Uncertainty in Geomechanical Modeling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Tatur ◽  
Anton Ocheretyanyy ◽  
Yuriy Petrakov ◽  
Alexey Sobolev
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Determination ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Source Information ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Production Wells

Abstract The active application of geomechanical modeling in the oil and gas industry began in the early 2000s. Geomechanics is used in all life cycles of the field-from exploration drilling to field development models, construction of production wells and monitoring of the development process. The success of geomechanical modeling directly depends on the quantity and quality of input information. In contrast to the geological and hydrodynamic models in geomechanics, there is still no common approach and algorithm for the quantitative determination of the error of the model. This paper presents an algorithm for determining the 1D error of a geomechanical model, taking into account the measurement errors of the devices and the correlation dependencies used. This is the first step towards the formation of a unified approach to the quantitative determination of the error of 1D and 3D geomechanical models and the construction of uncertainty corridors. In this paper, we propose a mechanism for estimating the error of correlation dependencies, which includes not only the error of the measuring equipment, but also the resulting convergence of the dependence and the rate of growth or decline of this convergence. The confidence parameter is used to estimate the contribution of a particular dimension to the calculations. The sensitivity of the resulting error to the quality of the source information is analyzed. In the application of this technique, it is possible at the initial stage to make a conclusion about the quality of the simulation results and to take measures to improve the reliability of the calculations.

Subsurface-to-Economics Closing the Loop on Uncertainty Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galvin Shergill ◽  
Adrian Anton ◽  
Kwangwon Park
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Uncertainty Modeling ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Uncertainty Model

Abstract We are all aware that our future is uncertain. Although some aspects can be predicted with more certainty and others with less, essentially everything is uncertain. Uncertainty exists because of lack of data, lack of resources, and lack of understanding. We cannot measure everything, so there are always unknowns. Even measurements include measurement errors. Also, we do not always have enough resources to analyze the data obtained. In addition, we do not have a full understanding of how the world, or the universe, works (Park 2011). Every day we find ourselves in situations where we must make many decisions, big or small. We tend to make the decisions based on a prediction, despite knowing that it is uncertain. For instance, imagine how many decisions are made by people every day based on the probability of it raining tomorrow (i.e., based on the weather forecast). To have a good basis for making a decision, it is of critical importance to correctly model the uncertainty in the forecast. In the oil and gas industry, uncertainties are large and complex. Oil and gas fields have been developed and operated despite tremendous uncertainty in a variety of areas, including undiscovered media and unpredictable fluid in the subsurface, wells, unexpected facility and equipment costs, and economic, political, international, environmental, and many other risks. Another important aspect of uncertainty modeling is the feasibility of verifying the uncertainty model with the actual results. For example, in the weather forecast it was announced that the probability of raining the next day was 20%. And the next day it rained. Do we say the forecast was wrong? Can we say the forecast was right? In order to make sure the uncertainty model is correct; we should strictly verify all the assumptions and follow the mathematically, statistically, proven-to-be-correct methodology to model the uncertainty (Caers et al. 2010; Caers 2011). In this paper, we show an effective, rigorous method of modeling uncertainty in the expected performance of potential field development scenarios in the oil and gas field development planning given uncertainties in various domains from subsurface to economics. The application of this method is enabled by using technology as described in a later section.

Metrology and Standardization in Geomechanical Modeling - A Quantitative Assessment of Uncertainty Window Based on Calibration Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Tatur ◽  
Yuri Petrakov ◽  
Alexey Sobolev
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Assessment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
System Modeling ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Actual Data ◽  
Calibration Data ◽  
Geomechanical Model ◽  
Gas Industry

