scholarly journals Manajemen Inflasi Indonesia Menuju Optimalitas Growth Ekonomi Nasional

2002 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-68
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Kholilul Rohman Havid Rozaq ◽  
Satria Utama Soekardjono ◽  
Nurkholis Mahfudz
Keyword(s):  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Current View ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
The World ◽  
High Inflation

In the economic literature, the relationship between the growth and inflation has been discussed in different ways with respect to the development stages of the world economy. According to the current view, there is a negative relationship between growth and inflation. This seems to be compatible with the fact that the investments and the economic growth have been negatively affected by the high and chronic inflation rates. Thus, improvement of the long-run growth potential depends on the elimination of the uncertainties that stems from high inflation rates. Developments in commodity, service and financial markets necessitate the countries to perceive the world as a global market. The countries (or provinces in our study now) that appraise this  process of decentralizations could improve their living standards economically and socially if and only if they manage inflation well hence the economic cost and social cost both are minimize for sustainable growth in each province.

Determinants of Total Factor Productivity in Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey (1980–2014)

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 192-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phillip Akanni Olomola ◽  
Tolulope Temilola Osinubi
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Total Factor Productivity ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Government Stability ◽  
Short Run

This study analyzed the macroeconomic and institutional determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in the MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey) countries during the period 1980–2014. Annual data covering the period between 1980 and 2014 were used. Data on real gross domestic product (real GDP), labor force, gross fixed capital formation, foreign direct investment (FDI), human capital, and inflation were sourced from the World Development Indicators published by the World Bank. Also, data on corruption, government stability, and law and order were obtained from the database of International Country Risk Guide. Panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) regression technique was used to estimate the model. Results showed that TFP growth rate declined on average by 1.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent in Mexico and Turkey, respectively, while Indonesia and Nigeria did not experience productivity growth on the average. Results also showed that in the long run, human capital and government stability had positive and significant effects on TFP, while FDI and corruption had negative but significant effects on TFP. In the short run, there existed a significant negative relationship between TFP and inflation. However, the effects of human capital and corruption on TFP were positive and significant. The study concluded that human capital and corruption were key drivers of TFP in the MINT countries both in the long run and short run.

scholarly journals Integrated Social-sector Macroeconometric Model for Pakistan

1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (4II) ◽  
pp. 567-579 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hafiz A. Pasha ◽  
M.Aynul Hasan ◽  
Aisha Ghaus ◽  
M.Ajaz Rasheed
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Health Knowledge ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Production Model ◽  
Social Sector ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Positive Externalities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World

While the traditional neoclassical production model postulates that it is the physical inputs such as private capital, labour, land, and technology that are the key determinants of output and economic development, in recent years, however, the social sector variables are also considered to be critical, particularly for the long-run sustainable growth of the economy. If fact, what has been argued in the form of “new growth theories” is that social variables (e.g., education, health, knowledge, etc.) generate “positive externalities” and, thus, may facilitate and foster the process of economic growth and development. Recently, the World Bank, based on a broad cross-country study, found some very interesting results in the above context. According to the World Development Report (1991): about fifty percent of the factor productivity contribution to output growth comes not from traditional physical inputs (capital, labour and land) but is a residual factor. This unexplained factor, in the past, has been labelled (or as the Report called it “baptised”) as “technological change”, however, the World Bank (1991, p. 42) claims that:

scholarly journals Economic Growth, Inflation, and Monetary Policy in Pakistan: Preliminary Empirical Estimates

2005 ◽  
Vol 44 (4II) ◽  
pp. 961-974 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed M. Khalid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Macroeconomic Imbalances ◽  
High Inflation

The recent increase in financial market volatility and the increased surge within developing world to become part of the global market have posed several challenges for policy-makers in the emerging markets to decide on a policy regime— monetary or exchange rate—that suits their needs and could also provide stability to the financial system. In view of the macroeconomic characteristics of these emerging economies, the choice of an appropriate policy becomes important to achieve certain targets such as sizeable domestic and foreign investment, reduced reliance on external borrowings, fiscal discipline, etc. These would require both price and exchange rate stability and country’s ability to deal with external shocks to maintain and achieve sustainable economic growth. Pakistan is no different and until recently had a history of macroeconomic imbalances with extremely high foreign (as well as domestic) debt, high budget and current account deficits, extremely low international reserves, high inflation, high nominal interest rates and low economic growth. The average economic growth over 40 years is around 4 percent. The main focus of any policy has been to achieve a sustainable growth pattern. However, due to a number of macroeconomic imbalances such as high budget deficits, extremely high indebtedness, low savings and investment rates, lack of fiscal discipline, undeveloped financial markets, unstable exchange rates along with high population growth and huge defence expenditure made this task almost impossible. Some of these macroeconomic imbalances contributed to episodes of high inflation and unemployment that the country experienced during most of the period since independence.

scholarly journals Revisiting the debt-growth nexus: Evidence from India

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (231) ◽  
pp. 151-171
Author(s):  
Pratibha Saini ◽  
Krishna Muniyoor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Significant Negative Relationship ◽  
Primary Surplus

