scholarly journals Public Compliance With Social Distancing Measures and SARS-CoV-2 Spread

2021 ◽  
pp. 003335492110112
Author(s):  
Hongjie Liu ◽  
Chang Chen ◽  
Raul Cruz-Cano ◽  
Jennifer L. Guida ◽  
Minha Lee
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Density Change ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Social Distancing

Objective We quantified the association between public compliance with social distancing measures and the spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the first wave of the epidemic (March–May 2020) in 5 states that accounted for half of the total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Methods We used data on mobility and number of COVID-19 cases to longitudinally estimate associations between public compliance, as measured by human mobility, and the daily reproduction number and daily growth rate during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in California, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York. Results The 5 states mandated social distancing directives during March 19-24, 2020, and public compliance with mandates started to decrease in mid-April 2020. As of May 31, 2020, the daily reproduction number decreased from 2.41-5.21 to 0.72-1.19, and the daily growth rate decreased from 0.22-0.77 to –0.04 to 0.05 in the 5 states. The level of public compliance, as measured by the social distancing index (SDI) and daily encounter-density change, was high at the early stage of implementation but decreased in the 5 states. The SDI was negatively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, –0.04 to –0.01) and the daily growth rate (from –0.009 to –0.01). The daily encounter-density change was positively associated with the daily reproduction number (regression coefficients range, 0.24 to 1.02) and the daily growth rate (from 0.05 to 0.26). Conclusions Social distancing is an effective strategy to reduce the incidence of COVID-19 and illustrates the role of public compliance with social distancing measures to achieve public health benefits.

scholarly journals Short-Term Projection of COVID 19 Cases in Kenya using an Exponential Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Kiruri Kirichu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
The Real ◽  
Time Reproduction ◽  
First Case

Abstract Introduction: The COVID-19 disease has spread to over 200 countries and territories since the first case was recorded in Wuhan, China in December 2019. In Kenya, the first case of COVID-19 was recorded on 13th March 2020 and since then over five thousand cases have been confirmed as of 26th June 2020. In the same period, one hundred and forty four mortality cases had been recorded in the country. With the rapid changing situation, timely and reliable data is required for monitoring, planning and rapid decision making with an aim of reversing the already deteriorating situation (economic, health, learning among others) in the country. Methods: The study used the exponential growth model to estimate the daily growth rate and the real-time-effective reproduction number. The study also estimated the naïve and the adjusted Case Fatality Rates. Results: The naïve-Case Fatality Rate of 26th June 2020 which was the 106 day after the first case was confirmed in Kenya was estimated as 2.5% while the adjusted Case Fatality Rate with a lag of 2 days was estimated as 2.6%. The daily exponential growth rate was estimated as 0.22 while the real-time reproduction number as of 26th June 2020 was estimated as 1.28 [95% CI: 1.27 – 1.29]. Conclusion: The daily growth rate and the real-time reproduction number indicated that the outbreak was still growing as of the time of analysis.

scholarly journals Human mobility trends during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0241468
Author(s):  
Minha Lee ◽  
Jun Zhao ◽  
Qianqian Sun ◽  
Yixuan Pan ◽  
Weiyi Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Tangible Evidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
At Home

In March of this year, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, and it continues to threaten public health. This global health crisis imposes limitations on daily movements, which have deteriorated every sector in our society. Understanding public reactions to the virus and the non-pharmaceutical interventions should be of great help to fight COVID-19 in a strategic way. We aim to provide tangible evidence of the human mobility trends by comparing the day-by-day variations across the U.S. from January 2020 to early April 2020. Large-scale public mobility at an aggregated level is observed by leveraging mobile device location data and the measures related to social distancing. Our study captures spatial and temporal heterogeneity as well as the sociodemographic variations and teleworking trends regarding the pandemic propagation and the non-pharmaceutical mobility interventions. All metrics adapted capture decreased public movements after the national emergency declaration. The population staying home has increased in all states before the stay-at-home mandates implemented and becomes more stable after the order with a smaller range of fluctuation. The public had been taking active responses, voluntarily staying home more, to the in-state confirmed cases while the stay-at-home orders stabilize the variations. As the estimated teleworking rates also continue to incline throughout the study period, the teleworking trend can be another driving factor for the growing stay-at-home population. We confirm that there exists overall mobility heterogeneity between the income or population density groups. The study suggests that public mobility trends are in line with the government message urging to stay home. We anticipate our data-driven analysis offers integrated perspectives and serves as evidence to raise public awareness and, consequently, reinforce the importance of social distancing while assisting policymakers.

