scholarly journals Comparação da Aplicação da EER Hema-Obs a 250 Gestações da Consulta de Hematologia-Obstetrícia do Centro Hospitalar São João, Portugal Versus EER Galit Sarig a 90 Gestações no Rambam Health Care Campus, Israel

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 189
Author(s):  
Ana Salselas ◽  
Inês Pestana ◽  
Francisco Bischoff ◽  
Mariana Guimarães ◽  
Joaquim Aguiar Andrade
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Very High ◽  
Receiver Operating

<strong>Introduction:</strong> Pregnant women with thromboembolic diseases, previous thrombotic episodes or thrombophilia family history were supervised in a multidisciplinary Obstetrics/ Hematology consultation in Centro Hospitalar São João EPE, Porto, Portugal. For the evaluation and medication of these women, a risk stratification scale was used.<br /><strong>Purposes:</strong> The aim of this study was to validate a Risk Stratification Scale and thromboprophylaxis protocol by means of comparing it with a similar scale, developed and published by Sarig.<br /><strong>Material and Methods:</strong> We have compared: The distribution, by risk groups, obtained through the application of the two scales on pregnant women followed at Centro Hospitalar São João, Porto, Portugal, consultation; the sensibility and specificity for each one of the scales (DeLong scale, applied to Receiver Operating Characteristic) curves; the outcomes in pregnancies followed in Hospital São João, Porto, Portugal<br /><strong>Results:</strong> According to our Hema-Obs risk stratification scale, 29% were allocated to low-risk, 47% to high-risk and 24% to very-high-risk groups. According to Galit Sarig risk stratification scale, 24% were considered low-risk, 53% moderate, 16% high-risk and 7% as very high-risk group. In our study we observed 9% of spontaneous abortions, in comparison with 18% in the Galit Sarig cohort. From the application of Receiver Operating Characteristic curve to both risk stratification scales, the results of the calculated areas were 58,8% to our Hema-Obs risk stratification scale and 38,7% to Galit Sarig risk stratification scale, with a Delong test significancie of p = 0.0006.<br /><strong>Conclusions:</strong> We concluded that Hema-Obs risk stratification scale is an effective support for clinical monitoring of therapeutic strategies.

scholarly journals Predicting the Risk of Adverse Events in Pregnant Women With Congenital Heart Disease

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (14) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ran Chu ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Guangmin Song ◽  
Shu Yao ◽  
Lin Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Congenital Heart Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Congenital Heart ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Background Women with congenital heart disease are considered at high risk for adverse events. Therefore, we aim to establish 2 prediction models for mothers and their offspring, which can predict the risk of adverse events occurred in pregnant women with congenital heart disease. Methods and Results A total of 318 pregnant women with congenital heart disease were included; 213 women were divided into the development cohort, and 105 women were divided into the validation cohort. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was used for predictor selection. After validation, multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the model. Machine learning algorithms (support vector machine, random forest, AdaBoost, decision tree, k‐nearest neighbor, naïve Bayes, and multilayer perceptron) were used to further verify the predictive ability of the model. Forty‐one (12.9%) women experienced adverse maternal events, and 93 (29.2%) neonates experienced adverse neonatal events. Seven high‐risk factors were discovered in the maternal model, including New York Heart Association class, Eisenmenger syndrome, pulmonary hypertension, left ventricular ejection fraction, sinus tachycardia, arterial blood oxygen saturation, and pregnancy duration. The machine learning–based algorithms showed that the maternal model had an accuracy of 0.76 to 0.86 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.74–0.87) in the development cohort, and 0.72 to 0.86 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.68–0.80) in the validation cohort. Three high‐risk factors were discovered in the neonatal model, including Eisenmenger syndrome, preeclampsia, and arterial blood oxygen saturation. The machine learning–based algorithms showed that the neonatal model had an accuracy of 0.75 to 0.80 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.71–0.77) in the development cohort, and 0.72 to 0.79 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.69–0.76) in the validation cohort. Conclusions Two prenatal risk assessment models for both adverse maternal and neonatal events were established, which might assist clinicians in tailoring precise management and therapy in pregnant women with congenital heart disease.

