scholarly journals Continental vs. Global Niche-Based Modelling of Freshwater Species’ Distributions: How Big Are the Differences in the Estimated Climate Change Effects?

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 816
Author(s):  
Danijela Markovic ◽  
Jörg Freyhof ◽  
Oskar Kärcher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Properties ◽  
Safety Margin ◽  
Thermal Response ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Freshwater Species ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Preferred Temperature ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Management Actions

Thermal response curves that depict the probability of occurrence along a thermal gradient are used to derive various species’ thermal properties and abilities to cope with warming. However, different thermal responses can be expected for different portions of a species range. We focus on differences in thermal response curves (TRCs) and thermal niche requirements for four freshwater fishes (Coregonus sardinella, Pungitius pungitius, Rutilus rutilus, Salvelinus alpinus) native to Europe at (1) the global and (2) European continental scale. European ranges captured only a portion of the global thermal range with major differences in the minimum (Tmin), maximum (Tmax) and average temperature (Tav) of the respective distributions. Further investigations of the model-derived preferred temperature (Tpref), warming tolerance (WT = Tmax − Tpref), safety margin (SM = Tpref − Tav) and the future climatic impact showed substantially differing results. All considered thermal properties either were under- or overestimated at the European level. Our results highlight that, although continental analyses have an impressive spatial extent, they might deliver misleading estimates of species thermal niches and future climate change impacts, if they do not cover the full species ranges. Studies and management actions should therefore favor whole global range distribution data for analyzing species responses to environmental gradients.

scholarly journals From Phenology and Habitat Preferences to Climate Change: Importance of Citizen Science in Studying Insect Ecology in the Continental Scale with American Red Flat Bark Beetle, Cucujus clavipes, as a Model Species

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 369
Author(s):  
Radomir Jaskuła ◽  
Marta Kolanowska ◽  
Marek Michalski ◽  
Axel Schwerk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Bark Beetle ◽  
Habitat Preferences ◽  
Molecular Data ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Separate Species ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Body Coloration

The American red flat bark beetle, Cucujus clavipes, is a wide distributed saproxylic species divided into two subspecies: ssp. clavipes restricted to eastern regions of North America and ssp. puniceus occurring only in western regions of this continent. Unique morphological features, including body shape and body coloration, make this species easy to recognize even for amateurs. Surprisingly, except some studies focused on physiological adaptations of the species, the ecology of C. clavipes was almost unstudied. Based on over 500 records collected by citizen scientists and deposited in the iNaturalist data base, we studied phenological activity of adult beetles, habitat preferences and impact of future climate change for both subspecies separately. The results clearly show that spp. clavipes and ssp. puniceus can be characterized by differences in phenology and macrohabitat preferences, and their ranges do not overlap at any point. Spp. clavipes is found as more opportunistic taxon occurring in different forests as well as in urban and agricultural areas with tree vegetation always in elevations below 500 m, while elevational distribution of ssp. puniceus covers areas up to 2300 m, and the beetle was observed mainly in forested areas. Moreover, we expect that climate warming will have negative influence on both subspecies with the possible loss of proper niches at level even up to 47–70% of their actual ranges during next few decades. As the species is actually recognized as unthreatened and always co-occurs with many other species, we suggest, because of its expected future habitat loss, to pay more attention to conservationists for possible negative changes in saproxylic insects and/or forest fauna in North America. In addition, as our results clearly show that both subspecies of C. clavipes differ ecologically, which strongly supports earlier significant morphological and physiological differences noted between them, we suggest that their taxonomical status should be verified by molecular data, because very probably they represent separate species.

Responses of photosynthesis and component processes to drought and temperature stress: are Mediterranean trees fit for climate change?

