Remaining useful life prediction of rolling bearings based on the three-parameter Weibull distribution proportional hazards model

2020 ◽  
Vol 62 (12) ◽  
pp. 710-718
Author(s):  
Ye Wang ◽  
Zhixiong Chen ◽  
Yang Zhang ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Zhixiong Li
Keyword(s):  
Weibull Distribution ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Rolling Bearings ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Intelligent Maintenance ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Essential Knowledge

In order to accurately predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of rolling bearings, a novel method based on the threeparameter Weibull distribution proportional hazards model (WPHM) is proposed in this paper. In this new method, degradation features of the bearing vibration signals were calculated in the time, frequency and time-frequency domains and treated as the input covariates of the predictive WPHM. Essential knowledge of the bearing degradation dynamics was learnt from the input features to build an effective three-parameter WPHM for bearing RUL prediction. Experimental data acquired from the run-to-failure bearing tests of the intelligent maintenance system (IMS) was used to evaluate the proposed method. The analysis results demonstrate that the proposed model is able to produce accurate RUL prediction for the tested bearings and outperforms the popular two-parameter WPHM.

scholarly journals An Inference-based Prognostic Framework for Health Management of Automotive Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chaitanya Sankavaram ◽  
Anuradha Kodali ◽  
Krishna Pattipati ◽  
Satnam Singh ◽  
Yilu Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Failure Time ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Survival Functions ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Automotive Systems ◽  
Multiple Fault Diagnosis ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Useful Life

This paper presents a unified data-driven prognostic framework that combines failure time data, static parameter data and dynamic time-series data. The framework employs proportional hazards model and a soft dynamic multiple fault diagnosis algorithm for inferring the degraded state trajectories of components and to estimate their remaining useful life times. The framework takes into account the cross-subsystem fault propagation, a case prevalent in any networked and embedded system. The key idea is to use Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the survival functions of error codes and symptoms (probabilistic test outcomes/prognostic indicators) from failure time data and static parameter data, and use them to infer the survival functions of components via soft dynamic multiple fault diagnosis algorithm. The average remaining useful life and its higher-order central moments (e.g., variance, skewness, kurtosis) can be estimated from these component survival functions. The framework is demonstrated on datasets derived from two automotive systems, namely hybrid electric vehicle regenerative braking system, and an electronic throttle control subsystem simulator. Although the proposed framework is validated on automotive systems, it has the potential to be applicable to a wide variety of systems, ranging from aerospace systems to buildings to power grids.

Remaining useful life prediction of lubricating oil with dynamic principal component analysis and proportional hazards model

2019 ◽  
Vol 234 (6) ◽  
pp. 964-971
Author(s):  
Ying Du ◽  
Tonghai Wu ◽  
Shengxi Zhou ◽  
Viliam Makis
Keyword(s):  
Condition Monitoring ◽  
Life Prediction ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Lubricating Oil ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Dynamic Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Useful Life

Lubricating oil contains a lot of tribological information of the machine and plays an important role in machine health. Oil degrades with serving time and causes severe wear afterwards, which is a complex dynamic process, and difficult to be accurately described by a single property. Therefore, the main purpose of deterioration prediction is to estimate the remaining useful life that the oil can still fulfill its functions by analyzing oil condition monitoring data. With a large amount of oil condition monitoring data collected, a vector autoregressive model is applied to the original oil data to describe the dynamic deterioration process. Then dynamic principal component analysis, an effective dimensionality reduction method, is employed to obtain the principal components capturing the most information of the oil data. The proportional hazards model is then built to calculate the failure risk of the lubricating oil based on the condition monitoring information, where its baseline function represents the aging process assuming to follow the Weibull distribution and its positive link function represents the influence of covariates (the principal components) on the failure risk. Finally, the remaining useful life prediction of lubricating oil can be obtained by explicit formulas of the characteristics such as the conditional reliability function and the mean residual life function. This work provides an approach to assess the health of lubricating oil, and a guidance for oil maintenance strategy.

