scholarly journals Analysis Relationship of Imported Rice with Rice Production, Imported and Domestic Rice Prices with VECM

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 337
Author(s):  
Abyan Rai ◽  
Sasmito Hadi Wibowo
Keyword(s):  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Rice Consumption ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

Rice is the main food for most Indonesians. With much natural resources, Indonesia can naturally fulfill its own rice consumption needs. However, Indonesia actually relies on imports to meet consumption needs. Even Indonesia continues to import while rice production is volatility surplus to maintain domestic rice prices. Based on these problems, this study aims to analyze the relationship of volume of imported rice with rice production, domestic rice prices, and prices of imported rice. The method used is descriptive analysis and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). In the long-term, rice production and domestic rice prices have significant effect on Indonesia's rice import volume. In short-term, rice production and domestic rice prices have significant effect on Indonesian rice import volume. The results of the causality test show that there is a two-way relationship between Indonesian rice import volume and Indonesian production rice. Meanwhile, a one-way relationship occurs when imported rice volumes influenced by prices of domestic rice.

scholarly journals Short And Long Term Effects Of Tourism Gdp Performance In Malaysia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1333-1341
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Stationary Test ◽  
The Relationship

This study applies observational investigation and concentrates on two primary variables which foreign direct investment and tourism. Information from 1991 to 2019 was gathered from World Bank to focus the relationship among the variables. The tests used to decipher this result are Stationary Test, Co-integration Test, Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality test. First, the Stationary Test focused on the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was measuring about the time series data’s stationary property. Next, the method used to assess the existence of the relationship between two foreign direct investment variables and tourism is the Co-integrated Test. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) includes a bug fix model that should focus on the core behavior of that model. VECM specifies a simulated model that changes simultaneously towards its long-term estimates. It shows that disequilibrium disease will join in to make it work longer. VECM similarly observed the relationship between the variables over time. Finally, the Granger Causality Test was performed to look at the causal relationship between the two variables which is the relationship between foreign direct investment and tourism

Relationship of Macroeconomics Variables in Indonesia Using Vector Error Correction Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 374-390
Author(s):  
Meilina Retno Hapsari ◽  
Suci Astutik ◽  
Loekito Adi Soehono
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to analyze the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia, namely GDP with money supply, exchange rate of rupiah to US Dollar, exports, imports and interest rates. The background problem is to analyze the best method to influence government targets or policies on economic growth by studying the relationship of macroeconomic variables. Previous studies analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia have used multiple linear regression analysis. Using VECM analysis we can find out the short-term and long-term effects on the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia. The analysis used in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model with Maximum Likelihood estimation. Based on the result, the cointegration test found that there is a long-term relationship. Based on the VECM model (3), in the short term there is a relationship between macroeconomic variables and in the long run there is a long-term causality relationship in the GDP and export models. It is expected that the Government and the Central Bank will work together cooperatively in making policies to keep control of the money supply, exchange rate of rupiah to US Dollar and interest rates to enable to stimulate the economy.

Investment Analysis of Electricity Industry Based on Cointegration Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 433-440 ◽  
pp. 2400-2405
Author(s):  
Xiao Ying He ◽  
Hui Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Relationship

By undertaking the cointegration theory with annual data over the period 1978-2008 in China, empirical studies on the relationship among power investment, electricity consumption and economic growth is carried out, and long-term equilibrium model and short-term vector error correction model are established; Granger causality test indicates that power investment is not the Granger causality of electricity consumption, while there exists bidirectional Granger causalities between electricity consumption and economic growth.

Empirical Research of the Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Beijing

2014 ◽  
Vol 962-965 ◽  
pp. 2220-2224
Author(s):  
Jie Yang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Relationship

This paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Beijing over the period 1980-2012. The Johansen co-integration test, Granger causality test and the vector error correction model (VECM) are used to calculate the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The conclusion is that there exists a co-integration relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, and this relationship is a one way relationship from economic growth to energy consumption. Further, using VECM, the long-term and short-term elasticity from economy to energy consumption are 0.43 and 0.14 separately. Statistical analysis shows that, from 1980 to 2011, every 1% growth in GDP annually would drive energy consumption increasing rate by 0.43% correspondently.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Variables and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saliha Meftah ◽  
Abdelkader Nassour
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Causality Relationship

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an essential factor in the development of a country. This study aims to examine what factors influence foreign direct investment. By using the vector error correction model, the research shows that there is a long-term causality relationship between exchange rates and inflation with FDI. However, in the short term, there are no variables that affect FDI. Besides, the Granger causality test shows causality in the direction of GDP and FDI, while other variables do not have causality. This research has implications for policymakers to pay attention to macroeconomic variables in increasing the flow of foreign direct investment.

scholarly journals Relationship between Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth in Emerging Economies: The Case of Vietnam

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (01) ◽  
pp. 25-49
Author(s):  
Hoang Tran Huy ◽  
Huan Nguyen Huu ◽  
Linh Nguyen Thi Thuy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Term Relation

This paper examines the process of financial liberalization in Vietnam over the period from 1993 to 2013. On adopting Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the results suggest that there is a long-term relation between economic growth and financial liberalization, in which the financial market liberalization and financial services liberalization provide better support during the growth of Vietnam’s economy. In addition, using various techniques including Granger causality test, impulse response analysis, and variance decomposition, the paper also clarifies the motives for financial liberalization from the process of short-term financial development and economic growth in the country.

