scholarly journals IMPACT OF CURRENT ACCOUNT GAPS ON INFLATION IN SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1056-1062
Author(s):  
Sardar Shakeel Ahmad ◽  
Atif Ali Jaffri ◽  
Faisal Rana ◽  
Asadullah Khan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
The Impact

Purpose of the study: The current study estimated the impact of current account gaps (CAGAP) on inflation in South Asian countries, namely, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Methodology: CAGAP is estimated through macroeconomic fundamentals by applying panel time series data methodology from 1990 to 2018. We adopted the bias-corrected least square dummy variable (LSDVC) estimation technique for the time series macro and dynamic panel to find the impact of CAGAP on inflation. Principal findings: CAGAP negatively affected consumer price inflation rate while Lag of inflation, trade openness, age dependency, and oil prices positively affected inflation rate in the selected sample countries. In LSDVC, the Blundell and Bond (BB), Arellano-Bond (AB), Anderson and Hsiao (AH) estimates are determined while system and difference GMM estimates also confirmed the results. Therefore, LSDVC-AB is selected from the three versions of LSDVC as baseline regression based on higher significance and lower standard error. Applications of the Study: CAGAP affects inflation, so it should be estimated annually in all these countries for macroeconomic stability as IMF annually estimates for developed countries in an external sector report. It is worthwhile to estimate CAN regularly and watch it for CAB evaluation and future Adjustment. Based on the results, the study recommends that tailored policies and interventions focus on the structural distortions and slow-changing factors to eradicate CAGAP. Novelty/ Originality of the Study: A few empirical studies have scrutinized the role of CAB on macroeconomic variables. No empirical study on CAGAP and its consequences are available in the selected region's existing literature to the best of our knowledge.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Sectoral Indices in Indonesia

ETIKONOMI ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bambang Sutrisno
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables on sectoral indices in the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The difference in sensitiveness among sectors is an interesting issue to investigate this relationship in an emerging market, such as Indonesia. This study employs ordinary least square (OLS) as an estimation method with monthly time-series data from January 2005 to December 2014. The results document that the interest rate, inflation rate, and exchange rate simultaneously have a significant effect on sectoral indices in Indonesia. The interest rate partially shows a significant negative influence on all sectors except basic industry and chemical, finance, infrastructure, utilities, and transportation, and miscellaneous industry sectors. The inflation rate partially has no significant effect on all sectors. The exchange rate partially has a significant negative impact on all industries.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v16i1.4323

Re-examining the twin deficit hypothesis for major South Asian economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 265-287
Author(s):  
Shruti Shastri
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose The purpose of this study is to revisit the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and provide insights into the transmission mechanism connecting budget deficits and current account deficits for five major South Asian countries, namely, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan Sri Lanka and Nepal for the period 1985-2016. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a multivariate framework including real interest rate, real exchange rate and real gross domestic product to avoid the possibility of incorrect inferences caused by omission of relevant mediating variables. The long-run relationship and causality are investigated through the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach and Toda Yamamoto approach, respectively, for each individual country. The robustness of the results is assessed with the help of Westerlund’s cointegration test and group mean fully modified ordinary least squares (GM-FMOLS), group mean dynamic ordinary least square (GM-DOLS) and common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) estimators in the panel framework. Findings Both time series and panel evidences indicate long-run relationship between budget balance (BB) and current account balance (CAB) together with the mediating variables. The results indicate bi-directional causation between the two balances for India and Bangladesh, TDH for Pakistan and Sri Lanka and the reverse causation from CAB to BB for Nepal. Regarding the transmission mechanism, the results indicate the absence of the causal chain postulated by Mundell–Fleming, which predicts that BB causes CAB via interest rate and exchange rate. A CCEMG estimate of the import demand function reveals a positive government spending elasticity of imports suggesting that BB affects CAB by direct impact through demand. Originality/value This study augments the twin deficit literature on South Asian countries by providing insights into the transmission mechanism connecting the BB and CAB. Moreover, the study provides robust evidences on the TDH by using both time series and panel data techniques.

scholarly journals Export Earnings, Capital Instability and Economic Growth in South Asia

2003 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-89
Author(s):  
Muhammad Aslam Chaudhary ◽  
Amjad Naveed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Export Diversification ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

