Forecasting and verification of railway transport energy efficiency key indicators

Author(s):  
A. L. Kashtanov ◽  
◽  
A. A. Komyakov ◽  
M. M. Nikiforov ◽  
◽  
...  

The article reflects the issues of forecasting the target indicators of energy efficiency on the example of JSC «Russian Railways». The approaches selected for assessing the quantitative values of the key performance indicators of the Russian Railways holding in the development of the Energy Strategy for the period up to 2020 and for the future up to 2030 are considered. The accepted methods are conventionally classified into four groups, including: a heuristic method based on the analysis of time trends, an indirect method based on known values of indicators and using mathematical models. The method of forecasting the specific consumption of electricity and diesel fuel for train traction and the energy intensity of the production activity of JSC «Russian Railways» is considered in detail. Regression models have been developed that characterize the dependence of the specific fuel and energy consumption on such indicators as the volume of transportation work, the average mass of the train, and the share of freight work in the total work. In order to assess the accuracy of the obtained forecast values of the indicators included in the energy strategy of JSC «Russian Railways», they were verified by the results of 2017-2019. The results obtained allow us to speak about the sufficient effectiveness of the approaches considered in the article to predict the KPI of JSC «Russian Railways». The error in forecasting the main indicator of energy efficiency of JSC «Russian Railways» - the energy intensity of production activities - was 0,06 %.

Author(s):  
Bogachkova L. Yu. ◽  
Khurshudyan Sh. G.

Today, the Russian system of accounting energy consumption indicators is being actively developed, the special attention being paid to collecting verified statistical data and methodological grounding of energy efficiency monitoring in the regions. The present paper outlines the approach to estimating structural factor's effect on energy intensity of Russian regions. The approach consists in grouping Russian regions by types of their energy-economic development; studying dynamic characteristics of each group; estimating the intensity of GRP structural shifts; and analyzing statistical interdependence of structural shifts' intensity and energy intensity dynamics across the regions. The paper deals with the first stage of implementation of Energy Strategy of Russia for the Period up to 2030 (over 2005-2014 years). The dynamics of energy efficiency has been investigated using the case of electricity consumption. The results obtained in the present research show the slight impact of structural factor on energy intensity dynamics in the Russian regions, which complies with the earlier obtained results. Thus, over the period 2005-2014 the energy intensity dynamics in the Russian regions could be substantially affected by economic growth, technology modifications and other factors requiring detailed studies.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1605
Author(s):  
Shuangjie Li ◽  
Hongyu Diao ◽  
Liming Wang ◽  
Chunqi Li

Energy efficiency is crucial to the 2030 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), but its widely measured indicator, energy intensity, is still insufficient. For this reason, in 2006, total factor energy efficiency (TFEE) was proposed with capital, labor, and energy as inputs and GDP as the desirable output. The later TFEE approach further incorporated pollution as the undesirable output. However, it is problematic to regard GDP (the total value of final products) as the desirable output, because GDP does not include the intermediate consumption, which accounts for a large part of the production activities and may even be larger than the value of GDP. GDP is more suitable for measuring distribution, while VO (value of output) is more appropriate for sustainable production analysis. Therefore, we propose a VO TFEE approach that takes VO as the desirable output instead and correspondingly incorporates the other intermediate materials and services except energy into inputs. Finally, the empirical analysis of the textile industry of EU member states during 2011–2017 indicates that the VO TFEE approach is more stable and convergent in measuring energy efficiency, and is more suitable for helping policymakers achieve the SDGs of energy saving, emissions reduction, and sustainable economic development.


2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salman Haider ◽  
Javed Ahmad Bhat

Purpose Because of growing energy consumption and increasing absolute CO2 emissions, the recent calibrations about the environmental sustainability across the globe have mandated to achieve the minimal energy consumption through employing energy-efficient technology. This study aims to estimate linkage between simple measure of energy efficiency indicator that is reciprocal of energy intensity and total factor productivity (TFP) in case of Indian paper industry for 21 major states. In addition, the study incorporates the other control variables like labour productivity, capital utilization and structure of paper industry to scrutinize their likely impact on energy efficiency performance of the industry. Design/methodology/approach To derive the plausible estimates of TFP, the study applies the much celebrated Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) methodology. Using the regional level data for the period 2001-2013, the study employs instrumental variable-generalized method of moments (GMM-IV) technique to examine the nature of relationship among the variables involved in the analysis. Findings An elementary examination of energy intensity shows that not all states are equally energy intensive. States like Goa, Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu are less energy intensive, whereas Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Chhattisgarh, Assam and Punjab are most energy-intensive states on the basis of their state averages over the whole study period. The results estimated through GMM-IV show that increasing level of TFP is associated with lower level of energy per unit of output. Along this better skills and capacity utilization are also found to have positive impact on energy efficiency performance of industry. However, the potential heterogeneity within the structure of industry itself is found responsible for its higher energy intensity. Practical implications States should ensure and undertake substantial investment projects in the research and development of energy-efficient technology and that targeted allocations could be reinforced for more fruitful results. Factors aiming at improving the labour productivity should be given extra emphasis together with capital deepening and widening, needed for energy conservation and environmental sustainability. Given the dependence of structure of paper industry on the multitude of factors like regional inequality, economic growth, industrial structure and the resource endowment together with the issues of fragmented sizes, poor infrastructure and availability and affordability of raw materials etc., states should actively promote the coordination and cooperation among themselves to reap the benefits of technological advancements through technological spill overs. In addition, owing to their respective state autonomies, state governments should set their own energy saving targets by taking into account the respective potentials and opportunities for the different industries. Despite the requirement of energy-efficient innovations, however, the cons of technological advancements and the legal frameworks on the employment structure and distributional status should be taken care of before their adoption and execution. Originality/value To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that empirically examines the linkage between energy efficiency and TFP in case of Indian paper industry. The application of improved methods like Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) to derive the TFP measure and the use of GMM-IV to account for potential econometric problems like that of endogeneity will again add to the novelty of study.