scholarly journals Predicting Risk of Postoperative Lung Injury in High-risk Surgical Patients

2014 ◽  
Vol 120 (5) ◽  
pp. 1168-1181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daryl J. Kor ◽  
Ravi K. Lingineni ◽  
Ognjen Gajic ◽  
Pauline K. Park ◽  
James M. Blum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Surgical Patients ◽  
Patients At Risk ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Abstract Background: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) remains a serious postoperative complication. Although ARDS prevention is a priority, the inability to identify patients at risk for ARDS remains a barrier to progress. The authors tested and refined the previously reported surgical lung injury prediction (SLIP) model in a multicenter cohort of at-risk surgical patients. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of a multicenter, prospective cohort investigation evaluating high-risk patients undergoing surgery. Preoperative ARDS risk factors and risk modifiers were evaluated for inclusion in a parsimonious risk-prediction model. Multiple imputation and domain analysis were used to facilitate development of a refined model, designated SLIP-2. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model performance. Results: Among 1,562 at-risk patients, ARDS developed in 117 (7.5%). Nine independent predictors of ARDS were identified: sepsis, high-risk aortic vascular surgery, high-risk cardiac surgery, emergency surgery, cirrhosis, admission location other than home, increased respiratory rate (20 to 29 and ≥30 breaths/min), Fio2 greater than 35%, and Spo2 less than 95%. The original SLIP score performed poorly in this heterogeneous cohort with baseline risk factors for ARDS (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [95% CI], 0.56 [0.50 to 0.62]). In contrast, SLIP-2 score performed well (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [95% CI], 0.84 [0.81 to 0.88]). Internal validation indicated similar discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.84. Conclusions: In this multicenter cohort of patients at risk for ARDS, the SLIP-2 score outperformed the original SLIP score. If validated in an independent sample, this tool may help identify surgical patients at high risk for ARDS.

scholarly journals Risk stratification of patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol: development and validation of the 4C Mortality Score

BMJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. m3339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen R Knight ◽  
Antonia Ho ◽  
Riinu Pius ◽  
Iain Buchan ◽  
Gail Carson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Validation Dataset ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Abstract Objective To develop and validate a pragmatic risk score to predict mortality in patients admitted to hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19). Design Prospective observational cohort study. Setting International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study (performed by the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium—ISARIC-4C) in 260 hospitals across England, Scotland, and Wales. Model training was performed on a cohort of patients recruited between 6 February and 20 May 2020, with validation conducted on a second cohort of patients recruited after model development between 21 May and 29 June 2020 . Participants Adults (age ≥18 years) admitted to hospital with covid-19 at least four weeks before final data extraction. Main outcome measure In-hospital mortality. Results 35 463 patients were included in the derivation dataset (mortality rate 32.2%) and 22 361 in the validation dataset (mortality rate 30.1%). The final 4C Mortality Score included eight variables readily available at initial hospital assessment: age, sex, number of comorbidities, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, level of consciousness, urea level, and C reactive protein (score range 0-21 points). The 4C Score showed high discrimination for mortality (derivation cohort: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.79; validation cohort: 0.77, 0.76 to 0.77) with excellent calibration (validation: calibration-in-the-large=0, slope=1.0). Patients with a score of at least 15 (n=4158, 19%) had a 62% mortality (positive predictive value 62%) compared with 1% mortality for those with a score of 3 or less (n=1650, 7%; negative predictive value 99%). Discriminatory performance was higher than 15 pre-existing risk stratification scores (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve range 0.61-0.76), with scores developed in other covid-19 cohorts often performing poorly (range 0.63-0.73). Conclusions An easy-to-use risk stratification score has been developed and validated based on commonly available parameters at hospital presentation. The 4C Mortality Score outperformed existing scores, showed utility to directly inform clinical decision making, and can be used to stratify patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 into different management groups. The score should be further validated to determine its applicability in other populations. Study registration ISRCTN66726260

