scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN INDONESIA, PERIOD 2004Q1-2018Q4

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Muhammad Latif Abdullah ◽  
FNU Sunaryati
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Government Budget Deficit

Abstract Fiscal sustainability illustrates the condition of a healthy government budget which can finance government spending without increasing debt supply. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on fiscal sustainability which in this study fiscal sustainability is proxied as a government budget deficit. The data used in this study is the 2004Q1-2018Q4 time series data using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results showed that fiscal conditions in Indonesia are sustainable and macroeconomic variables such as domestic debt andinflation has a positive effect on increasing the government budget deficit. Whereas the variable state revenues and foreign debt negatively affect the government budget deficit.Keywords : Fiscal Sustainability, Government Budget Deficit, Domestic Debt, Foreign Debt.

Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth in Bangladesh

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebney Ayaj Rana ◽  
Abu N. M. Wahid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Government Budget Deficit

The economy of Bangladesh is currently going through a period of continuous budget deficit. The present data suggest that the government budget deficit, on average, is nearly 5% of the country’s GDP. This has been true since the early 2000s. To finance this deficit, governments have been borrowing largely from domestic and foreign sources resulting in inflationary pressure on one hand, and crowding out of private investments on the other. During the same period, although the economy has grown steadily at a rate of more than 6%, this growth is less than the potential. This article presents an econometric study of the impact of government budget deficits on the economic growth of Bangladesh. We conduct a time-series analysis using ordinary least squares estimation, vector error correction model, and granger causality test. The findings suggest that the government budget deficit has statistically significant negative impact on economic growth in Bangladesh. Policy implications of our findings include reestablishing the rule of law, political stability in the country, restructuring tax structure, closing tax loopholes, and harmonizing fiscal policy with monetary policy to attract additional domestic and foreign investment.

scholarly journals THE SUSTAINABILITY OF STATE BUDGET IN DEBT REPAYMENT

2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 415-434
Author(s):  
Haryo Kuncoro
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Government

This paper is designed to analyze the sustainability of the central government budget in the case of Indonesia over the period of 1999-2009. First, we explore the theoretical background of the fiscal sustainability. Second, we develop a model to capture some factors determining the fiscal sustainability. Unlike the previous studies, we use both domestic debt and foreign debt to assess the fiscal solvency. Finally, we estimate it empirically. Based on the quarterly data analysis, we concluded that the government budget is unsustainable. This is associated with domestic debt rather than foreign debt. They imply that the central government should manage the debts carefully including re-profile, re-schedule, and re-structure them in order to spread the excess burden in the future. Also, the fiscal risks should be calculated comprehensively in order to maintain solvency.Keywords: Domestic debt, Foreign debt, Fiscal sustainability, Primary balanceJEL Clasbsification: E62, H63

scholarly journals KETANGGUHAN APBN DALAM PEMBAYARAN UTANG

2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haryo Kuncoro
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Excess Burden ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Government

This paper is designed to analyze the sustainability of the central government budget in the case of Indonesia over the period of 1999-2009. First, we explore the theoretical background of the fiscal sustainability. Second, we develop a model to capture some factors determining the fiscal sustainability. Unlike the previous studies, we use both domestic debt and foreign debt to assess the fiscal solvency. Finally, we estimate it empirically.Based on the quarterly data analysis, we concluded that the government budget is unsustainable. This is associated with domestic debt rather than foreign debt. They imply that the central government should manage the debts carefully including re-profile, re-schedule, and re-structure them in order to spread the excess burden in the future. Also, the fiscal risks should be calculated comprehensively in order to maintain solvency.Keywords: Domestic debt, Foreign debt, Fiscal sustainability, Primary balanceJEL Classification: E62, H63

scholarly journals Analyzing the Effects of Globalization on the Government Budget Deficit: The Matching Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-96
Author(s):  
Seyed Komeil Tayebi ◽  
Alireza Kamalian ◽  
Ali Sarkhosh Sara ◽  
Mostafa Mobini Dehkordi
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
The Government ◽  
Government Budget Deficit

scholarly journals Impact of National Debt on Economic Growth in Tanzania: 1980-2019