scholarly journals Impacts of introducing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 daily growth rate and compliance in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (12) ◽  
pp. e2021359118
Author(s):  
Surya Singh ◽  
Mujaheed Shaikh ◽  
Katharina Hauck ◽  
Marisa Miraldo
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Population Characteristics ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Reduced Mobility

We evaluate the impacts of implementing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in US counties on the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases and compliance, measured through the percentage of devices staying home, and evaluate whether introducing and lifting NPIs protecting selective populations is an effective strategy. We use difference-in-differences methods, leveraging on daily county-level data and exploit the staggered introduction and lifting of policies across counties over time. We also assess heterogenous impacts due to counties’ population characteristics, namely ethnicity and household income. Results show that introducing NPIs led to a reduction in cases through the percentage of devices staying home. When counties lifted NPIs, they benefited from reduced mobility outside of the home during the lockdown, but only for a short period. In the long term, counties experienced diminished health and mobility gains accrued from previously implemented policies. Notably, we find heterogenous impacts due to population characteristics implying that measures can mitigate the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 on marginalized populations and find that selectively targeting populations may not be effective.

scholarly journals The Spread of COVID-19 Increases With Individual Mobility and Depends on Political Leaning

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Parker ◽  
Jorge Mejia ◽  
Franco Pestilli
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Individual Mobility ◽  
Open Datasets ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The implementation of social distancing policies is key to reducing the impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic. However, their effectiveness ultimately depends on human behavior. In the United States, compliance with social distancing policies has widely varied thus far during the pandemic. But what drives such variability? Through six open datasets, including actual human mobility, we estimated the association between mobility and the growth rate of COVID-19 cases across 3,107 U.S. counties, generalizing previous reports. In addition, data from the 2016 U.S. presidential election was used to measure how the association between mobility and COVID-19 growth rate differed based on voting patterns. A significant association between political leaning and the COVID-19 growth rate was measured. Our results demonstrate that political orientation may inform models predicting the impact of policies in reducing the spread of COVID-19.

SUBSTITUSI FERMENTASI BUNGKIL KELAPA SAWIT DALAM PAKAN BUATAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN DAN KELANGSUNGAN HIDUP BENIH IKAN GURAMI (OSPHRONEMUS GOURAMY)

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Farida . ◽  
Eka Indah Raharjo ◽  
Arnis Maylinda Sari
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Palm Kernel ◽  
Specific Weight ◽  
Feed Conversion ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Fermentation Residue ◽  
Average Average

ABSTRAKPenelitian bertujuan untuk mengetahui penggunaan fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit dalam pakan buatan.Penelitian menggunakan Rancangan Acak Lengkap (RAL) yang terdiri dari 4 perlakuan 3 ulangan.Susunan perlakuan adalah Perlakuan A : bungkil kelapa sawit 12%, Perlakuan B : fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit 15%, Perlakuan C : fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit 18%, Perlakuan D : fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit 21%. Penelitian ini dilakukan selama 60 hari untuk mengetahui laju pertumbuhan spesifikberat, laju pertumbuhan harianpanjang, konversi pakan, kelangsungan hidup dan kualitas air sebagai penunjang.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan pemberian pakan buatan dengan fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit menghasilkan respon yang baik terhadap pertumbuhan ikan gurami. Pemberian pakan buatan dengan fermentasi bungkil kelapa sawit 18% (perlakuan C), memberikan hasil terbaik dengan laju pertumbuhan dengan rata – rata laju pertumbuhan spesifik berat 1.502%, laju pertumbuhan harian panjang 4.06%, nilai konversi pakan rata – rata 3.48 dan kelangsungan hidup rata – rata 90%.Kata Kunci : Fermentasi Bungkil Kelapa Sawit, Ikan Gurami, Laju PertumbuhanThe study aims to determine the use of fermentation residue oil palm in artificial feed .Research using a completely randomized design ( CRD ), which consists of 4 treatment three replications.The composition of the treatment is the treatment  A : 12 % of palm oil cake , Treatment B : fermented palm oil cake 15 % , Treatment C : fermented palm oil cake 18 % , Treatment D : fermentation residue palm oil 21 %.This research was conducted for 60 days to determine the specific growth rate of heavy , long daily growth rate , feed conversion , survival and quality of water as a supporter.The results showed the artificial feeding with fermented palm cake to produce a good response to the growth of carp.Feeding artificially by fermentation cake palm oil 18 % ( treatment C ) , gives the best results with a growth rate with the average - average growth rate of the specific weight of 1.502 % daily growth rate long- 4:06 % , the value of feed conversion average - average 3:48 and median survival - average of 90 % .Keywords : Fermentation Palm Kernel Oil, Fish carp, Growth Rate

scholarly journals Pengaruh Nitrat (NO3) Terhadap Pertumbuhan Alami Eceng Gondok (Eichornia crassipes Solms.) Berdasarkan Biomassa Basah Di Danau Batur, Kintamani, Bali

