scholarly journals Territorial impacts of sea-level rise in marsh environments. The case of the Bay of Cádiz, Spain

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
F.J. Vázquez Pinillos ◽  
M.J. Marchena Gómez
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Territorial Planning ◽  
Natural Park ◽  
Bay Of Cadiz ◽  
Bay Of Cádiz ◽  
Climate Crisis ◽  
New Situation

How can sea-level rise affect territory? Has territorial planning adjusted to this new situation? This paper analyses the possible ramifications of changes in tidal recurrence over the course of this century in a potentially vulnerable marsh environment, such as the Bay of Cádiz, in southern Spain, where sea-level rise is already a fact. For that purpose, the regionalisation criterion is used as a basis for adjusting the magnitude of global problems to subregional scale. Geographic information systems are applied to portray the forecasted territorial changes according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the years 2050 and 2100. Projections of sea-level rise show that the tide is travelling farther inland, not just invading unoccupied areas of marshes and beaches but also reaching urban and productive areas. Estimates indicate that the floodable area could expand by more than 20% in 2050, with a further 2,000 ha of flooded areas added in 2100 for either of the two scenarios used. The occurrence of these changes, regardless of the model used, would therefore entail an alteration of the environmental, social, cultural and economic values and elements of the Bay of Cádiz, with the Natural Park being the most affected area. In response to these consequences, the need to apply the resulting projections to other variables is insisted on, with a view to introducing territorial management tailored to this new and already present reality. Application of the regionalisation criterion to study repercussions of the climate crisis in the Bay of Cádiz could serve as a precedent for the development of adaptation strategies in other marsh environments at subregional or local level.

scholarly journals Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea level rise during the last interglacial period: a modelling study driven and constrained by ice core data

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 353-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Quiquet ◽  
C. Ritz ◽  
H. J. Punge ◽  
D. Salas y Mélia
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Interglacial Period ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Orbital Configuration ◽  
Global Sea Level

Abstract. As pointed out by the forth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC-AR4 (Meehl et al., 2007), the contribution of the two major ice sheets, Antarctica and Greenland, to global sea level rise, is a subject of key importance for the scientific community. By the end of the next century, a 3–5 °C warming is expected in Greenland. Similar temperatures in this region were reached during the last interglacial (LIG) period, 130–115 ka BP, due to a change in orbital configuration rather than to an anthropogenic forcing. Ice core evidence suggests that the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) survived this warm period, but great uncertainties remain about the total Greenland ice reduction during the LIG. Here we perform long-term simulations of the GIS using an improved ice sheet model. Both the methodologies chosen to reconstruct palaeoclimate and to calibrate the model are strongly based on proxy data. We suggest a relatively low contribution to LIG sea level rise from Greenland melting, ranging from 0.7 to 1.5 m of sea level equivalent, contrasting with previous studies. Our results suggest an important contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to the LIG highstand.

Using subsidence scenarios to assess flood risk to delta cities under future sea level rise.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Ground Water ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Policy Intervention ◽  
Local Policy ◽  
Vertical Land Motion ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Climate Crisis

<p>City level coastal subsidence can be caused by a number of factors, both natural (e.g. compaction) and anthropogenic (e.g. ground water extraction). Past observations in cities indicates that the rate of subsidence can be altered through policy intervention (e.g. Tokyo's ban on ground water pumping in 1970's). Given vertical land motion is a key component in local sea level projections where subsidence amplifies the onset of future damages, we test the extent to which intervention could reduce risk with a simple city level coastal damage model. We adjust water levels to embed different time dependent subsidence scenarios over the 21st century. We contend that local policy intervention to slow anthropogenic subsidence where possible will slow the onset of damaging sea level rise thus reducing potential coastal damages, and reduce the required increases in future flood protection heights. Performed in tandem with global mitigation efforts, cities currently under major threat may yet survive the climate crisis.</p>

Ice sheet mass balance and sea level

2009 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 413-426 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Allison ◽  
R.B. Alley ◽  
H.A. Fricker ◽  
R.H. Thomas ◽  
R.C. Warner
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Measurement Technology ◽  
Satellite Gravity ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Ice Sheet Mass Balance