2021 ◽  
pp. 92-95
Author(s):  
В.В. Жолудева ◽  
Е.В. Уткин

В статье рассматривается деятельность автотранспортного предприятия ООО ЦЗК «Логистик». Проведено моделирование производственного процесса объекта исследования с использованием множественного корреляционно-регрессионного анализа. Для проведения прогнозирования были отобраны шесть результативных и пять факторных признаков, характеризующих производственную деятельность объекта исследования. Были построены множественные регрессионные модели, связывающие результативные показатели эффективности функционирования автосервиса с влияющими на них производственными факторами. Проведённый корреляционный анализ показал, что между результативными и факторными признаками существует сильная прямая связь. Осуществлено прогнозирование шести основных результативных признаков, характеризующих производственную деятельность предприятия на основе двух сценариев с применением построенных в ходе исследования регрессионных моделей. Полученные результаты исследования позволили сделать ряд рекомендаций, способствующих улучшению финансового состояния предприятия. Применение полученных в результате исследования моделей позволит автосервисному предприятию обеспечить высокое качество и производительность работы всех производственных зон, а также улучшить качество управленческих решений. The activity of the motor transport enterprise OOO BRC "Logistics" is discussed in the article. The process simulation of the research subject was conducted using multiple correlation-regression analysis. For forecasting six resulting and five factor features were selected that characterize the production activity of the research subject. Multiple regression models were constructed linking the resulting features of the functioning of the car-care service with the production factors affecting them. The conducted correlation analysis showed that there is a strong direct connection between the resulting and factor features. Six main resulting features characterizing the production activity of the enterprise based on two scenarios were predicted using regression models constructed during the research. The results of the research made a number of recommendations contributing to the improvement of the financial condition of the enterprise. Using the models obtained as a result of the research will allow the car-care service enterprise to ensure high quality and productivity of all production zones as well as improve the quality of management decisions.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmytro Palamarchuk ◽  

The strategic context of the European Green Agreement for Ukraine analyzed in the article. Ways for developing the process of formation the tasks and measures for the second and third stages of implementation the “Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2035: security, energy efficiency, competitiveness” were elaborated. The strategic priorities of Ukraine in the field of energy efficiency, energy security and energy saving identified due to the contemporary trends and prospects for EU development in the direction of energy efficiency and energy saving. Moreover, these priorities considering the European integration orientation of Ukraine. The main elements of the European Green Agreement, the scope of EU policy on its implementation are outlined. The provisions of “Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2035: security, energy efficiency, competitiveness” correlated with the provisions of the European Green Agreement. The necessity of formation the priorities and measures of strategy on the basis of concepts of energy efficiency, energy safety and sustainable development is substantiated. It is substantiated that the existing legislative and regulatory support in the field of nature management and environmental protection is insufficient and doesn’t correspond to modern economic and social situations. Moreover, external and internal threats to the strategy implementation have been identified. The algorithm for the formation and implementation of the energy security and energy efficiency strategy has been developed. The main directions of structural restructuring of the economy and placement of productive forces are worked out within the framework of the strategy due to the requirements of sustainable development and energy security. It was grounded that. The innovative direction of development should be decisive and based on active use of knowledge and scientific achievements, stimulation of innovative activity, creation of favorable investment climate, renewal of production means, formation of high-tech activities and branches of economy. Growth based on attracting investment in the use of renewable energy sources, in environmentally friendly production and “green” technologies.


2011 ◽  
Vol 361-363 ◽  
pp. 974-977 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Nan Dong ◽  
Yu Duo Lu ◽  
Jiao Jiao Yu

This paper examined the relationship between the energy efficiency and the environmental pollution. By using the data of energy intensity and economic loss caused by environmental pollution (ELP) in China from 1989-2009, a simultaneous equations was developed. The result of two-stage OLS estimation suggested that the energy had exerted positive influences on the decreasing of the environmental pollutions. By enhancing the energy efficiency and adjusting the industrial structure and energy consumption structure, China is exploring a road for sustainable development in the energy conservation.


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