scholarly journals Algorithm and Results of Short-Term Forecast of Changes in the COVID-19 Spread Coefcient in the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation

2021 ◽  
pp. 98-105
Author(s):  
A. Ya. Nikitin ◽  
M. V. Chesnokova ◽  
S. V. Balakhonov
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forward Algorithm ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Trend Forecasting ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Restrictive Measures

There was a decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases across many entities of the Russian Federation towards the end of summer season-2020. However, the disease remains a relevant threat to the public health and economy and the possibility of a second epidemic wave is not excluded. Rate of infection transmission (Rt) is one of the most important indicators to justify the transition to next stage of removing/introducing restrictive measures on COVID-19.Objective of the work was to describe the algorithm of analysis and short-term forecast of coronavirus spread rate, to assess correspondence between theoretically expected and actual values of this indicator.Materials and methods. Procedure for making a short-term extrapolation forecast of Rt in 10 RF constituent entities, depending on the presence or absence of indicator trends with calculation of a 95 % confdence interval of possible changes in its value is provided.Results and discussion. It is proposed to carry out Rt forecast based on averaged values over a week, combining regression analysis and expert assessment of time series dynamics nature for prompt transition from trend forecasting to extrapolation of stationary observation sequences and vice versa. It has been demonstrated that predicted Rt values are not statistically different from actual values. When making managerial decisions on COVID-19 prevention, special attention should be paid to cases when actual value of Rt exceeds the upper limit of confdence interval. Six (20.0 %) such cases were detected in surveyed entities on calendar weeks 33–35. Three of them were registered in Trans-Baikal Territory, where upward trend was reported during that period of time. The cause of this phenomenon should be analyzed. The put forward algorithm of analysis and forecasting of the Rt value changes, which was tested in 10 entities of Russia, provides a reliable basis for making management decisions on removing/introducing restrictive measures for COVID-19 prevention.

The causes of poverty in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-36
Author(s):  
I.S. Ivanchenko
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Financial Situation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Subject. This article analyzes the changes in poverty of the population of the Russian Federation. Objectives. The article aims to identify macroeconomic variables that will have the most effective impact on reducing poverty in Russia. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of logical, comparative, and statistical analyses. Results. The article presents a list of macroeconomic variables that, according to Western scholars, can influence the incomes of the poorest stratum of society and the number of unemployed in the country. The regression analysis based on the selected variables reveals those ones that have a statistically significant impact on the financial situation of the Russian poor. Relevance. The results obtained can be used by the financial market mega-regulator to make anti-poverty decisions. In addition, the models built can be useful to the executive authorities at various levels for short-term forecasting of the number of unemployed and their income in drawing up regional development plans for the areas.

Developing the basis of the matrix model of the regional innovation subsystem

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 2183-2204
Author(s):  
E.I. Moskvitina
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Matrix Model ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Expert Assessment ◽  
Regional Innovation ◽  
Regional Strategies ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
The Russian Federation

Subject. This article deals with the issues related to the formation and implementation of the innovation capacity of the Russian Federation subjects. Objectives. The article aims to develop the organizational and methodological foundations for the formation of a model of the regional innovation subsystem. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of analysis and synthesis, economics and statistics analysis, and the expert assessment method. Results. The article presents a developed basis of the regional innovation subsystem matrix model. It helps determine the relationship between the subjects and the parameters of the regional innovation subsystem. To evaluate the indicators characterizing the selected parameters, the Volga Federal District regions are considered as a case study. The article defines the process of reconciliation of interests between the subjects of regional innovation. Conclusions. The results obtained can be used by regional executive bodies when developing regional strategies for the socio-economic advancement of the Russian Federation subjects.

scholarly journals Principal Possibility of the Successful Nowcast and Short-Term Forecast in the Middle Atmosphere Based on the Observed UV Irradiance

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
T. Egorova ◽  
E. Rozanov ◽  
A. V. Shapiro ◽  
W. Schmutz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Atmospheric Species ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Uv Irradiance ◽  
Solar Uv ◽  
Solar Uv Irradiance

We have applied chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOL to simulate the distribution of the temperature and gas species in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. As an input for the simulation, we employ daily spectral solar UV irradiance measured by SUSIM instrument onboard UARS satellite in January 1992. We have carried out an ensemble of nine 1-month long simulations using slightly different initial states of the atmosphere. We have compared the obtained time evolution of the simulated species and temperature with available satellite measurements. The obtained results allowed us to define the areas where the nowcast and short-term forecast of the atmospheric species with CCM SOCOL could be successful.

scholarly journals On the issue of changes in labor legislation on remote (remote) work (experience of the COVID-19 pandemic)

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (8) ◽  
pp. 118-124
Author(s):  
E. A. Kashekhlebova
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Work Experience ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Legal Regulation ◽  
Scale Transformation ◽  
Labor Rights ◽  
Remote Work ◽  
Labor Legislation ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Restrictive Measures

The sphere of social and labor rights has undergone a large-scale transformation due to the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictive measures. Almost all enterprises and organizations during the period of restrictive measures were forced to switch to a remote (remote) mode of operation. Some, and sometimes all, employees of organizations were forced to perform their labor function, stipulated by an employment contract, at home.At the same time, before the introduction of the above-mentioned forced measures and subsequent amendments to the labor legislation regarding the regulation of the work of “homeworkers”, there were no provisions in the domestic labor legislation that would allow establishing legal regulation of the emergence of this kind of relationship between an employee and an employer.In December 2020, the Federal Law “On Amendments to the Labor Code of the Russian Federation regarding the regulation of remote (remote) work and temporary transfer of an employee to remote (remote) work on the initiative of the employer in exceptional cases” was adopted.This article is devoted to a conceptual review of the amendments to the Labor Code of the Russian Federation adopted in 2020, aimed at establishing the regulation of remote (remote) work, as well as the procedure for temporary transfer of an employee to remote (remote) work on the initiative of the employer in strictly exceptional cases.

scholarly journals Features of the functioning of financial pyramids using digital assets (using the example of the Finico project): criminological analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 104-109
Author(s):  
S. S. Grozin ◽  
◽  
ZH.V. Ostrovskikh ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Criminological Analysis ◽  
Digital Assets

The article deals with the problem of the emergence and functioning of financial pyramids based on the use of digital assets, using the example of the «Finico» project. The main performance indicators are analyzed, as well as the reasons that influenced the success of this project, its scale and duration of existence are characterized. Particular attention is paid to the ways of organizing and carrying out illegal financial activities with signs of financial pyramids, and some measures are proposed to counter it. A short-term forecast of an increase in the number of crimes committed using information, telecommunications and digital technologies in this area is given.

USE OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN FORECAST TASKS

2020 ◽  
pp. 22-27
Author(s):  
E.S. Lartseva ◽  
◽  
A.D. Kuznetsova
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Animal Population ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Statistical Estimates ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Applied Software ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Russian Federation

Based on official statistics on the number, of representatives of the family of non-ruminant cloven-hoofed animals (Artiodactyl) on the territory of the Russian Federation. Using the example of two species: domestic pigs and wild boars, the dynamics of the indicator for the long term is analyzed. Multidirectional trends were revealed for each species. Mathematical models of the dynamics of the livestock were obtained using the methods of regression analysis and applied software. Statistical estimates of the quality of animal population models were obtained. The short-term forecast for 2020 has been fulfilled.

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