scholarly journals COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge

Author(s):  
Jarmo Kikstra ◽  
Adriano Vinca ◽  
Francesco Lovat ◽  
Benigna Boza-Kiss ◽  
Bastiaan van Ruijven ◽  
...  

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. However, how a post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here, we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the demand-side effect on final energy and GHG emissions. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 12 to 40 EJ/yr by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emissions reductions by 2030 of 28 to 53 GtCO2, depending on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with low energy demand practices - embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption, and production – reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5°C consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by 2.1 trillion USD, and lessens pressure on the upscaling of renewable energy technologies.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adriano Vinca ◽  
Jarmo S. Kikstra ◽  
Francesco Lovat ◽  
Benigna Boza-Kiss ◽  
Bas van Ruijven ◽  
...  

<p>The COVID-19 pandemic is causing radical temporary breaks with past energy use and GHG emissions trends. However, how a post-pandemic recovery will impact longer-term transformations to a low-carbon society is unclear. Here, we present different global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore economic uncertainty and the demand-side effect on emissions. We consider changes in the residential, industry and transport energy sub-sectors under diverging cases that might lead to a more carbon intensive and individualistic way of consumption, or to a policy-advised new future that supports the emission reduction opportunities seen during the pandemic. The resulting impact on cumulative CO2 emissions over the coming decade can range from 28 to 53 GtCO2 reduction depending on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and the extent and persistence of demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with low energy demand practices - embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption, and production – reduces climate mitigation challenges in the long run. We show that a low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5°C consistent pathway by 19%, saves energy supply investments until 2030 by 2.1 trillion USD, and lessens pressure on the upscaling of renewable energy technologies.  </p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 395-410 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shogo Sakamoto ◽  
Yu Nagai ◽  
Masahiro Sugiyama ◽  
Shinichiro Fujimori ◽  
Etsushi Kato ◽  
...  

AbstractJapan’s long-term strategy submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change emphasizes the importance of improving the electrification rates to reducing GHG emissions. Using the five models participating in Energy Modeling Forum 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), we focused on the demand-side decarbonization and analyzed the final energy composition required to achieve 80% reductions in GHGs by 2050 in Japan. The model results show that the electricity share in final energy use (electrification rate) needs to reach 37–66% in 2050 (26% in 2010) to achieve the emissions reduction of 80%. The electrification rate increases mainly due to switching from fossil fuel end-use technologies (i.e. oil water heater, oil stove and combustion-engine vehicles) to electricity end-use technologies (i.e. heat pump water heater and electric vehicles). The electricity consumption in 2050 other than AIM/Hub ranged between 840 and 1260 TWh (AIM/Hub: 1950TWh), which is comparable to the level seen in the last 10 years (950–1035 TWh). The pace at which electrification rate must be increased is a challenge. The model results suggest to increase the electrification pace to 0.46–1.58%/yr from 2030 to 2050. Neither the past electrification pace (0.30%/year from 1990 to 2010) nor the outlook of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (0.15%/year from 2010 to 2030) is enough to reach the suggested electrification rates in 2050. Therefore, more concrete measures to accelerate dissemination of electricity end-use technologies across all sectors need to be established.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Eyre

AbstractRecent evidence indicates that the key sources of energy for the zero carbon transition will be renewable electricity sources. The most rapidly expanding sources, photovoltaics and wind produce work, as electricity, directly rather than via heat engines. Making the assumption that these will be the dominant sources of energy in a future zero carbon system, the paper makes two new related and innovative contributions to the literature on the energy transition. First, it shows that the energy transition will be more than just a shift away from carbonaceous fuels, and that it is more usefully thought of as including a systemic shift from heat-producing to work-producing energy sources. Secondly, it shows that this enables very large improvements in the conversion efficiency of final energy, through the use of electricity and hydrogen, in particular in heating and transportation. The paper presents a thought experiment showing a reduction in final energy demand of up to 40% is likely from this effect alone. Technical standards and product regulation for end use conversion efficiency and/or service delivery efficiency seem likely to be key policy instruments.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (17) ◽  
pp. 5567
Author(s):  
Pedro R. R. Rochedo ◽  
Panagiotis Fragkos ◽  
Rafael Garaffa ◽  
Lilia Caiado Couto ◽  
Luiz Bernardo Baptista ◽  
...  

