scholarly journals Short-Term Projection of COVID 19 Cases in Kenya using an Exponential Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Kiruri Kirichu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
The Real ◽  
Time Reproduction ◽  
First Case

Abstract Introduction: The COVID-19 disease has spread to over 200 countries and territories since the first case was recorded in Wuhan, China in December 2019. In Kenya, the first case of COVID-19 was recorded on 13th March 2020 and since then over five thousand cases have been confirmed as of 26th June 2020. In the same period, one hundred and forty four mortality cases had been recorded in the country. With the rapid changing situation, timely and reliable data is required for monitoring, planning and rapid decision making with an aim of reversing the already deteriorating situation (economic, health, learning among others) in the country. Methods: The study used the exponential growth model to estimate the daily growth rate and the real-time-effective reproduction number. The study also estimated the naïve and the adjusted Case Fatality Rates. Results: The naïve-Case Fatality Rate of 26th June 2020 which was the 106 day after the first case was confirmed in Kenya was estimated as 2.5% while the adjusted Case Fatality Rate with a lag of 2 days was estimated as 2.6%. The daily exponential growth rate was estimated as 0.22 while the real-time reproduction number as of 26th June 2020 was estimated as 1.28 [95% CI: 1.27 – 1.29]. Conclusion: The daily growth rate and the real-time reproduction number indicated that the outbreak was still growing as of the time of analysis.

scholarly journals Phasic containment of COVID-19 in substantially affected states of India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manisha Mandal ◽  
Shyamapada Mandal
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Indian Context ◽  
Serial Interval

AbstractThe spread of COVID-19 epidemic in some highly-impacted Indian states displayed a characteristic sub-exponential growth projected up to 3 May 2020, as a consequence of lockdown strategies, in addition to improvement of reproduction number (R), serial interval, and daily growth rate, but not case fatality rate (CFR). The effect of COVID-19 containment was more prominent in second phase of lockdown with declining R, which was still >1, suggesting the requirement of sustained interventions for effective containment of COVID-19 pandemic in Indian context.

scholarly journals Early Phasic Containment of COVID-19 in Substantially Affected States of India

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4-s) ◽  
pp. 31-33
Author(s):  
Manisha Mandal ◽  
Shyamapada Mandal
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Serial Interval

Introduction: India is experiencing the global COVID-19 pandemic caused with the infection of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2). To explore the early epidemic course and the effectiveness of lockdowns on COVID-19 pandemic in some worst-affected Indian states. Methods: Using publicly available real data and model-based prediction, the growth rate, case fatality rate, serial interval, and time-varying reproduction number (R) of COVID-19 were estimated, before and after lockdown implementation in India. Results: The spread of COVID-19 epidemic in some highly-impacted Indian states displayed a characteristic sub-exponential growth projected up to 3 May 2020, as a consequence of lockdown strategies, in addition to improvement of reproduction number (R), serial interval, and daily growth rate, but not case fatality rate (CFR). The effect of COVID-19 containment was more prominent in second phase of lockdown with declining R, which was still >1. Conclusion: The current findings suggest the requirement of sustained interventions for effective containment of COVID-19 pandemic in Indian context. Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Indian states, epidemiological parameters, lockdown effect.

scholarly journals Public Compliance With Social Distancing Measures and SARS-CoV-2 Spread

2021 ◽  
pp. 003335492110112
Author(s):  
Hongjie Liu ◽  
Chang Chen ◽  
Raul Cruz-Cano ◽  
Jennifer L. Guida ◽  
Minha Lee
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Density Change ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Social Distancing

Objective We quantified the association between public compliance with social distancing measures and the spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the epidemic (March–May 2020) in 5 states that accounted for half of the total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Methods We used data on mobility and number of COVID-19 cases to longitudinally estimate associations between public compliance, as measured by human mobility, and the daily reproduction number and daily growth rate during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York. Results The 5 states mandated social distancing directives during March 19-24, 2020, and public compliance with mandates started to decrease in mid-April 2020. As of May 31, 2020, the daily reproduction number decreased from 2.41-5.21 to 0.72-1.19, and the daily growth rate decreased from 0.22-0.77 to –0.04 to 0.05 in the 5 states. The level of public compliance, as measured by the social distancing index (SDI) and daily encounter-density change, was high at the early stage of implementation but decreased in the 5 states. The SDI was negatively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, –0.04 to –0.01) and the daily growth rate (from –0.009 to –0.01). The daily encounter-density change was positively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, 0.24 to 1.02) and the daily growth rate (from 0.05 to 0.26). Conclusions Social distancing is an effective strategy to reduce the incidence of COVID-19 and illustrates the role of public compliance with social distancing measures to achieve public health benefits.

scholarly journals Estimating the real-time case fatality rate of COVID-19 using Poisson mixtures model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul H. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The Real ◽  
Poisson Mixtures

ABSTRACTWe proposed using Poisson mixtures model that utilized data of deaths, recoveries, and total confirmed cases in each day since the outbreak. We demonstrated that our CFR estimates for Hubei Province and other parts of China were superior to the simple CFR estimators in the early stage of COVID-19 outbreak.

scholarly journals COVID-19 pandemic scenario in India compared to China and rest of the world: a data driven and model analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manisha Mandal ◽  
Shyamapada Mandal
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Respiratory Illness ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
The World ◽  
Before And After

