scholarly journals The probability of the correct majority made decision

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-53
Author(s):  
Vladimir M. Strepetov ◽  
Konstantin E. Voevodskii
Keyword(s):  
Asymptotic Representation ◽  
Power Series Expansion ◽  
Magnetic Suspension ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Cauchy Inequality ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Geometric Average ◽  
Individual Probability ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Bilateral Estimates

Aim: the probability of correctness of the collegial decision, which is made by a majority vote of some collective (board), consisting of an odd number of members is investigated, if the probability of correctness of the individual decision of each member of Board is known. Мaterials and methods: Bernoulli scheme, asymptotic representation, estimation via geometric series, power series expansion, the formula of Wallis, a power scale of averages, average of Kolmogorov. Result: it is established, that if for each member of the board the probability of correctness of the individual decision is more than ½, then with an unlimited increase in the number of members of the Board the probability of correctness of the collegial decision tends to 1. The asymptotic representation and a number of bilateral estimates characterizing the speed of this aspiration are obtained. For heterogeneous Board (that is a Board, whose members make the right individual decision with different probability) introduced the concept of collegial average as an average characteristics, which can replaced the individual probability of each member of the board with the preservation of the probability of a collegial decision. The existence and uniqueness of the collegial average are proved. We derive a collegial inequality showing that the collegial average of some a set of numbers is not less than the geometric average of the same numbers with the equality takes place in the case and only if all the numbers are equal to each other. The collegial inequality serves as an analogue and complement to known set of inequalities establishing a connection between different averages (for example, Cauchy inequality for arithmetic average and geometric average). Conclusion: thus, the results of the study fully meet the aim of determining the probability of correctness of collegial decision taken by a majority of votes under the assumptions. As a result we obtain an asymptotic representation and bilateral estimates characterizing the rate of striving for the correct solution. For a heterogeneous board, the existence uniqueness of the concept of collegial average as an average characteristics is introduced and strictly proved, which can be replaced by an individual probability of each with preserving the probability of correctness of the collegial decision. It is established that the collegial average is not less than the geometric average. Possible applications of the results obtained can be the quantitative evaluation of election procedures and the solution of problems associated with improving the reliability of recognition of weak signals of control sensors of various transport systems, including high-speed transport systems on magnetic suspension.

Are the saving decision patterns of bank customers also clouded by psychological biases? Evidence from Ghana

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Emmanuel Tetteh ◽  
Christopher Boachie
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Loss Aversion ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Weighted Least Squares ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Saving Decisions ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThis paper attempts to investigate the influence of psychological biases on saving decision-making of bank customers in Ghana.Design/methodology/approachIt employs weighted least squares regression to test the effect of psychological biases on savings decisions of bank customers.FindingsThe findings show that all the nine psychological biases, namely mental accounting, availability, loss aversion, representativeness, anchoring, overconfidence, status quo, framing effect and disposition effect employed for the study have a significant influence on saving decision of bank customers. The results depict that psychological biases are entrenched in the saving pattern of bank customers in Ghana.Practical implicationsFor policy purposes, the study recommends that bank customers need to enhance their knowledge of psychological biases in order to improve their gains from savings, and not to fall prey to these prejudices. The satisfied customer is a dependable source of bank viability and survival.Originality/valueTo the best of the knowledge of the author, this study provides the first empirical evidence of the influence of psychological biases on saving decisions of bank customers in Ghana. The findings of this study will enhance knowledge on the influence of psychological biases on individual decision-making and will accentuate the fact that the individual is not an entirely rational being.

Specialization Agreements under the EEC Competition Rules; A Commentary on Regulation No. 417/85

1987 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 380-413
Author(s):  
Magnus Höög
Keyword(s):  
Individual Decision ◽  
Effective Competition ◽  
Unit Costs ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
Competition Rules ◽  
Individual Decisions ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Right ◽  
Restrictive Clause ◽  
Considerable Size

AbstractEach case depends on its own facts. Still, the decided cases give considerable guidance to the Commission's approach to granting individual exemptions. The Commission seems to be concerned primarily with the activities of only the parties subject to the specialization agreement, not with unrelated pursuits of corporate relations of the parties94. The Commission also attributes to th especialization agreements an increase of production with a concomittent lowering of unit costs. The exclusivity will thus help to provide the necessary expanded market. The parties to the agreements discussed above are of different sizes, some have very significant shares of the markets in question. A considerable size of the parties, i.e. substantial turnover or large market shares, normally will make it more difficult to obtain an individual exemption. Still, the individual decisions make it clear that even quite substantial undertakings can obtain the benefit of an individual decision under the right circumstances. This leads to the conclusion that size per se is not a concern to the Commission. Of concern is the restrictive clauses in, to some extent, conjunction with the size. Together, the restrictive clause and the considerable size bring the agreement far within the scope of Article 85(1). That the agreement can be granted an individual exemption due to inherent advantages is another side of the coin. A significant example is Re Lightweight Papers. Once the most rigid clauses in the agreement were withdrawn, an exemption was granted no matter the huge market shares in Benelux and France (70% and 80% respectively). The existence of effective competition is the all important element. No matter the size, an exemption can be had if effective competition prevails.

