Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth in Bangladesh

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebney Ayaj Rana ◽  
Abu N. M. Wahid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Government Budget Deficit

The economy of Bangladesh is currently going through a period of continuous budget deficit. The present data suggest that the government budget deficit, on average, is nearly 5% of the country’s GDP. This has been true since the early 2000s. To finance this deficit, governments have been borrowing largely from domestic and foreign sources resulting in inflationary pressure on one hand, and crowding out of private investments on the other. During the same period, although the economy has grown steadily at a rate of more than 6%, this growth is less than the potential. This article presents an econometric study of the impact of government budget deficits on the economic growth of Bangladesh. We conduct a time-series analysis using ordinary least squares estimation, vector error correction model, and granger causality test. The findings suggest that the government budget deficit has statistically significant negative impact on economic growth in Bangladesh. Policy implications of our findings include reestablishing the rule of law, political stability in the country, restructuring tax structure, closing tax loopholes, and harmonizing fiscal policy with monetary policy to attract additional domestic and foreign investment.

scholarly journals Public Investments, Human Capital, and Political Stability: The Triptych of Economic Success

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Ioannis Kostakis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Public And Private Sector ◽  
The Impact

This study assesses the effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in a sample of 96 countries from 1990 to 2010. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Extreme Bound Analysis are mainly estimated in order to investigate whether public investments, human capital, and political stability affect growth controlling for initial output and human capital levels. Furthermore, in this empirical research four subsets of independent variables were used: (a) demographic factors, (b) political determinants, (c) region variables, and (d) variables regarding macroeconomic policy. Empirical results suggest that there is an important difference in the impact of public and private sector investments on the growth of per capita income. Moreover, political indicators such as corruption control, rule of law, and government effectiveness have a high impact on economic growth. Demographic factors, including fertility rate and mortality growth, as well as several macroeconomic variables, like inflation rate index and government consumption, were estimated to be statistically significant factors of economic performance. Fiscal volatility may also be a new possible channel of macroeconomic instability that leads to lower growth. Policy implications of the findings are discussed in detail.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN INDONESIA, PERIOD 2004Q1-2018Q4

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Muhammad Latif Abdullah ◽  
FNU Sunaryati
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Government Budget Deficit

Abstract Fiscal sustainability illustrates the condition of a healthy government budget which can finance government spending without increasing debt supply. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on fiscal sustainability which in this study fiscal sustainability is proxied as a government budget deficit. The data used in this study is the 2004Q1-2018Q4 time series data using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results showed that fiscal conditions in Indonesia are sustainable and macroeconomic variables such as domestic debt andinflation has a positive effect on increasing the government budget deficit. Whereas the variable state revenues and foreign debt negatively affect the government budget deficit.Keywords : Fiscal Sustainability, Government Budget Deficit, Domestic Debt, Foreign Debt.

scholarly journals Moderating Effect of Political Instability on ICT and Economic Growth Nexus in Kenya: ARDL Bound - Co-Integration Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matundura Erickson ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Moderating Effect ◽  
High Interest ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test ◽  
The Relationship

The government has attempted to target specific macroeconomic factors in order to stimulate economic growth in Kenya through monetary and fiscal policies. Despite these efforts, Kenya's GDP growth is hampered by high interest rates and high interest rate volatility. Kenya's ability to address macroeconomic instability hinges on its ability to increase economic growth. Auxiliary evidence shows that perspectives on the relationship between ICT and economic growth are segmented. The goal of this study was to determine the impact of ICT on economic growth in Kenya, as well as the moderating effect of political instability on the relationship. The research was based on Solow's theory of growth. An explanatory research design was used, with data spanning from 1990-2020 obtained from Kenya Bureau of Statistics. In the empirical analysis, the study used the bound test to test for a long-run relationship and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) to evaluate the relationship between the variables. The data was subjected to an Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test to determine stationarity.The long run ARDL results indicated that the coefficients of; ICT rate were insignificant . However with the introduction of political instability as the moderator ICT was significant and positively affected economic growth. Political instability moderated the relationship between ICT ( and economic growth. As a result, promoting effective governance should help to improve political stability. The findings of this study will help the government figure out how to address the problem of low economic growth. According to the study, the government should invest in the ICT sector to improve its accessibility and affordability. Additionally, the government should work to improve political stability and good governance by gradually establishing institutions that uphold the rule of law and provide security.