2021 ◽  
pp. 85-96
Author(s):  
Lemada Lesamana Lelya ◽  
Deus D. Ngaruko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Validity And Reliability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This paper is based on the study that examined the impact of external and domestic debt on economic growth of Tanzania over the period 1980-2019. The study’s specific objectives were; to examine trends of external and domestic debts from 1980 to 2019, to determine long run relationship between external debt stock and economic growth in Tanzania from 1980 to 2019, and to examine the long run relationship between domestic debt and economic growth in Tanzania from 1980 to 2019. The study used time series data of Tanzania collected from the Bank of Tanzania (BOT), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the World Bank indicators. The study used Vector error correction model (VECM) for estimation of the time series since all the variables’ data were stationary in first difference I (1), and there was cointegration within the variables. To ensure the validity and reliability of the data; the study carried out normality test, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and unit root tests. The empirical findings reveal that both   external and domestic debt significantly affects the economic growth of Tanzania.  The study recommends that the government should promote moderate levels of domestic borrowing which can be sustained as it promotes economic growth if used in productive and efficient avenues. The study further recommends that policymakers should efficiently allocate and develop constraints that will ensure the external borrowing is utilized on more productive and  development expenditures, so that the finance is a source of increase in net investment in the country.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Market: An Evidence from China and Pakistan

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Isbat Alam ◽  
Muhammad Mohsin ◽  
Khalid Latif ◽  
Muhammad Zia-ur -Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Silk Road is an ancient strategy of economic and trade routes development networks between emerging and developing economies (China & Pakistan). The main purpose of this research is to empirical inspect the association that exists among the China stock exchange (SSE), Pakistan Stock Exchange (KSE-100) with macroeconomic variables (Gross Domestic Product, Balance of Trade, Foreign Direct Investments, Lending interest rate, and Money Supply). The annual time series data from 1995 to 2019 used to find out the results. Macroeconomic variables have an essential role in any changes in every economy. Any unexpected variations amongst these variables influence the economy in several ways. Multiple regression techniques were analyzed and examine for the significance of data to approximate the probable impacts of variables on stock market prices. Breusch Godfrey Serial Correlation with heteroskedasticity assessment is utilized to investigate the correctness as well as residual normality of series data. The finding of this study exposed that GDP is negative significant 10% with SSE and 1% at level with KSE, FDI is insignificant with SSE. negative significant 10% at level with KSE and the result of BOT shows positive significant 5% at level with SSE while insignificant with KSE, M2 is significant 5% at level with SSE but insignificant with KSE and LI are shown statistically significant 1% at level with SSE While positive significant 10% with KSE. It is determined that it is significant and an insignificant relationship among the variables with both stock market returns. The financial analyst, policymaker appreciate these findings, investors, shareholder, stock exchange editors, security exchange supervisors as well as for the Government.                                                                                          

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF TREND AND SOURCES OF GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICIT FINANCING IN BANGLADESH

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 129-144
Author(s):  
Md Nazmus Sadekin ◽  
Md Mahbub Alam ◽  
Al Amin Al Abbasi ◽  
Subrata Saha
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Current Position ◽  
Internal Resources ◽  
Government Financing ◽  
Deficit Financing ◽  
The Government ◽  
Development Spending ◽  
Government Budget Deficit

Budget deficit is one of the most significant macroeconomic issues which have been debated both in the academic and political arena since 1970s. This study aims to explore the current position of government budget deficit, its trends, and sources of budget deficit financing in Bangladesh covering the periods of 1980 to 2018. Secondary data has been used which is collected from Bangladesh Economic Review and World Bank. Data has been analyzed through descriptive methods. The Government financing budget deficit from two sources like domestic and foreign sources. The study finds that Government finances most of its budget deficit from the domestic sources than foreign sources especially from non-banks sources due to the increase in the net sale of national savings certificates while borrowing from bank sources is on the decline. Along with the effective measures of generating more internal resources, the government should also focus on other areas to reduce the budget deficit. The government should be taken proper steps to make progressively investable resources and generate a fund for financing the non-development spending for reducing the reliance on debt that can guarantee more distribution on the development sector.

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