Applying Risk Analysis to the Disaster Impact of Extreme Typhoon Events Under Climate Change

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 513-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsin-Chi Li ◽  
◽  
Shiao-Ping Wei ◽  
Chao-Tzuen Cheng ◽  
Jun-Jih Liou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Disaster Reduction ◽  
Loss Assessment ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

Extreme typhoon precipitation events frequently have a socioeconomic impact and result in the loss of human life. Therefore, conducting thorough evaluations of the disaster scale before the occurrence of extreme typhoon precipitation events is beneficial to disaster reduction. This study selects the Tsengwen River basin, Taiwan, the area most severely impacted by typhoon Morakot, as a demonstration area, and adopts dynamical downscaling data to simulate the top ten extreme typhoon precipitation events of the future (from 2069 to 2099) under climate change. The SOBEK model (commercial software) and the Taiwan Typhoon Loss Assessment System (TLAS), established by the National Science and Technology Center of Disaster Reduction (NCDR), are used to evaluate the potential losses resulting from the ten extreme events. The results indicate that the average total loss caused by the ten simulated typhoon events amounts to US$439 million, with agriculture, followed by aquaculture and forestry, suffering the greatest damage. A correlation analysis is also employed to identify key factors that influence loss, including the maximum 6-hour cumulative precipitation, the maximum peak runoff, and the use of the land. Based on these analysis results, this study provides applicable coping strategies that will effectively reduce the impact of future extreme precipitation events in the Tsengwen River basin.

scholarly journals Uncertainty Impacts of Climate Change and Downscaling Methods on Future Runoff Projections in the Biliu River Basin

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhu ◽  
Zhang ◽  
Wu ◽  
Qi ◽  
Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Liaoning Province ◽  
Lower Envelope ◽  
The Impact

This paper assesses the uncertainties in the projected future runoff resulting from climate change and downscaling methods in the Biliu River basin (Liaoning province, Northeast China). One widely used hydrological model SWAT, 11 Global Climate Models (GCMs), two statistical downscaling methods, four dynamical downscaling datasets, and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are applied to construct 22 scenarios to project runoff. Hydrology variables in historical and future periods are compared to investigate their variations, and the uncertainties associated with climate change and downscaling methods are also analyzed. The results show that future temperatures will increase under all scenarios and will increase more under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, while future precipitation will increase under 16 scenarios. Future runoff tends to decrease under 13 out of the 22 scenarios. We also found that the mean runoff changes ranging from −38.38% to 33.98%. Future monthly runoff increases in May, June, September, and October and decreases in all the other months. Different downscaling methods have little impact on the lower envelope of runoff, and they mainly impact the upper envelope of the runoff. The impact of climate change can be regarded as the main source of the runoff uncertainty during the flood period (from May to September), while the impact of downscaling methods can be regarded as the main source during the non-flood season (from October to April). This study separated the uncertainty impact of different factors, and the results could provide very important information for water resource management.

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Precipitation Extremities of Eastern Nepal in the Last Two Decades (1997–2016)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunil Subba ◽  
Yaoming Ma ◽  
Weiqiang Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>In recent days there have been discussions regarding the impact of climate change and its vagaries of the weather, particularly concerning extreme events. Nepal, being a mountainous country, is more susceptible to precipitation extreme events and related hazards, which hinder the socioeconomic<br>development of the nation. In this regard, this study aimed to address this phenomenon for one of the most naturally and socioeconomically important regions of Nepal, namely, Eastern Nepal. The data were collected for the period of 1997 to 2016. The interdecadal comparison for two periods<br>(1997–2006 and 2007–2016) was maintained for the calculation of extreme precipitation indices as per recommended by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Linear trends were calculated by using Mann‐Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator. The average annual precipitation was found to be decreasing at an alarming rate of −20 mm/year in the last two decades' tenure. In case of extreme precipitation events, consecutive dry days, one of the frequency indices, showed a solo increase in its trend (mostly significant). Meanwhile, all the intensity indices of extreme precipitation showed decreasing trends (mostly insignificant). Thus, it can be concluded that Eastern Nepal has witnessed some significant drier days in the last two decades, as the events of heavy, very heavy, extremely heavy precipitation events, and annual wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) were found to be decreasing. The same phenomena were also seen in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 V7 satellite precipitation product for whole Nepal.</p>

scholarly journals What Are the Implications of Climate Change for Retrofitted Historic Buildings? A Literature Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingjun Hao ◽  
Daniel Herrera-Avellanosa ◽  
Claudio Del Pero ◽  
Alexandra Troi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Thermal Mass ◽  
Historic Buildings ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Existing Building ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

