Climate Change Effects On Height-Diameter Allometric Relationship Vary With Tree Species And Size For Larch Plantations In Northern And Northeastern China

Abstract Background: Tree height-diameter relationship is very important in forest investigation, understanding forest ecosystem structure and estimating carbon storage. Climate change may modify the relationship. However, our understanding of the effects of climate change on height-diameter allometric growth is still limited at large scale.Methods: In this study, we explore how the climate change effects on height-diameter allometric relationship vary with tree species and size for larch plantations in northern and northeastern China. Based on the repeated measurement data of 535 plots from the 6th to 8th national forest inventory of China, climate-sensitive tree height-diameter models of Larix plantations in north and northeast China were developed by two-level nonlinear mixed effect (NLME) method. The final model was used to analyze the height-diameter relationship of different Larch species under RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2100.Results: The values of B(adjusted coefficient of determination), MAE(mean absolute error) and RMSE(root mean squared error) of the NLME models for calibration data were 0.92, 0.76m and 1.06m, respectively. The inclusion of climate variables MAT (Mean annual temperature), CMD (Hargreaves climatic moisture deficit) with random effects was able to increase a by 19.5% and reduce the AIC (Akaike’s information criterion), MAE and RMSE by 22.2%, 44.5% and 41.8%, respectively. The climate sensitivity was ranked as L. gmelinii > the unidentified species group > L. pincipis-rupprechtii > L. kaempferi > L. olgensis under RCP4.5, but L. gmelinii > L. pincipis-rupprechtii > the unidentified species group > L. olgensis > L. kaempferi under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Conclusion: According to the climate sensitivity, tree species could be classified as group I(L. gmelinii, L. pincipis-rupprechtii and the unidentified species group) with large c (from -4.77% to 18.17%) and group II (L. kaempferi and L. olgensis) with small k (from -6.37% to 9.4%).Large trees were more sensitive to climate change than small trees.

Download Full-text

Zuwachs und Klimasensitivität von Baumarten im Ökogramm der kollinen und submontanen Stufe

Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen ◽

10.3188/szf.2015.0380 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 166 (6) ◽

pp. 380-388 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Pascale Weber ◽

Caroline Heiri ◽

Mathieu Lévesque ◽

Tanja Sanders ◽

Volodymyr Trotsiuk ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Soil Properties ◽

Climate Sensitivity ◽

Tree Species ◽

Ring Width ◽

Basal Area ◽

Growth Potential ◽

Basal Area Increment ◽

Tree Ring Data ◽

Mean Sensitivity

Growth potential and climate sensitivity of tree species in the ecogram for the colline and submontane zone In forestry practice a large amount of empirical knowledge exists about the productivity of individual tree species in relation to site properties. However, so far, only few scientific studies have investigated the influence of soil properties on the growth potential of various tree species along gradients of soil water as well as nutrient availability. Thus, there is a research gap to estimate the productivity and climate sensitivity of tree species under climate change, especially regarding productive sites and forest ad-mixtures in the lower elevations. Using what we call a «growth ecogram», we demonstrate species- and site-specific patterns of mean annual basal area increment and mean sensitivity of ring width (strength of year-to-year variation) for Fagus sylvatica, Quercus spp., Fraxinus excelsior, Picea abies, Abies alba and Pinus sylvestris, based on tree-ring data from 508 (co-)dominant trees on 27 locations. For beech, annual basal area increment ( average 1957–2006) was significantly correlated with tree height of the dominant sampling trees and proved itself as a possible alternative for assessing site quality. The fact that dominant trees of the different tree species showed partly similar growth potential within the same ecotype indicates comparable growth limitation by site conditions. Mean sensitivity of ring width – a measure of climate sensitivity – had decreased for oak and ash, while it had increased in pine. Beech showed diverging reactions with increasing sensitivity at productive sites (as measured by the C:N ratio of the topsoil), suggesting an increasing limitation by climate at these sites. Hence, we derive an important role of soil properties in the response of forests to climate change at lower elevations, which should be taken into account when estimating future forest productivity.

