Maize Output Supply Response to Climatic and other Input Variables in Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 320-326
Author(s):  
Abera Gayesa Tirfi ◽  
Abayomi Samuel Oyekale
Keyword(s):  
Production Systems ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Optimum Number ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Growing Period ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Input Variables

Climate change is among the major challenges to sustainable agricultural production in Ethiopia. Production of cereal crops, especially maize, is very responsive to changes in rainfall and temperature, as climatic parameters influencing productivity. This paper analyzes how climatic and other variables affect the supply of maize in Ethiopia. The data were obtained from secondary sources and cover the period 1981–2018. Data were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC), and Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion (HQ) were used to select the optimum number of lags. In order to detect whether unit root is present in the series, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Philips-Perron (PP) tests were carried out. The presence of long-run equilibrium was found between maize output and temperature, rainfall, and other included variables. The results show that, in both the long and shortrun, all included climatic variables had a negative relationship with maize output supply, although temperature showed statistical insignificance (P>0.10). The result showed that maize crops are highly sensitive to extremes of rainfall – both shortage in the initial growing period and excessin the vegetative and fruiting stages. It was concluded that farmers face climate-related risk due to variations, particularly in rainfall. Therefore, farmers should adapt by using short-duration and climate-tolerant varieties of maize, along with engagement with eco-friendly production systems.

Macro-Economic Disequilibrium and Educational Development in Nigeria between 1980-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (08) ◽  
pp. 20592-21600
Author(s):  
Gbadebo Salako ◽  
Adejumo Musibau Ojo ◽  
Jaji Ayobami Francis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Educational Development ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
Level I

This study empirically investigates the effects of macroeconomic disequilibrium on educational development in Nigeria. The study employed time series data between 1980 and 2017. Autoregressive Distributed Lag method of estimation was employed. The result revealed that the variables stationarity test were mixed between the first difference I(I) and level I(0). The cointegration result shows that there exist long run relationship between the variables. The result revealed that Balance of payment, Poverty, Debt rate inflation and unemployment exhibited negative relationship with educational development. The estimation result showed that all explanatory variables account for 88% variation of educational development in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that government should fast track policies that can stabilize inflation and exchange rate in the country. Also, Policies must be formulated to reduce poverty and unemployment.

Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Econometric Evidence from Malaysia

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-112
Author(s):  
Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker ◽  
Tan Siew Ee ◽  
Sushant Vaidik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Paper Cover ◽  
Econometric Evidence ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The objective of this paper is to test the validity of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) in the Malaysian economy. Malaysia has always been considered to have attained its growth primarily through exports (Okposin, Bassey, Hamid, Halim, and Boon, 1999; Mun, 2008; Mahathir, 1990). In the past, several studies on this topic have been conducted but their analyses were limited to relationships using Bound-testing, Autoregressive –Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Toda Yamamoto analysis. Empirical data and analysis in our paper cover a 21 – year span and quarterly time-series data (1991:Q1 – 2012:Q4) are used to test this ELG hypothesis. Also, many dynamic econometric measures including the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip – Perron (PP) unit root tests, Cointegration test as well as the Vector Error Correction model (VEC) for the long run have been applied. Based on these generic models, both real exports and capital stock (productivity) are found to have stimulated positive adjustments to economic growth in the long run whereas real exchange rate is found to have influenced economic growth negatively. Overall, our conclusion is that the ELG hypothesis seems applicable to Malaysia in the long run.

Determinants of Total Factor Productivity in Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey (1980–2014)

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phillip Akanni Olomola ◽  
Tolulope Temilola Osinubi
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Total Factor Productivity ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Government Stability ◽  
Short Run

This study analyzed the macroeconomic and institutional determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in the MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey) countries during the period 1980–2014. Annual data covering the period between 1980 and 2014 were used. Data on real gross domestic product (real GDP), labor force, gross fixed capital formation, foreign direct investment (FDI), human capital, and inflation were sourced from the World Development Indicators published by the World Bank. Also, data on corruption, government stability, and law and order were obtained from the database of International Country Risk Guide. Panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) regression technique was used to estimate the model. Results showed that TFP growth rate declined on average by 1.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent in Mexico and Turkey, respectively, while Indonesia and Nigeria did not experience productivity growth on the average. Results also showed that in the long run, human capital and government stability had positive and significant effects on TFP, while FDI and corruption had negative but significant effects on TFP. In the short run, there existed a significant negative relationship between TFP and inflation. However, the effects of human capital and corruption on TFP were positive and significant. The study concluded that human capital and corruption were key drivers of TFP in the MINT countries both in the long run and short run.

scholarly journals Tax revenue and private domestic investment

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
Richard Umeokwobi ◽  
Emeka Nkoro
Keyword(s):  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Used Oil ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigated the impact of tax revenue on private domestic investment in Nigeria from 1980 to 2018 using the modified ordinary least squares- Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The paper used oil revenue, non-oil revenue, and Corporate Income Tax (CIT) as the independent variables while Private Domestic Investment (PDI) is the dependent variable. Oil revenue and non-oil revenue were used as a proxy for oil and non-oil tax. These data were obtained from secondary sources- central Bank of Nigeria, World Bank database and Federal Inland Revenue service statistical bulletin. The result showed that a long-run relationship exists between the aforementioned variables. Also, the paper revealed that oil and non-oil do not have a significant impact on PDI but CIT has a positive and significant impact on PDI. The paper recommends that proper measures/reforms should be put in place in order to reduce the impact of tax on private domestic investment in Nigeria.

scholarly journals DOES FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT HAMPER ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM BANGLADESH

