Data-Driven Causal Analyses of Parent-Child Well Interactions for Well Spacing Decisions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rohan Sakhardande ◽  
Deepak Devegowda
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Drug Efficacy ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Petroleum Engineering ◽  
Well Performance ◽  
Well Spacing ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Naive Approach ◽  
Parent Child

Abstract The analyses of parent-child well performance is a complex problem depending on the interplay between timing, completion design, formation properties, direct frac-hits and well spacing. Assessing the impact of well spacing on parent or child well performance is therefore challenging. A naïve approach that is purely observational does not control for completion design or formation properties and can compromise well spacing decisions and economics and perhaps, lead to non-intuitive results. By using concepts from causal inference in randomized clinical trials, we quantify the impact of well spacing decisions on parent and child well performance. The fundamental concept behind causal inference is that causality facilitates prediction; but being able to predict does not imply causality because of association between the variables. In this study, we work with a large dataset of over 3000 wells in a large oil-bearing province in Texas. The dataset includes several covariates such as completion design (proppant/fluid volumes, frac-stages, lateral length, cluster spacing, clusters/stage and others) and formation properties (mechanical and petrophysical properties) as well as downhole location. We evaluate the impact of well spacing on 6-month and 1-year cumulative oil in four groups associated with different ranges of parent-child spacing. By assessing the statistical balance between the covariates for both parent and child well groups (controlling for completion and formation properties), we estimate the causal impact of well spacing on parent and child well performance. We compare our analyses with the routine naïve approach that gives non-intuitive results. In each of the four groups associated with different ranges of parent-child well spacing, the causal workflow quantifies the production loss associated with the parent and child well. This degradation in performance is seen to decrease with increasing well spacing and we provide an optimal well spacing value for this specific multi-bench unconventional play that has been validated in the field. The naïve analyses based on simply assessing association or correlation, on the contrary, shows increasing child well degradation for increasing well spacing, which is simply not supported by the data. The routinely applied correlative analyses between the outcome (cumulative oil) and predictors (well spacing) fails simply because it does not control for variations in completion design over the years, nor does it account for variations in the formation properties. To our knowledge, there is no other paper in petroleum engineering literature that speaks of causal inference. This is a fundamental precept in medicine to assess drug efficacy by controlling for age, sex, habits and other covariates. The same workflow can easily be generalized to assess well spacing decisions and parent-child well performance across multi-generational completion designs and spatially variant formation properties.

Closing the Gap in Characterizing the Parent Child Effect for Unconventional Reservoirs - A Case of Study in Vaca Muerta Shale Formation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Lerza ◽  
Sergio Cuervo ◽  
Sahil Malhotra
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracture ◽  
Production Performance ◽  
Drainage Area ◽  
Real Field ◽  
Well Spacing ◽  
Fracture Development ◽  
Vaca Muerta ◽  
Pressure Depletion ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Parent Child

Abstract In Shale and Tight, the term "Parent-Child effect" refers to the impact the depleted area and corresponding stress changes originated by the production of a previously drilled well, the "parent", has over the generated hydraulic fracture geometry, conforming initial drainage area and consequent production performance of a new neighbor well, called "child". Such effect might be considered analogous to the no flow boundary created when the drainage areas of two wells meet at a certain distance from them in conventional reservoirs; but, unconventional developments exhibit higher exposure to a more impactful version of this phenomena, given their characteristic tighter well spacing and the effect pressure depletion of the nearby area by the neighbor well has over the child well's hydraulic fracture development. Due to the importance the Parent-Child effect has for unconventional developments, this study aims first to generally characterize this effect and then quantify its expected specific project impact based on real field data from the Vaca Muerta formation. To do so, we developed a methodology where fracture and reservoir simulation were applied for calibrating a base model using field observed data such as microseismic, tracers, daily production data and well head pressure measurements. The calibrated model was then coupled with a geomechanical reservoir simulator and used to predict pressure and stress tensor profiles across different depletion times. On these different resulting scenarios, child wells were hydraulically fractured with varying well spacing and completion designs. Finally, the Expected Ultimate Recovery (EUR) impact versus well spacing and the parent´s production time were built for different child´s completion design alternatives, analyzed and contrasted against previously field observed data. Results obtained from the characterization work suggests the parent child effect is generated by a combination of initial drainage area changes and stress magnitude and direction changes, which are both dependent of the pressure depletion from the parent well. Furthermore, the results show how the well spacing and parent's production timing, as well as parent's and child's completion design, significantly affect the magnitude of the expected parent child effect impact over the child's EUR.