A validated novel preoperative index to predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology: A cohort study

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 221-228
Author(s):  
Shahab Hajibandeh ◽  
Shahin Hajibandeh ◽  
Nicholas Hobbs ◽  
Jigar Shah ◽  
Matthew Harris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Emergency Laparotomy ◽  
Contamination Index ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Aims To investigate whether an intraperitoneal contamination index (ICI) derived from combined preoperative levels of C-reactive protein, lactate, neutrophils, lymphocytes and albumin could predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology. Methods Patients aged over 18 who underwent emergency laparotomy for acute abdominal pathology between January 2014 and October 2018 were randomly divided into primary and validation cohorts. The proposed intraperitoneal contamination index was calculated for each patient in each cohort. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine discrimination of the index and cut-off values of preoperative intraperitoneal contamination index that could predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination. Results Overall, 468 patients were included in this study; 234 in the primary cohort and 234 in the validation cohort. The analyses identified intraperitoneal contamination index of 24.77 and 24.32 as cut-off values for purulent contamination in the primary cohort (area under the curve (AUC): 0.73, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 84%, specificity: 60%) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.83, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 91%, specificity: 69%), respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis also identified intraperitoneal contamination index of 33.70 and 33.41 as cut-off values for feculent contamination in the primary cohort (AUC: 0.78, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 87%, specificity: 64%) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.79, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 86%, specificity: 73%), respectively. Conclusions As a predictive measure which is derived purely from biomarkers, intraperitoneal contamination index may be accurate enough to predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology and to facilitate decision-making together with clinical and radiological findings.

scholarly journals MicroRNAs-1299, -126-3p and -30e-3p as Potential Diagnostic Biomarkers for Prediabetes

Diagnostics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 949
Author(s):  
Cecil J. Weale ◽  
Don M. Matshazi ◽  
Saarah F. G. Davids ◽  
Shanel Raghubeer ◽  
Rajiv T. Erasmus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Tolerance Test ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Oral Glucose ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Receiver Operating

This cross-sectional study investigated the association of miR-1299, -126-3p and -30e-3p with and their diagnostic capability for dysglycaemia in 1273 (men, n = 345) South Africans, aged >20 years. Glycaemic status was assessed by oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Whole blood microRNA (miRNA) expressions were assessed using TaqMan-based reverse transcription quantitative-PCR (RT-qPCR). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves assessed the ability of each miRNA to discriminate dysglycaemia, while multivariable logistic regression analyses linked expression with dysglycaemia. In all, 207 (16.2%) and 94 (7.4%) participants had prediabetes and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), respectively. All three miRNAs were significantly highly expressed in individuals with prediabetes compared to normotolerant patients, p < 0.001. miR-30e-3p and miR-126-3p were also significantly more expressed in T2DM versus normotolerant patients, p < 0.001. In multivariable logistic regressions, the three miRNAs were consistently and continuously associated with prediabetes, while only miR-126-3p was associated with T2DM. The ROC analysis indicated all three miRNAs had a significant overall predictive ability to diagnose prediabetes, diabetes and the combination of both (dysglycaemia), with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) being significantly higher for miR-126-3p in prediabetes. For prediabetes diagnosis, miR-126-3p (AUC = 0.760) outperformed HbA1c (AUC = 0.695), p = 0.042. These results suggest that miR-1299, -126-3p and -30e-3p are associated with prediabetes, and measuring miR-126-3p could potentially contribute to diabetes risk screening strategies.

