USE OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS IN FORECAST TASKS

2020 ◽  
pp. 22-27
Author(s):  
E.S. Lartseva ◽  
◽  
A.D. Kuznetsova
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Animal Population ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Statistical Estimates ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Applied Software ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Russian Federation

Based on official statistics on the number, of representatives of the family of non-ruminant cloven-hoofed animals (Artiodactyl) on the territory of the Russian Federation. Using the example of two species: domestic pigs and wild boars, the dynamics of the indicator for the long term is analyzed. Multidirectional trends were revealed for each species. Mathematical models of the dynamics of the livestock were obtained using the methods of regression analysis and applied software. Statistical estimates of the quality of animal population models were obtained. The short-term forecast for 2020 has been fulfilled.

Monitoring and Prediction of Air Quality using Neural Network

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Shwetal Raipure
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Pollution Index ◽  
Learning Technologies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Initial Information ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
The Neural Network

Air Quality monitoring is very important in today s world. There are many harmful pollutants present in the air which are very harmful for human health. Prolonged consumption of such air may lead to severe death and harmful diseases. It is also harmful for crops as well as animals which may damage natural environment. There are  several pollutants which are present in the air that decreases the quality of air such as sulfur oxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and dioxide, and particulate matter. Neural Network  can be used for prediction of population for short term as well as long term using a deep learning technologies. Neural network specify two types of predictive models. the first one is the a temporal which is for short-term forecast of the pollutants in the air for the short coming or nearest days and the second one is  a spatial forecast of atmospheric pollution index in any point of city. The artificial neural networks takes initial information and consider the hidden dependencies are used to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the ecology management decisions. In this paper the forecasting of atmospheric air pollution index in industrial cities based on the  neural network model has proposed.

Selective statistical estimates of multi-year monthly concentrations of biogenous pollution of small rivers of the Northwest zone of the Russian Federation

2020 ◽  
pp. 9-13
Author(s):  
Sergey Kovalenko
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Processing ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Small Rivers ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Statistical Estimates ◽  
Scientific Task ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Agricultural Areas

The management of surface watercourses is an urgent scientific task. The article presents the results of statistical processing of long-term monthly data of field observations of hydrological and hydrochemical parameters along the Upper Yerga small river in the Vologda region. Sampling estimates of statistical parameters are obtained, autocorrelation and correlation analyzes are performed. The limiting periods from the point of view of pollution for water receivers receiving wastewater from drained agricultural areas are identified.

The causes of poverty in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-36
Author(s):  
I.S. Ivanchenko
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Financial Situation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Subject. This article analyzes the changes in poverty of the population of the Russian Federation. Objectives. The article aims to identify macroeconomic variables that will have the most effective impact on reducing poverty in Russia. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of logical, comparative, and statistical analyses. Results. The article presents a list of macroeconomic variables that, according to Western scholars, can influence the incomes of the poorest stratum of society and the number of unemployed in the country. The regression analysis based on the selected variables reveals those ones that have a statistically significant impact on the financial situation of the Russian poor. Relevance. The results obtained can be used by the financial market mega-regulator to make anti-poverty decisions. In addition, the models built can be useful to the executive authorities at various levels for short-term forecasting of the number of unemployed and their income in drawing up regional development plans for the areas.

THE VALUE OF LOVE IN THE SYSTEM OF FORMATION OF THE PROFESSIONAL MATURITY OF THE EDUCATOR

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (10(79)) ◽  
pp. 12-18
Author(s):  
G. Bubyreva
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
The State ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Right

The existing legislation determines the education as "an integral and focused process of teaching and upbringing, which represents a socially important value and shall be implemented so as to meet the interests of the individual, the family, the society and the state". However, even in this part, the meaning of the notion ‘socially significant benefit is not specified and allows for a wide range of interpretation [2]. Yet the more inconcrete is the answer to the question – "who and how should determine the interests of the individual, the family and even the state?" The national doctrine of education in the Russian Federation, which determined the goals of teaching and upbringing, the ways to attain them by means of the state policy regulating the field of education, the target achievements of the development of the educational system for the period up to 2025, approved by the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of October 4, 2000 #751, was abrogated by the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of March 29, 2014 #245 [7]. The new doctrine has not been developed so far. The RAE Academician A.B. Khutorsky believes that the absence of the national doctrine of education presents a threat to national security and a violation of the right of citizens to quality education. Accordingly, the teacher has to solve the problem of achieving the harmony of interests of the individual, the family, the society and the government on their own, which, however, judging by the officially published results, is the task that exceeds the abilities of the participants of the educational process.  The particular concern about the results of the patriotic upbringing served as a basis for the legislative initiative of the RF President V. V. Putin, who introduced the project of an amendment to the Law of RF "About Education of the Russian Federation" to the State Duma in 2020, regarding the quality of patriotic upbringing [3]. Patriotism, considered by the President of RF V. V. Putin as the only possible idea to unite the nation is "THE FEELING OF LOVE OF THE MOTHERLAND" and the readiness for every sacrifice and heroic deed for the sake of the interests of your Motherland. However, the practicing educators experience shortfalls in efficient methodologies of patriotic upbringing, which should let them bring up citizens, loving their Motherland more than themselves. The article is dedicated to solution to this problem based on the Value-sense paradigm of upbringing educational dynasty of the Kurbatovs [15].

