scholarly journals A model for predicting carotid instability plaque in high risk group of stroke individuals

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junxiong Yin ◽  
Chuanyong Yu ◽  
Hongxing Liu ◽  
Mingyang Du ◽  
Feng Sun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Doppler Ultrasound ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
Auc Value ◽  
Validation Set

Abstract Objective: To establish a predictive model of carotid vulnerable plaque through systematic screening of high-risk population for stroke.Patients and methods: All community residents who participated in the screening of stroke high-risk population by the China National Stroke Screening and Prevention Project (CNSSPP). A total of 19 risk factors were analyzed. Individuals were randomly divided into Derivation Set group and Validation Set group. According to carotid ultrasonography, the derivation set group patients were divided into instability plaque group and non-instability plaque group. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression were taken for risk factors. A predictive model scoring system were established by the coefficient. The AUC value of both derivation and validation set group were used to verify the effectiveness of the model.Results: A total of 2841 high-risk stroke patients were enrolled in this study, 266 (9.4%) patients were found instability plaque. According to the results of Doppler ultrasound, Derivation Set group were divided into instability plaque group (174 cases) and non-instability plaque group (1720 cases). The independent risk factors for carotid instability plaque were: male (OR 1.966, 95%CI 1.406-2.749)，older age (50-59, OR 6.012, 95%CI 1.410-25.629; 60-69, OR 13.915, 95%CI 3.381-57.267;≥70, OR 31.267, 95%CI 7.472-130.83) , married(OR 1.780, 95%CI 1.186-2.672)，LDL-c(OR 2.015, 95%CI 1.443-2.814), and HDL-C(OR 2.130, 95%CI 1.360-3.338). A predictive scoring system was created, range 0-10. The cut-off value of prediction model score is 6.5. The AUC value of derivation and validation set group were 0.738 and 0.737.Conclusion：For a high risk group of stroke individual, We provide a model that could distinguishing those who have a high probability of having carotid instability plaque. When resident’s predictive model score exceeds 6.5, the incidence of carotid instability plaque is high, carotid artery Doppler ultrasound would be checked immediately. This model can be helpful in the primary prevention of stroke.

scholarly journals A model for predicting carotid instability plaque in high risk group of stroke individuals

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junxiong Yin ◽  
Chuanyong Yu ◽  
Hongxing Liu ◽  
Mingyang Du ◽  
Feng Sun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Doppler Ultrasound ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
Auc Value ◽  
Validation Set

Abstract Background: Atherosclerosis is the main risk factor of cerebral vascular disease. Previous studies published several predictive models of asymptomatic carotid stenosis , yet they were ignored that people with lower levels of stenosis (＜50% or carotid instability plaque) who may benefit from early risk reducing medications, such as statins, antiplatelet drugs. Thus, this study determined to establish a predictive model of carotid vulnerable plaque through systematic screening of high-risk population for stroke. Methods: All community residents who participated in the screening of stroke high-risk population by the China National Stroke Screening and Prevention Project(CNSSPP). A total of 19 risk factors were analyzed. Individuals were randomly divided into Derivation-Set group and Validation-Set group. According to carotid ultrasonography, the derivation set group patients were divided into instability plaque group and non-instability plaque group. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression were taken for risk factors. A predictive model scoring system were established by the coefficient. The Area under curve (AUC) value of both derivation and validation set group were used to verify the effectiveness of the model. Results: A total of 2841 high risk stroke patients were enrolled in this study, 266(9.4%) patients were found instability plaque. According to the results of Doppler ultrasound, Derivation Set group were divided into instability plaque group (174 cases) and non-instability plaque group (1720 cases). The independent risk factors for carotid instability plaque were: male (OR 1.966, 95%CI 1.406-2.749)，older age (50-59, OR 6.012, 95%CI 1.410-25.629; 60-69, OR 13.915, 95%CI 3.381-57.267;≥70, OR 31.267, 95%CI 7.472-130.83) , married(OR 1.780, 95%CI 1.186-2.672)，LDL-c(OR 2.015, 95%CI 1.443-2.814), and HDL-C(OR 2.130, 95%CI 1.360-3.338). A predictive scoring system was created, range 0-10. The cut-off value of prediction model score is 6.5. The AUC value of derivation and validation set group were 0.738 and 0.737. Conclusions:For a high risk group of stroke individual, We provide a model that could distinguishing those who have a high probability of having carotid instability plaque. When resident’s predictive model score exceeds 6.5, the incidence of carotid instability plaque is high, carotid artery Doppler ultrasound would be checked immediately. This model can be helpful in the primary prevention of stroke.