Mom always liked me better: The impact of parent--child resemblance on kin investment

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Z. Gold ◽  
David S. Friedman ◽  
Jacklyn M. Sullivan ◽  
Stephen Sullivan
Keyword(s):  
Kin Investment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Parent Child

Dietary Patterns: A New Therapeutic Approach for Depression?

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariana Jesus ◽  
Tânia Silva ◽  
César Cagigal ◽  
Vera Martins ◽  
Carla Silva
Keyword(s):  
Depressive Symptoms ◽  
Dietary Patterns ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Dietary Intervention ◽  
Common Mental Disorder ◽  
Controlled Trial ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Inverse Association ◽  
The Impact

Introduction: The field of nutritional psychiatry is a fast-growing one. Although initially, it focused on the effects of vitamins and micronutrients in mental health, in the last decade, its focus also extended to the dietary patterns. The possibility of a dietary cost-effective intervention in the most common mental disorder, depression, cannot be overlooked due to its potential large-scale impact. Method: A classic review of the literature was conducted, and studies published between 2010 and 2018 focusing on the impact of dietary patterns in depression and depressive symptoms were included. Results: We found 10 studies that matched our criteria. Most studies showed an inverse association between healthy dietary patterns, rich in fruits, vegetables, lean meats, nuts and whole grains, and with low intake of processed and sugary foods, and depression and depressive symptoms throughout an array of age groups, although some authors reported statistical significance only in women. While most studies were of cross-sectional design, making it difficult to infer causality, a randomized controlled trial presented similar results. Discussion: he association between dietary patterns and depression is now well-established, although the exact etiological pathways are still unknown. Dietary intervention, with the implementation of healthier dietary patterns, closer to the traditional ones, can play an important role in the prevention and adjunctive therapy of depression and depressive symptoms. Conclusion: More large-scale randomized clinical trials need to be conducted, in order to confirm the association between high-quality dietary patterns and lower risk of depression and depressive symptoms.

scholarly journals POS1121 DEMOGRAPHICS, COMORBIDITIES, AND RENAL FUNCTION OF UNCONTROLLED GOUT PATIENTS WHO RECEIVED PEGLOTICASE: FINDING FROM A LARGE US CLAIMS DATABASE

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 839.2-840
Author(s):  
C. Vesel ◽  
A. Morton ◽  
M. Francis-Sedlak ◽  
B. Lamoreaux
Keyword(s):  
Kidney Function ◽  
Real World ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Small Subset ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Claims Database ◽  
Medical Diagnoses ◽  
Ckd Stage ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact

Background:NHANES data indicate that approximately 9.2 million Americans have gout,1 with a small subset having uncontrolled disease.2 Pegloticase is a PEGylated recombinant uricase enzyme indicated for treating uncontrolled gout that markedly reduces serum uric acid levels (sUA)3 and resolves tophi in treatment responders.4 Despite pegloticase availability in the US for many years, real world demographics of pegloticase users in the treatment of uncontrolled gout have not been previously reported in a population-based cohort.Objectives:This study utilized a large US claims database to examine demographics and co-morbidities of uncontrolled gout patients treated with pegloticase. Kidney function before and after pegloticase treatment and concomitant therapy with immunomodulators were also examined.Methods:The TriNetX Diamond database includes de-identified data from 4.3 million US patients with gout (as of September 2019), including demographics, medical diagnoses, laboratory values, procedures (e.g. infusions, surgeries), and pharmacy data. Patients who had received ≥1 pegloticase infusion were included in these analyses. The number of infusions was evaluated for a subgroup of patients who were in the database ≥3 months before and ≥2 years after the first pegloticase infusion (i.e. first infusion prior to September 2017) to ensure only complete courses of therapy were captured. In this subpopulation, kidney function before and after pegloticase therapy was examined, along with the presence of immunomodulation prescriptions (methotrexate, mycophenolate mofetil, azathioprine, leflunomide) within 60 days prior to and 14 days after the first pegloticase infusion.Results:1494 patients treated with pegloticase were identified. Patients were 63.1 ± 14.0 years of age (range: 23–91), mostly male (82%), and white (76%). Mean sUA prior to pegloticase was 8.7 ± 2.4 mg/dL (n=50), indicating uncontrolled gout in the identified population. The most commonly reported comorbidities were chronic kidney disease (CKD, 48%), essential hypertension (71%), type 2 diabetes (39%), and cardiovascular disease (38%), similar to pegloticase pivotal Phase 3 trial populations. In patients with pre-therapy kidney function measures (n=134), pre-treatment eGFR averaged 61.2 ± 25.7 ml/min/1.73 m2, with 44% having Stage 3-5 CKD. In patients with complete therapy course capture and pre- and post-therapy eGFR measures (n=48), kidney function remained stable (change in eGFR: -2.9 ± 18.2 ml/min/1.73 m2) and CKD stage remained the same or improved in 81% of patients. In 791 patients with complete treatment course capture, patients had received 8.7 ± 13.8 infusions (median: 3, IQR: 2-10). Of these, 189 (24%) patients received only 1 pegloticase infusion and 173 (22%) received ≥12 infusions. As the data cut-off for this analysis pre-dated emerging data on the use of immunomodulation as co-therapy, only 19 of 791 (2%) patients received immunomodulation co-therapy with pegloticase.Conclusion:This relatively large group of patients with uncontrolled gout treated with pegloticase had similar patient characteristics of those studied in the phase 3 randomized clinical trials. Patients with uncontrolled gout are significantly burdened with systemic co-morbid diseases. The majority of patients had stable or improved kidney function following pegloticase treatment. As these results reflect patients initiating treatment prior to 2018, before co-treatment with immunomodulation was introduced, this cohort only included a small percentage of patients who were co-treated with an immunomodulator. Future studies using more current datasets are needed to evaluate real world outcomes in patients treated with pegloticase/immunomodulator co-therapy and to evaluate the impact of systemic co-morbid diseases.References:[1]Chen-Xu M, et al. Arthritis Rheumatol 2019 71:991-999.[2]Fels E, Sundy JS. Curr Opin Rheumatol 2008;20:198-202.[3]Sundy J, et al. JAMA 2011;306:711-720.[4]Mandell BF, et al. Arthritis Res Ther 2018;20:286.Disclosure of Interests:Claudia Vesel Shareholder of: Horizon Therapeutics plc, Employee of: Horizon Therapeutics plc, Allan Morton Speakers bureau: Sanofi, Amgen, and Horizon, Megan Francis-Sedlak Shareholder of: Horizon Therapeutics plc, Employee of: Horizon Therapeutics plc, Brian LaMoreaux Shareholder of: Horizon Therapeutics plc, Employee of: Horizon Therapeutics plc.

scholarly journals RADT-37. THE IMPACT OF POSTOPERATIVE RADIATION THERAPY (PORT) AND EXTENT OF SURGERY ON CLINICAL OUTCOMES OF ATYPICAL MENINGIOMA (AM): A META-ANALYSIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. ii189-ii189
Author(s):  
Philip Haddad ◽  
Furqan Akhtar ◽  
Kevin Gallagher
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Comparative Studies ◽  
English Language ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Subtotal Resection ◽  
Recurrence Rates ◽  
Postoperative Radiation Therapy ◽  
Extent Of Surgery ◽  
The Impact

Abstract BACKGROUND Although meningiomas are among the most prevalent types of brain tumors, AMs account for around 4% of all meningiomas. AMs tend to be more aggressive with relatively higher rates of recurrence and mortality. Gross total resection (GTR) has been the standard of care when possible. However, GTR itself is not always enough to prevent the recurrence of AMs. The role of PORT remains controversial in AM as the comparative studies to support its use have provided conflicting RESULTS: The purpose of this meta-analysis is to evaluate the impact of PORT on clinical outcomes according to the extent of resection in AMs. METHODS A review of the medical literature was conducted using online databases. Inclusion criteria consisted of AM diagnosis, English language, Simpson graded resections, and comparative studies reporting recurrence rates (RcR), Progression-Free Survival (PFS), and Overall Survival (OS) with hazard ratios (HR) or Kaplan-Meier curves. A meta-analysis was conducted using an inverse variance method with a random-effects model. RESULTS Twenty-two comparative studies with a total of 5,129 patients were included and analyzed. When GTR was attained, PORT was associated with improved RcR (HR =0.72, 95%CI:0.59-0.86) and PFS (HR=0.77, 95%CI:0.65-0.90), but not OS (HR=0.93, 95%CI:0.83-1.04). When subtotal resection (STR) was attained, PORT was associated with improved PFS (HR=0.35, 95%CI:0.26-0.48) as well as OS (HR=0.70, 95%CI:0.54-0.89). The extent of surgery also impacted AM outcomes as GTR demonstrated superior PFS (HR=0.45, 95%CI:0.31-0.65) and OS (HR=0.30, 95%CI:0.13-0.72). CONCLUSIONS This is the first meta-analysis to show that PORT is associated with PFS benefit in AMs with GTR and STR. Moreover, PORT significantly improved OS of AMs that underwent STR but had no impact on OS when GTR was achieved. In the absence of randomized clinical trials, this meta-analysis represents the most compelling data supporting the use of PORT in this patient population.