Abstract Geomechanical modeling is an integral part of the oil and gas industry and is used in all life cycles of the field - monitoring and improving the efficiency of well construction, choosing a completion system, modeling hydraulic fracturing processes, modeling development processes taking into account changes in the stress state of the reservoir, taking into account the fault, salt tectonics, control over the development of the reservoir, control of subsidence of the earth's surface. The success of geomechanical modeling directly depends on the quantity and quality of input data. In contrast to the geological and hydrodynamic models, in geomechanics there is still no unified approach and algorithm for quantifying the model error. The quality of the geomechanical model is defined as "satisfactory" / "not satisfactory" and "confirmed by actual data" / "not confirmed by actual data". In a series of articles on "Metrological support of a geomechanical model", the authors show an algorithm for a quantitative assessment of the error of a geomechanical model. The proposed algorithm takes into account the measurement error (in the well and in the laboratory), the quality of logging data, direct measurements or reconstructed measurements, the tightness of correlations (both for the results of core studies and for the reconstruction of missing logging data), the calculation of the uncertainty taking into account the calibration information. This paper describes a generalized algorithm for quantifying the error of a geomechanical model, presented in previous articles, and provides a method for quantifying calculate the uncertainty, taking into account calibration information, such as measurements of horizontal stresses, core studies in laboratory conditions.

ABOUT NECESSITY OF MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE BUSINESS PROCESS OF COST ESTIMATE CALCULATIONS IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF OIL AND GAS FACILITIES

2017 ◽  
pp. 139-145
Author(s):  
R. I. Hamidullin ◽  
L. B. Senkevich
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Quality Assessment ◽  
Business Process ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Construction Organizations ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Cost Of Construction

A study of the quality of the development of estimate documentation on the cost of construction at all stages of the implementation of large projects in the oil and gas industry is conducted. The main problems that arise in construction organizations are indicated. The analysis of the choice of the perfect methodology of mathematical modeling of the investigated business process for improving the activity of budget calculations, conducting quality assessment of estimates and criteria for automation of design estimates is performed.

scholarly journals Empirical analysis of inbound open innovation and SMEs performance: Evidence from oil and gas industry

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusuf O. Akinwale
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Open Innovation ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Petroleum Sector ◽  
External Actors ◽  
The Relationship

Background: This article contributes to existing literature by examining the relationship between inbound open innovation and firms’ financial performance in the Nigerian oil and gas industry. Aim: This article seeks to identify the factors of inbound open innovation and whether these factors influence the financial performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Nigerian oil and gas industry. Setting: This article examines 150 indigenous oil and gas SMEs in the upstream subsector of the Nigerian petroleum sector through a survey, using a questionnaire, conducted in 2015. Methods: The study applied the structural equation modelling (SEM) method. This method is used to test the relationships between the factors and to calculate the measurement errors in the hypotheses formulated. Results: The results show that technology scouting, vertical technology collaboration (VTC) and horizontal technology collaboration (HTC) positively and significantly contribute to inbound open innovation, which are thus significant in influencing the financial performance of SMEs. The size of technical staff and research and development (R&D) fund allocations also have a positive and significant correlation with the SMEs’ financial performance. Meanwhile, the age of SMEs is negative and not significant in influencing financial performance. Conclusion: The results suggest that inbound open innovation through scouting, HTC and VTC should therefore be encouraged among SMEs to boost their internal capabilities, which have hitherto enhanced their financial performance. The management members of each SME should continually consider collaboration with the external actors because they cannot singularly possess all the innovative skills required in the industry. Also, each firm should commit itself to allocate more funds to R&D and at the same time should hire those who have relevant production skills and train the existing ones in their firms.

Challenges in Hydrate Plug Prevention in Pipelines Seen Over the Lifetime of a Field

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Casper Hadsbjerg ◽  
Kristian Krejbjerg
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Formation Rate ◽  
Hydrate Formation ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
High Water ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Hydrate Plug ◽  
Subsea Pipelines

