scholarly journals Short And Long Term Effects Of Tourism Gdp Performance In Malaysia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1333-1341
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Stationary Test ◽  
The Relationship

This study applies observational investigation and concentrates on two primary variables which foreign direct investment and tourism. Information from 1991 to 2019 was gathered from World Bank to focus the relationship among the variables. The tests used to decipher this result are Stationary Test, Co-integration Test, Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality test. First, the Stationary Test focused on the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test was measuring about the time series data’s stationary property. Next, the method used to assess the existence of the relationship between two foreign direct investment variables and tourism is the Co-integrated Test. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) includes a bug fix model that should focus on the core behavior of that model. VECM specifies a simulated model that changes simultaneously towards its long-term estimates. It shows that disequilibrium disease will join in to make it work longer. VECM similarly observed the relationship between the variables over time. Finally, the Granger Causality Test was performed to look at the causal relationship between the two variables which is the relationship between foreign direct investment and tourism

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Variables and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saliha Meftah ◽  
Abdelkader Nassour
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Causality Relationship

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an essential factor in the development of a country. This study aims to examine what factors influence foreign direct investment. By using the vector error correction model, the research shows that there is a long-term causality relationship between exchange rates and inflation with FDI. However, in the short term, there are no variables that affect FDI. Besides, the Granger causality test shows causality in the direction of GDP and FDI, while other variables do not have causality. This research has implications for policymakers to pay attention to macroeconomic variables in increasing the flow of foreign direct investment.

PERKEMBANGAN NERACA PERDAGANGAN DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHINYA

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-72
Author(s):  
Ari Mulianta Ginting
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run

Penelitian ini menganalisis perkembangan neraca perdagangan Indonesia dan faktor yang mempengaruhinya selama periode Kuartal I tahun 2006 sampai dengan Kuartal II tahun 2013 menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Neraca perdagangan Indonesia menunjukkan perkembangan yang positif dalam kurun waktu 2006-2011, dan pertumbuhan negatif selama periode 2012-2013. Penelitian ini juga menemukan bahwa baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek, konsumsi domestik dan nilai tukar riil berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia, sedangkan variabel Investasi Asing Langsung dan PDB Negara lain berpengaruh positif. Nilai error correction model yang negatif dan signifikan menunjukkan adanya koreksi dari pergerakan variabel pada keseimbangan jangka panjang. Hal ini mengindikasikan pentingnya pemerintah untuk mengeluarkan kebijakan yang tepat untuk mengatasi defisit neraca perdagangan Indonesia, antara lain menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar, mengendalikan konsumsi masyarat terhadap barang impor, dan menarik Foreign Direct Investment. This paper examines the development of Indonesia’s trade balance and its determinant factors from the first quarter of 2006 to the second quarter of 2013 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The development of trade balance from the year 2006-2011 has shown a positive trend. However between the year 2012 and 2013, the trade balance has been negative.The analysis shows that both in the short run and the long run,the domestic consumption and Real Exchage Rate have negative and significant influence on Indonesia’s trade balance. Whilst Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign GDP have positive effect. The coefficient of Error Correction Model is negative and significant implying that there is correction movement from those variabels in the long run. This study suggests that the Government should make the right policy to overcome the deficit of trade balance by maintaining including exchange rate stability,and household consumption of imported goods as well as by attracting Foreign Direct Investment.

scholarly journals Free Trade: Does Myopic Policy Overlook Long-Term Gains?

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 65-88
Author(s):  
Maryiam Haroon
Keyword(s):  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Myopic Policy ◽  
The Relationship

This article analyzes the correlation between trade liberalization and welfare in Pakistan from 1986 to 2015. Using consumption expenditure as a measure of welfare, we estimate the relationship using a vector error correction model. The empirical results show that trade liberalization does not have an immediate correlation with welfare: it takes some time for liberalization policies to enhance welfare. The findings also suggest that trade liberalization can help reduce poverty, decrease inequality and increase enrollment levels in the long run. But in the short run, trade liberalization has led to higher income inequality.

scholarly journals PENGARUH EKSPOR HASIL MINYAK DAN IMPOR MINYAK BUMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Fadila Arza ◽  
Murtala Murtala
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of oil product exports and petroleum imports on the economic growth of Indonesia. This study uses secondary data. The method used to analyze the relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables is a dynamic model with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The results in the long-term and short-term show that Oil Products Exports have a positive effect on the Economic Growth of Indonesia. In the long-term and short-term, petroleum imports negatively influence the economic growth of Indonesia.Keywords:Oil Product Exports, Crude Oil Imports, Economic Growth

Analysing the impact of tourism foreign direct investment on economic growth

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 1042-1055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheereen Fauzel ◽  
Boopen Seetanah ◽  
R.V. Sannassee
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
The Impact

The present study attempts to address the important question of whether foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into the tourism sector has served to enhance economic growth in Mauritius for the period 1984–2014. Using a dynamic vector error correction model, and catering for dynamism, the results show that tourism FDI has indeed contributed to fostering economic growth; albeit the magnitude of the coefficient being relatively smaller than FDI in the non-tourism sector. A plausible explanation for such a finding may reside in the fact that the bulk of FDI flows in the non-tourism sectors while domestic investment predominates in the tourism sector in Mauritius. The findings also demonstrate a positive relationship between tourism development and economic growth, thus supporting the tourism-led growth hypothesis.

