Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Precipitation Extremities of Eastern Nepal in the Last Two Decades (1997–2016)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunil Subba ◽  
Yaoming Ma ◽  
Weiqiang Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>In recent days there have been discussions regarding the impact of climate change and its vagaries of the weather, particularly concerning extreme events. Nepal, being a mountainous country, is more susceptible to precipitation extreme events and related hazards, which hinder the socioeconomic<br>development of the nation. In this regard, this study aimed to address this phenomenon for one of the most naturally and socioeconomically important regions of Nepal, namely, Eastern Nepal. The data were collected for the period of 1997 to 2016. The interdecadal comparison for two periods<br>(1997–2006 and 2007–2016) was maintained for the calculation of extreme precipitation indices as per recommended by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Linear trends were calculated by using Mann‐Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator. The average annual precipitation was found to be decreasing at an alarming rate of −20 mm/year in the last two decades' tenure. In case of extreme precipitation events, consecutive dry days, one of the frequency indices, showed a solo increase in its trend (mostly significant). Meanwhile, all the intensity indices of extreme precipitation showed decreasing trends (mostly insignificant). Thus, it can be concluded that Eastern Nepal has witnessed some significant drier days in the last two decades, as the events of heavy, very heavy, extremely heavy precipitation events, and annual wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) were found to be decreasing. The same phenomena were also seen in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 V7 satellite precipitation product for whole Nepal.</p>

A Comparison of CMIP3 Simulations of Precipitation over North America with Observations: Daily Statistics and Circulation Features Accompanying Extreme Events

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 3209-3230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony M. DeAngelis ◽  
Anthony J. Broccoli ◽  
Steven G. Decker
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Climate model simulations of daily precipitation statistics from the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were evaluated against precipitation observations from North America over the period 1979–99. The evaluation revealed that the models underestimate the intensity of heavy and extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast, southeastern United States, and southern Mexico, and these biases are robust among the models. The models also overestimate the intensity of light precipitation events over much of North America, resulting in fairly realistic mean precipitation in many places. In contrast, heavy precipitation is simulated realistically over northern and eastern Canada, as is the seasonal cycle of heavy precipitation over a majority of North America. An evaluation of the simulated atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics associated with extreme precipitation events was also conducted using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The models were found to capture the large-scale physical mechanisms that generate extreme precipitation realistically, although they tend to overestimate the strength of the associated atmospheric circulation features. This suggests that climate model deficiencies such as insufficient spatial resolution, inadequate representation of convective precipitation, and overly smoothed topography may be more important for biases in simulated heavy precipitation than errors in the large-scale circulation during extreme events.

scholarly journals The impact of Ensemble-Based Assimilation of Thermodynamic Lidar Profiles on Forecasts of the Pre-Convective Environment and Convection Initiation of Heavy Precipitation Events over the Mediterranean region: The German contribution to WaLiNeAs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rohith Muraleedharan Thundathil ◽  
Thomas Schwitalla ◽  
Andreas Behrendt ◽  
Diego Lange ◽  
Cyrille Flamant ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Measurement Campaign ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting (PrQPF) is a challenging field of meteorology, which is fundamental for the prediction and quantification of extreme precipitation events. With advanced remote-sensing instruments such as lidar systems, it is possible to acquire the high-resolution temporal and spatial dynamical and thermodynamic data for input to the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models through data assimilation (DA) techniques. During the fall, the Mediterranean region is often stricken by heavy precipitation events (HPEs), resulting in a sudden rise of water levels in the rivers and flash floods. Severe damage to life and property arises during these extreme precipitation events every year. A unique and innovative French initiative project, called the Water Vapor Lidar Network assimilation (WaLiNeAs), will start a measurement campaign in early September 2022, deploying a network of autonomous water vapor lidars from research groups of France, Germany, and Italy across the Western Mediterranean. The project aims to implement an integrated prediction tool to enhance the forecast of HPEs in southern France, primarily demonstrating the benefit of assimilating vertically resolved water vapor data in the new version of the French operational AROME NWP system. The Atmospheric Raman Temperature and Humidity Sounder (ARTHUS, (Lange et al. 2019)), from the University of Hohenheim (UHOH), will operate in synergy with other lidar systems. The data collected from the measurement campaign, water vapor and temperature, will be assimilated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model system at the Institute of Physics and Meteorology (IPM), UHOH. A thermodynamic lidar operator developed by some of us (Thundathil et al. 2020) will be used to assimilate lidar temperature and water vapor mixing ratio independently. The operator avoids undesirable cross sensitivities to temperature enabling maximum moisture information of the observation to be propagated into the model. An advanced hybrid three-dimensional Variational - Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (3DVAR-ETKF) DA system with 50 ensemble members, on a convection-permitting resolution of 1.5 km, will be set up for the research study. For the prediction and quantification of the HPE event, the assimilation will be performed in a rapid update cycle mode every 15 minutes before its occurrence. A prototype of the DA system with ten ensemble members and a one-hour rapid update cycle was already developed at IPM (Thundathil et al., 2021). In this case, the impact from a single ground-based lidar spreads spatially for a radius of 100 km. Apart from the improvement in the analyses, the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) forecast impact persisted 7 hours into forecast time compared with respect to independent ceilometer observations. The results show a promising initiative for future operational lidar network assimilation. We will present the outline and DA setup of the study, highlighting results from our previous lidar DA research.</p>