A Predictive Tool for Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Rotating Machinery Components

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haitao Liao ◽  
Hai Qiu ◽  
Jay Lee ◽  
Daming Lin ◽  
Dragan Banjevic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Predictive Tool ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
On Line ◽  
Likelihood Approach ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
The Mean

This paper introduces a model for multiple degradation features of an individual component. The maximum likelihood approach is employed to estimate the model parameters. Afterwards, a proportional hazards model is presented, which considers hard failures and multiple degradation features simultaneously. The integrated model enables us to predict the mean remaining useful life of a component based on on-line degradation information. An example for bearing prognostic is provided to demonstrate the proposed models in practical use.

scholarly journals Predicting Remaining Useful Life of Rolling Bearings Based on Reliable Degradation Indicator and Temporal Convolution Network with the Quantile Regression

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 4773
Author(s):  
Qiaoping Tian ◽  
Honglei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Probability Density ◽  
Degradation Process ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Health State ◽  
Rolling Bearings ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Degradation Indicator

High precision and multi information prediction results of bearing remaining useful life (RUL) can effectively describe the uncertainty of bearing health state and operation state. Aiming at the problem of feature efficient extraction and RUL prediction during rolling bearings operation degradation process, through data reduction and key features mining analysis, a new feature vector based on time-frequency domain joint feature is found to describe the bearings degradation process more comprehensively. In order to keep the effective information without increasing the scale of neural network, a joint feature compression calculation method based on redefined degradation indicator (DI) was proposed to determine the input data set. By combining the temporal convolution network with the quantile regression (TCNQR) algorithm, the probability density forecasting at any time is achieved based on kernel density estimation (KDE) for the conditional distribution of predicted values. The experimental results show that the proposed method can obtain the point prediction results with smaller errors. Compared with the existing quantile regression of long short-term memory network(LSTMQR), the proposed method can construct more accurate prediction interval and probability density curve, which can effectively quantify the uncertainty of bearing running state.

scholarly journals Remaining Useful Life Prediction and Fault Diagnosis of Rolling Bearings Based on Short-Time Fourier Transform and Convolutional Neural Network

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Shuang Zhou ◽  
Maohua Xiao ◽  
Petr Bartos ◽  
Martin Filip ◽  
Guosheng Geng
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Fault Diagnosis ◽  
Life Prediction ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Fault Identification ◽  
Rolling Bearings ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Diagnosis Method ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Short Time

Rolling bearings play a pivotal role in rotating machinery. The remaining useful life prediction and fault diagnosis of bearings are crucial to condition-based maintenance. However, traditional data-driven methods usually require manual extraction of features, which needs rich signal processing theory as support and is difficult to control the efficiency. In this study, a bearing remaining life prediction and fault diagnosis method based on short-time Fourier transform (STFT) and convolutional neural network (CNN) has been proposed. First, the STFT was adopted to construct time-frequency maps of the unprocessed original vibration signals that can ensure the true and effective recovery of the fault characteristics in vibration signals. Then, the training time-frequency maps were used as an input of the CNN to train the network model. Finally, the time-frequency maps of testing signals were inputted into the network model to complete the life prediction or fault identification of rolling bearings. The rolling bearing life-cycle datasets from the Intelligent Management System were applied to verify the proposed life prediction method, showing that its accuracy reaches 99.45%, and the prediction effect is good. Multiple sets of validation experiments were conducted to verify the proposed fault diagnosis method with the open datasets from Case Western Reserve University. Results show that the proposed method can effectively identify the fault classification and the accuracy can reach 95.83%. The comparison with the fault diagnosis classification effects of backpropagation (BP) neural network, particle swarm optimization-BP, and genetic algorithm-BP further proves its superiority. The proposed method in this paper is proved to have strong ability of adaptive feature extraction, life prediction, and fault identification.

Methods for displaying and calibration of Cox proportional hazards models

2017 ◽  
Vol 232 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-115
Author(s):  
Chrianna I Bharat ◽  
Kevin Murray ◽  
Edward Cripps ◽  
Melinda R Hodkiewicz
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Proportional Hazards Models ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Models

Cox proportional hazards modelling is a widely used technique for determining relationships between observed data and the risk of asset failure when model performance is satisfactory. Cox proportional hazards models possess good explanatory power and are used by asset managers to gain insight into factors influencing asset life. However, validation of Cox proportional hazards models is not straightforward and is seldom considered in the maintenance literature. A comprehensive validation process is a necessary foundation to build trust in the failure models that underpin remaining useful life prediction. This article describes data splitting, model discrimination, misspecification and fit methods necessary to build trust in the ability of a Cox proportional hazards model to predict failures on out-of-sample assets. Specifically, we consider (1) Prognostic Index comparison for training and test sets, (2) Kaplan–Meier curves for different risk bands, (3) hazard ratios across different risk bands and (4) calibration of predictions using cross-validation. A Cox proportional hazards model on an industry data set of water pipe assets is used for illustrative purposes. Furthermore, because we are dealing with a non-statistical managerial audience, we demonstrate how graphical techniques, such as forest plots and nomograms, can be used to present prediction results in an easy to interpret way.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document