A Study on Causal Relationship Between Sugar Beet Supply and Sugar Price - Sustainability Issues and Opportunities

GIS Business ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 445-462
Author(s):  
Dr Karim MH ◽  
Seied Beniamin Hosseini ◽  
Dr Ayesha Farooq ◽  
Dr Ayesha Farooq ◽  
Somayeh Kouchak Zadeh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sugar Beet ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Sugar Price ◽  
Vector Error

Sugar Beet is one of the essential sources of energy. However, most of the division in Iran supply sugar beet through domestic production. The present study is going to investigate the causal relationship between sugar beet supply and sugar price in Iran between the year 1995 to 2016. By  Applying the Johansen-Juselius cointegration method along with Granger causality test. Besides,  this research going to analyse the causal relationship between sugar beet supply and sugar price by considering the sustainability issues and opportunities. However, The result of the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test shows that there is a positive long-term co-integration relationship between variables. Although  According to the GC test, there is a causal relationship between sugar beet supply and sugar price. Also result of the vector error correction model represents that sugar price has a significant impact on sugar beet supply which indicates that every increase and decrease in sugar price reflect on sugar beet production. Therefore, the necessity of an appropriate policy-making and proper planning for sugar beet production has been bolded.

Empirical Research of the Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Beijing

2014 ◽  
Vol 962-965 ◽  
pp. 2220-2224
Author(s):  
Jie Yang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Relationship

This paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Beijing over the period 1980-2012. The Johansen co-integration test, Granger causality test and the vector error correction model (VECM) are used to calculate the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The conclusion is that there exists a co-integration relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, and this relationship is a one way relationship from economic growth to energy consumption. Further, using VECM, the long-term and short-term elasticity from economy to energy consumption are 0.43 and 0.14 separately. Statistical analysis shows that, from 1980 to 2011, every 1% growth in GDP annually would drive energy consumption increasing rate by 0.43% correspondently.

HUBUNGAN ANTARA CONSUMPTION ABROAD (MODA 2) DENGAN COMMERCIAL PRESENCE (MODA 3) DI SEKTOR JASA PARIWISATA INDONESIA

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-62
Author(s):  
Muhammad Fawaiq
Keyword(s):  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Mode 2 ◽  
Variable Mode ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Mode 3

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan antara Moda 2 dan Moda 3 dalam perdagangan internasional di sektor jasa pariwisata. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger. Data yang digunakan adalah data kedatangan wisatawan mancanegara dan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) jasa hotel dan restoran tahun 1997-2014 di Bali, Jakarta, Kepulauan Riau dan Sumatera Utara. Daerah-daerah ini berkontribusi sebesar 81,26% dari total kedatangan wisatawan mancanegara di Indonesia dan 68% terhadap total FDI di jasa hotel dan restoran Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat hubungan kausalitas jangka pendek antara kedua variabel tetapi terdapat hubungan jangka panjang satu arah yaitu variabel Moda 3 dipengaruhi oleh variabel Moda 2. Hasil pengujian pada gabungan antara jangka panjang dan jangka pendek menujukkan bahwa variabel Moda 3 secara kuat dipengaruhi oleh variabel Moda 2. Dengan demikian diketahui bahwa semakin banyak jumlah wisatawan mancanegara yang datang ke Indonesia maka akan mendorong meningkatnya FDI di jasa hotel dan restoran, tetapi meningkatnya FDI di jasa tersebut tidak signifikan berpengaruh terhadap masuknya jumlah wisatawan mancanegara. This paper examines the relationship between Mode 2 and Mode 3 of international trade in tourism sector. The method used is the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger. The data used in this study were the number of foreign tourist arrivals and the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in some hotels and restaurants during 1997-2014 in Bali, Jakarta, Riau Islands and Nort Sumatera.These regions contributed for 81.26% out of the total tourist arrivals in Indonesia and 68% of the total FDI in the services of hotels and restaurants Indonesia. The results using VECM Granger demonstrated that there was no short-term causality relationship between these two variables but they had a long-term causality relationship that the Moda 3 was affected by the variable mode 2. Test results on a combination of long-term and short-term showed that the variable mode 3 was strongly influenced by variable mode 2. Thus, it is known that the more foreign tourists coming to Indonesia, the more FDI we gained from the service of hotels and restaurants, but this increase does not significantly affect the number of foreign tourists.

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