Measuring community support for tobacco tax measures: Results from a community survey on support for increased tobacco taxes in Vietnam

BackgroundThere is strong evidence from many settings that tobacco tax rises which increase prices reduce tobacco consumption, but only limited evidence from Indigenous settings.MethodsWe analysed 3 years (2016–2018) of weekly sales data from 32 stores in remote Aboriginal communities. We used interrupted time series analysis to estimate the immediate impact of the price rice following annual 12.5% tobacco tax rises on sales on (A) stick equivalents of tobacco and (B) fruit and vegetables (kg) per $A1000 of grocery sales, and on the trend in sales between price rises.ResultsWe detected 5.8% and 8.2% immediate declines in tobacco sales following the price rises associated with annual 12.5% tax rises in 2016 and 2018, and a non-significant decline (1.6%) following the 2017 tax rise. Decreased sales were mainly driven by declines in mainstream and premium factory-made cigarettes. Fruit and vegetable sales did not change at the time of tobacco price rises.ConclusionFor the first time, we demonstrated evidence of price-sensitivity and the immediate impact of price rises from tobacco tax rises on tobacco sales in remote Aboriginal communities. We acknowledge that Australia already has very high tobacco taxation and prices, but recommend further increases to the taxation of roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco to prevent smokers and industry using cheaper RYO cigarettes to undermine this impact of high tobacco taxes and prices.

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Differential price responses for tobacco consumption: implications for tax incidence

Tobacco Control ◽

10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056846 ◽

2022 ◽

pp. tobaccocontrol-2021-056846

Author(s):

Guillermo Cruces ◽

Guillermo Falcone ◽

Jorge Puig

Keyword(s):

Income Distribution ◽

Age Groups ◽

Cost Effective ◽

Tobacco Consumption ◽

Price Elasticities ◽

Tobacco Taxes ◽

Household Expenditure Survey ◽

Tobacco Tax ◽

Effective Policy ◽

Demand Price Elasticity

Increasing tobacco taxes is considered the most effective an cost-eﬀective policy to reduce tobacco consumption. However, a common objection to tobacco taxes is that they tend to rely disproportionately on the poorest individuals since less affluent smokers incur proportionately greater expenditures on cigarettes compared with more affluent smokers. Such objections usually assume that all smokers throughout the income distribution react similarly to an increase in tobacco prices. But, if less affluent smokers are more sensitive to price changes (ie, they have a higher demand price elasticity), reductions in tobacco consumption should be higher at the bottom of the income distribution. This paper uses data from Argentina’s Household Expenditure Survey to estimate demand price elasticities for tobacco by income and age groups. Results indicate that less affluent smokers present higher demand price elasticities for cigarettes than more affluent ones. A 10% increase in cigarette prices would decrease consumption by 8.5% (4.4%) for the poorest (richest) smokers. In addition, young people are the most elastic group. These differential elasticities have relevant implications in terms of the distributional incidence of increasing tobacco taxes. As less well-off individuals reduce consumption relatively more, they bear a relatively lower tax burden. Thus, tobacco tax increases may not be regressive as is often believed. As a whole, this paper provides policymakers with relevant arguments for policy discussion and the public debate on common objections to increasing tobacco taxes.

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Smoke signals: monitoring illicit cigarettes and smoking behaviour in Colombia to support tobacco taxes

Tobacco Control ◽

10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054820 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 29 (Suppl 4) ◽

pp. s243-s248 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Norman Maldonado ◽

Blanca Llorente ◽

Diego Escobar ◽

Roberto Magno Iglesias

Keyword(s):

Smoking Behaviour ◽

Self Report ◽

Sampling Frame ◽

Cross Sectional Survey ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Excise Tax ◽

Tobacco Taxes ◽

Tobacco Tax ◽

Second Wave ◽

Consumption Intensity

BackgroundA street cross-sectional survey in 2016 with a representative sample of 1697 smokers in five Colombian cities was used to estimate the penetration of illicit cigarettes (PIC). The first wave was collected 3 months before a 100% increase in tobacco excise tax, and a second wave collected data 9 months after tax reform was effective.Objective Analyse changes after a cigarette tax increase in PIC, prices and smoking behaviour patterns for five Colombian cities (63% of the market). Smoking behaviour includes consumption intensity, presentation (stick/pack) and place of purchase.Methods Repeated street cross-sectional survey with smokers’ self-report on smoking behaviour, last purchase information and direct observation of smokers’ packs. Sampling frame: smokers, men and women, aged 12 years or older, all income levels, resident in the five cities with the highest number of smokers representing 63% of cigarette market share (Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, Cartagena and Cúcuta) with 1 733 316 smokers in 2013. Sample size was 1697 per wave, with confidence level 95%, margin of error 3.5% for Bogotá and Medellín and 5% for the other three cities. Smokers in second wave match first wave’s location, sex and age group. Illicit cigarettes were identified based on brand, health warnings and price.Results After the tax hike, the average real price of a 20-stick pack increased by 28.2% and by 23.1% for loose cigarettes. Illicit cigarettes represented 3.4% of total cigarette consumption in 2016 and increased to 6.4% in 2017, lower than the current industry estimate of 18%. Consumption intensity decreased: the proportion of heavy smokers (more than 10 cigarettes per day) wentdown from 37% in 2016 to 26% in 2017.ConclusionAfter the tax increase, Colombia’s PIC remained at low levels, and there is enough space for new tobacco tax hikes.

