scholarly journals Bayesian Analysis of Competing Risks Models with Masked Causes of Failure and Incomplete Failure Times

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yosra Yousif ◽  
Faiz A. M. Elfaki ◽  
Meftah Hrairi
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Failure Time ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Hazard Functions ◽  
Periodic Inspection ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Interval Censored ◽  
Gamma Processes ◽  
The Impact

Bayesian analysis for masked data under competing risk frameworks is studied for the purpose of assessing the impact of covariates on the hazard functions when the failure time is exactly observed for some subjects but only known to lie in an interval of time for the remaining subjects. Such data, known as partly interval-censored data, usually result from periodic inspection. Dirichlet and Gamma processes are assumed as priors for masking probabilities and baseline hazards. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is employed for the implementation of the Bayesian approach. The effectiveness of the proposed model is tested through numerical studies, including simulated and real data sets.

scholarly journals A Bayesian Approach to Competing Risks Model with Masked Causes of Failure and Incomplete Failure Times

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Yosra Yousif ◽  
Faiz A. M. Elfaki ◽  
Meftah Hrairi ◽  
Oyelola A. Adegboye
Keyword(s):  
Competing Risks ◽  
Bayesian Approach ◽  
Survival Data ◽  
Failure Time ◽  
Production Engineering ◽  
Hazard Functions ◽  
Interval Censored ◽  
Gamma Processes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Causes Of Failure

We present a Bayesian approach for analysis of competing risks survival data with masked causes of failure. This approach is often used to assess the impact of covariates on the hazard functions when the failure time is exactly observed for some subjects but only known to lie in an interval of time for the remaining subjects. Such data, known as partly interval-censored data, usually result from periodic inspection in production engineering. In this study, Dirichlet and Gamma processes are assumed as priors for masking probabilities and baseline hazards. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is employed for the implementation of the Bayesian approach. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is illustrated with simulated and production engineering applications.

scholarly journals An adaptive social distancing SIR model for COVID-19 disease spreading and forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Said Gounane ◽  
Yassir Barkouch ◽  
Abdelghafour Atlas ◽  
Mostafa Bendahmane ◽  
Fahd Karami ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Theory ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Disease Spreading ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Recently, various mathematical models have been proposed to model COVID-19 outbreak. These models are an effective tool to study the mechanisms of coronavirus spreading and to predict the future course of COVID-19 disease. They are also used to evaluate strategies to control this pandemic. Generally, SIR compartmental models are appropriate for understanding and predicting the dynamics of infectious diseases like COVID-19. The classical SIR model is initially introduced by Kermack and McKendrick (cf. (Anderson, R. M. 1991. “Discussion: the Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic Threshold Theorem.” Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 53 (1): 3–32; Kermack, W. O., and A. G. McKendrick. 1927. “A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics.” Proceedings of the Royal Society 115 (772): 700–21)) to describe the evolution of the susceptible, infected and recovered compartment. Focused on the impact of public policies designed to contain this pandemic, we develop a new nonlinear SIR epidemic problem modeling the spreading of coronavirus under the effect of a social distancing induced by the government measures to stop coronavirus spreading. To find the parameters adopted for each country (for e.g. Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Algeria and Morocco) we fit the proposed model with respect to the actual real data. We also evaluate the government measures in each country with respect to the evolution of the pandemic. Our numerical simulations can be used to provide an effective tool for predicting the spread of the disease.

An alternative distribution to Lindley and Power Lindley distributions with characterizations, different estimation methods and data applications

2020 ◽  
Vol 70 (4) ◽  
pp. 953-978
Author(s):  
Mustafa Ç. Korkmaz ◽  
G. G. Hamedani
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Function ◽  
Mixture Distribution ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Quantile Function ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Lorenz Curves ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
New Distribution

AbstractThis paper proposes a new extended Lindley distribution, which has a more flexible density and hazard rate shapes than the Lindley and Power Lindley distributions, based on the mixture distribution structure in order to model with new distribution characteristics real data phenomena. Its some distributional properties such as the shapes, moments, quantile function, Bonferonni and Lorenz curves, mean deviations and order statistics have been obtained. Characterizations based on two truncated moments, conditional expectation as well as in terms of the hazard function are presented. Different estimation procedures have been employed to estimate the unknown parameters and their performances are compared via Monte Carlo simulations. The flexibility and importance of the proposed model are illustrated by two real data sets.

scholarly journals Mixture of Inverse Weibull and Lognormal Distributions: Properties, Estimation, and Illustration

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. S. Sultan ◽  
A. S. Al-Moisheer
Keyword(s):  
Information Matrix ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Component Mixture ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Hazard Functions ◽  
Lognormal Distributions ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Estimation Of Model Parameters

We discuss the two-component mixture of the inverse Weibull and lognormal distributions (MIWLND) as a lifetime model. First, we discuss the properties of the proposed model including the reliability and hazard functions. Next, we discuss the estimation of model parameters by using the maximum likelihood method (MLEs). We also derive expressions for the elements of the Fisher information matrix. Next, we demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed model by fitting it to a real data set. Finally, we draw some concluding remarks.

scholarly journals The Weibull Birnbaum-Saunders Distribution And Its Applications