When the oil and gas industry explores subsea resources in remote areas and at high water depths, it is important to have advanced simulation tools available in order to assess the risks associated with these expensive projects. A major issue is whether hydrates will form when the hydrocarbons are transported to shore in subsea pipelines, since the formation of a hydrate plug might shut down a pipeline for an extended period of time, leading to severe losses. The industry practices a conservative approach to hydrate plug prevention, which is the addition of inhibitors to ensure that hydrates cannot form under pipeline pressure and temperature conditions. The addition of inhibitors to subsea pipelines is environmentally unfriendly and also a very costly procedure. Recent efforts has therefore focused on developing models for the hydrate formation rate (hydrate kinetics models), which can help determine how fast hydrates might form a plug in a pipeline, and whether the amount of inhibitor can be reduced without increasing the risk of hydrate plug formation. The main variables determining whether hydrate plugs form in a pipeline are: 1) the ratio of hydrocarbons to water, 2) the composition of the hydrocarbons, 3) the flowrates/flow regimes in the pipeline, 4) the amount of inhibitor in the system. Over the lifetime of a field, all 4 variables will change, and so will the challenge of hydrate plug prevention. This paper will examine the prevention of hydrate plugs in a pipeline, seen from a hydrate kinetics point of view. Different scenarios that can occur over the lifetime of a field will be investigated. Exemplified through a subsea field development, a pipeline simulator that considers hydrate formation in a pipeline is used to carry out a study to shed light on the most important issues to consider as conditions change. The information gained from this study can be used to cut down on inhibitor dosage, or possibly completely remove the need for inhibitor.

scholarly journals An Algorithm of Management Decision-Making Regarding the Feasibility of Investing in Geological Studies of Forecasted Hydrocarbon Resources

Resources ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey Cherepovitsyn ◽  
Dmitry Metkin ◽  
Alexander Gladilin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Material Base ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Field Development

Currently, under the conditions of increasing depletion of hydrocarbon reserves in Russia, it is necessary to consider the resource potential of poorly-researched oil and gas objects as a factor for ensuring the sustainable development of the oil and gas complex, in the context of the concept formation of rational subsoil utilization and a circular economy. The methodology of this study is based on a clear sequence of geological and economic studies of poorly-researched oil and gas objects, including four stages, such as analysis of the raw material base, assessment of the raw material potential, determination of technological development parameters, and economic evaluation. The methods of the probabilistic estimation of oil resources of the forecasted objects with regard to geological risk are outlined. Software packages “EVA—Risk Analysis” and “EVA—Economic Evaluation of Oil and Gas Field Development Projects” were used for estimation. The result of the study is the determination of the geological and economic efficiency of the development of nine hydrocarbon objects with the determination of the order of their further geological exploration, and introduction into industrial development on the example of the poorly-researched region of the Timan-Pechora oil and gas province located in the Arctic zone.

scholarly journals О ФАКТОРАХ ЭФФЕКТИВНОЙ РЕАЛИЗАЦИИ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННЫХ ПРОЕКТОВ

World Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (5(45)) ◽  
pp. 16-21
Author(s):  
Мирхамидова Д. Н. ◽  
Атаханова Ш. С. ◽  
Соатов Ф. Й.
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Investment Projects

In article researches on establishment of influence of geological and technology factors on efficiency of investment projects, determination of risks at implementation of investment projects in the oil and gas industry and feature and factors for successful implementation of investment projects are considered.

scholarly journals EVOLUTION OF THE QUALITY OF HIGH-PRESSURE VALVES DURING THE PERIOD OF THEIR INTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT

2021 ◽  
Vol 05 (01) ◽  
pp. 04-10
Author(s):  
Sabir Babaev ◽  
Ibrahim Habibov ◽  
Zohra Abiyeva
Keyword(s):  
High Pressure ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Machine Building ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Performance Criteria ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Evolution Of Technology ◽  
Intensive Development

Prospects for the further development of the oil and gas industry are mainly associated with the development and commissioning of high-rate fields. In this regard, the production of more economical and durable equipment by machine-building enterprises, an increase in the level of its reliability and competitiveness, as well as further improvement of technological production processes, is of paramount importance. The evolution of technology in a broad sense is a representation of changes in designs, manufacturing technology, their direction and patterns. In this case, a certain state of any class of TC is considered as a result of long-term changes in its previous state; transition from existing and applied in practice vehicles to new models that differ from previous designs. These transitions, as a rule, are associated with the improvement of any performance criteria or quality indicators of the vehicle and are progressive in nature. The work is devoted to the study of the evolution of the quality of high-pressure valves during the period of their intensive development. Keywords: technical system, evolution of technology, high-pressure valves, shut-off devices, gate.