Chemotherapy-associated thrombosis in cancer outpatients: Risk factors and decision making of a prophylactic approach.

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e20647-e20647
Author(s):  
Martina Torchio ◽  
Benvenuto Franceschetti ◽  
Carla Cavali ◽  
Sonia Zanirato ◽  
Angelo Olgiati ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Venous Catheter ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Factors Analysis ◽  
Negative Predictor

e20647 Background: Venous thromboembolism (VTE), is a negative predictor of survival in pts with advanced cancer. International guidelines don’t recommend routine prophlaxis but suggest to consider pts, undergoing chemotherapy (CT), with high risk of VTE. Many clinical risk factors for cancer-associated VTE have been evaluated in a 5 parameter-based (body mass index, platelet and leucocyte counts, hemoglobin value and tumor site) scoring system, the Khorana score, utilized to indicate a prophylactic approach. We prospectively applied this score in cancer outpts beginning CT and an implementation based on 6 addictional factors analysis (sex, age, central venous catheter, CT-agents, antiangiogenetic drugs, erithropoiesis stimulating agent) to evaluate their impact in pts assignment into risk groups. Methods: We studied adult pts, followed at our Department from August 2011 to December 2012, with advanced cancers (breast, NSCLC, colorectal, pancreatic/gastric, urogenital, LNH, Hodgkin's disease, HD, and MM), receiving a first or second line standard CT. We stratified pts into three risk groups (score 0= low; score 1-2=intermediate; score 3-4-5=high) considering both the Khorana scoring system and its implementation. Results: We analyzed 169 pts (103F/66M, median age 62.3, range 35-80 yrs), pt population included: 38 breast, 32 colorectal, 31 LNH, HD and MM, 27 urogenital, 22 NSCLC and 19 pancreatic/gastric. With the Khorana score 49 pts were assigned to the low risk, 87 pts to the intermediate risk (57 with score=1, 28 with score=2), 16 pts (9.4%) to the high risk group (9 with score=3, 4 with score=4, 3 with score=5). When we considered 11 parameters 37 pts (21.8%) were assigned to the high risk group. Conclusions: A more comprehensive quantification of VTE risk, also considering new independent factors, is mandatory for a correct decision making of an antithrombotic-prophylactic approach.

scholarly journals Comparative risk assessment for the development of cardiovascular diseases in the Hungarian general and Roma population

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Piko ◽  
Zsigmond Kosa ◽  
Janos Sandor ◽  
Roza Adany
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Roma Population

AbstractCardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the number one cause of death globally, and the early identification of high risk is crucial to prevent the disease and to reduce healthcare costs. Short life expectancy and increased mortality among the Roma are generally accepted (although not indeed proven by mortality analyses) which can be partially explained by the high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) among them. This study aims to elaborate on the prevalence of the most important CVD risk factors, assess the estimation of a 10-year risk of development of fatal and nonfatal CVDs based on the most used risk assessment scoring models, and to compare the Hungarian general (HG) and Roma (HR) populations. In 2018 a complex health survey was accomplished on the HG (n = 380) and HR (n = 347) populations. The prevalence of CVRS was defined and 10-year cardiovascular risk was estimated for both study populations using the following systems: Framingham Risk Score for hard coronary heart disease (FRSCHD) and for cardiovascular disease (FRSCVD), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) and Revised Pooled Cohort Equations (RPCE). After the risk scores had been calculated, the populations were divided into risk categories and all subjects were classified. For all CVD risk estimation scores, the average of the estimated risk was higher among Roma compared to the HG independently of the gender. The proportion of high-risk group in the Hungarian Roma males population was on average 1.5–3 times higher than in the general one. Among Roma females, the average risk value was higher than in the HG one. The proportion of high-risk group in the Hungarian Roma females population was on average 2–3 times higher compared to the distribution of females in the general population. Our results show that both genders in the Hungarian Roma population have a significantly higher risk for a 10-year development of cardiovascular diseases and dying from them compared to the HG one. Therefore, cardiovascular interventions should be focusing not only on reducing smoking among Roma but on improving health literacy and service provision regarding prevention, early recognition, and treatment of lipid disorders and diabetes among them.