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (11) ◽  
pp. 1783-1805 ◽  
Author(s):  
D Sperlich ◽  
C T Chang ◽  
J Peñuelas ◽  
S Sabaté
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Stress ◽  
Pinus Halepensis ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Species ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Component Processes ◽  
Leaf Shedding ◽  
Seasonal Acclimation

Abstract Global warming is raising concerns about the acclimatory capacity of trees and forests, especially in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. The sensitivity of photosynthesis to temperature is a key uncertainty for projecting the magnitude of terrestrial feedbacks on future climate change. While boreal, temperate and tropical species have been comparatively well investigated, our study provides the first comprehensive overview of the seasonal acclimatory responses of photosynthesis and its component processes to temperature in four Mediterranean climax species under natural conditions. We quantified seasonal changes in the responses of net photosynthesis (Anet), stomatal conductance (gs), mesophyllic conductance (gm) and electron-transport rate (Jcf), and investigated their sensitivity to drought and temperature stress in sunlit and shaded leaves of four Mediterranean tree species (Quercus ilex L., Pinus halepensis Mill., Arbutus unedo L. and Quercus pubescens Willd.). Sunlit leaves, but not shaded leaves, showed a pronounced seasonality in the temperature responses of Anet, gs, gm and Jcf. All four species and variables showed a remarkably dynamic and consistent acclimation of the thermal optimum (Topt), reaching peaks in summer ~29–32 °C. Changes in the shape of the response curves were, however, highly species-specific. Under severe drought, Topt of all variables were on average 22–29% lower. This was accompanied by narrower response curves above all in P. halepensis, reducing the optimal range for photosynthesis to the cooler morning or evening periods. Wider temperature-response curves and less strict stomatal control under severe drought were accompanied by wilting and drought-induced leaf shedding in Q. ilex and Q. pubescens and by additional branch dieback in A. unedo. Mild winter conditions led to a high Topt (~19.1–22.2 °C), benefitting the evergreen species, especially P. halepensis. Seasonal acclimation of Anet was explained better by gs and gm being less pronounced in Jcf. Drought was thus a key factor, in addition to growth temperature, to explain seasonal acclimation of photosynthesis. Severe drought periods may exceed more frequently the high acclimatory capacity of Mediterranean trees to high ambient temperatures, which could lead to reduced growth, increased leaf shedding and, for some species such as A. unedo, increased mortality risk.

scholarly journals Attendance trends threaten future operations of America’s state park systems

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (26) ◽  
pp. 12775-12780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordan W. Smith ◽  
Emily J. Wilkins ◽  
Yu-Fai Leung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stochastic Frontier ◽  
State Legislatures ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Average Annual Rate ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Operating Expenditures

This research examines how the operating expenditures of America’s state park systems will be affected by a continued growth in attendance consistent with observed trends as well as potential climate futures. We construct a longitudinal panel dataset (1984–2017) describing the operations and characteristics of all 50 state park systems. These data are analyzed with a time-varying stochastic frontier model. Estimates from the model are used to forecast operating expenditures to midcentury under four different scenarios. The first scenario assumes annual attendance within each state park system will continue to grow (or decline) at the same average annual rate that it has over the period of observation. The subsequent scenarios assume statewide annual mean temperatures will increase following the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions trajectories. Operating expenditures under a scenario where annual growth in attendance stays consistent with observed trends are forecasted to increase 756% by midcentury; this is an order of magnitude larger than projected expenditures under any of the climate scenarios. The future climate change scenarios yielded increases in operating expenditures between 25% (RCP2.6) and 61% (RCP8.5) by 2050. Attendance is the single largest factor affecting the operations of America’s state park systems, dwarfing the influence of climate change, which is significant and nontrivial. The future of America’s state park systems will depend upon increased support from state legislatures, as well as management actions that generate funds for the maintenance of existing infrastructure and facilities, and the provisioning of services.

scholarly journals Climate Change Increases the Expansion Risk of Helicoverpa zea in China According to Potential Geographical Distribution Estimation

Insects ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Haoxiang Zhao ◽  
Xiaoqing Xian ◽  
Zihua Zhao ◽  
Guifen Zhang ◽  
Wanxue Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Helicoverpa Zea ◽  
Host Plants ◽  
Plant Protection ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Diurnal Range ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables

