scholarly journals Satellite mapping of the thermal response of ecosystems of Northern Eurasia to climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 155-164
Author(s):  
V.I. Gornyy ◽  
◽  
A.V. Kiselev ◽  
S.G. Kritsuk ◽  
I.Sh. Latypov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Response ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Satellite Mapping

scholarly journals Continental vs. Global Niche-Based Modelling of Freshwater Species’ Distributions: How Big Are the Differences in the Estimated Climate Change Effects?

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 816
Author(s):  
Danijela Markovic ◽  
Jörg Freyhof ◽  
Oskar Kärcher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Properties ◽  
Safety Margin ◽  
Thermal Response ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Freshwater Species ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Preferred Temperature ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Management Actions

Thermal response curves that depict the probability of occurrence along a thermal gradient are used to derive various species’ thermal properties and abilities to cope with warming. However, different thermal responses can be expected for different portions of a species range. We focus on differences in thermal response curves (TRCs) and thermal niche requirements for four freshwater fishes (Coregonus sardinella, Pungitius pungitius, Rutilus rutilus, Salvelinus alpinus) native to Europe at (1) the global and (2) European continental scale. European ranges captured only a portion of the global thermal range with major differences in the minimum (Tmin), maximum (Tmax) and average temperature (Tav) of the respective distributions. Further investigations of the model-derived preferred temperature (Tpref), warming tolerance (WT = Tmax − Tpref), safety margin (SM = Tpref − Tav) and the future climatic impact showed substantially differing results. All considered thermal properties either were under- or overestimated at the European level. Our results highlight that, although continental analyses have an impressive spatial extent, they might deliver misleading estimates of species thermal niches and future climate change impacts, if they do not cover the full species ranges. Studies and management actions should therefore favor whole global range distribution data for analyzing species responses to environmental gradients.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic climate change has changed frequency of past flood during 2010-2013

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukiko Hirabayashi ◽  
Haireti Alifu ◽  
Dai Yamazaki ◽  
Yukiko Imada ◽  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe ongoing increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing have changed the global water cycle and are expected to lead to more intense precipitation extremes and associated floods. However, given the limitations of observations and model simulations, evidence of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on past extreme river discharge is scarce. Here, a large ensemble numerical simulation revealed that 64% (14 of 22 events) of floods analyzed during 2010-2013 were affected by anthropogenic climate change. Four flood events in Asia, Europe, and South America were enhanced within the 90% likelihood range. Of eight snow-induced floods analyzed, three were enhanced and four events were suppressed, indicating that the effects of climate change are more likely to be seen in the snow-induced floods. A global-scale analysis of flood frequency revealed that anthropogenic climate change enhanced the occurrence of floods during 2010-2013 in wide area of northern Eurasia, part of northwestern India, and central Africa, while suppressing the occurrence of floods in part of northeastern Eurasia, southern Africa, central to eastern North America and South America. Since the changes in the occurrence of flooding are the results of several hydrological processes, such as snow melt and changes in seasonal and extreme precipitation, and because a climate change signal is often not detectable from limited observation records, large ensemble discharge simulation provides insights into anthropogenic effects on past fluvial floods.

Population variation in the thermal response to climate change reveals differing sensitivity in a benthic shark

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 108-120
Author(s):  
Connor R. Gervais ◽  
Charlie Huveneers ◽  
Jodie L. Rummer ◽  
Culum Brown
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Response ◽  
Population Variation

scholarly journals Thermal Sensation in Courtyards: Potentialities as a Passive Strategy in Tropical Climates

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 6135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Julio Apolonio Callejas ◽  
Luciane Cleonice Durante ◽  
Eduardo Diz-Mellado ◽  
Carmen Galán-Marín
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Thermal Sensation ◽  
Thermal Response ◽  
Tropical Climate ◽  
Design Strategies ◽  
Physiological Equivalent Temperature ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Passive Strategy

Climate change will bring changes to our living conditions, particularly in urban areas. Climate-responsive design strategies through courtyards can help to moderate temperatures and reduce the thermal stress of its occupants. Thermal response inside courtyard is affected not only by its morphological composition but also by subjective factors. Thus, standardized thermal scales may not reflect the stress of the occupants. This study investigated the impact on thermal attenuation provided by a courtyard located in a tropical climate under extreme cold and hot synoptic conditions by means of local thermal sensation scales. Microclimatic variables were monitored, simultaneously with the application of a thermal comfort questionnaire, by using weather stations installed outside and inside the courtyard. The Modified Physiological Equivalent Temperature Index (mPET) was utilized to predict the heat stress. Calibration was conducted using linear regression to attribute particular thermal sensation votes to correspondent mPET values. It was found that thermal sensation can be affected by factors such as psychological, behavioral, and physiological. The courtyard’s form provides a passive cooling effect, stabilizing interior thermal sensation, with attenuation peaks of 6.4 °C on a cold day and 5.0 °C on a hot day. Courtyards are an alternative passive strategy to improve thermal ambience in tropical climate, counterbalancing climate change.