COINTEGRATED-BASED FORECAST OF LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIPS

2021 ◽  
Vol 14(63) (1) ◽  
pp. 153-168
Author(s):  
Klara-Dalma Deszke ◽  
Liliana Duguleana
Keyword(s):  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Final Consumption ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Relationship Of

The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) are used to estimate the cointegration in the case of long-run relationship of quarterly GDP and Final Consumption in Romania during the period 1995 – 2019. The actual data of 2020 Q1 and Q2 were used to check the best model’s validity. The static and dynamic approaches of the ARDL model were used to forecast the Final Consumption for Q3 and Q4 of the year 2020. Applying the cointegration model shows the long term relationship of GDP and Final Consumption, but also the effects of other factors, seen in the differences of Final Consumption from its Long-Run evolution, and comprised in the cointegrating terms.

scholarly journals PAYROLL LOANS AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE AGGREGATE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (2004-2014)

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 148-173
Author(s):  
ALINE BEATRIZ SCHUH ◽  
DANIEL ARRUDA CORONEL ◽  
REISOLI BENDER FILHO
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Legal Aspects ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Methodological Aspects ◽  
Macroeconomic Aggregates

ABSTRACT Purpose: Identify the relationship between the granting of payroll loans and macroeconomic aggregates, from 2004 to 2014, through an analysis of the influence of this type of credit on the aggregate economic activity in Brazil. Originality/gap/relevance/implications: Payroll loans are very representative in the Brazilian credit market, and the discussion on this topic is very extensive, because it is directly linked to the economic growth of a country. However, there is a gap in the literature on this subject, since most studies stress behavioral finances, or the legal aspects of contracts, and also because this type of credit is recent in the Brazilian economy. Key methodological aspects: This is quantitative approach performed through the estimation of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), which enabled the computation of impulse-response functions, the variance decomposition and the Granger causality test. Summary of key results: The results indicate that the granting of payroll loans causes an increase on macroeconomic aggregates in the short term, but over longer periods of time this increase tends to be eliminated. Key considerations/conclusions: The granting of payroll loans influences the behavior of the economic activity. However, despite the fact that its concession provides leverage in the short term, this growth is not sustainable in the long-term. In this scenario, there is exponential growth in household consumption over the past decade; however, the industry productivity and the investments did not follow this evolution. It is inferred from this that the current growth model generates expansion, but its effects are limited.

scholarly journals Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Konsumsi Beras di Provinsi Bali

2018 ◽  
pp. 1589
Author(s):  
I Putu Danendra Putra ◽  
I Gede Wardana
Keyword(s):  
Significant Influence ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Rice Consumption ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
Number Of Visits ◽  
Associative Analysis ◽  
Variable Analysis

Rice is a basic and primary requirement of Balinese people as the main source of carbohydrates. Consumption rice in Bali Province continues to increase every year but not offset by increased rice production. This study aims to determine how the influence of rice prices, the number of residents, the number of visits of domestic tourists and the number of foreign tourists visiting the consumption of rice and bagimana Gross Regional Domestic Product (PDRB) moderate the influence of rice prices and the population of rice consumption. Sources of data used in this study are secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics Bali Province, Bali Provincial Agriculture Office, Bali Provincial Tourism Office and other related offices. The analysis used in this research is descriptive analysis and associative analysis using multiple linear regeresis analysis, moderating variable analysis. The result of analysis shows the number of population, the number of domestic tourist visit and the number of foreign tourist visit have positive and significant influence to the consumption of rice, while the price of rice have negative but insignificant effect to the consumption of Bali Provincial rice in 1983-2016. GRDP significantly strengthens the influence of rice prices and population on rice consumption of Bali Province in 1983-2016.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Household Debt and Consumption Spending in South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 243
Author(s):  
Patience Nkala ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Consumption has been and remains the main contributor to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in South Africa. Household debt on the other side has remained high over the years. These two economic indicators are a reflection of the well-being of an economy. This study thus examined the relationship between household debt and consumption spending, for the period between 1994 and 2013. The Johansen cointegration technique and the Vector error correction model (VECM) were utilised to test the long run and short run relationships between the variables. The Granger causality test was also employed to test the direction of causality between the variables. Results from this study have revealed that a relationship exists between household debt and consumption spending in South Africa and they have also showed that this relationship flows from household debt to consumption spending. The implications of these results are that consumption spending may be increased through other measures rather than through increasing debt. The study therefore recommends that policy makers avail more investment opportunities for households and to also create employment in a bid to increase the income of households which can then be used to increase household consumption rather than the use of debt.

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