Recent ground thermal dynamics and variations in northern Eurasia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liangzhi Chen ◽  
Juha Aalto ◽  
Miska Luoto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Thermal Dynamics ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Cold Environments ◽  
Continuous Permafrost ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Ground Warming

<p><span>Ground thermal regime in cold environments is key to understanding the effects of climate change on surface–atmosphere feedbacks. The northern Eurasia, covering over half of terrestrial areas north of </span><span>40°N, is sensitive to the ongoing climate change due to underlain permafrost and seasonal frost. Here, we quantify the recent ground thermal dynamics and variations over northern Eurasia by compiling measurements of soil temperature data over 457 sites at multiple depths from 1975-2016. Our analysis shows that the mean annual ground temperature has significant warming trends by 0.30–0.31 °C/decade at depths of 0.8, 1.6, and 3.2 m. We found that the changes in annual maximum ground temperatures were more pronounced than mean annual ground temperatures with a weakened warming magnitude (0.40 to 0.31°C/decade) from upper to lower ground. Our results also suggest the substantial differences in warming magnitudes through parameters and depths over different frost-related areas. The ground over continuous permafrost area warmed faster than non-continuous permafrost and seasonal frost areas in shallow ground (0.8 and 1.6 m depth) but slower in deeper ground (3.2 m). Our study highlights the varied ground temperature evolutions at multiple depths and different frost-related ground</span><span>, suggesting the importance of separated discussions on different frost-affected ground in application and future research. Noteworthy, </span><span>the results indicate that the significant ground warming can promote greenhouse gas emissions from soil to atmosphere, further accelerating climate change.</span></p>

Equilibrium Spin-up of Cold and Warm Permafrost Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cameron Ross ◽  
Ryley Beddoe ◽  
Greg Siemens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Ground Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Multiple Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
C Cycle ◽  
Warm Permafrost

<p>Initialization (spin-up) of a numerical ground temperature model is a critical but often neglected step for solving heat transfer problems in permafrost. Improper initialization can lead to significant underlying model drift in subsequent transient simulations, distorting the effects on ground temperature from future climate change or applied infrastructure.  In a typical spin-up simulation, a year or more of climate data are applied at the surface and cycled repeatedly until ground temperatures are declared to be at equilibrium with the imposed boundary conditions, and independent of the starting conditions.</p><p>Spin-up equilibrium is often simply declared after a specified number of spin-up cycles. In few studies, equilibrium is visually confirmed by plotting ground temperatures vs spin-up cycles until temperatures stabilize; or is declared when a certain inter-cycle-temperature-change threshold is met simultaneously at all depths, such as ∆T ≤ 0.01<sup>o</sup>C per cycle. In this study, we investigate the effectiveness of these methods for determining an equilibrium state in a variety of permafrost models, including shallow and deep (10 – 200 m), high and low saturation soils (S = 100 and S = 20), and cold and warm permafrost (MAGT = ~-10 <sup>o</sup>C and >-1 <sup>o</sup>C). The efficacy of equilibrium criteria 0.01<sup>o</sup>C/cycle and 0.0001<sup>o</sup>C/cycle are compared. Both methods are shown to prematurely indicate equilibrium in multiple model scenarios.  Results show that no single criterion can programmatically detect equilibrium in all tested models, and in some scenarios can result in up to 10<sup>o</sup>C temperature error or 80% less permafrost than at true equilibrium.  A combination of equilibrium criteria and visual confirmation plots is recommended for evaluating and declaring equilibrium in a spin-up simulation.</p><p>Long-duration spin-up is particularly important for deep (10+ m) ground models where thermal inertia of underlying permafrost slows the ground temperature response to surface forcing, often requiring hundreds or even thousands of spin-up cycles to establish equilibrium. Subsequent transient analyses also show that use of a properly initialized 100 m permafrost model can reduce the effect of climate change on mean annual ground temperature of cold permafrost by more than 1 <sup>o</sup>C and 3 <sup>o</sup>C under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate projections, respectively, when compared to an identical 25 m model. These results have important implications for scientists, engineers and policy makers that rely on model projections of long-term permafrost conditions.</p>

scholarly journals Holocene Treeline History and Climate Change Across Northern Eurasia

2000 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 302-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glen M. MacDonald ◽  
Andrei A. Velichko ◽  
Constantine V. Kremenetski ◽  
Olga K. Borisova ◽  
Aleksandra A. Goleva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Present Position ◽  
Summer Insolation ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Northern Russia