AbstractDetermining the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GIS and AIS) has long been a major challenge for polar science. But until recent advances in measurement technology, the uncertainty in ice sheet mass balance estimates was greater than any net contribution to sea level change. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR4) was able, for the first time, to conclude that, taken together, the GIS and AIS have probably been contributing to sea level rise over the period 1993–2003 at an average rate estimated at 0.4 mm yr-1. Since the cut-off date for work included in AR4, a number of further studies of the mass balance of GIS and AIS have been made using satellite altimetry, satellite gravity measurements and estimates of mass influx and discharge using a variety of techniques. Overall, these studies reinforce the conclusion that the ice sheets are contributing to present sea level rise, and suggest that the rate of loss from GIS has recently increased. The largest unknown in the projections of sea level rise over the next century is the potential for rapid dynamic collapse of ice sheets.

scholarly journals Assessment of island beach erosion due to sea level rise: the case of the Aegean archipelago (Eastern Mediterranean)

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 449-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isavela N. Monioudi ◽  
Adonis F. Velegrakis ◽  
Antonis E. Chatzipavlis ◽  
Anastasios Rigos ◽  
Theophanis Karambas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Coastal Development ◽  
Beach Erosion ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Economic Resource

Abstract. The present contribution constitutes the first comprehensive attempt to (a) record the spatial characteristics of the beaches of the Aegean archipelago (Greece), a critical resource for both the local and national economy, and (b) provide a rapid assessment of the impacts of the long-term and episodic sea level rise (SLR) under different scenarios. Spatial information and other attributes (e.g., presence of coastal protection works and backshore development) of the beaches of the 58 largest islands of the archipelago were obtained on the basis of remote-sensed images available on the web. Ranges of SLR-induced beach retreats under different morphological, sedimentological and hydrodynamic forcing, and SLR scenarios were estimated using suitable ensembles of cross-shore (1-D) morphodynamic models. These ranges, combined with empirically derived estimations of wave run-up induced flooding, were then compared with the recorded maximum beach widths to provide ranges of retreat/erosion and flooding at the archipelago scale. The spatial information shows that the Aegean pocket beaches may be particularly vulnerable to mean sea level rise (MSLR) and episodic SLRs due to (i) their narrow widths (about 59 % of the beaches have maximum widths < 20 m), (ii) their limited terrestrial sediment supply, (iii) the substantial coastal development and (iv) the limited existing coastal protection. Modeling results indeed project severe impacts under mean and episodic SLRs, which by 2100 could be devastating. For example, under MSLR of 0.5 m – representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) – a storm-induced sea level rise of 0.6 m is projected to result in a complete erosion of between 31 and 88 % of all beaches (29–87 % of beaches are currently fronting coastal infrastructure and assets), at least temporarily. Our results suggest a very considerable risk which will require significant effort, financial resources and policies/regulation in order to protect/maintain the critical economic resource of the Aegean archipelago.

scholarly journals A biological indicator for measuring and communicating local sea level rise captured in historic photographs.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Max Rouja ◽  
Craig W Schneider ◽  
Vid Petrovic ◽  
Steve Blasco ◽  
Eric Lo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Biological Indicator ◽  
Rocky Intertidal ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Blue Green Algae ◽  
Digital Twin ◽  
Upward Shift ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract This paper explores a novel approach to collecting and communicating local site-specific data on recent sea level rise (SLR) using black zone biotic levels left on historic coastal stone structures by a stable community of cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) at the Royal Naval Dockyard in Bermuda. Photographs taken at the Dockyard in 1870, 2007 and 2017 show an upward shift in this living cyanobacterial community. A spatio-temporal digital twin computed from historic and contemporary photo assets was created to test the viability of these black zone lines as a proxy for sea level rise (SLR) measurements in Bermuda. Shifts in these black zone lines when analyzed through the digital twin demonstrate an average upward shift of 2.2 mm per year between 1870 and 2007 and 2.7 mm per year between 1870 and 2017, somewhat lower than the Global estimates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report predictions. However, the digital twin showed a dramatic upward shift of 8.8 cm between 2007 and 2017, or 8.8 mm per year, which coincided with Bermuda's highest recorded tidal extent since 1932. Black zone cyanobacteria are highly SLR sensitive and over long time scales comparative imagery of black zones could present a proper indicator of average sea level rise. At timescales less than 10 years the black zone may be best indicative of episodic tidal extent. As SLR will continue to shift supralittoral cyanobacteria upwards in Bermuda and in warm rocky intertidal zones worldwide, tidal monitoring and black zone assessments may prove to be a useful combination in documenting and communicating the reality, extent and possible acceleration of local SLR.