The main purpose of this study is to examine the debt-growth nexus in India over the period 1984-2019 using Bayer-Hanck and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration techniques. The findings of both techniques suggest the existence of a negative relationship between public debt and economic growth in the long run. The results also confirm the significant negative relationship between foreign exchange reserves and economic growth. Interestingly, the test results confirm the unidirectional causality running from public debt to economic growth in the case of India. From a policy perspective, reducing public debt is imperative to achieve long-term sustainable growth. Efforts should be made to circumvent the burden of burgeoning interest liabilities by generating a primary surplus, which will facilitate debt servicing and timely repayment of debt.

scholarly journals Digital strategies of companies: growth potential and reasons for failure

E-Management ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 48-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Butkovskaya ◽  
E. Sumarokova
Keyword(s):  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Scientific Field ◽  
Business Leaders ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Digital Environment ◽  
Annual Series ◽  
The World ◽  
General Number ◽  
Operational Models

Countries, industries and business leaders face an increasingly complex world characterized by the proliferation of new digital technologies, affecting productivity and causing organizational disruptions.Today the reward for success and the penalty for failure have become even greater than some time ago. Most digital strategies do not reflect how the digital environment is changing the fundamentals of the economy, the dynamics of industries, and the meaning of competition. Digital strategy must be seriously different from what we usually see now – otherwise failure is inevitable. Why is this possible at a time when almost every company in the world is thinking about its digital future? Why are so many digital strategies unsuccessful? The answer should be related to how much large and influential economic force the digital environment has become, and how it is becoming incompatible with traditional economic, strategic and operational models. The problems, especially standing out from their General number have been revealed in the article, recommendations to the heads of large organizations on the implementation of corporate digital strategies have been given. The ideas in this work are based on research, that has considered the importance of a more inclusive infrastructure to expand access to digital technologies and the emergence of new families of technologies in this scientific field. These ideas have been illustrated with evidence from the recent annual series of global market studies, which examine corporate practices in the light of digitalization.

scholarly journals Inflation, Output, And Stock Prices: Evidence From Brazil

2011 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bahram Adrangi ◽  
Arjun Chatrath ◽  
Antonio Z. Sanvicente
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The Real ◽  
Price Levels ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 40.5pt 0pt 0.5in;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Batang;">Research in economics and finance documents a puzzling negative relationship between stock returns and inflation rates in markets of industrialized economies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>The present study investigates this relationship for Brazil. We show that the negative relationship between the real stock returns and unexpected inflation persists after purging inflation of the effects of the real economic activity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>The Johansen and Juselius cointegration tests verify a long-run equilibrium between stock prices, general price levels, and the real economic activity. Furthermore, stock prices and general price levels also show a strong long-run equilibrium with the real economic activity and each other.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp;&nbsp; </span>The findings lend support to Fama&rsquo;s proxy hypothesis in the long-run.</span></span></span></p>

scholarly journals China’s Rebalancing

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (239) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nitya Aasaavari ◽  
Fabio Di Vittorio ◽  
Ana Lariau ◽  
Yuebo Li ◽  
Rui Mano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Trade Barriers ◽  
Positive Outcomes ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Large Growth ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Positive Effect

Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), two regions with large growth potential, have become increasingly connected over the last 20 years. China has emerged not only as a top trading partner, but also as an important competitor of LAC exports. China’s retreat from certain markets, due to the ongoing rebalancing process, could open new opportunities for LAC exporters but also entail some challenges. Our results show that China’s rebalancing will have an overall positive effect on LAC’s GDP and exports in the long run, but this effect is small and uneven across countries, leading to winners and losers. We also provide evidence that other countries, such as India, are currently trying to fill the gap left by China and could undermine LAC’s competitive advantage in some export markets. In this context, reduction of trade barriers and further integration within the region and/or with the rest of the world would lead to unequivocally positive outcomes for all LAC countries. The COVID-19 shock might exacerbate the effects identified in our analysis.

No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
K. Akhila
Keyword(s):  
New Technologies ◽  
Emerging Technology ◽  
Business Development ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Way

Today's world is undergoing a series of significant changes owing to advent of new technologies resulting in a new set of challenges and risks. Innovations and discoveries have spurred disruptions changing the line of events in the modern world. The ones who survive this global transformation are the ones who adapt to the change and respond at the earliest. Strategic decisions pertaining to embracing the right emerging technology is imperative for business development. The need of the hour is to reset our intuition about the way we work and the way we perceive the world to work for sustainable growth in the long run. Times have drastically changed making it even more evident to evolve our decisionmaking process. Predictions for the future must be based on new lines of management intuition and careful estimations rather than on experience alone.

The Role of Technological Change in the Long-run Global Economy Forecasting

2013 ◽  
pp. 97-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Apokin
Keyword(s):  
Technological Change ◽  
Data Quality ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Qualitative Approaches ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
National Economies

The author compares several quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecasting to find appropriate methods to incorporate technological change in long-range forecasts of the world economy. A?number of long-run forecasts (with horizons over 10 years) for the world economy and national economies is reviewed to outline advantages and drawbacks for different ways to account for technological change. Various approaches based on their sensitivity to data quality and robustness to model misspecifications are compared and recommendations are offered on the choice of appropriate technique in long-run forecasts of the world economy in the presence of technological change.

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