AbstractRadiocarbon-dated macrofossils are used to document Holocene treeline history across northern Russia (including Siberia). Boreal forest development in this region commenced by 10,000 yr B.P. Over most of Russia, forest advanced to or near the current arctic coastline between 9000 and 7000 yr B.P. and retreated to its present position by between 4000 and 3000 yr B.P. Forest establishment and retreat was roughly synchronous across most of northern Russia. Treeline advance on the Kola Peninsula, however, appears to have occurred later than in other regions. During the period of maximum forest extension, the mean July temperatures along the northern coastline of Russia may have been 2.5° to 7.0°C warmer than modern. The development of forest and expansion of treeline likely reflects a number of complimentary environmental conditions, including heightened summer insolation, the demise of Eurasian ice sheets, reduced sea-ice cover, greater continentality with eustatically lower sea level, and extreme Arctic penetration of warm North Atlantic waters. The late Holocene retreat of Eurasian treeline coincides with declining summer insolation, cooling arctic waters, and neoglaciation.

scholarly journals Influence of Rainfall Changes on the Temperature Regime of Permafrost in Central Yakutia

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1230
Author(s):  
Aleksandr Zhirkov ◽  
Petr Permyakov ◽  
Zhi Wen ◽  
Anatolii Kirillin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Regime ◽  
Meteorological Parameter ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Ground Temperatures ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Central Yakutia ◽  
The Mean

Climate change effects, such as melting of glaciers and sea ice in response to rising temperatures, may lead to an increase in global water availability and thus in precipitation. In Central Yakutia, as one of the possible options for climate change, an increase in rainfall is possible, which makes up more than 60% of the annual precipitation. Rainfall is a highly variable meteorological parameter both spatially and temporally. In order to assess its effect on the ground temperature regime in Central Yakutia, we conducted manipulation and numerical experiments with increased rainfall. The manipulation experiment results suggest that a significant (three-fold) increase in rainfall can lower the mean annual ground temperatures locally. The long-term simulation predicts that a 50% increase in rainfall would have a warming effect on the ground thermal regime on a regional scale. For Central Yakutia, infiltration of increased precipitation has been shown to have both warming and cooling effect depending on the area affected.

Twitter Users’ Displays of Affect in the Global Warming Debate

2021 ◽  
pp. 004728162110078
Author(s):  
Shanna Cameron ◽  
Alexandra Russell ◽  
Luke Brake ◽  
Katherine Fredlund ◽  
Angela Morris
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Technical Communication ◽  
Research Team ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Quantitative Content ◽  
Twitter Users

This article engages with recent discussions in the field of technical communication that call for climate change research that moves beyond the believer/denier dichotomy. For this study, our research team coded 900 tweets about climate change and global warming for different emotions in order to understand how Twitter users rely on affect rhetorically. Our findings use quantitative content analysis to challenge current assumptions about writing and affect on social media, and our results indicate a number of arenas for future research on affect, global warming, and rhetoric.

scholarly journals Climate Change Sustainability: From Bargaining to Cooperative Balanced Approach

Games ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 45
Author(s):  
Tiziana Ciano ◽  
Massimiliano Ferrara ◽  
Mariangela Gangemi ◽  
Domenica Stefania Merenda ◽  
Bruno Antonio Pansera
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cooperative Game Theory ◽  
Research Field ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Open Problems ◽  
Cooperative Approach ◽  
Change Dynamics ◽  
Bargaining Solutions ◽  
Balanced Approach ◽  
Competitive Bargaining

This work aims to provide different perspectives on the relationships between cooperative game theory and the research field concerning climate change dynamics. New results are obtained in the framework of competitive bargaining solutions and related issues, moving from a cooperative approach to a competitive one. Furthermore, the dynamics of balanced and super-balanced games are exposed, with particular reference to coalitions. Some open problems are presented to aid future research in this area.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic climate change has changed frequency of past flood during 2010-2013

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yukiko Hirabayashi ◽  
Haireti Alifu ◽  
Dai Yamazaki ◽  
Yukiko Imada ◽  
Hideo Shiogama ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe ongoing increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing have changed the global water cycle and are expected to lead to more intense precipitation extremes and associated floods. However, given the limitations of observations and model simulations, evidence of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on past extreme river discharge is scarce. Here, a large ensemble numerical simulation revealed that 64% (14 of 22 events) of floods analyzed during 2010-2013 were affected by anthropogenic climate change. Four flood events in Asia, Europe, and South America were enhanced within the 90% likelihood range. Of eight snow-induced floods analyzed, three were enhanced and four events were suppressed, indicating that the effects of climate change are more likely to be seen in the snow-induced floods. A global-scale analysis of flood frequency revealed that anthropogenic climate change enhanced the occurrence of floods during 2010-2013 in wide area of northern Eurasia, part of northwestern India, and central Africa, while suppressing the occurrence of floods in part of northeastern Eurasia, southern Africa, central to eastern North America and South America. Since the changes in the occurrence of flooding are the results of several hydrological processes, such as snow melt and changes in seasonal and extreme precipitation, and because a climate change signal is often not detectable from limited observation records, large ensemble discharge simulation provides insights into anthropogenic effects on past fluvial floods.

scholarly journals Manual Therapy in Cervical and Lumbar Radiculopathy: A Systematic Review of the Literature

