Modeling the Cost-effectiveness of Esophageal Cancer Screening in China
Abstract Background : This study aimed to examine the cost-effectiveness of standard endoscopic screening with Lugol’s iodine staining for EC (esophageal cancer) screening in China. Methods : A Markov decision analysis model with eleven states was built. Individuals aged 40 to 69 years were classified into six age groups according to five-year intervals. Three different strategies were adopted for each cohort: (1) no screening; (2) endoscopic screening with Lugol’s iodine staining with annual follow-up for low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia; and (3) endoscopic screening with Lugol’s iodine staining without follow-up. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) indicated the effectiveness . The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used as the evaluating indicator. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of the model. Results : Screening with follow-up was the undominated strategy, which saved USD 10942.57 and USD 6611.73 for individuals aged 40-44 and 45-49 years, respectively, per QALY gained. For those aged 50-69 years, the nonscreening scenarios were undominated. Screening without follow-up were extended dominated strategies. Compared to screening strategies without follow-up, all the follow-up strategies were found to be cost effective, with the ICER increasing from 299.57 USD/QALY for individuals 40-44 years to 1617.72 USD/QALY for individuals 65-69 years. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis supported the results of the base case analysis. Conclusions : EC screening with follow-up targeting individuals aged 40-49 years was the most cost-effective strategy.