Forecasting Fire Risk in Forest Ecosystems Using Solar Activity Index

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (12) ◽  
pp. 60-64
Author(s):  
T.E. Katkova
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Activity Index ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Fire Dynamics ◽  
Minimum Solar Activity ◽  
Regional Forest

Improving forest ecosystems protection management based on a long-term fire hazard forecasting has been studied. Fires long-term dynamics in terms of quantity in various forests has been investigated. Fire risk patterns in forest ecosystems have been established conditional to regional characteristics due to solar period. Fire dynamics and solar periods analytics over multi-year period of time have brought to light that conditions contributing to a high fire frequency in Leningrad and Tver regional forest ecosystems arise in years with maximum and minimum solar activity. A long-term forecast of high forest fire danger periods for the next solar cycle has been performed through parameters of solar activity – Wolf numbers.

scholarly journals On the nonlinear and Solar-forced nature of the Chandler wobble in the Earth's pole motion

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmitry M. Sonechkin
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Activity Index ◽  
Nonlinear Differential Equations ◽  
Harmonic Oscillation ◽  
Chandler Wobble ◽  
The Sun ◽  
Solar Activity Index ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Rotation Of The Earth

Abstract. About 250 years ago L. Euler has derived a system of three quadratic-nonlinear differential equations to depict the rotation of the Earth as a rigid body. Neglecting a small distinction between the equatorial inertia moments, he reduced this system to much simpler linear one, and concluded that the Earth's pole must experience a harmonic oscillation of the 304-day period. Astronomers could not find this oscillation, but instead, S.C Chandler has found two powerful wobbles with the 12- and ~ 14-month periods in reality. Adhering to the Euler's linearization, astronomers can not explain the nature of the later wobble up to now. I indicate that the neglect by the above small distinction (“a small parameter” of the Euler's primary nonlinear equations) is not admissible because the effect of this parameter is singular. Analysing the primary equations by an asymptotic technique, I demonstrate that the Chandler wobble tones are formed from combinational harmonics of the Euler's 304-day oscillation, long-term Luni-Solar tides as well as the 22-year cycle of the heliomagnetic activity. Correlating simultaneous variations of the wobble and a solar activity index, I corroborate that the Chandler wobble is really affected by the Sun.

scholarly journals The Impacts of Wildfire Characteristics and Employment on the Adaptive Management Strategies in the Intermountain West

Fire ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liana Prudencio ◽  
Ryan Choi ◽  
Emily Esplin ◽  
Muyang Ge ◽  
Natalie Gillard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Management ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Fire Frequency ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Private Industry ◽  
Positive Effects

Widespread development and shifts from rural to urban areas within the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) has increased fire risks to local populations, as well as introduced complex and long-term costs and benefits to communities. We use an interdisciplinary approach to investigate how trends in fire characteristics influence adaptive management and economies in the Intermountain Western US (IMW). Specifically, we analyze area burned and fire frequency in the IMW over time, how fires in urban or rural settings influence local economies and whether fire trends and economic impacts influence managers’ perspectives and adaptive decision-making. Our analyses showed some increasing fire trends at multiple levels. Using a non-parametric event study model, we evaluated the effects of fire events in rural and urban areas on county-level private industry employment, finding short- and long-term positive effects of fire on employment at several scales and some short-term negative effects for specific sectors. Through interviewing 20 fire managers, we found that most recognize increasing fire trends and that there are both positive and negative economic effects of fire. We also established that many of the participants are implementing adaptive fire management strategies and we identified key challenges to mitigating increasing fire risk in the IMW.

scholarly journals Application of the Socio-Ecological System Framework to Forest Fire Risk Management: A Systematic Literature Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingrid Vigna ◽  
Angelo Besana ◽  
Elena Comino ◽  
Alessandro Pezzoli
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Community Involvement ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
Wildfire Risk ◽  
Starting Point

Although increasing concern about climate change has raised awareness of the fundamental role of forest ecosystems, forests are threatened by human-induced impacts worldwide. Among them, wildfire risk is clearly the result of the interaction between human activities, ecological domains, and climate. However, a clear understanding of these interactions is still needed both at the global and local levels. Numerous studies have proven the validity of the socioecological system (SES) approach in addressing this kind of interdisciplinary issue. Therefore, a systematic review of the existing literature on the application of SES frameworks to forest ecosystems is carried out, with a specific focus on wildfire risk management. The results demonstrate the existence of different methodological approaches that can be grouped into seven main categories, which range from qualitative analysis to quantitative spatially explicit investigations. The strengths and limitations of the approaches are discussed, with a specific reference to the geographical setting of the works. The research suggests the importance of local community involvement and local knowledge consideration in wildfire risk management. This review provides a starting point for future research on forest SES and a supporting tool for the development of a sustainable wildfire risk adaptation and mitigation strategy.