scholarly journals A Novel Ferroptosis-Related Gene Signature Robustly Predicts Clinical Prognosis And Tumor Immunity in Patients With Kidney Renal Clear Cell Carcinoma

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Song ◽  
Weiting Kang ◽  
Qi Zhang
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Clear Cell ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Gene Signature ◽  
Renal Clear Cell Carcinoma ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Related Gene ◽  
Clinical Prognosis ◽  
Validation Set

Abstract Objective: This study aimed to construct a ferroptosis-related gene signature to predict clinical prognosis and tumor immunity in patients with kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC).Methods: The mRNA expression profiles and corresponding clinical data of KIRC patients were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), which were randomly divided into training (398 patients) and validation set (132 patients). The iron death related (IDR) prediction model was constructed based on training set and 60 ferroptosis-related genes from previous literatures, followed by prognostic performance evaluation and verification using the validation set. Moreover, functional enrichment, immune cell infiltration, metagene clusters correlation, and TIDE scoring analyses were performed. Results: In total, 23 ferroptosis-related genes were significantly associated with overall survival (OS). The IDR prediction model (a 10-gene signature) was then constructed to stratify patients into two risk groups. The OS of KIRC patients with high-risk scores was significantly shorter than those with low-risk scores. Moreover, the risk score was confirmed as an independent prognostic predictor for OS. The positive and negative correlated genes with this model were significantly enriched in p53 signaling pathway, and cGMP-PKG signaling pathway. The patients in the high-risk group had higher ratios of plasma cells, T cells CD8, and T cells regulatory Tregs. Furthermore, IgG, HCK, LCK, and Interferson metagenes were significantly correlated with risk score. By TIDE score analysis, patients in the high-risk group could benefit from immunotherapy.Conclusions: The identified ferroptosis-related gene signature is significantly correlated with clinical prognosis and immune immunity in KIRC patients.

scholarly journals Comparative Analysis of Atherosclerosis Risk Factors in the Staff of the Tbilisi (Georgia) Cleaning Service

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Murman Kantaria ◽  
Murman Kantaria ◽  
Pavle Machavariani ◽  
Giorgi Ormotsadze ◽  
Giorgi Ormotsadze ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Diagnostic Value ◽  
Redox Status ◽  
Pathological Process ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Group I

Objective Search of pathogenetic mechanisms and risk factors of atherosclerosis in the employees of the cleaning service in Tbilisi. Materials and Methods As a result of a preliminary survey and examination of 200 employes of Tbilisi cleaning service aged 25-45 years (2014-2016), 22 patients with angina, hypercholesterolemia, intimae-media thickness > 0.65 mm, were selected into I group, and 23 individuals without these disorders into II group. In the blood plasma of the selected patients the intensity of oxidative metabolism parameters, TAA and MDA were determined. The variance and correlation analysis (АNOVA) was used for conducting the comparative analysis of the levels of studied parameters. Results In the combined group (I+II) there are several reliable correlations between the Age -TCol, Age-MDA, BMI-Tg, BMI-MDA, LDLChol-HDLChol, LDLChol–TChol, HDLChol-TChol, LDLChol-MDA, LDLChol-TAA. no correlation between these parameters in individual groups (I and II) was found. That indicates that we have an imaginary correlation related to the large intergroup difference between the average values of the group indicators, that is the values of various indicators change during the development of the pathological process, but there is no causal relationship between these alterations. The reliable TAA-MDA correlation in the combined group (I+II) is related to the high anticorrelation between these parameters and the significantly higher average value of TAA in the low-risk group (II) in comparison to the high-risk group (I). Conclusion The results analysis indicates both the diagnostic value of redox status indicators and their leading role in the atherogenesis processes. In populations with a high risk of atherosclerosis, monitoring of serum TAA is recommended.

