scholarly journals Fiscal Decentralization, Institutional Quality, and Government Size: An Asymmetry Analysis for Asian Economies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidra Sohail ◽  
Sana Ullah ◽  
Ilhan Ozturk ◽  
Attiya Yasmin Javid
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Fiscal Decentralization ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Government Size ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Negative Shock

Abstract The aim of this study is to examine the asymmetric effects of fiscal decentralization and institutional quality on government size by employing asymmetric autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) methodology by using the time series data of Asain economies from 1984 to 2017. The results show that positive shocks in expenditures decentralization (ED) enhance government size in Japan, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Turkey, and reduces it in Korea, Rep. in long run. While negative shock in ED reduces government size in Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey and increases it in Kazakhstan and Mongolia in long run. Whereas asymmetric results in the long show that a positive shock in revenue decentralization (RD) increase government size in Pakistan, Japan, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Turkey, and a negative shock in RD is also decreased government size in Pakistan, Mongolia, Thailand, and Turkey. The results also disclosed that positive shock in institutional quality (IQ) increases government size in Azerbaijan, Japan, Thailand and negative shock in IQ also increases government size in Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Japan, Kazakhstan, Thailand, in the long run. While short-run asymmetric results of fiscal decentralization and institutional quality on government size have robust in the public sector. Based on the empirical outcomes, some economic policy implications are proposed for the provincial and federal governments of Asain economies.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

Does mobile money business influence non-performing loans in the traditional banking sector? Evidence from Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 171-188
Author(s):  
Rexford Kweku Asiama ◽  
Anthony Amoah ◽  
Godson Ahiabor
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Business Operations ◽  
Long Run

The study analyzes the influence of mobile money business on the growth of non-performing loans in Ghana. Quarterly time-series data from 2000-2018 are used. This secondary data was obtained from the the New International Database of Financial Fragility and the Bank of Ghana online database. In the absence of data on quarterly volumes of mobile money transactions or the estimated number of firms, we present groundbreaking macro-level evidence of how mobile money business operations contribute to the problem of nonperforming loans in Ghana. We estimated an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and find that mobile money business operations positively influence non-performing loans in Ghana. This influence persists in the long-run and raises some policy implications for the banking sector in the country. The paper recommends the need for regulators to develop a policy that creates a well-connected and transparent financial system.

Macro-Economic Disequilibrium and Educational Development in Nigeria between 1980-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (08) ◽  
pp. 20592-21600
Author(s):  
Gbadebo Salako ◽  
Adejumo Musibau Ojo ◽  
Jaji Ayobami Francis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Educational Development ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
Level I

This study empirically investigates the effects of macroeconomic disequilibrium on educational development in Nigeria. The study employed time series data between 1980 and 2017. Autoregressive Distributed Lag method of estimation was employed. The result revealed that the variables stationarity test were mixed between the first difference I(I) and level I(0). The cointegration result shows that there exist long run relationship between the variables. The result revealed that Balance of payment, Poverty, Debt rate inflation and unemployment exhibited negative relationship with educational development. The estimation result showed that all explanatory variables account for 88% variation of educational development in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that government should fast track policies that can stabilize inflation and exchange rate in the country. Also, Policies must be formulated to reduce poverty and unemployment.

Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Econometric Evidence from Malaysia

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-112
Author(s):  
Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker ◽  
Tan Siew Ee ◽  
Sushant Vaidik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Paper Cover ◽  
Econometric Evidence ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The objective of this paper is to test the validity of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) in the Malaysian economy. Malaysia has always been considered to have attained its growth primarily through exports (Okposin, Bassey, Hamid, Halim, and Boon, 1999; Mun, 2008; Mahathir, 1990). In the past, several studies on this topic have been conducted but their analyses were limited to relationships using Bound-testing, Autoregressive –Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Toda Yamamoto analysis. Empirical data and analysis in our paper cover a 21 – year span and quarterly time-series data (1991:Q1 – 2012:Q4) are used to test this ELG hypothesis. Also, many dynamic econometric measures including the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip – Perron (PP) unit root tests, Cointegration test as well as the Vector Error Correction model (VEC) for the long run have been applied. Based on these generic models, both real exports and capital stock (productivity) are found to have stimulated positive adjustments to economic growth in the long run whereas real exchange rate is found to have influenced economic growth negatively. Overall, our conclusion is that the ELG hypothesis seems applicable to Malaysia in the long run.

scholarly journals Consequences of Capital formation, Trade Liberalization on the Economic Growth: Pakistan’s Experience

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Nadia Bukhari ◽  
Anjum Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Adf Test

This study considers the long run relationship between the liberalization of trade, capital formation and the economic growth of Pakistan by using the time series data from 1975-2013. The main aim of this study is to examine that how much liberalization of trade and capital formation affects the economic growth of Pakistan in long run. The approach that has been used for empirical analysis is Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Under the ADF test capital formation (CF) is stationary at its first level but the trade openness (TO) and GDP is stationary at its first difference. Moreover, the granger casualty test is evident that there become a casual relationship between the trade openness and GDP. The result of this study shows that both the trade openness and the capital formation determined the economic growth in long run and they both have statistically significant effect on the GDP. Furthermore it has has been depicted from the study that the trade has a vital role to influence the economic growth.