2012 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 558-582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye ◽  
Faridul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Window Method ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this study is twofold. (a) Construct the first ever financial development index (FDI) for Bangladesh using the principal component method (PCM). (b) Use the FDI to explore the existence of a long run relationship between FDI and economic growth. The Augmented Dickey Fuller and the Ng-Perron unit root tests have been applied to examine the stationarity properties of the series. To explore a long run relation, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration; and to assess the stability of the parameters, the rolling window regression approach have been used. The results show that the impact of real interest rate (RIR) and FDI on economic growth is negative. Estimates from rolling window method show that FDI and RIR are negatively related to economic growth for the years 1987–1988, 1992–1999, 2002–2006, 2008 and 2009; and 1986–1998, 2006 and 2007, respectively. The results may help policymakers formulate effective financial sector policies as a tool to promote economic growth in Bangladesh.

scholarly journals Sectoral Investment and Employment Generation in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-270
Author(s):  
Furrukh Bashir ◽  
Hafeez ur Rehman ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Ismat Nasim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Employment Generation

This study is projected at investigating the influence of Sectoral Investment on Employment Generation. For this purpose, time series data is collected from Pakistan over the period from 1972 to 2017. Augmented Dickey fuller test reveals that few variables considered in the study are stationary at level and few at first difference. So, econometric results are estimated using autoregressive and distributed lag model for long run elasticities. Long run co-integrating relationship is established at 2.5 percent level using ARDL bound testing approach. ARDL long run results concludes that Agricultural Investment, Industrial Investment, Services Sector Investment and Trade openness are increasing employment while inflation and tax revenue are seemed to be negatively related with employment of Pakistan in the long run.

scholarly journals Trade Openness And Inflation: Empirical Explanation Of The Nexus In Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-45
Author(s):  
Musa Abdullahi Sakanko ◽  
David Joseph
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

Purpose of the study: The study aims is to examine the effect of trade openness on inflation rate in Nigeria. Methodology: Time series data were collected from secondary sources.  EViews10 (statistical software for data analysis) ware employed to analyze the data collected. Findings: The results revealed a cointegrating and one-way Granger causality between inflation rate, and trade openness. In addition, both the short-run and the long-run results demonstrate a significant and negative relationship between inflation rate and trade openness in Nigeria. Application: The study is paramount to the government and policymakers in dealing and taking a decision regarding consumer price index and trade openness in Nigeria. We conclude that the government should work towards full diversification and diversion of the economy from oil export, control, and management of the degree of trade liberalization and the extent to which goods enter the country, and the control of money supplied. Novelty/Originality: The study accorded to debate on the inflation rate, and trade openness in Nigeria looking, at both short-run and long-run effects, before few accessible studies focused on impact, and trade openness was not measured as the value of net export divided by gross domestic product. Finally, the paper contributed to the scanty of the literature.

scholarly journals THE CO-INTEGRATING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL INCLUSION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 170-188
Author(s):  
Oscar Chiwira ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Information And Communications Technology ◽  
Broadband Internet ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Financial Monitoring ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth in SADC. It uses panel data covering the period between 1995 to 2015 and employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds and the Toda and Yamamoto and Dolado and Lutkepohl (TYDL) models to examine the co-integrating relationship and the direction of causality respectively. The impact of financial inclusion on economic growth, when measured by the mobile penetration rate and the number of bank branches, diminishes in the long run to an extent of having a negative relationship with economic growth. This implies possible thresholds beyond which a negative impact on economic growth is realized. The long-run influence of financial inclusion on economic growth is hinged on financial technologies, measured by fixed broadband internet services, which have great potential to foster unique financial inclusion and shift the economic paradigm, leading to a digitalized economy. Only financial inclusion initiatives that result in increased bank deposit accounts promote economic growth. SADC is encouraged to liberalize its information and communications technology sector in order to fully benefit from financial inclusion initiatives. In addition, SADC should consider embracing international financial monitoring standards so that it does not fall behind the inevitable integration of the financial sectors.

scholarly journals Impact of Human Capital Underutilization on Economic Growth: the Case of India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijaya Kumar M ◽  
Balu B
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
International Labor Organization ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Adf Test

Abstract This study investigated the effect of human capital underutilization on the economic growth of India. It has used time-series data accessed from the International Labor Organization (ILO) and World Bank database. This paper estimated the relationship between the underutilization of human capital on economic growth by applying the econometric tests like Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test, Johansen Integration Test, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results revealed that in the long run human capital underutilization has a negative relationship on GDP and labor productivity and it does not in the short run. The study recommends that specific policy legislations in the Indian labor markets are required for addressing the problem of human capital underutilization and thereby accelerating the economic growth and productivity for the current and future generations.

scholarly journals Revisiting the debt-growth nexus: Evidence from India

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (231) ◽  
pp. 151-171
Author(s):  
Pratibha Saini ◽  
Krishna Muniyoor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Significant Negative Relationship ◽  
Primary Surplus

The main purpose of this study is to examine the debt-growth nexus in India over the period 1984-2019 using Bayer-Hanck and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration techniques. The findings of both techniques suggest the existence of a negative relationship between public debt and economic growth in the long run. The results also confirm the significant negative relationship between foreign exchange reserves and economic growth. Interestingly, the test results confirm the unidirectional causality running from public debt to economic growth in the case of India. From a policy perspective, reducing public debt is imperative to achieve long-term sustainable growth. Efforts should be made to circumvent the burden of burgeoning interest liabilities by generating a primary surplus, which will facilitate debt servicing and timely repayment of debt.

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