulida ◽  
I. V. Pasnak ◽  
O. E. Vasylieva ◽  
I. O. Movchan
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Combustion Products ◽  
Environmental Safety ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Fire Front ◽  
Free Development ◽  
The Impact

Purpose. To develop a method for reducing the impact of fires in unsheltered timber warehouses on the environmental safety by reducing the duration of free burning of timber, the speed of fire front spread, emissions of combustion products and the duration of the firefighting. Methodology. During the experimental research, the method of fractional factor experiment was used. Theoretical research was performed using optimization mathematical models. The Monte Carlo method is used to solve optimization problems. To implement this method, block diagrams of algorithms was developed, based on written corresponded computer programs. Findings. The method was developed for reducing the impact of fires in unsheltered timber warehouses on the environmental safety by reducing the duration of free development of the fire, the speed of fire front spread, the concentration of combustion products and the duration of the fire. Fire prevention measures to reduce the duration of fire and to reduce emissions of combustion products due to fires in unsheltered timber warehouses was implemented by using an automated system to determine the fire extinguishing means and forces by setting an optimization problem, applying the Monte Carlo method and developing software to solve it. Originality. The scientific novelty is the justification of ways to reduce the duration of the free development of fire and to reduce the amount of toxic emissions using optimization mathematical models. Practical value. It is possible to use the obtained results in the practical activities of fire and rescue units of the SES of Ukraine and provide environmental safety in case of fire in unsheltered timber warehouse due to the practical implementation of administrative, legal and economic methods.

scholarly journals Improving the assessment of the environmental and economic efficiency of measures

2021 ◽  
Vol 112 ◽  
pp. 00002
Author(s):  
Inna P. Bandurinа ◽  
Mikhail A. Bandurin ◽  
Alexander P. Bandurin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Land Reclamation ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The purpose of the study is to improve methods for improving the regulatory and methodological framework for assessing the environmental and economic effectiveness of land reclamation investment projects. The research methodology is based on the Monte Carlo method, which corresponds to international standards, the theory and algorithms of innovative methods for determining risks, as well as the ability to provide the user with information about the content of risk assessment operations and ensure that their preferences are taken into account in the calculation process. Currently, many tools have been developed for automating risk analysis procedures, including those performed by the Monte Carlo method, which are described in various studies with varying degrees of completeness. The analysis of priority methods of assessing the risks of achieving the projected economic indicators of project solutions is performed and the prospects of the simulation method for practical use in the field of land reclamation are shown. The results of the risk assessment of environmental and economic efficiency of anti-filtration coatings of hydraulic structures of irrigation systems performed by the Monte Carlo method in the environment of the Crystal Ball software product are presented, and the need to improve the reliability of the predicted results of the effectiveness of the designed measures is established. Future research is risk assessment of profitability of the designed activities promote the development of existing and formation of new theories to justify the feasibility of implementation of reclamation investment projects.

scholarly journals RISK ASSESSMENT FOR VIOLATION OF ANTI-TRUST LEGISLATION BY STATE EXECUTIVE AUTHORITIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 390-401
Author(s):  
A. B. Androsova ◽  
O. N. Orlova ◽  
S. D. Furta
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Bow Tie

The article deals with a problem of building an anti-trust compliance system in state executive authorities from the point of view of contemporary risk management. The authors expound a well-known instrument based on the bow-tie diagram construction which successfully helps to develop effective measures to prevent violation of anti-trust legislation cases by state executive authorities. They also give some numeric results of statistical modelling of anti-trust legislation violation risks by state executive authorities by means of the Monte-Carlo method.

scholarly journals Pemodelan Penjualan Produk Herbal Menggunakan Metode Monte Carlo

KOMTEKINFO ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 33-41
Author(s):  
Elvin Syahrin ◽  
Julius Santony ◽  
Jufriadif Na’am
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Data Processing ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
The Future ◽  
A Company

Sales are a source of life for a company. Predicting the number of sales is important in analyzing the development of sales. Analysis of sales development is an important factor in increasing sales. Using the Monte Carlo method can predict the accuracy of the data items in the company. The results of this study on data processing in 2016 until 2017 have an accuracy of 97%. So this research is very precise in predicting sales for the future

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