A conditional approach for the receiver operating characteristic curve construction to evaluate diagnostic test performance in a family-matched case–control design

2021 ◽  
pp. 096228022199595
Author(s):  
Yalda Zarnegarnia ◽  
Shari Messinger
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Paired Data ◽  
Characteristic Curves ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Receiver operating characteristic curves are widely used in medical research to illustrate biomarker performance in binary classification, particularly with respect to disease or health status. Study designs that include related subjects, such as siblings, usually have common environmental or genetic factors giving rise to correlated biomarker data. The design could be used to improve detection of biomarkers informative of increased risk, allowing initiation of treatment to stop or slow disease progression. Available methods for receiver operating characteristic construction do not take advantage of correlation inherent in this design to improve biomarker performance. This paper will briefly review some developed methods for receiver operating characteristic curve estimation in settings with correlated data from case–control designs and will discuss the limitations of current methods for analyzing correlated familial paired data. An alternative approach using conditional receiver operating characteristic curves will be demonstrated. The proposed approach will use information about correlation among biomarker values, producing conditional receiver operating characteristic curves that evaluate the ability of a biomarker to discriminate between affected and unaffected subjects in a familial paired design.

scholarly journals Deciphering the Interactions of Bioactive Compounds in Selected Traditional Medicinal Plants against Alzheimer’s Diseases via Pharmacophore Modeling, Auto-QSAR, and Molecular Docking Approaches

Molecules ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 1996
Author(s):  
 Oluwafemi Adeleke Ojo ◽  
Adebola Busola Ojo ◽  
Charles Okolie ◽  
Mary-Ann Chinyere Nwakama ◽  
Matthew Iyobhebhe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medicinal Plants ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Binding Affinity ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Screening Method ◽  
Pharmacophore Modeling ◽  
Structure Identification ◽  
Mao Activity ◽  
Receiver Operating

Neurodegenerative diseases, for example Alzheimer’s, are perceived as driven by hereditary, cellular, and multifaceted biochemical actions. Numerous plant products, for example flavonoids, are documented in studies for having the ability to pass the blood-brain barrier and moderate the development of such illnesses. Computer-aided drug design (CADD) has achieved importance in the drug discovery world; innovative developments in the aspects of structure identification and characterization, bio-computational science, and molecular biology have added to the preparation of new medications towards these ailments. In this study we evaluated nine flavonoid compounds identified from three medicinal plants, namely T. diversifolia, B. sapida, and I. gabonensis for their inhibitory role on acetylcholinesterase (AChE), butyrylcholinesterase (BChE) and monoamine oxidase (MAO) activity, using pharmacophore modeling, auto-QSAR prediction, and molecular studies, in comparison with standard drugs. The results indicated that the pharmacophore models produced from structures of AChE, BChE and MAO could identify the active compounds, with a recuperation rate of the actives found near 100% in the complete ranked decoy database. Moreso, the robustness of the virtual screening method was accessed by well-established methods including enrichment factor (EF), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), Boltzmann-enhanced discrimination of receiver operating characteristic (BEDROC), and area under accumulation curve (AUAC). Most notably, the compounds’ pIC50 values were predicted by a machine learning-based model generated by the AutoQSAR algorithm. The generated model was validated to affirm its predictive model. The best models achieved for AChE, BChE and MAO were models kpls_radial_17 (R2 = 0.86 and Q2 = 0.73), pls_38 (R2 = 0.77 and Q2 = 0.72), kpls_desc_44 (R2 = 0.81 and Q2 = 0.81) and these externally validated models were utilized to predict the bioactivities of the lead compounds. The binding affinity results of the ligands against the three selected targets revealed that luteolin displayed the highest affinity score of −9.60 kcal/mol, closely followed by apigenin and ellagic acid with docking scores of −9.60 and −9.53 kcal/mol, respectively. The least binding affinity was attained by gallic acid (−6.30 kcal/mol). The docking scores of our standards were −10.40 and −7.93 kcal/mol for donepezil and galanthamine, respectively. The toxicity prediction revealed that none of the flavonoids presented toxicity and they all had good absorption parameters for the analyzed targets. Hence, these compounds can be considered as likely leads for drug improvement against the same.

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