During the last two decades the role of international trade and flow of foreign capital have received considerable attention in the literature. Various studies have examined the impact of export instability and capital instability on economic growth in less developed countries.1 Empirical evidence supports the hypothesis of a deleterious impact of export instability on economic growth. However, some studies also indicated that the relationship was unstable but positive with economic growth.2 Yet there are no systematic empirical investigations into the implied links between export diversification and long-term economic growth, particularly in the case of South Asian countries. The major concern regarding export instability is that it retards economic growth.

scholarly journals Trend analysis of rainfall using Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope, moving average and least square techniques for Ahmednagar district of Maharashtra

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-25
Author(s):  
Virendra N. Barai ◽  
Rohini M. Kalunge
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Impact

The long-term behaviour of rainfall is necessary to study over space with different time series viz., annual, monthly and weekly as it is one of the most significant climatic variables. Rainfall trend is an important tool which assesses the impact of climate change and provides direction to cope up with its adverse effects on the agriculture. Several studies have been performed to establish the pattern of rainfall over various time periods for different areas that can be used for better agricultural planning, water supply management, etc. Consequently, the present report, entitled “Trend analysis of rainfall in Ahmednagar district of Maharashtra,” was carried out. 13 tahsils of the district of Ahmednagar were selected to carry out trend analysis. The daily rainfall data of 33 years (1980- 2012) of all stations has been processed out study the rainfall variability. The Mann Kendall (MK) Test, Sen’s slope method, moving average method and least square method were used for analysis. The statistical analysis of whole reference time series data highlighted that July and August month contributes highest amount of rainfall at all tahsils. Regarding trend in annual rainfall, these four methods showed increasing trend at most of the tahsils whereas a decreasing trend only at Shrigonda tahsil. For monthly trend analysis, Kopargaon, Newasa, Shevgaon and Shrirampur tahsils showed an increasing trend during July. During August and September month, most of the tahsils i.e. Kopargaon, Nagar, Parner and Sangamner showed increasing trends, whereas in June, only Shrigonda tahsil showed decreasing trend.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Economic Growth (EG) : Evidence from Djibouti

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 701-706
Author(s):  
Nashwa Maguid Hayel
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
International Development ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Impact

Abstract: The achievement of EG and development is considered the core objective for both Developing Countires (DCs) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), so countries try to get adequate funding to achieve this goal through optimal macroeconomic policies and different strategies. Countries prefer other mechanisms with less burden and cost to achieve economic growth, such as FDI flows. International development-oriented institutions such as WB and IMF recommend and consider FDI flows are the most important factors of the modern technology transfer, management, and know-how, which is necessarily needed in the local investment projects in poor countries, so FDI represents optimal external sources of growth. The objective of this study is to explain the impact of FDI on the EG of Djibouti. To achieve this objective the study used a secondary annual time series data for the period 1985-2019 by the method of Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The study results showed that FDI in the case of Djibouti tends to be statistically insignificant effects and a limited impact on Djibouti‘s EG, Moreover,other factors such as the Human Development Index(HDI), and Gross Fixed Capital Formation(GFCF), Trade Openness(TOP) shows significant effects on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Finally, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has no significance in the EG of Djibouti. The findings provide critical information to Djibouti policy decision-makers to make an informed decision with regard to attracting investment sectors and policies in encouraging foreign investors to invest in the country. KEYWORDS: Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, Djibouti, Empirical Analysis.

scholarly journals The Modeling of Time Series Based on Least Square Fuzzy Cognitive Map

Algorithms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Guoliang Feng ◽  
Wei Lu ◽  
Jianhua Yang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Cognitive Map ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Map ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Impact

A novel design method for time series modeling and prediction with fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) is proposed in this paper. The developed model exploits the least square method to learn the weight matrix of FCM derived from the given historical data of time series. A fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm is used to construct the concepts of the FCM. Compared with the traditional FCM, the least square fuzzy cognitive map (LSFCM) is a direct solution procedure without iterative calculations. LSFCM model is a straightforward, robust and rapid learning method, owing to its reliable and efficient. In addition, the structure of the LSFCM can be further optimized with refinements the position of the concepts for the higher prediction precision, in which the evolutionary optimization algorithm is used to find the optimal concepts. Withal, we discussed in detail the number of concepts and the parameters of activation function on the impact of FCM models. The publicly available time series data sets with different statistical characteristics coming from different areas are applied to evaluate the proposed modeling approach. The obtained results clearly show the effectiveness of the approach.

scholarly journals Relationship between Corruption and FDI Inflow: A Causality Test

