Analyzing the Effects of Temperature and Human Movement on Malaria Disease Transmission Dynamics
Abstract Background: Malaria disease is transmitted by the bite of Anopheles mosquitoes. Plasmodium parasites are responsible for the disease. Due to human movement from one place to the other, vector borne diseases like malaria are spreading rapidly throughout the world. They have become major causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Changing temperature levels has significant impact on the life cycle, biting behavior and death rates of the mosquitoes which can transmit the disease.Methods: A multi patch SEIRS - SEI deterministic compartmental model for malaria disease is developed to study the disease transmission dynamics. The impact of temperature and human movement in transmission dynamics is investigated. Both global and local basic reproduction numbers are computed for two patches in two patch setting.Results: Disease free equilibrium is locally stable when the basic reproduction number is less than unity and unstable when the number is greater than unity. Numerical results show that the prevalence of the disease changes with the change in human movement rates between the patches; temperature affects the transmission dynamics of malaria disease.Conclusion: The burden of malaria disease can be reduced by managing the host movement between low and high disease prevalent patches. The optimal temperature for malaria disease transmission is 25 °C.