scholarly journals DETERMINATION OF THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE PROJECT PORTFOLIO OF THE OIL AND GAS SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY TO EXTERNAL FACTORS

2021 ◽  
pp. 32-40
Author(s):  
L.S. Leontieva ◽  
◽  
E.B. Makarova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Project Portfolio ◽  
Project Portfolio Management ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

The oil and gas sector of the economy in many states remains the main source of foreign exchange and tax revenues to the budget. Moreover, its share, for example, in Russia, accounts for about 12 % of all industrial production. However, this sector, as the practice of world oil prices shows, is experiencing not only a rise, but also a decline. Consequently, the problem of forming a balanced portfolio of oil and gas assets is an object of close attention on the part of national oil and gas companies. The issues of choosing the optimal combination of oil and gas assets in the portfolio are no less urgent, especially among the tasks that all oil and gas companies face, both in Russia and abroad. An investment portfolio or a portfolio of oil and gas assets, which includes new projects for the commissioning of fields, as well as measures to enhance oil recovery, and exploration are objects of real investment. The high volatility of the oil and gas industry is influenced by various factors, including: macroeconomic, innovation risks and a number of others. These circumstances stimulate the sector to increase the resilience of its project portfolios in order to respond flexibly to changes. In an increasingly challenging and uncertain environment, oil and gas companies around the world face constant pressures as difficult strategic decisions and building long-term plans lead to a sustainable portfolio. In order to achieve their goals and maximize profitability, companies should apply certain algorithms in their practice. The article substantiates the role and importance of project portfolio management in achieving the goals of the state and companies in the oil and gas sector. The main goal of the article is to build an algorithm that is aimed both at determining the stability of the portfolio and the ability to flexibly respond to changes in the environment. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the determination of an algorithm for assessing the sustainability of a portfolio of projects of oil and gas companies. Application of this algorithm will allow oil and gas companies to take into account the influence of external factors. The research methodology is based on such methods as analysis of internal regulations and reporting of companies for project portfolio management, risk analysis, project ranking; grouping and classification method.

Utilizing Pseudo Well Connections to Simulate Multi-Stage Hydraulic Fracturing - Example Based On the Study of a Tight Gas Asset

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aamir Lokhandwala ◽  
Vaibhav Joshi ◽  
Ankit Dutt
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Development Plan ◽  
Hydraulic Fractures ◽  
Tight Gas ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Fracture Modeling

Abstract Hydraulic fracturing is a widespread well stimulation treatment in the oil and gas industry. It is particularly prevalent in shale gas fields, where virtually all production can be attributed to the practice of fracturing. It is also used in the context of tight oil and gas reservoirs, for example in deep-water scenarios where the cost of drilling and completion is very high; well productivity, which is dictated by hydraulic fractures, is vital. The correct modeling in reservoir simulation can be critical in such settings because hydraulic fracturing can dramatically change the flow dynamics of a reservoir. What presents a challenge in flow simulation due to hydraulic fractures is that they introduce effects that operate on a different length and time scale than the usual dynamics of a reservoir. Capturing these effects and utilizing them to advantage can be critical for any operator in context of a field development plan for any unconventional or tight field. This paper focuses on a study that was undertaken to compare different methods of simulating hydraulic fractures to formulate a field development plan for a tight gas field. To maintaing the confidentiality of data and to showcase only the technical aspect of the workflow, we will refer to the asset as Field A in subsequent sections of this paper. Field A is a low permeability (0.01md-0.1md), tight (8% to 12% porosity) gas-condensate (API ~51deg and CGR~65 stb/mmscf) reservoir at ~3000m depth. Being structurally complex, it has a large number of erosional features and pinch-outs. The study involved comparing analytical fracture modeling, explicit modeling using local grid refinements, tartan gridding, pseudo-well connection approach and full-field unconventional fracture modeling. The result of the study was to use, for the first time for Field A, a system of generating pseudo well connections to simulate hydraulic fractures. The approach was found to be efficient both terms of replicating field data for a 10 year period while drastically reducing simulation runtime for the subsequent 10 year-period too. It helped the subsurface team to test multiple scenarios in a limited time-frame leading to improved project management.

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