scholarly journals MULTI-FACTOR SIMULATION MODELING IN THE SHORT-AND LONG-TERM PROGNOSIS OF MEASLES INCIDENCE

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 225-233
Author(s):  
Tatyana A. Platonova ◽  
A. A. Golubkova ◽  
V. N. Obabkov ◽  
S. Yu. Kolesnikova ◽  
S. S. Smirnova
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Database Management System ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
Measles Outbreaks

The widespread increase in morbidity and the registration of major measles outbreaks in recent years require the development of new technologies to control the infection. Technologies should be based on the prognosis of morbidity. The aim of the study was to predict the development of the situation in the near and long term in order to determine the adequate technologies of infection control in the metropolis at the stage of its elimination on the basis of a mathematical simulation of the epidemic process of measles. Materials and methods. A simulation model to forecast the incidence of measles was developed using special software AnyLogic Professional 7.0. The model included the main determinants of the epidemic process, established by the results of their own research and literature data. The results of the epidemic process modeling were uploaded to the database. Further work was carried out in the database management system Microsoft SQL Server Management Studio. Analysis and graphical processing of the results are performed using comprehensive software for business intelligence Power BI. Results. It is established that at low (50-60%) coverage of vaccinations of children in the decreed ages and the population as a whole, the probability of measles outbreaks is high both in the short and long term. The increase in vaccination coverage to 90-95% leads to an increase in the period of epidemic well-being, but the likelihood of an outbreak remains. With revaccination every 10 years, at least 60% of the population remains stable for 30 years and the spread of infection does not occur. With the coverage of revaccinating vaccinations 80% of the population-the epidemiological situation remains stable for 50 years. Conclusion. The simulation model of measles morbidity forecast for the near and long term, built with the main determinants of the epidemic process, allows us to predict the development of the epidemic situation in the territory of a large industrial city. Also, the model allows to determine the priority areas for the elimination of measles infection, namely: strict control of the timeliness and completeness of vaccination coverage of children in the decreed age (at least 95%) and maintaining a high immune layer of the population as a whole, which can be provided during the planned revaccination against measles every 10 years.

scholarly journals MULTI-FACTOR SIMULATION MODELING IN THE SHORT-AND LONG-TERM PROGNOSIS OF MEASLES INCIDENCE

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 225-233
Author(s):  
Tatyana A. Platonova ◽  
A. A. Golubkova ◽  
V. N. Obabkov ◽  
S. Yu. Kolesnikova ◽  
S. S. Smirnova
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Database Management System ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
Measles Outbreaks

The widespread increase in morbidity and the registration of major measles outbreaks in recent years require the development of new technologies to control the infection. Technologies should be based on the prognosis of morbidity. The aim of the study was to predict the development of the situation in the near and long term in order to determine the adequate technologies of infection control in the metropolis at the stage of its elimination on the basis of a mathematical simulation of the epidemic process of measles. Materials and methods. A simulation model to forecast the incidence of measles was developed using special software AnyLogic Professional 7.0. The model included the main determinants of the epidemic process, established by the results of their own research and literature data. The results of the epidemic process modeling were uploaded to the database. Further work was carried out in the database management system Microsoft SQL Server Management Studio. Analysis and graphical processing of the results are performed using comprehensive software for business intelligence Power BI. Results. It is established that at low (50-60%) coverage of vaccinations of children in the decreed ages and the population as a whole, the probability of measles outbreaks is high both in the short and long term. The increase in vaccination coverage to 90-95% leads to an increase in the period of epidemic well-being, but the likelihood of an outbreak remains. With revaccination every 10 years, at least 60% of the population remains stable for 30 years and the spread of infection does not occur. With the coverage of revaccinating vaccinations 80% of the population-the epidemiological situation remains stable for 50 years. Conclusion. The simulation model of measles morbidity forecast for the near and long term, built with the main determinants of the epidemic process, allows us to predict the development of the epidemic situation in the territory of a large industrial city. Also, the model allows to determine the priority areas for the elimination of measles infection, namely: strict control of the timeliness and completeness of vaccination coverage of children in the decreed age (at least 95%) and maintaining a high immune layer of the population as a whole, which can be provided during the planned revaccination against measles every 10 years.