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-99
Author(s):  
Abdelhamid A. Mahboub ◽  
Hatem Hassan Garamon
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Developed Countries ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the relationship between the inflow of foreign direct investment and corruption. By using 2006 – 2015 time series data from 19 developed countries and 18 developing countries, it starts by testing the Granger causality between these two variables. It finds that causality direction goes from corruption to foreign direct investment. After making the time series data stationary, the study runs regression analysis for each country group separately. Significant and strong impact of corruption on foreign direct investment is found for each group, and the impact is even stronger for the developed countries. Data from each group could not support the hypothesis of ‘greasing the wheels of business’, which is used for justifying soft treatment of corruption in some countries. Policy implication is to stand strong against corruption in order to promote the inflow of foreign direct investment.

scholarly journals Forecasting the COVID-19 Pandemic with Climate Variables for Top Five Burdening and Three South Asian Countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Karimuzzaman ◽  
Sabrina Afroz ◽  
Md. Moyazzem Hossain ◽  
Azizur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Meteorological Variables ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Count Time Series ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Death Cases

Background: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is now in a horrific situation around the world. Prediction about the number of infected and death cases may help to take immediate action to prevent the epidemic as well as control the situation of a country. The ongoing debate about the climate factors may need more validation with more studies. The climate factors of the top-five affected countries and three south Asian countries have considered in this study to have a real-time forecast and robust validation about the impact of climate variables. Methods: The ARIMA model have included to model the univariate cumulative confirmed and death cases separately. The MLP, ELM and likelihood-based GLM count time series also considered as they consider the external variables as exogenous regressors. As the death count includes zero itself, zero-inflated count time series model has included instead of likelihood-based GLM. The better fitting of the ARIMA model will validate the underwhelm of meteorological factors was the initial hypothesis. The best model has identified through the application and comparison with the real data points. Results: The results depict that there is an influence of meteorological variables like temperature and humidity mostly for all the selected countries cumulative confirm cases excluding Italy and Sri-Lanka. However, the best models for deaths count of each country also identify the impact of meteorological variables for each country. Conclusion: The authors make the sixty days ahead forecast for each country which will be beneficial for the policymakers.

scholarly journals The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Economic Growth (EG): Evidence from Djibouti

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 64
Author(s):  
Nashwa Maguid Hayel ◽  
Bouchra Es. Saiydy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
International Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Modern Technology ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Least Developed Countries ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Impact

The achievement of EG and development is considered the core objective for both Developing Countires (DCs) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), so countries try to get adequate funding to achieve this goal through optimal macroeconomic policies and different strategies. Countries prefer other mechanisms with less burden and cost to achieve economic growth, such as FDI flows. International development-oriented institutions such as WB and IMF recommend and consider FDI flows as the most important factors of the modern technology transfer, management, and know-how, which is necessarily needed in the local investment projects in poor countries, Therefore FDI represents optimal external sources of growth.The objective of this study is to explain the impact of FDI on the EG of Djibouti. To achieve this objective the study used a secondary annual time series data for the period 1985-2019 by the method of Ordinary Least Square (OLS).The study results showed that FDI in the case of Djibouti tends to be statistically insignificant effects on Djibouti‘s EG; on the other hand other factors such as the Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), Trade Openness (TOP) shows significant effects on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Finally, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has no significance in the EG of Djibouti.The findings provide critical information to Djibouti policy decision-makers to make an informed decision with regard to attracting investment and policies in encouraging foreign investors to invest in the country.

The Impact of Workers’ Remittances on Private Investment and Total Consumption in Pakistan

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kausar Yasmeen ◽  
Ambreen Anjum ◽  
Kashifa Yasmeen ◽  
Sidra Twakal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Total Consumption ◽  
The Impact

To check the two Objectives of the study one exploring the impact of work remittance on economic growth and second is Impact of work remittance on private investment and total consumption, 25 years’ time series data collected from the Economic survey of Pakistan for the time 1984-2009. The methodology used for the analysis, is Regression model so for regression we have used OLS (ordinary least square model).the work remittance has positively related with the Private investment and total consumption which results increase in GDP and economic growth of Pakistan. This research favor the study of Burki (1991),Ahmad(1986), Charless (1989) Adam(1998) and Darry (2005) this research may be helpful for other low income countries, they can analysis the Workers’ remittances impact on Private investment and Total consumption  of their countries to encourage the workers remittance. Developing countries may request to developed countries to soft police for work remittance in favor of their countries. This might boost their TC and PI which boost up the economy.

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