Climate Change, Economic Growth and Growth Determinants: Insights From Vietnam’s Coastal South Central Region

2020 ◽  
pp. 002190962094034
Author(s):  
Hong Hiep Hoang ◽  
Cong Minh Huynh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Central Region ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Generalized Least Squares ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
South Central ◽  
The Impact

Using the Feasible Generalized Least Squares econometric method, the paper analyzes the impact of climate change on economic growth in Vietnam’s coastal South Central region over the period of 2006–2015. The results indicate that, after controlling for the main determinants in the growth model, the climate change with various proxies has a significantly negative impact on provinces’ economic growth in the region. In particular, local institutions not only increase economic growth, but also reduce the negative impact of climate change on economic growth as well. These results suggest some policy implications aimed at boosting the process of transforming the economic growth model for the coastal region adapting to climate change. JEL codes: F21, F23, E22

scholarly journals Effect of Money Supply on Economic Growth: A Comparative Study of Nigeria and Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Cordelia Onyinyechi Omodero
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Impact

The effect of money supply in enhancing economic growth in Nigeria and Ghana is investigated in this study. The major objectives of the study are to establish the joint and individual influences of money supply mechanisms on economic growth in Nigeria and Ghana. The study employs data from 2009 to 2018 and uses Ordinary Least Squares regression technique for analysis of the data. The findings reveal that broad money supply (M2) has an insignificant negative influence on RGDP in Nigeria, but in Ghana the impact is significant and positive. Broad money supply (M3) exerts insignificant positive influence on RGDP in Nigeria, but significant negative impact on RGDP in Ghana while credit to private sectors (CPS) has insignificant positive influence on RGDP in both Nigeria and Ghana. The study among others suggests that the Monetary Authorities in the two countries should come up with monetary policy strategies that will help drive the economy better and such policies should consider M2 and CPS more as their contributions are necessary for economic expansion that lead to more output and employment.

scholarly journals Analyzing the Effects of Globalization on the Government Budget Deficit: The Matching Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-96
Author(s):  
Seyed Komeil Tayebi ◽  
Alireza Kamalian ◽  
Ali Sarkhosh Sara ◽  
Mostafa Mobini Dehkordi
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
The Government ◽  
Government Budget Deficit

scholarly journals Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in South Africa: VECM Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 231
Author(s):  
Tshembhani Mackson HLONGWANE ◽  
Itumeleng Pleasure MONGALE ◽  
Lavisa TALA
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
National Development ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Fiscal policy ensures macroeconomic stability as a precondition for growth at the macro level. This study investigates the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth of South Africa from 1960 to 2014 through a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression approach. It seeks to contribute to the existing literature as well as in designing effective fiscal policy programmes which can propel economic performance. Theresults of the long run estimates revealed that government tax revenue has a positive and significant long run influence on economic growth, whereas the government gross fixed capital formation and budget deficit have a negative impact on real GDP. For that reason, the study recommends that some expansionary fiscal policy measures should be strengthened since they play a very important role in the economy so as to meet the government target of the National Development Plan Vision for 2030.

scholarly journals Impact of the government size on economic growth in the Western Balkan countries

2022 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-63
Author(s):  
Roberta Bajrami ◽  
Adelina Gashi ◽  
Kosovare Ukshini ◽  
Donat Rexha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Government Size ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The Keynesian theory states that economic growth is positively affected by government spending, while Classical theory states that economic growth is negatively affected by government spending, as is stated by neoclassical public choice theorists (Nyasha & Odhiambo, 2019). Based on these theories, many authors have carried out research on the impact of economic freedom on economic growth by analyzing various empirical cases. Bergh and Karlsson (2010) with the findings from his paper confirmed that the countries with the highest government size have an elevated growth in the globalization index of KOF and the Fraser Institute’s economic freedom index. The main aim of this paper is to analyze the government size impact on the growth of the economy in the Western Balkan in the time period 2000–2017 according to Fraser Institute’s data, incorporating the following econometric models: fixed and random effects, pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), and Hausman-Taylor IV. With these models, this paper analyzes a government size and its components: government enterprises and investment, government consumption, transfers, and subsidies. The results illustrate a relationship between the size of the government and the growth of the economy in the Western Balkans that is positive. 1% increase in government size affects 0.29% gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita. According to the Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable, 1% growth of government consumption is affected by 0.69% the decline in GDP per capita. The growth rate of transfers and subsidies affects 0.17% of GDP growth per capita and 1% of government enterprises and investment affects 0.54% GDP growth per capita.

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