A risk-factor analysis of medical litigation judgments related to fall injuries in Korea

2017 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-24
Author(s):  
Insook Kim ◽  
Seonae Won ◽  
Mijin Lee ◽  
Won Lee
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Fall Prevention ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Past History ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Fall Injuries

The aim of this study was to find out the risk factors through analysis of seven medical malpractice judgments related to fall injuries. The risk factors were analysed by using the framework that approaches falls from a systems perspective and comprised people, organisational or environmental factors, with each factor being comprised of subfactors. The risk factors found in each of the seven judgments were aggregated into one framework. The risk factors related to patients (i.e. the people factor) were age, pain, related disease, activities and functional status, urination state, cognitive function impairment, past history of fall, blood transfusion, sleep endoscopy state and uncooperative attitude. The risk factors related to the medical staff and caregivers (i.e. people factor) were observation negligence, no fall prevention activities and negligence in managing high-risk group for fall. Organisational risk factors were a lack of workforce, a lack of training, neglecting the management of the high-risk group, neglecting the management of caregivers and the absence of a fall prevention procedure. Regarding the environment, the risk factors were found to be the emergency room, chairs without a backrest and the examination table. Identifying risk factors is essential for preventing fall accidents, since falls are preventable patient-safety incidents. Falls do not happen as a result of a single risk factor. Therefore, a systems approach is effective to identify risk factors, especially organisational and environmental factors.

scholarly journals Determination of Risk Factors for Venous Thromboembolism by an Adapted Caprini Scoring System in Surgical Patients

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bui My Hanh ◽  
Le Quang Cuong ◽  
Nguyen Truong Son ◽  
Duong Tuan Duc ◽  
Tran Tien Hung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Surgical Patients ◽  
Risk Scoring

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a frequent preventable complication among surgical patients. Precise risk assessment is a necessary step for providing appropriate thromboprophylaxis and reducing mortality as well as morbidity caused by VTE. We carried out this work to define the rate of VTE postoperatively, following a Caprini score, and to determine VTE risk factors through a modified Caprini risk scoring system. This multicenter, observational, cohort study involved 2,790,027 patients who underwent surgery in four Vietnamese hospitals from 01/2017 to 12/2018. All patients who were evaluated before surgery by using a Caprini risk assessment model (RAM) and monitored within 90 days after surgery. The endpoint of the study was ultrasound-confirmed VTE. Our data showed that the 90-day postoperative VTE was found in 3068 patients. Most of VTE (46.97%) cases were found in the highest risk group (Caprini score > 5). A total of 37.19% were observed in the high risk group, while the rest (15.84%) were from low to moderate risk groups. The likelihood of occurring VTE was heightened 2.83 times for patients with a Caprini score of 3–4, 4.83 times for a Caprini score of 5–6, 8.84 times for a score of 7–8, and 11.42 times for a score of >8, comparing to ones with a score of 0 to 2 (all p values < 0.05). Thus, the frequency of postoperative VTE rises substantially, according to the advanced Caprini score. Further categorizing patients among the highest risk group need delivering more appropriate thromboprophylaxis.

Stem Cell Transplantation in Elderly Patients with Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) in First Complete Remission (CR1).

Blood ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 112 (11) ◽  
pp. 1966-1966
Author(s):  
Renate Arnold ◽  
Dietrich Beelen ◽  
Martin Bornhaeuser ◽  
Donald Bunjes ◽  
Juergen Finke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Stem Cell ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Unrelated Donor ◽  
Matched Unrelated Donor ◽  
Conditioning Regimens ◽  
Very High