Helicoverpa zea, a well-documented and endemic pest throughout most of the Americas, affecting more than 100 species of host plants. It is a quarantine pest according to the Asia and Pacific Plant Protection Commission (APPPC) and the catalog of quarantine pests for plants imported to the People’s Republic of China. Based on 1781 global distribution records of H. zea and eight bioclimatic variables, the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of H. zea were predicted by using a calibrated MaxEnt model. The contribution rate of bioclimatic variables and the jackknife method were integrated to assess the significant variables governing the PGDs. The response curves of bioclimatic variables were quantitatively determined to predict the PGDs of H. zea under climate change. The results showed that: (1) four out of the eight variables contributed the most to the model performance, namely, mean diurnal range (bio2), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) PGDs of H. zea under the current climate covered 418.15 × 104 km2, and were large in China; and (3) future climate change will facilitate the expansion of PGDs for H. zea under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 in both the 2030s and 2050s. The conversion of unsuitable to low suitability habitat and moderately to high suitability habitat increased by 8.43% and 2.35%, respectively. From the present day to the 2030s, under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the centroid of the suitable habitats of H. zea showed a general tendency to move eastward; from 2030s to the 2050s, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, it moved southward, and it moved slightly northward under SSP2-4.5. According to bioclimatic conditions, H. zea has a high capacity for colonization by introduced individuals in China. Customs ports should pay attention to host plants and containers of H. zea and should exchange information to strengthen plant quarantine and pest monitoring, thus enhancing target management.

scholarly journals Beach Monitoring and Morphological Response in the Presence of Coastal Defense Strategies at Riccione (Italy)

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 851
Author(s):  
Claudia Romagnoli ◽  
Flavia Sistilli ◽  
Luigi Cantelli ◽  
Margherita Aguzzi ◽  
Nunzio De Nigris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Morphological Evolution ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Defense Strategies ◽  
Morphological Variations ◽  
Natural Processes ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Sediment Redistribution ◽  
Coastal Defense

The coastal area at Riccione, in the southern Emilia-Romagna littoral region, is exposed to erosive processes, which are expected to be enhanced by climate change. The beach, mostly composed of fine sand, is maintained through various defense strategies, including frequent nourishment interventions for balancing the sediment deficit and other experimental solutions for reducing coastal erosion. Artificial reshaping of the beach and “common practices” in the sediment management redefine the beach morphology and the sediment redistribution almost continuously. These activities overlap each other and with the coastal dynamics, and this makes it very difficult to evaluate their effectiveness, as well as the role of natural processes on the beach morphological evolution. Topo-bathymetric and sedimentological monitoring of the beach has been carried out on a regular basis since 2000 by the Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna (Arpae). Further monitoring of the emerged and submerged beach has been carried out in 2019–2021 in the framework of the research project STIMARE, focusing on innovative strategies for coastal monitoring in relation with erosion risk. The aim of this study is to assess the coastal behavior at the interannual/seasonal scale in the southern coastal stretch of Riccione, where the adopted coastal defense strategies and management actions mostly control the morphological variations in the emerged and submerged beach besides the wave and current regime. The topo-bathymetric variations and erosion/accretion patterns provided by multitemporal monitoring have been related to natural processes and to anthropogenic activities. The morphological variations have been also assessed in volumetric terms in the different subzones of the beach, with the aim of better understanding the onshore/offshore sediment exchange in relation with nourishments and in the presence of protection structures. The effectiveness of the adopted interventions to combat erosion, and to cope with future climate change-related impacts, appears not fully successful in the presence of an overall sediment deficit at the coast. This demonstrates the need for repeated monitoring of the emerged and submerged beach in such a critical setting.

What we can learn from the parallels between the COVID-19 and the future climate change crises

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rubén D. Manzanedo ◽  
Peter Manning
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Substantial Portion ◽  
Preventative Measures ◽  
The Future ◽  
Behavioral Norm ◽  
Climate Crisis ◽  
Global Population

The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak pandemic is now a global crisis. It has caused 1.6+ million confirmed cases and 100 000+ deaths at the time of writing and triggered unprecedented preventative measures that have put a substantial portion of the global population under confinement, imposed isolation, and established ‘social distancing’ as a new global behavioral norm. The COVID-19 crisis has affected all aspects of everyday life and work, while also threatening the health of the global economy. This crisis offers also an unprecedented view of what the global climate crisis may look like. In fact, some of the parallels between the COVID-19 crisis and what we expect from the looming global climate emergency are remarkable. Reflecting upon the most challenging aspects of today’s crisis and how they compare with those expected from the climate change emergency may help us better prepare for the future.

Responses of Irish Vegetation to Future Climate Change

2006 ◽  
Vol 106 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael B. Jones ◽  
Alison Donnelly ◽  
Fabrizio Albanito
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change

Future climate change and its impacts over small island states

2002 ◽  
Vol 19 ◽  
pp. 179-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Lal ◽  
H Harasawa ◽  
K Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Island States ◽  
Small Island States
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document