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Taxing times? Smoker response to tax increases

Ethnicity and Inequalities in Health and Social Care ◽

10.1108/eihsc-08-2013-0014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 36-48 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Nathan Cowie ◽

Marewa Glover ◽

Dudley Gentles

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Low Income ◽

Effective Means ◽

Content Type ◽

Deprived Neighbourhoods ◽

Tobacco Taxes ◽

Price Increases ◽

Tobacco Tax ◽

Adaptive Behaviours ◽

The Impact

Purpose – Taxing tobacco is one of the most effective means to reduce smoking but concerns about the impact on poor smokers are a barrier. New Zealand resumed increasing tobacco taxes in April 2010. The paper hypothesised smokers would attempt to stop smoking and/or adapt, changing their smoking behaviours in response to price increases. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The authors conducted a door knock survey of smokers and recent ex-smokers who were home when visited. Participants (n=428) were from socioeconomically deprived neighbourhoods of Auckland with large proportions of Māori and Pacific Island people. Findings – Many smokers (66 per cent) attempted to quit an average of 3 times. More than 40 per cent stopped for at least 24 hours without intending to quit altogether, monthly or more. Consumption reduced among 40 per cent of participants, by an average 7.1 cigarettes daily. More than a fifth of participants switched to cheaper brands. Switching from factory made cigarettes to roll your own tobacco (6 per cent) or vice versa (5 per cent) was uncommon. Research limitations/implications – The method resulted in a low response rate. Tobacco tax is associated with reduced consumption and high levels of frequent quit attempts in socioeconomically deprived communities therefore our study supports tax increases as a means of reducing smoking. Originality/value – This is the first paper to investigate the effect of large recent New Zealand tobacco tax increases on low-income smokers’ adaptive behaviours.

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Limited implementation of the framework convention on tobacco control’s tobacco tax provision: global comparison

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2017-021340 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 8 (10) ◽

pp. e021340 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Heikki Hiilamo ◽

Stanton Glantz

Keyword(s):

Tobacco Control ◽

Tax Rates ◽

Tax Rate ◽

Tobacco Taxes ◽

Global Comparison ◽

Tobacco Tax ◽

Control Community ◽

Basic Functions ◽

Political Economic ◽

Technical Capacity

ObjectiveTo quantify changes in tobacco tax rates and cigarette affordability after countries ratified the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) using with the WHO MPOWER standards.MethodsWe used logistic regression to assess the association of FCTC ratification with adoption of at least 50% and 75% (high) of retail price tobacco tax rates for the most sold brands in countries, accounting for years since ratification and other covariates. We also compared cigarette affordability in 2014 with 1999.ResultsBy 2014, 44% of high-income countries had taxes above 75% of retail value compared with 18% in 1998/1999. In 15 years, 69 countries increased the tobacco tax rate, 33 decreased it and one had the same tax rate. FCTC ratification was not associated with implementing high tobacco taxes. More fragile countries in terms of security, political, economic and social development were less likely to have at least 50% and 75% tobacco tax rates in 2014 compared with 1999. The higher the cigarette prices in 1999 the less likely the countries were to have at least 75% tobacco tax rates in 2014. However, cigarettes were less affordable in 2014 than in 1999 in countries that had ratified FCTC earlier.ConclusionsDespite widespread FCTC ratification, implementing higher tobacco taxes remains incomplete. Guidelines for FCTC Article 6 implementation should assign definite targets for tobacco taxes and for implementation of a tax escalator that gradually increases taxes to match rising income levels. Fragile countries are less likely to have high tobacco taxes and less affordable cigarettes. The tobacco control community should intensify efforts to help fragile countries improve performance in FCTC implementation both through strengthening their administrative and technical capacity and through supporting basic functions of government.