Abstract In the German Multicenter ALL studies (GMALL) patients aged &gt;55 years with high risk (B-lineage ALL with WBC at diagnosis &gt;30000, late CR, t (4; 11), complex aberrant karyotype or prae-T or mature T-ALL) or very high risk (Ph+/BCR-ABL+) ALL are increasingly candidates for allogeneic stem cell transplantation (allogeneic SCT with a HLA identical sibling donor, MRD or a matched unrelated donor, MUD) or autologous SCT. Here, we report on 31 elderly patients transplanted within the GMALL studies 06/99 and 07/03. Median age of the patients was 61 years (56–65). 22 patients belonged to the very high risk group (VHR), 8 patients to the high risk group (HR) and 1 patient from the standard risk group (SR) was transplanted because of detection of minimal residual disease.17/31 patients were transplanted from a matched unrelated donor, 9/31 patients from a HLA identical sibling donor and 5/31 patients underwent autologous SCT. Conditioning regimens for MRD SCT were myeloablative (MAC) in 6 patients (TBI 12 Gy and chemotherapy n=2, radioimmunotherapy + chemotherapy n=2, chemotherapy only n=2) and 3 patients received reduced intensity conditioning (RIC).Conditioning regimens for MUD SCT changed over time with an increasing number of RIC in the study 07/03. In total, 7/17 patients received MAC (TBI 12 Gy and chemotherapy n=5, chemotherapy only n=2) and 10/17 patients received RIC. Conditioning regimens in autologous SCT were myeloablative (MAC) in 5/5 patients. Results: After allogeneic MRD SCT 4/9 patients (44%) are alive in CCR (d+ 24, d+ 611, d+ 1721, d+ 2321), 3/9 patients died due to leukemia, 2/9 due to transplant related mortality (TRM). After allogeneic MUD SCT 8/17 patients (46%) are alive in CCR (from d+ 165 to d+ 2176). 1 further patient is alive after re- SCT for treatment of relapse. 7/17 patients died due to TRM and 1 patient died due to relapse. After autologous SCT 2/5 patients are alive in CCR (d+ 1703, d+ 1731), 3/5 died due to relapse. Risk factors for TRM: In allo SCT and MAC 8/13 patients died due to TRM in contrast to 1/13 patients with RIC. In auto SCT none of the patients died due to TRM. Risk factors for relapse: In allogeneic MRD SCT 3/9 patients died due to relapse and 2/17 patients relapsed after MUD SCT. Due to the small number of patients, no difference between MAC and RIC could be found. In autologous SCT 3/5 patients died due to relapse. In conclusion: The study shows that allo MRD but also MUD SCT is very effective in a selected population of elderly ALL patients. Since the survival of elderly patients with chemotherapy only is about 25%, more patients should be encouraged to have a MRD or MUD SCT.

A Simple Clinical Prognostic Scoring System for Newly Diagnosed Cytogenetically Normal Acute Myeloid Leukemia: a Retrospective Analysis on 530 Patients

Blood ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 116 (21) ◽  
pp. 4848-4848
Author(s):  
Michele Malagola ◽  
Crisitina Skert ◽  
Marco Vignetti ◽  
Alfonso Piciocchi ◽  
Giovanni Martinelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Myeloid Leukemia ◽  
Regression Coefficient ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Training Set ◽  
Secondary Aml ◽  
Induction Regimen ◽  
Validation Set