scholarly journals The Function of Casual Sex Action and Inaction Regret: A Longitudinal Investigation

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 147470492199833
Author(s):  
Leif Edward Ottesen Kennair ◽  
Trond Viggo Grøntvedt ◽  
Mons Bendixen
Keyword(s):  
Casual Sex ◽  
Adaptive Function ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Behavioral Choices ◽  
Sexual Disgust ◽  
Sexual Regret ◽  
Adaptive Shifts ◽  
Sexual Strategies Theory

In several recent papers the sex difference in regret predicted by sexual strategies theory has been supported: men more than women report regret passing up short-term sexual opportunities (inaction regret), while women regret having had sexual encounters (action regret). However, the adaptive function of regret, to improve future behavioral choices, has not been tested. In this first longitudinal test of behavioral change following regret, we consider whether regret actually results in adaptive shifts of behavior: will men who regret passing up sex engage in more short-term sex following regret? Will women who regret short-term encounters either choose better quality partners, reduce number of one-night stands or shift their strategy to long-term relationships? Across two waves (NT1 = 399, 65.4% women and NT2 = 222, 66.2% women) students responded to questions about casual sex action regret and inaction regret, along with possible outcomes, intrapersonal traits, and concurrent contextual predictors. There was no clear evidence for the proposed functional shifts in sexual behavior. Casual sex regret was associated with respondent sex and stable individual differences, such as sociosexual attitudes, regret processing and metacognitions, but the effect of these predictors were not consistent across the two waves. Among the tested concurrent contextual predictors, sexual disgust was the most consistent across waves. Regret is considered a gauge of the value and quality of the short-term sexual encounter. However, tentatively we conclude that after this first test of function using longitudinal data, we find no evidence of a mating strategy shifting effect following sexual regret.

scholarly journals HGG-47. DECREASED GROWTH VELOCITY WITH LONG TERM USE OF BRAFV600e AND MEK INHIBITION IN A PATIENT WITH ANAPLASTIC GANGLIOGLIOMA

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (Supplement_3) ◽  
pp. iii352-iii352
Author(s):  
Hung Tran ◽  
Robert Cooper
Keyword(s):  
Growth Velocity ◽  
Direct Result ◽  
Chromosomal Microarray ◽  
Mek Inhibition ◽  
Follow Up Study ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract PURPOSE To describe decreased growth velocity with long term use of BRAFV600e and MEK inhibition in a patient with anaplastic ganglioglioma. RESULTS 4-year-old patient was found to have a 6 x 4.6 x 5 cm mass in the hypothalamus. Pathology consistent with anaplastic ganglioglioma and chromosomal microarray revealed a BRAFV600e mutation. Patient started on dabrafenib and trametinib and tumor decreased 85% after 3 months. She is stable without significant toxicities 39 months on therapy, and is now 8 years old. Patient had been growing at the 25% for weight and 12% for height but is now 65% for weight and 0.5% for height. It is difficult to tease out the relationship between the tumor, the location of the tumor, and the BRAF and MEK inhibitors and their effect on growth. Discussions with the family and endocrinology are ongoing but being <1% for height will lead to decrease in quality of life. CONCLUSIONS Further follow-up study is needed to determine if this is truly a long-term toxicity, or if this may just be a direct result of the location of the tumor. Would supplementation with growth hormone in this patient lead to losing control of a high grade tumor, or would it simply replace a hormone that is not produced?

scholarly journals MENEJMEN RISIKO DALAM PERFEKTIF ISLAM

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Supriyo Supriyo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Production System ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Islamic Perspective ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Future ◽  
Short Run ◽  
A Company

Human life with all its activities in order to meet the needs of life always will always faced the possibility of risk either directly or indirectly, can occur in the short term or long term. A possibility of the occurrence or risk had certainly will affect the activity to be done And adversely affect the economy of a family and even a company, if the risks that occur have a vital impact on the family or an organization. Many failures within a company's organization are due to unforeseen risks occurring as for example the company never thinks that a newly established company is still in the short run abruptly because a workforce lacking control in the production system creates a great fire and spends all and has a bad impact For the economy of a family and even a company, if the risks that occur have a vital impact on the family or an organization. Many failures within a company's organization are due to unforeseen risks occurring as for example the company never thinks that a newly established company is still in the short run abruptly because a workforce lacking control in the production system creates a terrible fire and consumes all the company's assets Newly established. Everyone or anyone else would not want the incident to happen and befall themselves and his business in the future. Keywords: Islamic perspective, Risk management

scholarly journals IMPLANTS AND INJECTIONS ARE FAVORITE CONTRACEPTION TOOLS IN SUMATERA SELATAN

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-150
Author(s):  
Mukni Mukni
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
Contraceptive Methods ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Simple Linear Regression Analysis

