scholarly journals Socially Responsible Investment And Macroeconomic Stability In South Africa: An Application Of Vector Error Correction Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 1623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul F. Muzindutsi ◽  
Tshediso J. Sekhampu
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Responsible Investment ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

<p>The study reported in this article investigated the relationship between the Social Responsible Investment (SRI) sector and macroeconomic stability in South Africa. Johansen co-integration approach and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) were employed to test the relationship between SRI Index and a set of macroeconomic stability variables (inflation, real exchange rate, interest rates and money supply). Secondary data for the period April 2004 to December 2012 was analysed. There was a long-run association between all the variables during the period under consideration. However, the inflation rate, real effective exchange rate and money supply were not significant in predicting short-run changes in the SRI Index. A significant short-run relationship between SRI Index and the difference between long term and short-term interest rates (term structure) was observed. Macroeconomic variables are significant in explaining the behavior of the South African SRI sector in the long-run.</p>

scholarly journals An Econometric Analysis of Inflation and Unemployment in Lebanon: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
Mohammad Khanssa ◽  
Wafaa Nasser ◽  
Abbas Mourad
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Econometric Modeling ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Relationship

This paper uses econometric modeling to test the nature of the relationship between unemployment and inflation in Lebanon throughout the period 1993-2014. It takes the Phillips curve relationship as a reference for the tests. Cointegration, Granger causality and VECM were used to test the relationship both in the short and in the long run. The study resulted in finding out that the Phillips curve relationship doesn’t hold in Lebanon in the short run and came to a conclusion that there is a one-way causality relationship in the long run from unemployment to inflation and not in the opposite direction.

scholarly journals Free Trade: Does Myopic Policy Overlook Long-Term Gains?

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 65-88
Author(s):  
Maryiam Haroon
Keyword(s):  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Myopic Policy ◽  
The Relationship

This article analyzes the correlation between trade liberalization and welfare in Pakistan from 1986 to 2015. Using consumption expenditure as a measure of welfare, we estimate the relationship using a vector error correction model. The empirical results show that trade liberalization does not have an immediate correlation with welfare: it takes some time for liberalization policies to enhance welfare. The findings also suggest that trade liberalization can help reduce poverty, decrease inequality and increase enrollment levels in the long run. But in the short run, trade liberalization has led to higher income inequality.

The Economic and Environmental Impact of Large Financial Developments in an Oil-Dependent Economy

2020 ◽  
pp. 221-240
Author(s):  
Hanan Naser
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

This study examines the economic and environmental impact of large financial developments in Bahrain from year 2006 to 2016. To do so, the relationship between energy consumption, oil prices, market shares, dividend yields, and economic growth has been investigated using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The key findings are summarized as follow: (1) Long run relationship exists between the suggested variables. (2) Both energy and financial markets are significant in the long run relationship, and positively affect the economic growth of Bahrain. (3) According to the estimated ECM term, the model is stable in the short run. (4) Decline in oil price has negative significant drawback on the economic growth of Bahrain. Accordingly, it is recommended that policy makers in Bahrain focuses on implement strong strategies that aim at encouraging investments in non-oil sectors without impeding energy sector or economic growth in order to move towards sustainability.

scholarly journals Determinants of Household Debt in Botswana: 1994-2012

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faith M. Zimunya ◽  
Mpho Raboloko
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

<p><em>The paper identifies the factors that are influential in determining the growth of household debt in Botswana. Understanding the relationship between household debt and other economic indicators is an important step towards formulating focused and effective policies that control the effects of household debt on the whole economy. Using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1994 to the second quarter of 2012,</em><em> </em><em>the paper employs the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyse the influence of </em><em>G</em><em>ross </em><em>D</em><em>omestic </em><em>P</em><em>roduct (GDP) per capita, interest rates, inflation, household consumption and money supply on household debt. The findings indicate that GDP per capita, interest rates and money supply determine changes in household debt in the long-run. Further analysis shows that lagged household debt, interest rates and money supply influence changes in household debt in the short-run.</em></p><p><em><br /></em></p>

scholarly journals REVISITING KEYNES’ INVESTMENT AND SAVING MODEL IN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol XVIII (2) ◽  
pp. 45-58
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study aims to analyze the Keynes’ investment and saving model in Indonesia from 1981 to 2018. The researchers use the econometric test from the Granger causality test to find the short-run causal relationship and the Vector Error Correction Model to reveal both the short-run and long-run effects in the model. The result of Granger causality test demonstrates that there is no short-run causal relationship between these two variables. In the short-run, the increase in saving affects the consumption loans more compared to the investment loans. Besides, increased consumption compared to saving has more influence in raising investment. However, the Vector Error Correction Model proves that saving negatively affects investment in the long-run. This model empirically supports the long-run Keynes’ investment and saving model. Consequently, the Indonesian government needs to consider saving as a policy instrument to increase investment in the longrun.