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Questioning the regressivity of tobacco taxes: a distributional accounting impact model of increased tobacco taxation

Tobacco Control ◽

10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2019-055315 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. tobaccocontrol-2019-055315 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Stéphane Verguet ◽

Patrick K A Kearns ◽

Vaughan W Rees

Keyword(s):

Low Income ◽

Cost Effective ◽

Income Group ◽

Cigarette Consumption ◽

Tax Burden ◽

Income Share ◽

Tobacco Taxes ◽

Tobacco Tax ◽

Definition Of ◽

Tobacco Taxation

BackgroundTobacco taxes, as with other ‘sin taxes’, are generally regarded as a highly cost-effective mechanism to reduce consumption but are often considered by policymakers to be regressive, undermining efforts to fully implement them at levels recommended by the WHO due to concerns of fairness. We aim to demonstrate whether there are circumstances in which the impacts of additional tobacco taxes are not regressive, using a standard income-share accounting definition of tax burden.Methods and findingsWe apply mathematical modelling and explore the hypothetical distributions in the net change in tobacco taxes and cigarette expenditures by income group, following an increase in tobacco taxation. The hypothetical distribution per income group of additional taxes and cigarette expenditures borne by individuals following tobacco tax hikes was calculated with respect to a selection of parameters including: the change in the retail price of cigarettes, the price elasticity of demand for tobacco, smoking prevalence, cigarette consumption and individual income. We determine the range of hypothetical parameter values for which increased tobacco taxation should not be considered to penalise the poorest income groups when examining marginal cigarette consumption expenditures and using an accounting definition of tax burden.ConclusionsOur findings question the doctrine that tobacco taxes are uniformly regressive from a standard income-share accounting view and point to the importance of the specific features of tax policy to shape a progressive approach to tobacco taxation: tobacco tax increases are less likely to be regressive when accompanied by a broad framework of demand-side measures that enhance the capacity of low-income smokers to quit tobacco use.

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Tobacco tax evasion in Western Balkan countries: tax evasion prevalence and evasion determinants

Tobacco Control ◽

10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-056879 ◽

2022 ◽

pp. tobaccocontrol-2021-056879

Author(s):

Marko Vladisavljevic ◽

Jovan Zubović ◽

Olivera Jovanovic ◽

Mihajlo Djukic ◽

Natasa Trajkova Najdovska ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tobacco Control ◽

Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽

Low Income ◽

Tax Evasion ◽

Choice Model ◽

Control Measure ◽

Tobacco Products ◽

Tobacco Taxes ◽

Illicit Market ◽

Tobacco Tax

Background and objectiveTobacco tax evasion undermines the goal of tobacco taxes as a tobacco control measure to make tobacco products less affordable, increases the health risks for those who smoke and decreases the government revenue. This paper analyses the tobacco tax evasion in six Western Balkan (WB) countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. The aim of this research is to estimate the size of the illicit market and identify the main determinants of tax evasion activities in the Southeastern European region.Data and methodsData from 2019 Survey on Tobacco Consumption in Southeastern Europe (STC-SEE) are used. STC-SEE provides uniquely comparable nationally representative data on smoking behaviour for adult (18–85 years old) population for each country. Tax evasion is defined on the basis of available information on tax stamps, health warnings, price and the place of purchase, in accordance with the previous research on tax evasion. In order to estimate the determinants of illicit purchases we use binary choice model of tax evasion.ResultsThe study finds that 20.4% of all current smokers in WB countries evade taxes on tobacco products, with evasion being much more frequent for hand-rolled (HR) tobacco (86.7%) than for the manufactured cigarettes (MC) (8.6%). While HR is predominantly illicit in all six countries, MC evasion varies significantly, with evasion being significantly higher in Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Results further suggest that tax evasion is higher in the statistical regions where institutional capacities to tackle illicit trade are lower, in municipalities bordering countries with high MC evasion, as well as among smokers with low income, women and elderly. We also provide evidence that higher tobacco taxes and prices do not increase illicit consumption.ConclusionThe findings from the research suggest that in order to decrease tax evasion, governments should put additional effort to strengthen institutional capacities to tackle illicit tobacco markets. Furthermore, improving regional coordination in development and implementation of tobacco control policies, including the prevention of illicit market, is essential in lowering evasion in all WB countries. Finally, WB countries should regulate and enforce excise tax stamp requirements on the HR tobacco market to a much higher degree.