Considering a Potential Role of Linalool as a Mood Stabilizer for Bipolar Disorder

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (40) ◽  
pp. 5128-5133
Author(s):  
Kate Levenberg ◽  
Wade Edris ◽  
Martha Levine ◽  
Daniel R. George
Keyword(s):  
Bipolar Disorder ◽  
Treatment Options ◽  
Mood Stabilizer ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Epidemiologic Studies ◽  
Treatment Regimens ◽  
Bipolar Spectrum Disorders ◽  
Short And Long Term

Epidemiologic studies suggest that the lifetime prevalence of bipolar spectrum disorders ranges from 2.8 to 6.5 percent of the population. To decrease morbidity and mortality associated with disease progression, pharmacologic intervention is indicated for the majority of these patients. While a number of effective treatment regimens exist, many conventional medications have significant side effect profiles that adversely impact patients’ short and long-term well-being. It is thus important to continue advancing and improving therapeutic options available to patients. This paper reviews the limitations of current treatments and examines the chemical compound Linalool, an alcohol found in many plant species, that may serve as an effective mood stabilizer. While relatively little is known about Linalool and bipolar disorder, the compound has been shown to have antiepileptic, anti-inflammatory, anxiolytic, anti-depressive, and neurotrophic effects, with mechanisms that are comparable to current bipolar disorder treatment options.

The immediate effect of Sinapis nigra and Zingiber officinale as thermogenic substances during footbaths: A Randomized Controlled Cross-over Trial

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Vagedes ◽  
Silja Kuderer ◽  
Eduard Helmert ◽  
Katrin Vagedes ◽  
Matthias Kohl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sleep Quality ◽  
Zingiber Officinale ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Primary Outcome Measure ◽  
Warm Water ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Stimulus Perception ◽  
Late Evening ◽  
Short And Long Term

Objective: Warm footbaths infused with Sinapis nigra (mustard, or MU) or Zingiber officinale (ginger, or GI) are used for various thermoregulatory conditions, but little is known about how they are perceived by individuals, both short- and long-term. We analyzed the immediate and long-term effects of MU and GI on warmth and stimulus perception in healthy adults. Methods: Seventeen individuals (mean age 22.1±2.4 years; 11 female) received three footbaths (mean temperature was 40 ± 0.2 ℃, administered between 1:30-6:30pm) in a randomized order with a cross-over design: 1. with warm water only (WA), 2. with warm water and MU and 3. with warm water and GI. Warmth and stimulus perception at the feet were assessed at the 1st, 5th, 10th, 15th, and 20th minute of the footbaths, in the late evening (EVE), and the following morning (MG). We further assessed well-being (at EVE and MG) and sleep quality (at MG). The primary outcome measure was the warmth perception at the feet at the 10th minute of the footbath. Results: At the 10th minute of the footbath, warmth perception at the feet was significantly higher with MU and GI compared to WA. The immediate thermogenic effects pointed to a quick increase in warmth and stimulus perception with MU, a slower increase with GI, and a gradual decrease with WA. Regarding the long-term effects, warmth and stimulus perception were still higher after GI compared to WA at EVE and MG. No differences were seen for general well-being and sleep quality. Conclusion: Thermogenic substances can significantly alter the dynamics of warmth and stimulus perception when added to footbaths. The different profiles in the application of GI and MU could be relevant for a more differentiated and specific use of both substances in different therapeutic indications.

Telling

Out in Time ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 67-90
Author(s):  
Perry N. Halkitis
Keyword(s):  
Gay Men ◽  
Life Events ◽  
Coming Out ◽  
Life Stories ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Critical Life Events ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Impact

Gay men experience the process of coming out to various groups of individuals, in myriad contexts, and throughout the course of their lives. For many gay men, telling one’s parents and families represents the most significant act of disclosure. Methods used for coming out to parents, circumstances by which the men came out, and reactions of their families in both the short and long term are explored. A variety of different approaches are evidenced in the life stories. The impact of these critical life events is considered in relation to the well-being and health of each of the men. Coming out to parents and family is challenging in every generation, but the circumstances related to coming out are influenced and shaped by both the sociopolitical contexts of the time and the crisis of each generation.

scholarly journals Death of a close friend: Short and long-term impacts on physical, psychological and social well-being