scholarly journals Effect of Climate Change on Agricultural Output Growth in Ethiopia: Co-Integration and Vector Error Correction Model Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 132-143
Author(s):  
Melaku Adinew Aytehgiza ◽  
Gebrekirstos Gebresilasie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examined the effect of climate change on agricultural output growth in Ethiopia. Co- Integration and Vector Error Correction Model estimation technique and data for the period 1981-2016 was used. Changing in annual mean temperature, annual mean rainfall, carbon dioxide emission and forest depletion were used to attribute variables for climate change. The result of vector error correction model indicate that both in the long-run and short-run, carbon dioxide emissions negatively affect agricultural output growth in Ethiopia. Annual temperature and annual rainfall negatively affect agricultural output growth in the long run and short run respectively.  On the other hand, forest depletion has positive effect on agricultural output growth both long run and the short-run respectively. Policy maker should develop policies to reduce sources of carbon dioxide emissions and introduce mitigation and adaptation measures to sustain the agricultural economic growth.  

scholarly journals Inflation, Unemployment and NAIRU Estimate in Indonesia: Phillips Curve Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 51 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 24-32
Author(s):  
Nurul Hafnati ◽  
Sofyan Syahnur
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

The present study was carried out to analyze the relationship between inflation and unemployment in NAIRU estimate in Indonesia through Phillips curve approach during 25 years data from 1991-2016. The analysis model used in this research was Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as attempts to determine the long run and short run relationships between inflation and unemployment matters in Indonesia. The results of Granger causality test indicated two-way relationship between inflation and unemployment in Indonesia. The formulated results on long run estimate pointed out that unemployment delivered negative and significant effects on inflation. Nonetheless, Wald Test designated that there was a short run relationship between inflation and unemployment

Co-integration Between Sensex and Other Popular Indices: A Decadal Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-117
Author(s):  
Parul Bhatia ◽  
Hemalatha Ramasubramanian
Keyword(s):  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
World Markets ◽  
The World ◽  
Integration Techniques ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run

We examine the inter-relationship between India, the USA, Japan, China, France, Dubai and Germany using multivariate co-integration techniques. The study has investigated co-movements between these world indices from 2009 to 2018. During this period, it was found using Johansen co-integration that these indices were co-integrated in the long run. However, in the vector error correction model, long-run causality could not be found. Thereafter with Wald-χ2 diagnostics, it was found that short-run linkages existed among Indian and rest of the world markets in the study. Therefore, the seven indices may be concluded to have causal relationship in the short run and co-integrating association in the long run.

scholarly journals Assessment of cassava supply response in Nigeria using vector error correction model (VECM)

Agricultura ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 79-86
Author(s):  
Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu ◽  
Samuel Ebute
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Agricultural Commodities ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Cassava Production

Abstract The response of agricultural commodities to changes in price is an important factor in the success of any reform programme in agricultural sector of Nigeria. The producers of traditional agricultural commodities, such as cassava, face the world market directly. Consequently, the producer price of cassava has become unstable, which is a disincentive for both its production and trade. This study investigated cassava supply response to changes in price. Data collected from FAOSTAT from 1966 to 2010 were analysed using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The results of the VECM for the estimation of short run adjustment of the variables toward their long run relationship showed a linear deterministic trend in the data and that Area cultivated and own prices jointly explained 74% and 63% of the variation in the Nigeria cassava output in the short run and long-run respectively. Cassava prices (P<0.001) and land cultivated (P<0.1) had positive influence on cassava supply in the short-run. The short-run price elasticity was 0.38 indicating that price policies were effective in the short-run promotion of cassava production in Nigeria. However, in the long-run elasticity cassava was not responsive to price incentives significantly. This suggests that price policies are not effective in the long-run promotion of cassava production in the country owing to instability in governance and government policies.

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