Historic buildings account for more than one-quarter of Europe’s existing building stock and are going to be crucial in the achievement of future energy targets. Although a drastic reduction in carbon emissions would slow climate change, an alteration in the climate is already certain. Therefore, the impact of climate change on retrofitted historic buildings should be considered in terms of occupants’ comfort, heritage conservation, and energy performance. Inappropriate interventions might weaken the potential of traditional climate adaptive solutions, such as thermal mass and night cooling, leading to higher risks of overheating in a warming climate. Similarly, retrofit solutions will change the moisture dynamics of historic envelopes, which might lead to moisture damages when combined with more extreme precipitation events. This paper reviews recent literature that provides evidence of climate change’s impact on retrofitted buildings, reveals potential future risks, and thereby sheds light on new factors influencing the decision-making process in the retrofit of historic buildings.

scholarly journals A review of the main drivers and variability of Central America’s Climate and seasonal forecast systems

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (1-1) ◽  
pp. 153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tito Maldonado ◽  
Eric J. Alfaro ◽  
Hugo G. Hidalgo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Central America ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
The Impact

Central America is a region susceptible to natural disasters and climate change. We reviewed the literature on the main atmospheric and oceanographic forces and climate modulators affecting Central America, for different spatial and time scales. We also reviewed the reported correlation between climate variability, natural hazards and climate change aspects (in the past and future). In addition, we examined the current state of seasonal prediction systems being applied to the region. At inter-annual scales, El Niño/Southern Oscillation is the main climate modulator; however, other indices such as the Tropical North Atlantic, Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, have shown a correlation with precipitation anomalies in the region. Current seasonal forecast systems in the region have shown a constant development, including incorporation of different approaches ranging from statistical to dynamical downscaling, improving prediction of variables such as precipitation. Many studies have revealed the need of including –in addition to the climatic information– socio-economic variables to assess the impact of natural disasters and climate change in the region. These studies highlight the importance of socio-economic and human life losses associated with the impacts caused by natural hazards for organizations and governments. Rev. Biol. Trop. 66(Suppl. 1): S153-S175. Epub 2018 April 01. 

Projecting the effect of climate-change-induced increases in extreme rainfall on residential property damages

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Pastor ◽  
Ilan Noy ◽  
Isabelle Sin ◽  
Abha Sood ◽  
David Fleming-Munoz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Public ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p class="western" lang="en-NZ"><span lang="en-US">New Zealand’s public insurer, the Earthquake Commission (EQC), provides residential insurance for some weather-related damage. Climate change and the expected increase in intensity and frequency of weather-related events are likely to translate into higher damages and thus an additional financial liability for the EQC. We project future insured damages from extreme precipitation events associated with future projected climatic change. We first estimate the empirical relationship between extreme precipitation events and the EQC’s weather-related insurance claims based on a complete dataset of all claims from 2000 to 2017. We then use this estimated relationship, together with climate projections based on future GHG concentration scenarios from six different dynamically downscaled Regional Climate Models, to predict the impact of future extreme precipitation events on EQC liabilities for different time horizons up to the year 2100. Our results show predicted adverse impacts vary over time and space. The percent change between projected and past damages—the climate change signal—ranges between an increase of 7% and 26% by the end of the century. We also give detailed caveats as to why these quantities might be mis-estimated. The projected increase in the public insurer’s liabilities could also be used to inform private insurers, regulators, and policymakers who are assessing the future performance of both the public and private insurers that cover weather-related risks in the face of climatic change.</span></p>

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