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 6176
Author(s):  
Tomasz Kuligowski ◽  
Anna Skrzek ◽  
Błażej Cieślik
Keyword(s):  
Manual Therapy ◽  
Functional Outcomes ◽  
Web Of Science ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Lumbar Radiculopathy ◽  
Inclusion Criteria ◽  
Randomized Controlled ◽  
The Mean

The aim of this study was to describe and update current knowledge of manual therapy accuracy in treating cervical and lumbar radiculopathy, to identify the limitations in current studies, and to suggest areas for future research. The study was conducted according to PRISMA guidelines for systematic reviews. A comprehensive literature review was conducted using PubMed and Web of Science databases up to April 2020. The following inclusion criteria were used: (1) presence of radiculopathy; (2) treatment defined as manual therapy (i.e., traction, manipulation, mobilization); and (3) publication defined as a Randomized Controlled Trial. The electronic literature search resulted in 473 potentially relevant articles. Finally, 27 articles were accepted: 21 on cervical (CR) and 6 in lumbar radiculopathy (LR). The mean PEDro score for CR was 6.6 (SD 1.3), and for LR 6.7 (SD 1.6). Traction-oriented techniques are the most frequently chosen treatment form for CR and are efficient in reducing pain and improving functional outcomes. In LR, each of the included publications used a different form of manual therapy, which makes it challenging to summarize knowledge in this group. Of included publications, 93% were either of moderate or low quality, which indicates that quality improvement is necessary for this type of research.

scholarly journals Are We Doing ‘Systems’ Research? An Assessment of Methods for Climate Change Adaptation to Hydrohazards in a Complex World

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa Bedinger ◽  
Lindsay Beevers ◽  
Lila Collet ◽  
Annie Visser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Nature ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Local Context ◽  
Multiple Time Scales ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Systems Research

Climate change is a product of the Anthropocene, and the human–nature system in which we live. Effective climate change adaptation requires that we acknowledge this complexity. Theoretical literature on sustainability transitions has highlighted this and called for deeper acknowledgment of systems complexity in our research practices. Are we heeding these calls for ‘systems’ research? We used hydrohazards (floods and droughts) as an example research area to explore this question. We first distilled existing challenges for complex human–nature systems into six central concepts: Uncertainty, multiple spatial scales, multiple time scales, multimethod approaches, human–nature dimensions, and interactions. We then performed a systematic assessment of 737 articles to examine patterns in what methods are used and how these cover the complexity concepts. In general, results showed that many papers do not reference any of the complexity concepts, and no existing approach addresses all six. We used the detailed results to guide advancement from theoretical calls for action to specific next steps. Future research priorities include the development of methods for consideration of multiple hazards; for the study of interactions, particularly in linking the short- to medium-term time scales; to reduce data-intensivity; and to better integrate bottom–up and top–down approaches in a way that connects local context with higher-level decision-making. Overall this paper serves to build a shared conceptualisation of human–nature system complexity, map current practice, and navigate a complexity-smart trajectory for future research.

Climate change and security in Canada

2021 ◽  
Vol 76 (2) ◽  
pp. 183-203
Author(s):  
Wilfrid Greaves
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
National Security ◽  
Human Security ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Research ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Domestic Conflict ◽  
The Third ◽  
Current State ◽  
Humanitarian Crises

This article examines the implications of human-caused climate change for security in Canada. The first section outlines the current state of climate change, the second discusses climate change impacts on human security in Canada, and the third outlines four other areas of Canada’s national interests threatened by climate change: economic threats; Arctic threats; humanitarian crises at home and abroad; and the threat of domestic conflict. In the conclusion, I argue that climate change has clearly not been successfully “securitized” in Canada, despite the material threats it poses to human and national security, and outline directions for future research.

scholarly journals Consumer willingness-to-pay for restaurant surcharges to reduce carbon emissions: default and information effects

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Dede Long ◽  
Grant H. West ◽  
Rodolfo M. Nayga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Willingness To Pay ◽  
Contingent Valuation ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Dichotomous Choice ◽  
Carbon Reduction ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Agriculture And Food

Abstract The agriculture and food sectors contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. About 15 percent of food-related carbon emissions are channeled through restaurants. Using a contingent valuation (CV) method with double-bounded dichotomous choice (DBDC) questions, this article investigates U.S. consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for an optional restaurant surcharge in support of carbon emission reduction programs. The mean estimated WTP for a surcharge is 6.05 percent of an average restaurant check, while the median WTP is 3.64 percent. Our results show that individuals have a higher WTP when the surcharge is automatically added to restaurant checks. We also find that an information nudge—a short climate change script—significantly increases WTP. Additionally, our results demonstrate that there is heterogeneity in treatment effects across consumers’ age, environmental awareness, and economic views. Our findings suggest that a surcharge program could transfer a meaningful amount of the agricultural carbon reduction burden to consumers that farmers currently shoulder.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document