AbstractThe COVID-19 is a rapidly spreading respiratory illness caused with the infection of SARS-CoV-2. The COVID-19 data from India was compared with China and rest of the world. The average values of daily growth rate (DGR), case recovery rate (CRR), case fatality rate (CFR), serial interval (SI) of COVID-19 in India was 17%, 8.25%, and 1.87%, and 5.76 days respectively, as of April 9, 2020. The data driven estimates of basic reproduction number (R0), average reproduction number (R) and effective reproduction number (Re) were 1.03, 1.73, and 1.35, respectively. The results of exponential and SIR model showed higher estimates of R0, R and Re. The data driven as well as estimated COVID-19 cases reflect the growing nature of the epidemic in India and world excluding China, whereas the same in China reveal the involved population became infected with the disease and moved into the recovered stage. The epidemic size of India was estimated to be ∼30,284 (as of April 15, 2020 with 12,370 infectious cases) with an estimated end of the epidemic on June 9, 2020. The Re values in India before and after lockdown were 1.62 and 1.37 respectively, with SI 5.52 days and 5.98 days, respectively, as of April 17, 2020, reflecting the effectiveness of lockdown strategies. Beyond April 17, 2020, our estimate of 24,431 COVID-19 infected cases with lockdown is 78% lower compared to the 112,042 case estimates in absence of lockdown, on April 27, 2020. To early end of the COVID-19 epidemic, strong social distancing is important.

scholarly journals The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 does not show any association among South Asian populations

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Prajjval Pratap Singh ◽  
Anshika Srivastava ◽  
Gazi Nurun Nahar Sultana ◽  
Nargis Khanam ◽  
Abhishek Pathak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Genetic Risk ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Genomic Segment ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
The Real ◽  
Asian Populations

AbstractWith the growing evidence on the variable human susceptibility against COVID-19, it is evident that some genetic loci modulate the severity of the infection. Recent studies have identified several loci associated with greater severity. More recently, a study has identified a 50 kb genomic segment introgressed from Neanderthal adding a risk for COVID-19, and this genomic segment is present among 16% and 50% people of European and South Asian descent, respectively. Our studies on ACE2 identified a haplotype present among 20% and 60% of European and South Asian populations, respectively, which appears to be responsible for the low case fatality rate among South Asian populations. This result was also consistent with the real-time infection rate and case fatality rate among various states of India. We readdressed this issue using both of the contrasting datasets and compared them with the real-time infection rates and case fatality rate in India. We found that the polymorphism present in the 50 kb introgressed genomic segment (rs10490770) did not show any significant correlation with the infection and case fatality rate in India.

SUBSTITUSI FERMENTASI BUNGKIL KELAPA SAWIT DALAM PAKAN BUATAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN DAN KELANGSUNGAN HIDUP BENIH IKAN GURAMI (OSPHRONEMUS GOURAMY)

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Farida . ◽  
Eka Indah Raharjo ◽  
Arnis Maylinda Sari
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Palm Kernel ◽  
Specific Weight ◽  
Feed Conversion ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Fermentation Residue ◽  
Average Average

ABSTRAKPenelitian bertujuan untuk mengetahui penggunaan fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit dalam pakan buatan.Penelitian menggunakan Rancangan Acak Lengkap (RAL) yang terdiri dari 4 perlakuan 3 ulangan.Susunan perlakuan adalah Perlakuan A : bungkil kelapa sawit 12%, Perlakuan B : fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit 15%, Perlakuan C : fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit 18%, Perlakuan D : fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit 21%. Penelitian ini dilakukan selama 60 hari untuk mengetahui laju pertumbuhan spesifikberat, laju pertumbuhan harianpanjang, konversi pakan, kelangsungan hidup dan kualitas air sebagai penunjang.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan pemberian pakan buatan dengan fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit menghasilkan respon yang baik terhadap pertumbuhan ikan gurami. Pemberian pakan buatan dengan fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit 18% (perlakuan C), memberikan hasil terbaik dengan laju pertumbuhan dengan rata – rata laju pertumbuhan spesifik berat 1.502%, laju pertumbuhan harian panjang 4.06%, nilai konversi pakan rata – rata 3.48 dan kelangsungan hidup rata – rata 90%.Kata Kunci : Fermentasi Bungkil Kelapa Sawit, Ikan Gurami, Laju PertumbuhanThe study aims to determine the use of fermentation residue oil palm in artificial feed .Research using a completely randomized design ( CRD ), which consists of 4 treatment three replications.The composition of the treatment is the treatment  A : 12 % of palm oil cake , Treatment B : fermented palm oil cake 15 % , Treatment C : fermented palm oil cake 18 % , Treatment D : fermentation residue palm oil 21 %.This research was conducted for 60 days to determine the specific growth rate of heavy , long daily growth rate , feed conversion , survival and quality of water as a supporter.The results showed the artificial feeding with fermented palm cake to produce a good response to the growth of carp.Feeding artificially by fermentation cake palm oil 18 % ( treatment C ) , gives the best results with a growth rate with the average - average growth rate of the specific weight of 1.502 % daily growth rate long- 4:06 % , the value of feed conversion average - average 3:48 and median survival - average of 90 % .Keywords : Fermentation Palm Kernel Oil, Fish carp, Growth Rate

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Youssef Kada
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Therapeutic Protocol ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

scholarly journals PIN50 Leveraging Publicly Available Data to Estimate a Real-Time Reproduction Number (Rt) for Covid-19: A Comparison of Two Methods

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
pp. S114
Author(s):  
S. Emerson ◽  
K. Johnston ◽  
A. Howarth ◽  
J. Schneider ◽  
M. Friesen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Time Reproduction
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