Download Full-text

Nitrogen deposition and climate change effects on tree species composition and ecosystem services for a forest cohort

Ecological Monographs ◽

10.1002/ecm.1345 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 89 (2) ◽

pp. e01345 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

George Van Houtven ◽

Jennifer Phelan ◽

Christopher Clark ◽

Robert D. Sabo ◽

John Buckley ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Species Composition ◽

Nitrogen Deposition ◽

Tree Species ◽

Tree Species Composition ◽

Climate Change Effects

Download Full-text

Hotspots of change in major tree species under climate warming

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-22325 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Flurin Babst ◽

Richard L. Peters ◽

Rafel O. Wüest ◽

Margaret E.K. Evans ◽

Ulf Büntgen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Sensitivity ◽

Tree Growth ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Tree Species ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Species Distribution Models ◽

Sensitivity Index ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Bioclimatic Variables

Warming alters the variability and trajectories of tree growth around the world by intensifying or alleviating energy and water limitation. This insight from regional to global-scale research emphasizes the susceptibility of forest ecosystems and resources to climate change. However, globally-derived trends are not necessarily meaningful for local nature conservation or management considerations, if they lack specific information on present or prospective tree species. This is particularly the case towards the edge of their distribution, where shifts in growth trajectories may be imminent or already occurring.Importantly, the geographic and bioclimatic space (or &#8220;niche&#8221;) occupied by a tree species is not only constrained by climate, but often reflects biotic pressure such as competition for resources with other species. This aspect is underrepresented in many species distribution models that define the niche as a climatic envelope, which is then allowed to shift in response to changes in ambient conditions. Hence, distinguishing climatic from competitive niche boundaries becomes a central challenge to identifying areas where tree species are most susceptible to climate change.Here we employ a novel concept to characterize each position within a species&#8217; bioclimatic niche based on two criteria: a climate sensitivity index (CSI) and a habitat suitability index (HSI). The CSI is derived from step-wise multiple linear regression models that explain variability in annual radial tree growth as a function of monthly climate anomalies. The HSI is based on an ensemble of five species distribution models calculated from a combination of observed species occurrences and twenty-five bioclimatic variables. We calculated these two indices for 11 major tree species across the Northern Hemisphere.The combination of climate sensitivity and habitat suitability indicated hotspots of change, where tree growth is mainly limited by competition (low HSI and low CSI), as well as areas that are particularly sensitive to climate variability (low HSI and high CSI). In the former, we expect that forest management geared towards adjusting the competitive balance between several candidate species will be most effective under changing environmental conditions. In the latter areas, selecting particularly drought-tolerant accessions of a given species may reduce forest susceptibility to the predicted warming and drying.

Download Full-text

Reduction in browsing intensity may not compensate climate change effects on tree species composition in the Bavarian Forest National Park

Forest Ecology and Management ◽

10.1016/j.foreco.2014.05.030 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 328 ◽

pp. 179-192 ◽

Cited By ~ 47

Author(s):

Maxime Cailleret ◽

Marco Heurich ◽

Harald Bugmann

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Composition ◽

Tree Species ◽

National Park ◽

Tree Species Composition ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

Bavarian Forest

Download Full-text

Hydraulic diversity stabilizes productivity in a large-scale subtropical tree biodiversity experiment

10.1101/2021.01.06.425434 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Florian Schnabel ◽

Xiaojuan Liu ◽

Matthias Kunz ◽

Kathryn E. Barry ◽

Franca J. Bongers ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Richness ◽

Tree Species ◽

Structural Equation ◽

Large Scale ◽

Structural Equation Models ◽

Forest Productivity ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Climate Change Effects ◽

Tree Species Richness

AbstractExtreme climatic events threaten forests and their climate mitigation potential globally. Understanding the drivers promoting ecosystems stability is therefore considered crucial to mitigate adverse climate change effects on forests. Here, we use structural equation models to explain how tree species richness, asynchronous species dynamics and diversity in hydraulic traits affect the stability of forest productivity along an experimentally manipulated biodiversity gradient ranging from 1 to 24 tree species. Tree species richness improved stability by increasing species asynchrony. That is at higher species richness, inter-annual variation in productivity among tree species buffered the community against stress-related productivity declines. This effect was mediated by the diversity of species’ hydraulic traits in relation to drought tolerance and stomatal control, but not the community-weighted means of these traits. Our results demonstrate important mechanisms by which tree species richness stabilizes forest productivity, thus emphasizing the importance of hydraulically diverse, mixed-species forests to adapt to climate change.