scholarly journals Financial innovation and economic growth: evidence from Zimbabwe

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 65-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Bara ◽  
Calvin Mudzingiri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Dark Side ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests

The role of financial innovation on economic growth in developing countries has not been actively pursued. Stemming from the finance-growth nexus, literature suggests that financial innovation has a relationship to growth, which could be either positive or negative. Implicitly, financial innovation has a good and a dark side that affects growth. This study establishes the causal relationship between financial innovation and economic growth in Zimbabwe empirically. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds tests and Granger causality tests on financial time series data of Zimbabwe for the period 1980-2013, the study finds that financial innovation has a relationship to economic growth that varies depending on the variable used to measure financial innovation. A long-run, growth-driven financial innovationis confirmed, with causality running from economic growth to financial innovation. Bi-directional causality also exists after conditionally netting-off financial development. Policies that enhance economic growth inter-twined with financial innovation are essential, if developing countries, such as Zimbabwe, aim to maximize economic development

scholarly journals Stride of Service Sector in Nepal’s Trajectories of Structural Change

2018 ◽  
pp. 69-98
Author(s):  
Madhav Prasad Dahal
Keyword(s):  
Structural Transformation ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Gross Value Added

Agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors are the major economic sectors of a country. The long held view is that economies’ development trajectories move from agriculture to manufacturing to services. These conclusions are primarily based on the studies of developed countries. However more recent studies relating to developing countries have brought evidences that the structural transformation path is not linear as experienced by today’s developed countries. Nepal is not an exception is experiencing the waves of sector-wise structural transformation. Using time series data of the period 1975-2016 of the economy of Nepal this paper analyses the association between gross value added and service sector value added in the analytic-framework of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) to cointegration. The empirical result reveal a cointegrating relationship between real gross value added and service sector value added. Result also show service sector enhancing role of education and export trade of Nepal. The paper finally draws few policy implications essential for service sector sustainability to support overall economic growth.Economic Journal of Development Issues Vol. 21 & 22 No. 1-2 (2016) Combined Issue

scholarly journals Sectoral Investment and Employment Generation in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-270
Author(s):  
Furrukh Bashir ◽  
Hafeez ur Rehman ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Ismat Nasim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Employment Generation

This study is projected at investigating the influence of Sectoral Investment on Employment Generation. For this purpose, time series data is collected from Pakistan over the period from 1972 to 2017. Augmented Dickey fuller test reveals that few variables considered in the study are stationary at level and few at first difference. So, econometric results are estimated using autoregressive and distributed lag model for long run elasticities. Long run co-integrating relationship is established at 2.5 percent level using ARDL bound testing approach. ARDL long run results concludes that Agricultural Investment, Industrial Investment, Services Sector Investment and Trade openness are increasing employment while inflation and tax revenue are seemed to be negatively related with employment of Pakistan in the long run.

scholarly journals Determinants of Private Investment in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 86-92
Author(s):  
Muhammad Suleman ◽  
Abdur Rehman ◽  
Haroon Javaid
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Short Run

Private investment has a significant relation with the economic growth of the country. It plays an important role in reduction of unemployment and poverty by promoting efficiency and competition among the firms. This study is an attempt to investigate the determinants of private investment in Pakistan. For this purpose, time-series data is utilized for the period 1974-2013. The ARDL (Auto Regressive-Distributed Lag) modeling technique of co-integration was employed to estimate the short-run and long-run determinants of private investment in Pakistan. Empirical findings of this study indicated that in the short-run private investment in Pakistan is determined by the growth rate of GDP, public sector investment, and domestic savings. While in the long run it is determined by the official exchange rate, the growth rate of GDP, public sector investment, domestic savings, trade openness, and interest rate. The results also revealed that in the case of Pakistan different political regimes (democratic, non-democratic) have no significance in the determination of private investment. Stability tests of CUSUM and (CUSUMSQ) (Cumulative Sum Control Chart) were performed in this study. These tests indicated a stable, long run as well as short-run structural stability of the model.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic variables on the credit provided by Saudi Banks: تأثير المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية على التمويل المصرفي في المملكة العربية السعودية (دراسة قياسية شملت البيانات من 1970م – 2012م)

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eyas Jafar Abdel Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The study aimed to examine the impact of macroeconomic variables of the Saudi economy as in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Government Expenditure (G), Economic Openness (OPE), Inflation Rate (CPI) and the Bank Deposits (DS) on the credit provided by Saudi banks (BF), on annual time series data between 1970-2012. To investigate this relationship, the study used Autoregressive Distributed Lag method (ARDL) to measure the long-run and short-run impact, At that the E-views 8.1 has been used for analyze the cointegration,the diagnostic, the reliability - stability tests, and the forecasting behavior of the model. The study found that (BF) is affected positively by (GDP) growth rate in the long-run. Also the (BF) has been affected negatively in the short and long-run by inflation rates (CPI) and government expenditure (G). Consequently the Contractionary Fiscal Policy in recent period will not lead to reduce the financial performance of Saudi banks, and the growth of (GDP) in the future will have positive impact on the financing capacity of the Saudi banking sector.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document