scholarly journals Future changes in the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over China in a warmer world: Insight from a large ensemble

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. e0252133
Author(s):  
Yang Li ◽  
Jingyi Bai ◽  
Zhiwei You ◽  
Jun Hou ◽  
Wei Li
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

Sufficient samples of extreme precipitation events are needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the probability of their occurrence. Here, we use a large ensemble simulation with 50 members from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario to give future projection of the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events under different warming levels relative to the current climate over China. A bias-correction method based on quantile mapping is first used to remove systematic biases in the ensemble. The return value and return period are obtained by fitting enough annual maximum precipitation samples with the generalized extreme value to represent the intensity and frequency of extreme events, respectively. The results show that the average intensity of extreme precipitation in China will increase by nearly 8% per 1°C of global warming, which closely follows the Clausius–Clapeyron relation. Rarer extreme events will experience greater changes in frequency, especially under higher warming. The nationally averaged extreme precipitation events, presently expected to occur every 50 years (100 years) under the current climate conditions, are expected to occur approximately every 41 years (82 years), 32 years (62 years), 22 years (42 years) and 15 years (29 years) under warming levels of 1.5, 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0°C, respectively. Northwestern China (NW), southwestern China (SW) and the Yangtze River valley (YZ) exhibit the greatest increase in probability ratio (PR) under future climate condition. The risk of extreme precipitation events, currently expected to occur once every 50 years, will be nearly 11 (21) times more likely to occur under a climate warming by 3.0°C (4.0°C). Limiting warming to 1.5°C will help avoid approximately 40%-50%, 70%-80% and over 90% of the increase in the risk of extreme events in almost all subregions if the global mean surface temperature (GMST) continues warming to 2.0°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C, respectively. Our study provides a useful information for the understanding the impact of climate change on the future risk of extreme events over China.

Building Resilience After Climate-Related Extreme Events: Lessons Learned from Extreme Precipitation in Schwäbisch Gmünd

2020 ◽  
Vol 07 (01n02) ◽  
pp. 2050010
Author(s):  
Britta V. Weißer ◽  
Ali Jamshed ◽  
Jörn Birkmann ◽  
Joanna M. McMillan
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Heavy Precipitation Event ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Pluvial Flooding ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Precipitation Events

In 2016, heavy precipitation events in Southern Germany demonstrated that pluvial flooding can cause serious damages, not just in large cities but also in small and medium-sized cities. Hazard-oriented disaster management approaches to better address such spatially ubiquitous extreme events are already being developed. However, integrated strategies to reduce risk and to promote climate-resilient development pathways through both private precautionary measures and integrated urban planning are still underdeveloped. Considering the uncertainties associated with heavy precipitation, analyzing and understanding damages, strengthening people’s preparedness and improving preventative measures are central components of resilience building. This paper complements existing empirical studies on households’ preparedness and provides further insight into how resilience to flooding from heavy precipitation in cities can be strengthened. We do this by analyzing the damages caused by one particular heavy precipitation event, the preparedness of people in the affected city and their perceptions of responsibilities for improving precautionary measures. This paper presents the results from a household survey with a total of 1,128 completed questionnaires which was carried out in Schwäbisch Gmünd, Germany. The findings of the household survey illustrate the variety of damages caused by the heavy precipitation event and reveal important differences between households who experienced damages from pluvial flooding and those who did not. Lastly, findings of people’s perception about who is responsible for improved precautions offer interesting insights into tools that might help to enhance resilience building. Finally, the paper formulates recommendations for an improved assessment of resilience-building processes, individual capacities and planning tools to build climate resilience to extreme precipitation events.