PLoS ONE ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. e0214838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wai-Man Liu ◽  
Liz Forbat ◽  
Katrina Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
Close Friend ◽  
Short And Long Term

scholarly journals Sharing hospital-based health technology assessments internationally

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Marchetti ◽  
S Daugbjerg
Keyword(s):  
New Technologies ◽  
Health Technology ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Sustainability Challenges

Abstract Issue/problem National healthcare systems worldwide are at a critical point due to the fiscal sustainability challenges faced. At the same time, healthcare systems are under pressure to meet the global demand for adaptation of medical innovations arriving into the market persistently. Description of the problem Hospitals often serve as the entry point for new technologies to the healthcare system. It is therefore extremely important that Health Technology Assessments (HTA) are available in timely order to accurately inform decision-makers on both short- and long-term effects of a health technology to avoid inappropriate investments. Hospital based HTA (HB-HTA) was developed to accommodate the need for evidence-based hospital-specific information in a timely manner. A substantial increase in the use of HB-HTA has been observed in the last years. However, only few reports are being published. A database for the structured collection of HB-HTA reports could help the dissemination and collaboration between hospitals. Effects/changes A survey answered by an international group of experts knowledgeable in HB-HTA from eighteen different countries has showed that there is an interest to realize the collection and dissemination of HB-HTA reports on an international scale. However, confidentiality and resources for a database are barriers for the dissemination of HB-HTA reports. The challenge will therefore be to overcome these barriers and design a database containing high quality, comparable and complete HB-HTA reports with proper data security, regular maintenance and user support. Lessons International collaboration in HB-HTA is the key to timely inform decision-makers without compromising the quality of the data or the methodology.

How do children make sense of food well-being? Food for thought for responsible retailers

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 605-622
Author(s):  
Valérie Hémar-Nicolas ◽  
Pascale Ezan
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Five Dimensions ◽  
Graphic Data ◽  
Food Retailers ◽  
Data Collection And Analysis ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide a better understanding of what well-being means to children in the food context and to formulate recommendations about the way food retailers may take actions to promote children’s food well-being (FWB). Design/methodology/approach A qualitative study based on a child-centric perspective is conducted with 25 French children aged 6–11 years. The data collection and analysis use both verbal and graphic data methods including focus groups and drawings in order to help children express their feelings and thoughts. Findings The findings put forward that according to children, the concept of FWB relies on five dimensions: sensory taste, health, commensality, empowerment and altruistic behaviours. Their discourses suggest that food practices contributes to objective, hedonic, eudaemonic and social well-being on the short and long term. Practical implications Based on children’s intrinsic needs for pleasure and empowerment, our recommendations highlight how food retailers might rethink their own-label offering, retail environment and communication to take into account young consumers’ FWB. Originality/value Drawing upon the concept of FWB and positive psychology, the authors do not only examine children’s food representations through a nutritional lens, but enlarge the scope to show how physical, emotional, psychological and social factors, involved in food context, contribute to different aspects of well-being.

The impact of intergenerational programs on children and older adults: a review

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 451-468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Rosaria Gualano ◽  
Gianluca Voglino ◽  
Fabrizio Bert ◽  
Robin Thomas ◽  
Elisa Camussi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Staff Members ◽  
Intergenerational Programs ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Final Selection ◽  
Reporting Data

ABSTRACTBackground:Elderly are at particular risk of social isolation. This condition significantly affects health; on the contrary, social involvement can be extremely advantageous. In this context, intergenerational programs improve interactions between different ages. Then, we conducted a review regarding intergenerational programs, to summarize the effects of these activities on both elderly and children.Methods:Our review followed the PRISMA statements. We considered papers reporting data about intergenerational programs involving children (preschool and elementary) and elderly.Results:The final selection obtained 27 sources. Ten studies evaluated children's outcomes outlining the positive impact of intergenerational programs upon children's perception of elderly. The effects on older participants were variegated considering well-being, depression, self-reported health, and self-esteem. Moreover, the retrieved studies outlined the importance of a careful organization and of a specific training for all staff members. The staff involved in similar programs appeared, overall, highly satisfied.Discussion:The positive impact on children of intergenerational programs is proved at both short- and long-term. Moreover, despite the different outcomes considered and the variable results, these programs resulted overall beneficial on elderly participants. Finally, similar activities resulted feasible even in case of older adults with dementia.

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