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-81
Author(s):  
Lazhar BENKHELIFA
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Modeling Data

A new lifetime model, with four positive parameters, called the Weibull Birnbaum-Saunders distribution is proposed. The proposed model extends the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution and provides great flexibility in modeling data in practice. Some mathematical properties of the new distribution are obtained including expansions for the cumulative and density functions, moments, generating function, mean deviations, order statistics and reliability. Estimation of the model parameters is carried out by the maximum likelihood estimation method. A simulation study is presented to show the performance of the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. The flexibility of the new model is examined by applying it to two real data sets.

scholarly journals A New Right-Skewed Upside Down Bathtub Shaped Heavy-tailed Distribution and its Applications

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandeep Kumar Maurya ◽  
Sanjay K Singh ◽  
Umesh Singh
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
New Right ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Heavy Tailed Distribution ◽  
Heavy Tailed

A one parameter right skewed, upside down bathtub type, heavy-tailed distribution is derived. Various statistical properties and maximum likelihood approaches for estimation purpose are studied. Five different real data sets with four different models are considered to illustrate the suitability of the proposed model.

scholarly journals A Bayesian Mutation–Selection Framework for Detecting Site-Specific Adaptive Evolution in Protein-Coding Genes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Rodrigue ◽  
Thibault Latrille ◽  
Nicolas Lartillot
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Evolution ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Protein Coding ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Protein Coding Genes ◽  
Codon Substitution ◽  
Selection Framework ◽  
Dna Alignment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In recent years, codon substitution models based on the mutation–selection principle have been extended for the purpose of detecting signatures of adaptive evolution in protein-coding genes. However, the approaches used to date have either focused on detecting global signals of adaptive regimes—across the entire gene—or on contexts where experimentally derived, site-specific amino acid fitness profiles are available. Here, we present a Bayesian site-heterogeneous mutation–selection framework for site-specific detection of adaptive substitution regimes given a protein-coding DNA alignment. We offer implementations, briefly present simulation results, and apply the approach on a few real data sets. Our analyses suggest that the new approach shows greater sensitivity than traditional methods. However, more study is required to assess the impact of potential model violations on the method, and gain a greater empirical sense its behavior on a broader range of real data sets. We propose an outline of such a research program.

A COMPARISON OF SCORING METRICS FOR PREDICTING THE NEXT NAVIGATION STEP WITH MARKOV MODEL-BASED SYSTEMS

2010 ◽  
Vol 09 (04) ◽  
pp. 547-573 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOSÉ BORGES ◽  
MARK LEVENE
Keyword(s):  
Markov Model ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Markov Models ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Brier Score ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Extensive Evaluation ◽  
The Impact

The problem of predicting the next request during a user's navigation session has been extensively studied. In this context, higher-order Markov models have been widely used to model navigation sessions and to predict the next navigation step, while prediction accuracy has been mainly evaluated with the hit and miss score. We claim that this score, although useful, is not sufficient for evaluating next link prediction models with the aim of finding a sufficient order of the model, the size of a recommendation set, and assessing the impact of unexpected events on the prediction accuracy. Herein, we make use of a variable length Markov model to compare the usefulness of three alternatives to the hit and miss score: the Mean Absolute Error, the Ignorance Score, and the Brier score. We present an extensive evaluation of the methods on real data sets and a comprehensive comparison of the scoring methods.

scholarly journals A New Generalized Weighted Weibull Distribution

2019 ◽  
pp. 161-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salman Abbas ◽  
Gamze Ozal ◽  
Saman Hanif Shahbaz ◽  
Muhammad Qaiser Shahbaz
Keyword(s):  
Weibull Distribution ◽  
Generating Function ◽  
Probability Generating Function ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Quantile Function ◽  
Moment Generating Function ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Proposed Model

In this article, we present a new generalization of weighted Weibull distribution using Topp Leone family of distributions. We have studied some statistical properties of the proposed distribution including quantile function, moment generating function, probability generating function, raw moments, incomplete moments, probability, weighted moments, Rayeni and q th entropy. The have obtained numerical values of the various measures to see the eect of model parameters. Distribution of of order statistics for the proposed model has also been obtained. The estimation of the model parameters has been done by using maximum likelihood method. The eectiveness of proposed model is analyzed by means of a real data sets. Finally, some concluding remarks are given.

scholarly journals On the Extended Generalized Inverse Exponential Distribution with Its Applications

2020 ◽  
pp. 14-27
Author(s):  
Sule Ibrahim ◽  
Bello Olalekan Akanji ◽  
Lawal Hammed Olanrewaju
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Distribution ◽  
Hazard Rate ◽  
Generalized Inverse ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Quantile Function ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Method Of Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Inverse Exponential Distribution

We propose a new distribution called the extended generalized inverse exponential distribution with four positive parameters, which extends the generalized inverse exponential distribution. We derive some mathematical properties of the proposed model including explicit expressions for the quantile function, moments, generating function, survival, hazard rate, reversed hazard rate and odd functions. The method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate the parameters of the distribution. We illustrate its potentiality with applications to two real data sets which show that the extended generalized inverse exponential model provides a better fit than other models considered.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document