scholarly journals Common Treatment, Common Variant: Evolutionary Prediction of Functional Pharmacogenomic Variants

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Laura B. Scheinfeldt ◽  
Andrew Brangan ◽  
Dara M. Kusic ◽  
Sudhir Kumar ◽  
Neda Gharani
Keyword(s):  
In Silico ◽  
Drug Efficacy ◽  
Common Variant ◽  
Genomic Research ◽  
Whole Genome Sequencing Data ◽  
Mendelian Disease ◽  
Allele Frequency Distribution ◽  
Sequencing Data ◽  
Patient Race ◽  
The Impact

Pharmacogenomics holds the promise of personalized drug efficacy optimization and drug toxicity minimization. Much of the research conducted to date, however, suffers from an ascertainment bias towards European participants. Here, we leverage publicly available, whole genome sequencing data collected from global populations, evolutionary characteristics, and annotated protein features to construct a new in silico machine learning pharmacogenetic identification method called XGB-PGX. When applied to pharmacogenetic data, XGB-PGX outperformed all existing prediction methods and identified over 2000 new pharmacogenetic variants. While there are modest pharmacogenetic allele frequency distribution differences across global population samples, the most striking distinction is between the relatively rare putatively neutral pharmacogene variants and the relatively common established and newly predicted functional pharamacogenetic variants. Our findings therefore support a focus on individual patient pharmacogenetic testing rather than on clinical presumptions about patient race, ethnicity, or ancestral geographic residence. We further encourage more attention be given to the impact of common variation on drug response and propose a new ‘common treatment, common variant’ perspective for pharmacogenetic prediction that is distinct from the types of variation that underlie complex and Mendelian disease. XGB-PGX has identified many new pharmacovariants that are present across all global communities; however, communities that have been underrepresented in genomic research are likely to benefit the most from XGB-PGX’s in silico predictions.

Quantification of the impact of traffic incidents on speed reduction: A causal inference based approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 157 ◽  
pp. 106163
Author(s):  
Danni Cao ◽  
Jianjun Wu ◽  
Xianlei Dong ◽  
Huijun Sun ◽  
Xiaobo Qu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Traffic Incidents ◽  
Speed Reduction ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Working Memory, Fluid Reasoning, and Complex Problem Solving: Different Results Explained by the Brunswik Symmetry

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
André Kretzschmar ◽  
Stephan Nebe
Keyword(s):  
Working Memory ◽  
Problem Solving ◽  
Cognitive Abilities ◽  
Latent Variables ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Complex Problem Solving ◽  
Symmetry Principle ◽  
Fluid Reasoning ◽  
The Impact

In order to investigate the nature of complex problem solving (CPS) within the nomological network of cognitive abilities, few studies have simultantiously considered working memory and intelligence, and results are inconsistent. The Brunswik symmetry principle was recently discussed as a possible explanation for the inconsistent findings because the operationalizations differed greatly between the studies. Following this assumption, 16 different combinations of operationalizations of working memory and fluid reasoning were examined in the present study (N = 152). Based on structural equation modeling with single-indicator latent variables (i.e., corrected for measurement error), it was found that working memory incrementally explained CPS variance above and beyond fluid reasoning in only 2 of 16 conditions. However, according to the Brunswik symmetry principle, both conditions can be interpreted as an asymmetrical (unfair) comparison, in which working memory was artificially favored over fluid reasoning. We conclude that there is little evidence that working memory plays a unique role in solving complex problems independent of fluid reasoning. Furthermore, the impact of the Brunswik symmetry principle was clearly demonstrated as the explained variance in CPS varied between 4 and 31%, depending on which operationalizations of working memory and fluid reasoning were considered. We argue that future studies investigating the interplay of cognitive abilities will benefit if the Brunswik principle is taken into account.

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