scholarly journals Adaptive Capacity Mapping of Semarang Offshore Territory by the Increasing of Water Level and Climate Change

2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
Ifan Ridlo Suhelm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Educational Background ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Village

Tidal inundation, flood and land subsidence are the problems faced by Semarang city related to climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted the increase of sea level rise 18-59 cm during 1990-2100 while the temperature increase 0,6°C to 4°C during the same period. The Semarang coastal city was highly vulnerable to sea level rise and it increased with two factors, topography and land subsidence. The purpose of this study was to map the adaptive capacity of coastal areas in the face of the threat of disasters caused by climate change. The parameters used are Network Number, Employee based educational background, Source Main Livelihoods, Health Facilities, and Infrastructure Road. Adaptive capacity of regions classified into 3 (three) classes, namely low, medium and high. The results of the study showed that most of the coastal area of Semarang have adaptive capacities ranging from low to moderate, while the village with low capacity totaling 58 villages (58.62%) of the total coastal district in the city of Semarang.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Coastal Vulnerability to the Ongoing Sea Level Rise for the Exquisite Rhodes Island (SE Aegean Sea, Greece)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 2169
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Vandarakis ◽  
Ioannis P. Panagiotopoulos ◽  
Vassiliki Loukaidi ◽  
Georgios-Angelos Hatiris ◽  
Paraskevi Drakopoulou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Private Property ◽  
Aegean Sea ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Coastal Vulnerability ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Physical Impact ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
Natural Losses

The foreseeable acceleration of global sea level rise could potentially pose a major threat to the natural charm and functional integrity of the world-renowned tourist coastal attractions of Rhodes Island, as a result of the anticipated increasing frequency of flooding and erosion events. Hence, this study aims to determine the most vulnerable segments (in terms of physical impact) of the Rhodes coastline through the widely accepted coastal vulnerability index (CVI), applying a combination of well-known, broadly used approaches and methods. The frequency distribution of the current CVI along the island’s coastline suggests a rather worrying high to very high vulnerability of 40%. In addition, a CVI projection to the end of the 21st century (based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictive scenarios) indicates an enhancement of the total vulnerability by 48%, mainly focused on the majority of the western coastline. Hence, a considerable number of popular coastal destinations in the island shall remain under unignorable threat and, therefore, coastal managers and decision-makers need to hatch an integrated plan to minimize economic and natural losses, private property damage and tourism infrastructure deterioration from flooding and erosion episodes, which will most likely be intensified in the future.

Beach nourishment versus sea level rise on Florida’s coasts

Shore & Beach ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 3-13
Author(s):  
James Houston
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Beach Nourishment ◽  
Shoreline Change ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Shoreline Changes ◽  
The Past ◽  
Equilibrium Profile ◽  
And Sea Level

Beach nourishment and sea level rise will dominate future shoreline changes on Florida’s 665 miles of sandy coast. Shoreline changes from 2020-2100 are projected along this entire coast using equilibrium profile theory that accurately predicted shoreline changes on Florida’s east coast from 1970-2017 (Houston 2019). Projections for 2020- 2100 are made assuming past rates of beach nourishment for the 30-yr period from 1988-2017 will continue and sea level will rise according to recent projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that include the latest knowledge on ice melting in Antarctica (IPCC 2019). Using the beach nourishment and sea level rise data, equilibrium profile theory is then used to predict shoreline change from 2020-2100 for each IPCC sea level rise projection. Beach nourishment is shown to produce shoreline advance seaward on average for all IPCC scenarios for both the entire Florida coast and east coast and for all scenarios except the upper confidence level of the worst scenario for the southwest and Panhandle coasts. Some of the 30 counties on these coasts will require a greater rate of nourishment than in the past to offset sea level rise for some or all of the scenarios, whereas some will offset sea level rise for all scenarios with lower nourishment rates than in the past. The annual beach nourishment volume for which a county has a shortfall or surplus in offsetting sea level rise for each IPCC scenario can be calculated with the information provided and examples are presented. The approach can be used on coasts outside Florida if beach nourishment and sea level rise are expected to dominate future shoreline change.

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