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 215
Author(s):  
Lisa Rosalia Prayuda ◽  
I Wayan Arthana ◽  
Ayu Putu Wiweka Krisna Dewi
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Water Hyacinth ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Natural Growth ◽  
Initial Weight ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Natural Lakes ◽  
High Fertility Rate ◽  
Eichornia Crassipes

Batur Lake is one of the natural lakes in the province of Bali where the activity of fishing, agriculture, tourism and housing available. This study aims to determine the effect of nitrate relation to the natural growth of the water hyacinth (Eichornia crassipes). Increased water hyacinth biomass in Songan station is the highest among the three other stations (Batur, Buahan, and Trunyan). At the end of the study (day 42 ), water hyacinth biomass of Songan station increased by 338.2 % from the initial weight, while at another station the increase weight  ranges from 75 % -158 %. The highest daily growth rate in Trunyan station 3.68% / day, and the lowest in station Buahan which only reached 0.88% / day. At the Songan station where are many floating net which contribute to increase nitrate. There is a tendency of growth of water hyacinth faster at higher nitrate conditions. Nitrate conditions ranged from 0,35 to 0,62 m /l which shows that the waters of Batur Lake classified into waters that have a high fertility rate (eutrophic).

scholarly journals UTILIZATION OF MARINE FUNGAL Nodulisporium sp. KT29 METABOLITES TO IMPROVE THE PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE OF MARINE CULTURE OF WHITE SHRIMP

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 747
Author(s):  
Fazril Saputra ◽  
Dinamella Wahjuningrum ◽  
Kustiariyah Tarman ◽  
Irzal Effendi
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
Conversion Ratio ◽  
Feed Conversion Ratio ◽  
Production Performance ◽  
White Shrimp ◽  
Feed Conversion ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Marine Culture

<em>This study aimed to determine the best dose of administration of marine fungal <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Nodulisporium</span> sp. KT29 metabolites to improve the production performance of marine culture of white shrimp. The experimental animals used were white shrimp <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Litopenaeus</span> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">vannamei</span> post larvae 12, which were reared in the sea using floating net cages with a stocking density of 700 post larvae/net. Experimental design used was a completely randomized design consisting of 3 treatments with 3 replications; control without the administration of <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Nodulisporium</span> sp. KT29 metabolites, dietary of feed containing <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Nodulisporium</span> sp. KT29 metabolites at doses of 20 mL/kg of feed and 40 mL/kg of feed. The results showed that survival rate, absolute length growth, weight gain, daily growth rate and feed conversion ratio in treatment groups were better than the control (P&lt;0.05). The administration of marine fungal <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Nodulisporium</span> sp. KT29 metabolites at a dose of 20 mL/kg of feed could improve the production performance of white shrimp cultivated in the sea with survival rate, daily growth rate and feed conversion ratio: 66.61±6.94%, 20.18±0.39 %/day and 3.20±0.22, respectively.</em>

scholarly journals PENGARUH SUBSTITUSI TEPUNG IKAN DENGAN TEPUNG KEPALA IKAN PATIN (Pangasius sp) TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN IKAN LELE SANGKURIANG (Clarias sp)

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-140
Author(s):  
Yesica Manullang ◽  
Limin Santoso ◽  
Tarsim .
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Fish Meal ◽  
Daily Growth Rate ◽  
Daily Growth ◽  
Protein Retention ◽  
Weight Growth ◽  
Randomized Design ◽  
Absolute Growth ◽  
Completely Randomized Design ◽  
Difference Test

ABSTRACTThe research was conducted at the Aquaculture Laboratory, University of Lampung in May to July,  2018. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of substitution of fish meal with catfish head flour on the growth of catfish, and head flour dosage the best for catfish growth. The study used a Completely Randomized Design with 3 treatments and 3 replications A (100% fish meal), B (70% fish meal and 30% catfish flour), and C (40% fish meal and 60% catfish flour). Parameters observed included absolute growth, daily growth rate, protein retention, feed convertion ratio (FCR), survival rate (SR), and supporting parameters that is feed cost and water quality. The data obtained were analyzed by variance and continued with smallest real difference test with a 95% confidence level. The results showed that the proportion of catfish head flour in artificial feed had an effect on absolute weight growth and daily growth rate (P, 0.001). The proportion of the use of 30% starch in the feed of catfish has a real influence on absolute growth (40.25 ± 5.67 g), and daily growth rate (0.67 ± 0.09 g/day).Keywords : Catfish, catfish head waste, substitution, feed, growth

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