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Tobacco price elasticity in Serbia: evidence from a middle-income country with high prevalence and low tobacco prices

Tobacco Control ◽

10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2019-055262 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 29 (Suppl 5) ◽

pp. s331-s336 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Marko Vladisavljevic ◽

Jovan Zubović ◽

Mihajlo Đukić ◽

Olivera Jovanović

Keyword(s):

Price Elasticity ◽

Low Income ◽

Tobacco Consumption ◽

Reliable Estimate ◽

Demand Model ◽

Middle Income ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

Tobacco Taxes ◽

Tobacco Tax ◽

High Prevalence

In this paper, we use Deaton’s demand model and Household Budget Survey data from 2006 to 2017 to provide a first robust and reliable estimate of cigarettes price elasticity for Serbia. The case of Serbia is particularly interesting and important as it provides evidence for a country in which tobacco market is characterised by the high tobacco consumption, low prices and large perceived impact of multinational tobacco companies on public revenues, export and employment, given their considerable cigarette production in Serbia. The price elasticity of cigarettes is estimated at −0.639, in line with the previous estimates for the low-income and middle-income countries. Estimated negative cigarettes price elasticity for Serbia suggests that tobacco tax policy could be used effectively to reduce cigarette consumption in Serbia, which could lower the harmful health effects of cigarettes. Furthermore, a calculation based on the estimated elasticity suggests that increasing tobacco taxes could also have positive fiscal effects, as the expected revenue from the taxes would increase.

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Illicit tobacco trade in Georgia: prevalence and perceptions

Tobacco Control ◽

10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054839 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 29 (Suppl 4) ◽

pp. s227-s233 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Megan Little ◽

Hana Ross ◽

George Bakhturidze ◽

Iago Kachkachishvili

Keyword(s):

Low Income ◽

Household Survey ◽

Tobacco Consumption ◽

Middle Income ◽

Middle Income Countries ◽

Tobacco Taxes ◽

Tobacco Tax ◽

Illicit Tobacco Trade ◽

Multistage Sampling ◽

Cigarette Packs

BackgroundIn lower-income and middle-income countries, limited research exists on illicit tobacco trade and its responsiveness to taxation. Tobacco taxes are critical in reducing tobacco consumption, thereby improving public health. However, the tobacco industry claims that tax increases will increase illicit tobacco trade. Therefore, research evidence on the size of the illicit cigarette market is needed in Georgia and other low-income and middle-income countries to inform tobacco tax policies.MethodsIn 2017, a household survey using stratified multistage sampling was conducted in Georgia with 2997 smokers, to assess illicit tobacco consumption. Smokers were asked to show available cigarette packs to the surveyors. These were examined for tax stamps and health warnings which allowed for an assessment of illegal cigarette consumption in Georgia.FindingsThe packs shown to surveyors suggest illicit cigarette trade is low (1.5%), although with regional differences, as illicit cigarette packs were present in 6% of the households in Zugdidi. Most illicit cigarettes were purchased at kiosks or informal outlets. This estimate might be conservative, as 28% of respondents did not show any packs to the surveyors.ConclusionsDespite recent tobacco tax increases, illicit cigarette trade in Georgia seems to be negligible. The market is more vulnerable to illicit cigarette trade close to the border with Abkhazia (near Zugdidi). Tighter control or ban of tobacco sales at kiosks and informal outlets may reduce illicit cigarette trade. Further investigation is planned to better understand why a large proportion of survey participants said they had no pack available at home.

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Basic economic gap related to smoking: reconciling tobacco tax receipts and economic costs of smoking-attributable diseases

Tobacco Control ◽

10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054307 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 28 (5) ◽

pp. 558-561 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Petr David

Keyword(s):

Health Risks ◽

Input Data ◽

Health Expenditures ◽

Tobacco Consumption ◽

Tax Rates ◽

Economic Costs ◽

Tobacco Taxes ◽

Tobacco Tax ◽

The Usa ◽

The Difference

BackgroundTobacco tax rates set by various governments are not based on the idea that tax receipts should cover the costs incurred by smoking. It can be assumed that tobacco tax receipts (TTR) differ from the costs of smoking. The aim is to determine the global basic economic gap (BEG) between TTR and the economic costs of smoking-attributable diseases (ECS).MethodsBEG is described as the difference between the ECS and TTR. A total of 124 countries representing 94% of global tobacco consumption were included in the research by means of the creation of a database, the adjustment of input data and the identification of their intersection.ResultsThe global BEG reaches US$1438 billion per year. The global ECS are US$1911 billion per year. The global TTR are US$473 billion per year and compensate for only one quarter of the ECS. Within countries with the highest consumption of cigarettes, especially the USA but also Russia and Germany, the proportion of the ECS covered by the TTR is even lower, although private health expenditures have been taken into account.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that tobacco taxes would have to be globally increased by more than four times on average in order to cover the ECS or between two and two-and-a-half times if we take private health expenditures into account. The informational pressure concerning health risks associated with smoking aimed at reducing harmful consumption and improving global health can also be supported with these economic facts.

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