Download Full-text

Spatial Pattern of Climate Change Effects on Lithuanian Forestry

Forests ◽

10.3390/f10090809 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (9) ◽

pp. 809 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Gintautas Mozgeris ◽

Vilis Brukas ◽

Nerijus Pivoriūnas ◽

Gintautas Činga ◽

Ekaterina Makrickienė ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Decision Support ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Forest Management ◽

Decision Support Systems ◽

Tree Species ◽

Support Systems ◽

Forest Growth ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Change Effects

Research Highlights: Validating modelling approach which combines global framework conditions in the form of climate and policy scenarios with the use of forest decision support system to assess climate change impacts on the sustainability of forest management. Background and Objectives: Forests and forestry have been confirmed to be sensitive to climate. On the other hand, human efforts to mitigate climate change influence forests and forest management. To facilitate the evaluation of future sustainability of forest management, decision support systems are applied. Our aims are to: (1) Adopt and validate decision support tool to incorporate climate change and its mitigation impacts on forest growth, global timber demands and prices for simulating future trends of forest ecosystem services in Lithuania, (2) determine the magnitude and spatial patterns of climate change effects on Lithuanian forests and forest management in the future, supposing that current forestry practices are continued. Materials and Methods: Upgraded version of Lithuanian forestry simulator Kupolis was used to model the development of all forests in the country until 2120 under management conditions of three climate change scenarios. Selected stand-level forest and forest management characteristics were aggregated to the level of regional branches of the State Forest Enterprise and analyzed for the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change effects. Results: Increased forest growth under a warmer future climate resulted in larger tree dimensions, volumes of growing stock, naturally dying trees, harvested assortments, and also higher profits from forestry activities. Negative impacts were detected for the share of broadleaved tree species in the standing volume and the tree species diversity. Climate change effects resulted in spatially clustered patterns—increasing stand productivity, and amounts of harvested timber were concentrated in the regions with dominating coniferous species, while the same areas were exposed to negative dynamics of biodiversity-related forest attributes. Current forest characteristics explained 70% or more of the variance of climate change effects on key forest and forest management attributes. Conclusions: Using forest decision support systems, climate change scenarios and considering the balance of delivered ecosystem services is suggested as a methodological framework for validating forest management alternatives aiming for more adaptiveness in Lithuanian forestry.

Download Full-text

Common garden comparisons confirm inherited differences in sensitivity to climate change between forest tree species

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.6213 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 7 ◽

pp. e6213 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero ◽

Antoine Kremer ◽

László Nagy ◽

Éva Újvári-Jármay ◽

Alexis Ducousso ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tree Species ◽

Mixed Model ◽

Tree Height ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Published Data ◽

Response Curves ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Mixed Model Approach ◽

Provenance Test

The natural distribution, habitat, growth and evolutionary history of tree species are strongly dependent on ecological and genetic processes in ecosystems subject to fluctuating climatic conditions, but there have been few experimental comparisons of sensitivity between species. We compared the responses of two broadleaved tree species (Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea) and two conifer tree species (Pinus sylvestris and Picea abies) to climatic transfers by fitting models containing the same climatic variables. We used published data from European provenance test networks to model the responses of individual populations nested within species. A mixed model approach was applied to develop a response function for tree height over climatic transfer distance, taking into account the climatic conditions at both the seed source and the test location. The two broadleaved species had flat climatic response curves, indicating high levels of plasticity in populations, facilitating adaptation to a broader range of environments, and conferring a high potential for resilience in the face of climatic change. By contrast, the two conifer species had response curves with more pronounced slopes, indicating a lower resilience to climate change. This finding may reflect stronger genetic clines in P. sylvestris and P. abies, which constrain their climate responses to narrower climatic ranges. The response functions had maxima that deviated from the expected maximum productivity in the climate of provenance towards cooler/moister climate conditions, which we interpreted as an adaptation lag. Unilateral, linear regression analyses following transfer to warmer and drier sites confirmed a decline in productivity, predictive of the likely impact of ongoing climate change on forest populations. The responses to mimicked climate change evaluated here are of considerable interest for forestry and ecology, supporting projections of expected performance based on “real-time” field data.

Download Full-text