Individual probability for onset of full-blown disease in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1

1991 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 351-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilbert Reibnegger ◽  
Thomas J Spira ◽  
Dietmar Fuchs ◽  
GabrIele Werner-Felmayer ◽  
Manfied P Dierich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Immunodeficiency Virus ◽  
Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type ◽  
Virus Type ◽  
Statistical Technique ◽  
Individual Probability ◽  
Immunodeficiency Virus ◽  
Post Test ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Immunodeficiency Syndrome

Abstract Increased concentrations of neopterin, a marker for cell-mediated immune activation, and decreased numbers of CD4+ T cells, are predictors for progression of disease after infection with human immunodeficiency virus type 1. Previous studies have demonstrated different rates of onset of full-blown acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) for groups of patients, defined by laboratory marker values, who were initially symptom-free. By re-analysis of one such study, we demonstrate how for an individual patient, the individual marker values, together with a prior risk estimate, can be converted into current or accumulated post-test probability of onset of AIDS at a certain time. We used a statistical technique suggested by Albert et al. (Clin Chem 1984;30:69-76), which allows incorporation of fixed and time-dependent covariates. Besides allowing individual projections, the method shows that the predictive abilities of CD4+ T cell numbers and of neopterin concentrations do not vary greatly with regard to time of observation; both laboratory markers independently modulate the underlying prior probability of AIDS onset, which is significantly increased with the passage of time.

Effect of hemostatic risk factors on the individual probability of thrombosis during pregnancy and the puerperium

2003 ◽  
Vol 90 (07) ◽  
pp. 77-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Gerhardt ◽  
Rainer Zotz ◽  
Rüdiger Scharf
Keyword(s):  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Factor V Leiden ◽  
Factor V ◽  
G20210a Mutation ◽  
Individual Probability ◽  
History Of ◽  
Normal Women ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Von Willebrand

SummaryIn a retrospective study of 190 women with a first history of venous thromboembolism during pregnancy and the puerperium and 190 age-matched women with at least one prior pregnancy and no history of venous thromboembolism, the individual probability of thrombosis was determined. Assuming an overall risk of 1 in 1500 pregnancies, the probability of pregnancy-related thrombosis in carriers of homozygous factor V Leiden was 1 in 80 (odds ratio 20.6, p=0.005) and among carriers of combined heterozygous factor V Leiden and heterozygous G20210A mutation in the prothrombin gene 1 in 20 (odds ratio 88, p<0.001). The probability of thrombosis per pregnancy among women with elevated levels of factor VIII:C (>172 % activity) was 1 in 385 (odds ratio 4.5, p<0.001) and among those with increased levels of von Willebrand factor antigen (>190 %) 1 in 435 (odds ratio 4.0, p=0.002), independent of elevated factor VIII:C levels. The high prevalence of combined and homozygous defects of hemostatic components (21.6%) in patients as compared with normal women (0.86%) supports the concept that venous thromboembolism is a multicausal disorder.

Graduates and Active Labour Market Programmes: Evidence of Deactivation

2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Stephens
Keyword(s):  
Labour Market ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Active Labour ◽  
Individual Probability ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Depth Interviews ◽  
Active Labour Market Programmes ◽  
Job Prospects

This paper explores the experiences of graduates who participated in a range of Active Labour Market Programmes (ALMPs) in Ireland. The paper uses narrative structuring to provide an enhanced understanding of the graduates' experiences. A review of the literature indicates that most empirical studies of the effects of ALMPs are quantitative. Typically, the studies evaluate whether participation in a programme increases the individual probability of leaving unemployment. This paper argues that other, softer outcomes must also be studied if the impact of ALMPs is to be properly understood. The author therefore adopts a qualitative approach to examine the impact of ALMPs on graduates. The data collected during in-depth interviews indicate a mixed picture. While graduates found their experiences during the ALMPs positive in the main, the impact on their outlook and job prospects is not encouraging. Too often, the graduates express a view that the ALMPs are a ‘short-term fix’, offering little prospect of secure employment. The paper identifies the potential problem of deactivation in addition to the problems of deadweight loss, substitution and displacement reported by Fraser (1999).

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