Projecting the effect of climate-change-induced increases in extreme rainfall on residential property damages

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Pastor ◽  
Ilan Noy ◽  
Isabelle Sin ◽  
Abha Sood ◽  
David Fleming-Munoz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Public ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p class="western" lang="en-NZ"><span lang="en-US">New Zealand’s public insurer, the Earthquake Commission (EQC), provides residential insurance for some weather-related damage. Climate change and the expected increase in intensity and frequency of weather-related events are likely to translate into higher damages and thus an additional financial liability for the EQC. We project future insured damages from extreme precipitation events associated with future projected climatic change. We first estimate the empirical relationship between extreme precipitation events and the EQC’s weather-related insurance claims based on a complete dataset of all claims from 2000 to 2017. We then use this estimated relationship, together with climate projections based on future GHG concentration scenarios from six different dynamically downscaled Regional Climate Models, to predict the impact of future extreme precipitation events on EQC liabilities for different time horizons up to the year 2100. Our results show predicted adverse impacts vary over time and space. The percent change between projected and past damages—the climate change signal—ranges between an increase of 7% and 26% by the end of the century. We also give detailed caveats as to why these quantities might be mis-estimated. The projected increase in the public insurer’s liabilities could also be used to inform private insurers, regulators, and policymakers who are assessing the future performance of both the public and private insurers that cover weather-related risks in the face of climatic change.</span></p>

scholarly journals Changes in Intense Precipitation over the Central United States

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Ya. Groisman ◽  
Richard W. Knight ◽  
Thomas R. Karl
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Intense Precipitation ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Extreme Rain ◽  
Rain Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In examining intense precipitation over the central United States, the authors consider only days with precipitation when the daily total is above 12.7 mm and focus only on these days and multiday events constructed from such consecutive precipitation days. Analyses show that over the central United States, a statistically significant redistribution in the spectra of intense precipitation days/events during the past decades has occurred. Moderately heavy precipitation events (within a 12.7–25.4 mm day−1 range) became less frequent compared to days and events with precipitation totals above 25.4 mm. During the past 31 yr (compared to the 1948–78 period), significant increases occurred in the frequency of “very heavy” (the daily rain events above 76.2 mm) and extreme precipitation events (defined as daily and multiday rain events with totals above 154.9 mm or 6 in.), with up to 40% increases in the frequency of days and multiday extreme rain events. Tropical cyclones associated with extreme precipitation do not significantly contribute to the changes reported in this study. With time, the internal precipitation structure (e.g., mean and maximum hourly precipitation rates within each preselected range of daily or multiday event totals) did not noticeably change. Several possible causes of observed changes in intense precipitation over the central United States are discussed and/or tested.

scholarly journals ENSO and Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Events over the Contiguous United States

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Yehui Chang ◽  
Max J. Suarez ◽  
Philip J. Pegion
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
The West ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In this study the authors examine the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation events over the continental United States using 49 winters (1949/50–1997/98) of daily precipitation observations and NCEP–NCAR reanalyses. The results are compared with those from an ensemble of nine atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations forced with observed SST for the same time period. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the daily precipitation fields together with compositing techniques are used to identify and characterize the weather systems that dominate the winter precipitation variability. The time series of the principal components (PCs) associated with the leading EOFs are analyzed using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions to quantify the impact of ENSO on the intensity of extreme precipitation events. The six leading EOFs of the observations are associated with major winter storm systems and account for more than 50% of the daily precipitation variability along the West Coast and over much of the eastern part of the country. Two of the leading EOFs (designated GC for Gulf Coast and EC for East Coast) together represent cyclones that develop in the Gulf of Mexico and occasionally move and/or redevelop along the East Coast producing large amounts of precipitation over much of the southern and eastern United States. Three of the leading EOFs represent storms that hit different sections of the West Coast (designated SW for Southwest coast, WC for the central West Coast, and NW for northwest coast), while another represents storms that affect the Midwest (designated by MW). The winter maxima of several of the leading PCs are significantly impacted by ENSO such that extreme GC, EC, and SW storms that occur on average only once every 20 years (20-yr storms) would occur on average in half that time under sustained El Niño conditions. In contrast, under La Niña conditions, 20-yr GC and EC storms would occur on average about once in 30 years, while there is little impact of La Niña on the intensity of the SW storms. The leading EOFs from the model simulations and their connections to ENSO are for the most part quite realistic. The model, in particular, does very well in simulating the impact of ENSO on the intensity of EC and GC storms. The main model discrepancies are the lack of SW storms and an overall underestimate of the daily precipitation variance.

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

The effect of climate change on urban drainage: an evaluation based on regional climate model simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 54 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 9-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Grum ◽  
A.T. Jørgensen ◽  
R.M. Johansen ◽  
J.J. Linde
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Events

That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent and consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 × 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly extreme statistics of the rain gauge surface into the future. Thirdly, the future extremes of the square surface area are downscaled to give point rainfall extremes of the future. The results and conclusions rely heavily on the regional model's suitability in describing extremes at time-scales relevant to urban drainage. However, in spite of these uncertainties, and others raised in the discussion, the tendency is clear: extreme precipitation events effecting urban drainage and causing flooding will become more frequent as a result of climate change.

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