Background: The choice of contraception by family planning acceptors greatly determines the success rate of the family planning program, because not all contraceptives are suitable for someone. This study aims to determine what types of contraceptives chosen by family planning acceptors and whether there is a relationship between the selection of contraceptives there is a relationship with the poverty level in the District / City in South Sumatra in 2015, 2016 and 2017. The source of data obtained from the Provincial BPS South Sumatra. Methodology: This study uses a descriptive approach with a simple linear regression analysis method. Results: The results of the analysis were grouped into two, first long-term contraception method KB IUD, MOW, MOP and implants, both short-term contraceptive methods namely injection KB, pill and condom from 17 regencies / cities in South Sumatra. Conclusion: contraception devices that are mostly chosen by long-term contraceptive methods are implants (10000-35000) or 10-20 times larger than other contraceptives. Short-term contraceptive methods are injections, (7700 - 76000) or 5-7 times greater than other contraceptives. From the simple linear regression analysis it turns out that the relationship of long-term contraceptive selection by acceptors with the poverty level is R² = 0.7382 and the short-term method R² = 0.9223. District / City Governments in South Sumatra should provide alokon (contraceptive devices and drugs) in accordance with the type and amount in the field to be on target

scholarly journals ImmunoCAP® ISAC and Microtest for multiplex allergen testing in people with difficult to manage allergic disease: a systematic review and cost analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (67) ◽  
pp. 1-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Westwood ◽  
Bram Ramaekers ◽  
Shona Lang ◽  
Nigel Armstrong ◽  
Caro Noake ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Conference Proceedings ◽  
Citation Index ◽  
Clinical Effectiveness ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cost Analyses ◽  
Immunocap Isac

BackgroundAllergy is a form of immune-mediated exaggerated sensitivity (hypersensitivity) to a substance that is either inhaled, swallowed, injected or comes into contact with the skin. Foreign substances that provoke allergies are called allergens. It has been claimed that multiplex allergen testing may help in diagnosing the cause of symptoms in patients with an unclear cause of allergy or who are allergic to more than one substance.ObjectivesTo evaluate multiplex allergen testing [devices that can measure the presence of multiple immunoglobulin E (IgE) antibodies in a patient’s blood at the same time], by assessing (1) clinical effectiveness (allergy symptoms, incidence of acute exacerbations, mortality, adverse events of testing and treatment, health-care presentations or admissions, health-related quality of life); (2) effects on treatment (diet, immunotherapy medications, other potential testing); (3) any additional diagnostic information provided by multiplex allergen testing; and (4) cost-effectiveness (cost of different assessment strategies).MethodsFifteen databases were searched from 2005 to April 2015, including MEDLINE (via OvidSp), MEDLINE In-Process Citations, MEDLINE Daily Update, PubMed (National Library of Medicine), EMBASE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), Health Technology Assessment (HTA) database, Science Citation Index (SCI), Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science (CPCI-S), BIOSIS Previews, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) HTA programme, and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA); supplementary searches of conference proceedings and trials registries were performed. Review methods followed published guidance from the Cochrane Collaboration and the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York, UK. The methodological quality of included studies was assessed using appropriate published tools or a review-specific tool designed by the project team. Studies were summarised in a narrative synthesis. Owing to a lack of data on the clinical effectiveness of multiplex allergen testing, no long-term cost-effectiveness model was developed. A conceptual model structure was developed and cost analyses were performed to examine the short-term costs of various possible diagnostic pathways.ResultsFifteen studies were included in the review. The very limited available data indicated that the addition of multiplex allergen testing [ImmunoCAP®Immuno Solid-phase Allergen Chip (ISAC), Thermo Fisher Scientific/Phadia AB, Uppsala, Sweden] to standard diagnostic work-up can change the clinicians’ views on the diagnosis, management and treatment of patients. There was some indication that the use of ImmunoCAP ISAC testing may be useful to guide decisions on the discontinuation of restrictive diets, the content of allergen-specific immunotherapy (SIT) prescriptions, and whether or not patients should receive SIT. However, none of the studies that we identified reported any information on clinical outcomes subsequent to changes in treatment or management. There was some evidence that ImmunoCAP ISAC may be useful for discriminating allergens that are structurally similar and are recognised by the same IgE antibody (cross-immunoreactive). No data were available for Microtest (Microtest Matrices Ltd, London, UK). Detailed cost analyses suggested that multiplex allergen testing would have to result in a substantial reduction of the proportions of patients receiving single IgE testing and oral food challenge tests in order to be cost-saving in the short term.ConclusionsNo recommendations for service provision can be made based on the analyses included in this report. It is suggested that a consensus-based protocol for the use of multiplex allergen testing be developed. The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the proposed protocol should then be assessed by comparing long-term clinical and quality of life outcomes and resource use in patients managed using the protocol with those managed using a standard diagnostic pathway.Study registrationThis study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015019739.FundingThis project was a Diagnostic Assessment Report commissioned by the NIHR HTA programme on behalf of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence.

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