Emissions pathways after COVID-19 will be shaped by how governments’ economic responses translate into infrastructure expansion, energy use, investment planning and societal changes. As a response to the COVID-19 crisis, most governments worldwide launched recovery packages aiming to boost their economies, support employment and enhance their competitiveness. Climate action is pledged to be embedded in most of these packages, but with sharp differences across countries. This paper provides novel evidence on the energy system and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions implications of post-COVID-19 recovery packages by assessing the gap between pledged recovery packages and the actual investment needs of the energy transition to reach the Paris Agreement goals. Using two well-established Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and analysing various scenarios combining recovery packages and climate policies, we conclude that currently planned recovery from COVID-19 is not enough to enhance societal responses to climate urgency and that it should be significantly upscaled and prolonged to ensure compatibility with the Paris Agreement goals.


2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 285-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugene A. Mohareb ◽  
Adrian K. Mohareb

One of the most significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Canada is the buildings sector, with over 30% of national energy end-use occurring in buildings. Energy use must be addressed to reduce emissions from the buildings sector, as nearly 70% of all Canada’s energy used in the residential sector comes from fossil sources. An analysis of GHG emissions from the existing residential building stock for the year 2010 has been conducted for six Canadian cities with different climates and development histories: Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal, and Halifax. Variation across these cities is seen in their 2010 GHG emissions, due to climate, characteristics of the building stock, and energy conversion technologies, with Halifax having the highest per capita emissions at 5.55 tCO2e/capita and Montreal having the lowest at 0.32 tCO2e/capita. The importance of the provincial electricity grid’s carbon intensity is emphasized, along with era of construction, occupancy, floor area, and climate. Approaches to achieving deep emissions reductions include innovative retrofit financing and city level residential energy conservation by-laws; each region should seek location-appropriate measures to reduce energy demand within its residential housing stock, as well as associated GHG emissions.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 4954
Author(s):  
Mohammad AlHashmi ◽  
Gyan Chhipi-Shrestha ◽  
Kh Md. Nahiduzzaman ◽  
Kasun Hewage ◽  
Rehan Sadiq

Rapid population growth has led to significant demand for residential buildings around the world. Consequently, there is a growing energy demand associated with increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The residential building energy demand in arid countries such as Saudi Arabia is supplied with fossil fuel. The existing consumption pattern of fossil fuels in Saudi Arabia is less sustainable due to the depletion of fossil fuel resources and resulting environmental impacts. Buildings built in hot and arid climatic conditions demand high energy for creating habitable indoor environments. Enormous energy is required to maintain a cool temperature in hot regions. Moreover, climate change may have different impacts on hot climatic regions and affect building energy use differently. This means that different building interventions may be required to improve the performance of building energy performance in these geographical regions, thereby reducing the emissions of GHGs. In this study, this framework has been applied to Saudi Arabia, a hot and arid country. This research proposes a community–government partnership framework for developing low-carbon energy in residential buildings. This study focuses on both the operational energy demand and a cost-benefit analysis of energy use in the selected geographical regions for the next 30 years (i.e., 2050). The proposed framework primarily consists of four stages: (1) data collection on energy use (2020 to 2050); (2) setting a GHG emissions reduction target; (3) a building intervention approach by the community by considering cost, energy, and GHG emissions using the Technique for Order of Performance by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to select the best combinations in each geographical region conducting 180 simulations; and (4) a clean energy approach by the government using grey relational analysis (GRA) to select the best clean energy system on the grid. The clean energy approach selected six different renewable power generation systems (i.e., PV array, wind turbine, hybrid system) with two storage systems (i.e., battery bank and a combination of electrolyte, fuel cell, and hydrogen tank storage). This approach is designed to identify the best clean energy systems in five geographical regions with thirty scenario analyses to define renewable energy-economy benefits. This framework informs through many engineering tools such as residential building energy analysis, renewable energy analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques, and cost-benefit analysis. Integration between these engineering tools with the set of energy policies and public initiatives is designed to achieve further directives in the effort to reach greater efficiency while downsizing residential energy demands. The results of this paper propose that a certain level of cooperation is required between the community and the government in terms of financial investments and the best combinations of retrofits and clean energy measures. Thus, retrofits and clean energy measures can help save carbon emissions (enhancing the energy performance of buildings) and decrease associated GHG emissions, which can help policy makers to achieve low-carbon emission communities.