scholarly journals Holocene vegetation, fire and land use dynamics at Lake Svityaz, an agriculturally marginal site in northwestern Ukraine

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Schwörer ◽  
Erika Gobet ◽  
Jacqueline F. N. van Leeuwen ◽  
Sarah Bögli ◽  
Rachel Imboden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bronze Age ◽  
Human Impact ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mixed Forest ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Late Glacial ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Fire Dynamics

AbstractObserving natural vegetation dynamics over the entire Holocene is difficult in Central Europe, due to pervasive and increasing human disturbance since the Neolithic. One strategy to minimize this limitation is to select a study site in an area that is marginal for agricultural activity. Here, we present a new sediment record from Lake Svityaz in northwestern Ukraine. We have reconstructed regional and local vegetation and fire dynamics since the Late Glacial using pollen, spores, macrofossils and charcoal. Boreal forest composed of Pinus sylvestris and Betula with continental Larix decidua and Pinus cembra established in the region around 13,450 cal bp, replacing an open, steppic landscape. The first temperate tree to expand was Ulmus at 11,800 cal bp, followed by Quercus, Fraxinus excelsior, Tilia and Corylus ca. 1,000 years later. Fire activity was highest during the Early Holocene, when summer solar insolation reached its maximum. Carpinus betulus and Fagus sylvatica established at ca. 6,000 cal bp, coinciding with the first indicators of agricultural activity in the region and a transient climatic shift to cooler and moister conditions. Human impact on the vegetation remained initially very low, only increasing during the Bronze Age, at ca. 3,400 cal bp. Large-scale forest openings and the establishment of the present-day cultural landscape occurred only during the past 500 years. The persistence of highly diverse mixed forest under absent or low anthropogenic disturbance until the Early Middle Ages corroborates the role of human impact in the impoverishment of temperate forests elsewhere in Central Europe. The preservation or reestablishment of such diverse forests may mitigate future climate change impacts, specifically by lowering fire risk under warmer and drier conditions.

scholarly journals Distribution and altitudinal patterns of carbon and nitrogen storage in various forest ecosystems in the central Yunnan Plateau, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianqiang Li ◽  
Qibo Chen ◽  
Zhuang Li ◽  
Bangxiao Peng ◽  
Jianlong Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Sustainable Forest Management ◽  
Carbon And Nitrogen ◽  
Pinus Yunnanensis ◽  
Yunnan Plateau ◽  
Baseline Information ◽  
C And N ◽  
Quercus Semecarpifolia ◽  
Management Policies

AbstractThe carbon (C) pool in forest ecosystems plays a long-term and sustained role in mitigating the impacts of global warming, and the sequestration of C is closely linked to the nitrogen (N) cycle. Accurate estimates C and N storage (SC, SN) of forest can improve our understanding of C and N cycles and help develop sustainable forest management policies in the content of climate change. In this study, the SC and SN of various forest ecosystems dominated respectively by Castanopsis carlesii and Lithocarpus mairei (EB), Pinus yunnanensis (PY), Pinus armandii (PA), Keteleeria evelyniana (KE), and Quercus semecarpifolia (QS) in the central Yunnan Plateau of China, were estimated on the basis of a field inventory to determine the distribution and altitudinal patterns of SC and SN among various forest ecosystems. The results showed that (1) the forest SC ranged from 179.58 ± 20.57 t hm−1 in QS to 365.89 ± 35.03 t hm−1 in EB. Soil, living biomass and litter contributed an average of 64.73%, 31.72% and 2.86% to forest SC, respectively; (2) the forest SN ranged from 4.47 ± 0.94 t ha−1 in PY to 8.91 ± 1.83 t ha−1 in PA. Soil, plants and litter contributed an average of 86.88%, 10.27% and 2.85% to forest SN, respectively; (3) the forest SC and SN decreased apparently with increasing altitude. The result demonstrates that changes in forest types can strongly affect the forest SC and SN. This study provides baseline information for forestland managers regarding forest resource utilization and C management.

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