Abstract Abstract 4848 Objectives: the prognosis of patients with cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia (CN-AML) is highly variable and can be influenced by several clinical and biological variables. Nevertheless, some biological data may be conflicting and difficult to combine with the clinical ones. Methods: in order to propose a simple scoring system, we retrospectively analysed the clinical data of 337 patients newly diagnosed with CN-AMLs, aged less than 65 years, consecutively treated in eleven hematological Italian Centres from 1990 to 2005. Two hundred nineteen patients (65%) received a fludarabine-based induction regimen. All the other patients received a conventional induction regimen, including cytarabine, one anthracycline with or without etoposide. Univariate and multivariate analysis on event free survival and overall survival (EFS and OS) were performed. Patients addressed to allogeneic stem cell transplantation were censored at the time of transplant. Factors found to be significant in univariate analysis were tested in multivariate analysis. A numerical score was derived from the regression coefficients of each independent prognostic variable. The Prognostic Index Score (PIS) for each patient was then calculated by totalling up the score of each independent variable. Patients could thus be stratified into low-risk (score = 0–1), intermediate-risk (score = 2) and high-risk group (score grater than 3). The score obtained in this group of patients (training set) was then tested on 193 patients with newly diagnosed with CN-AMLs, aged less than 65 years, enrolled in the GIMEMA LAM99p clinical trial (validation set). Results: the clinical variables that were independent prognostic factors on EFS in the training set of patients were: age > 50 yrs (regression coefficient: 0.39, HR 1.5, score = 1), secondary AML (regression coefficient: 0.90, HR 2.5, score = 2) and WBC > 20 × 10^9/L (regression coefficient: 0.83, HR 2.3, score = 2). For what concerns the OS, the same variables showed the followings statistical data: age > 50 yrs (regression coefficient: 0.48, HR 1.6, score = 1), secondary AML (regression coefficient: 0.99, HR 2.7, score = 2) and WBC > 20 × 10^ 9/L (regression coefficient: 0.87, HR 2.4, score = 2). In the training set of patients, the median EFS was 22, 12 and 8 months in the low, intermediate and high-risk group (p<0.0001). The median OS was not reached in the low-risk group and was 20 and 10 months in the intermediate and high-risk group (p<0.0001). In the validation set of patients, the median EFS was 66, 16 and 3 months in the low, intermediate and high-risk group (p<0.0001). The median OS was 66, 16 and 4 months in the low, intermediate and high-risk group (p<0.0001). Conclusions: this simple and reproducible prognostic score may be useful for clinical-decision making in newly diagnosed patients with CN-AMLs, aged less than 65 yrs. Moreover, it can be clinically useful when the molecular prognostic markers are lacking (e.g. in emerging laboratories of some developing countries) or give contradictory results. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Validation of a genomic-clinical classifier model for predicting clinical recurrence of patients with localized prostate cancer in a high-risk population.

2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (5_suppl) ◽  
pp. 175-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert B. Jenkins ◽  
Eric J Bergstralh ◽  
Elai Davicioni ◽  
R. Jeffrey Karnes ◽  
Karla V. Ballman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Radical Prostatectomy ◽  
Gleason Score ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
Clinical Recurrence ◽  
Clinical Variables ◽  
Subset Analysis

175 Background: The efficient delivery of adjuvant and salvage therapy after radical prostatectomy in patients with prostate cancer is hampered by a lack of biomarkers to assess the risk of clinically significant recurrence and progression. Methods: Mayo Clinic Radical Prostatectomy Registry (RP) patient specimens were selected from a case-control cohort with 14 years median follow-up for training and initial validation of an expression biomarker genomic classifier (GC). An independent, blinded case-cohort study of high-risk RP subjects was used to validate GC, comparing the performance of GC to a multivariate logistic regression clinical model (CM) and GC combined with clinical variables (genomic-clinical classifier, GCC) for predicting clinical recurrence (defined as positive bone or CT scan within 5 years after biochemical recurrence). The concordance index (c-index) and Cox model were used to evaluate discrimination and estimate the risk of clinical recurrence. Results: In the training subset (n=359), both GC and GCC had a c-index of 0.90 whereas CM had a c-index of 0.76. In the internal validation set (n=186), GC and GCC had a c-index of 0.76 and 0.75, while CM had a c-index of 0.69. In an independent high-risk study (n=219), GC and GCC had a c-index of 0.77 and 0.76, while CM had a c-index of 0.68. In subset analysis of Gleason score 7 patients within the high-risk group, GC and GCC showed improved discrimination with c-index of 0.78 and 0.76, respectively compared to 0.70 for CM. In the high-risk group, the risk of recurrence by GC model score quartiles at 5 years after RP was estimated at 1%, 5%, 5% and 18%. Conclusions: The GC model shows improved performance over CM in the prediction of clinical recurrence in a high-risk cohort and in subset analysis of Gleason score 7 patients. The addition of clinical variables to the GC model did not significantly contribute to classifier performance in patients with high-risk features. We are further testing the performance of the GC and GCC models and their usefulness in guiding decision-making (e.g., for the adjuvant therapy setting) in additional studies of prostate cancer clinical risk groups.

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