AIMS Energy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1170-1191
Author(s):  
Peter Schwartzman ◽  
◽  
David Schwartzman ◽  

<abstract> <p>First, we recognize the valuable previous studies which model renewable energy growth with complete termination of fossil fuels along with assumptions of the remaining carbon budgets to reach IPCC warming targets. However, these studies use very complex combined economic/physical modeling and commonly lack transparency regarding the sensitivity to assumed inputs. Moreover, it is not clear that energy poverty with its big present impact in the global South has been eliminated in their scenarios. Further, their CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalent natural gas emission factors are underestimated, which will have significant impact on the computed greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, we address this question in a transparent modeling study: can the 1.5 ℃ warming target still be met with an aggressive phaseout of fossil fuels coupled with a 100% replacement by renewable energy? We compute the continuous generation of global wind/solar energy power along with the cumulative carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in a complete phaseout of fossil fuels over a 20 year period. We compare these computed emissions with the state-of-the-science estimates for the remaining carbon budget of carbon dioxide emissions consistent with the 1.5 ℃ warming target, concluding that it is still possible to meet this warming target if the creation of a global 100% renewable energy transition of sufficient capacity begins very soon which will likely be needed to power aggressive negative carbon emission technology. The latter is focused on direct air capture for crustal storage. More efficient renewable technologies in the near future will make this transition easier and promote the implementation of a global circular economy. Taking into account technological improvements in 2<sup>nd</sup> law (exergy) efficiencies reducing the necessary global energy demand, the renewable supply should likely be no more than 1.5 times the present level, with the capacity to eliminate global energy poverty, for climate mitigation and adaptation.</p> </abstract>


Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 311
Author(s):  
Joo Young Lee ◽  
Su Hyeon Han

This paper looks at the current state of multilateral development banks (MDBs) for climate change measures and the funding status of those invested in mitigation technology in order to briefly review the current outcome of the technology transfer and financial support. In other words, the aim of this study is to collect and analyze information about the current status of total investment in the field of technology for mitigating GHGs (Greenhouse Gases) from MDBs and identify implications of the status. In this study, a screening technique has been used three times to make a database for project information in the field of mitigation of climate change. So far, based on the finalized DB (Database), mitigation technology projects supported by MDBs have been investigated; based on the result, a connected analysis has been conducted between MDBs, mitigation technology, and countries. According to the derived current status, project support in renewable energy and energy demand areas turned out to be the highest at 75% of the entire mitigation technology. Rather than the renewable energy and energy demand areas where climate technology projects have frequently been performed throughout the world, it was confirmed that long-term climate technology projects for GHG fixation were being performed. According to the results of comparison and analysis of countries with high GHG emissions and their centrality, centrality turned out to be high in the field of GHG fixation in China, the country with the highest GHG emissions. This seems to indicate that countries emitting a substantial amount of GHGs will invest more on projects in the field of GHG fixation as well as on projects on renewable energy. Thus, this study is expected to contribute to understanding the trends of climate technology projects for coping with climate change and using them in establishing future policies on climate technology. In addition, it is expected to be used as a reference for countries with insufficient investment in climate technology despite the high Climate Risk Index (CRI).


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document