Recent ground thermal dynamics and variations in northern Eurasia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liangzhi Chen ◽  
Juha Aalto ◽  
Miska Luoto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Thermal Dynamics ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Cold Environments ◽  
Continuous Permafrost ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Ground Warming

<p><span>Ground thermal regime in cold environments is key to understanding the effects of climate change on surface–atmosphere feedbacks. The northern Eurasia, covering over half of terrestrial areas north of </span><span>40°N, is sensitive to the ongoing climate change due to underlain permafrost and seasonal frost. Here, we quantify the recent ground thermal dynamics and variations over northern Eurasia by compiling measurements of soil temperature data over 457 sites at multiple depths from 1975-2016. Our analysis shows that the mean annual ground temperature has significant warming trends by 0.30–0.31 °C/decade at depths of 0.8, 1.6, and 3.2 m. We found that the changes in annual maximum ground temperatures were more pronounced than mean annual ground temperatures with a weakened warming magnitude (0.40 to 0.31°C/decade) from upper to lower ground. Our results also suggest the substantial differences in warming magnitudes through parameters and depths over different frost-related areas. The ground over continuous permafrost area warmed faster than non-continuous permafrost and seasonal frost areas in shallow ground (0.8 and 1.6 m depth) but slower in deeper ground (3.2 m). Our study highlights the varied ground temperature evolutions at multiple depths and different frost-related ground</span><span>, suggesting the importance of separated discussions on different frost-affected ground in application and future research. Noteworthy, </span><span>the results indicate that the significant ground warming can promote greenhouse gas emissions from soil to atmosphere, further accelerating climate change.</span></p>

Probabilistic projection of the regional climate as the basis for the development of adaptation programs in the economy of Russia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuliya Rudakova ◽  
Igor Shkolnik ◽  
Elena Khlebnikova ◽  
Vladimir Kattsov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Thermal Regime ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Russian Science

<p>The prospects of using the probabilistic regional climate projection technique for adaptation to climate change in the territory of Russia are considered. The analysis focuses on future changes in the climatic indicators of the thermal regime and humidification which play a significant role in the evaluation of the reliability of the functioning of construction and technical systems as well as transport and energy infrastructure.</p><p>The analysis is based on the output of the 50-member ensemble of high-resolution climate projections using an RCM developed at the Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO). The RCM grid has a horizontal resolution of 25 km across Russia. Modeling projections have been recently used to assess the impacts of regional climate change on hydropower facilities (Shkolnik et al., 2018).</p><p>Numerical experiments are carried out from different (random) initial conditions for the baseline 1990-1999 and future periods 2050-2059 and 2090-2099 using the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario (Kattsov et al., 2020). The boundary conditions on the ocean surface are derived from the output of the five CMIP5 models. For each ocean state trajectory, ten experiments from the different initial conditions are conducted. Lateral boundary conditions for the RCM ensemble are provided by MGO AGCM under an identical experimental setup.</p><p>To study the future impacts of the thermal regime, several universal indicators are used, particularly, the annual and seasonal extremes of temperature for a given averaging period as well as the characteristics of intra-annual periods with the temperature above/below the thresholds. The thresholds ​​are selected to meet the needs of construction, land transport, and the energy sector. Besides, the indicators of the precipitation regime are considered (seasonal maxima of daily amounts and characteristics of dry/wet periods).</p><p>Along with obtaining median ensemble estimates of changes in mean values, an analysis of future changes in the indicators in the probabilistic aspect is conducted. Using the temperature of the hottest 30-day period and the maximum duration of the dry period, the regional features of their projected changes are demonstrated accounting for the contribution of internal climatic variability. In agreement with observations, significant differences in the changes between the European part of Russia and certain regions of its Asian part are revealed.</p><p>The study is supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant 16-17-00063).</p><p><strong>References</strong></p><p>Kattsov V., E. Khlebnikova, I. Shkolnik, and Yu. Rudakova: Probabilistic Regional Climate Projecting as a Basis for the Development of Adaptation Programs for the Economy of the Russian Federation. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 2020, Vol. 45, No. 5, pp. 330–338. Allerton Press, Inc., 2020.</p><p>Shkolnik, I., Pavlova, T., Efimov, S. et al. Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Clim Dyn 50<strong>, </strong>215–230 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3600</p>

scholarly journals Holocene Treeline History and Climate Change Across Northern Eurasia

2000 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 302-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glen M. MacDonald ◽  
Andrei A. Velichko ◽  
Constantine V. Kremenetski ◽  
Olga K. Borisova ◽  
Aleksandra A. Goleva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Present Position ◽  
Summer Insolation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Northern Russia

AbstractRadiocarbon-dated macrofossils are used to document Holocene treeline history across northern Russia (including Siberia). Boreal forest development in this region commenced by 10,000 yr B.P. Over most of Russia, forest advanced to or near the current arctic coastline between 9000 and 7000 yr B.P. and retreated to its present position by between 4000 and 3000 yr B.P. Forest establishment and retreat was roughly synchronous across most of northern Russia. Treeline advance on the Kola Peninsula, however, appears to have occurred later than in other regions. During the period of maximum forest extension, the mean July temperatures along the northern coastline of Russia may have been 2.5° to 7.0°C warmer than modern. The development of forest and expansion of treeline likely reflects a number of complimentary environmental conditions, including heightened summer insolation, the demise of Eurasian ice sheets, reduced sea-ice cover, greater continentality with eustatically lower sea level, and extreme Arctic penetration of warm North Atlantic waters. The late Holocene retreat of Eurasian treeline coincides with declining summer insolation, cooling arctic waters, and neoglaciation.

scholarly journals Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 045008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erwan Monier ◽  
Andrei Sokolov ◽  
Adam Schlosser ◽  
Jeffery Scott ◽  
Xiang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Probabilistic Projections
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