scholarly journals An adapted neural-fuzzy inference system model using preprocessed balance data to improve the predictive accuracy of warfarin maintenance dosing in patients after heart valve replacement

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhi-Chun Gu ◽  
Shou-Rui Huang ◽  
Dong Li ◽  
Qin Zhou ◽  
Jing Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
External Validation ◽  
High Dose ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Dose Warfarin ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Balanced Model ◽  
Validation Set

Abstract Background Tailoring warfarin use poses a challenge for physicians and pharmacists due to its narrow therapeutic window and huge inter-individual variability. This study aimed to create an adapted neural-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model using preprocessed balance data to improve the predictive accuracy of warfarin maintenance dosing in Chinese patients undergoing heart valve replacement (HVR). Methods This retrospective study enrolled patients who underwent HVR between June 1, 2012 and June 1, 2016 from 35 centers in China. The primary outcomes were the mean difference between predicted warfarin dose by ANFIS models and actual dose, and the models’ predictive accuracy, including the ideal predicted percentage, the mean absolute error (MAE), and the mean squared error (MSE). The eligible cases were divided into training, internal validation, and external validation groups. We explored input variables by univariate analysis of a general liner model and created two ANFIS models using imbalanced and balanced training sets. We finally compared the primary outcomes between the imbalanced and balanced ANFIS models in both internal and external validation sets. Stratified analyses were conducted across warfarin doses (low, medium, and high doses). Results A total of 15,108 patients were included and grouped as follows: 12,086 in the imbalanced training set; 2,820 in the balanced training set; 1,511 in the internal validation set; and 1,511 in the external validation set. Eight variables were explored as predictors related to warfarin maintenance doses, and imbalanced and balanced ANFIS models with multi-fuzzy rules were developed. The results showed a low mean difference between predicted and actual doses (< 0.3 mg/d for each model) and an accurate prediction property in both the imbalanced model (ideal prediction percentage: 74.39–78.16%, MAE: 0.37 mg/daily, MSE: 0.39 mg/daily) and the balanced model (ideal prediction percentage: 73.46–75.31%, MAE: 0.42 mg/daily; MSE, 0.43 mg/daily). Compared to the imbalanced model, the balanced model had a significantly higher prediction accuracy in the low-dose (14.46% vs. 3.01%; P < 0.001) and the high-dose warfarin groups (34.71% vs. 23.14%; P = 0.047). The results from the external validation cohort confirmed this finding. Conclusions The ANFIS model can accurately predict the warfarin maintenance dose in patients after HVR. Through data preprocessing, the balanced model contributed to improved prediction ability in the low- and high-dose warfarin groups.

scholarly journals Kajian Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) Dalam Memprediksi Penerimaan Mahasiswa Baru Pada Universitas Buana Perjuangan Karawang

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-54
Author(s):  
Tatang Rohana Cucu
Keyword(s):  
Error Rate ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Hybrid Technique ◽  
Mean Absolute Deviation ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
New Students ◽  
The Mean

Abstract - The process of admitting new students is an annual routine activity that occurs in a university. This activity is the starting point of the process of searching for prospective new students who meet the criteria expected by the college. One of the colleges that holds new student admissions every year is Buana Perjuangan University, Karawang. There have been several studies that have been conducted on predictions of new students by other researchers, but the results have not been very satisfying, especially problems with the level of accuracy and error. Research on ANFIS studies to predict new students as a solution to the problem of accuracy. This study uses two ANFIS models, namely Backpropagation and Hybrid techniques. The application of the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model in the predictions of new students at Buana Perjuangan University, Karawang was successful. Based on the results of training, the Backpropagation technique has an error rate of 0.0394 and the Hybrid technique has an error rate of 0.0662. Based on the predictive accuracy value that has been done, the Backpropagation technique has an accuracy of 4.8 for the value of Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and 0.156364623 for the value of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Meanwhile, based on the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) value, the Backpropagation technique has a value of 0.5 and 0.09516671 for the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. So it can be concluded that the Hybrid technique has a better level of accuracy than the Backpropation technique in predicting the number of new students at the University of Buana Perjuangan Karawang.   Keywords: ANFIS, Backpropagation, Hybrid, Prediction

scholarly journals QSAR Prediction Model to Search for Compounds with Selective Cytotoxicity Against Oral Cell Cancer

Medicines ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junko Nagai ◽  
Mai Imamura ◽  
Hiroshi Sakagami ◽  
Yoshihiro Uesawa
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Anticancer Drugs ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Cell Cancer ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Selective Toxicity ◽  
Normal Cells ◽  
Validation Set ◽  
Structure Toxicity Relationship ◽  
Toxicity Relationship

Background: Anticancer drugs often have strong toxicity against tumours and normal cells. Some natural products demonstrate high tumour specificity. We have previously reported the cytotoxic activity and tumour specificity of various chemical compounds. In this study, we constructed a database of previously reported compound data and predictive models to screen a new anticancer drug. Methods: We collected compound data from our previous studies and built a database for analysis. Using this database, we constructed models that could predict cytotoxicity and tumour specificity using random forest method. The prediction performance was evaluated using an external validation set. Results: A total of 494 compounds were collected, and these activities and chemical structure data were merged as database for analysis. The structure-toxicity relationship prediction model showed higher prediction accuracy than the tumour selectivity prediction model. Descriptors with high contribution differed for tumour and normal cells. Conclusions: Further study is required to construct a tumour selective toxicity prediction model with higher predictive accuracy. Such a model is expected to contribute to the screening of candidate compounds for new anticancer drugs.

Multi-Institutional Validation of a New Renal Cancer–Specific Survival Nomogram

2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 1316-1322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre I. Karakiewicz ◽  
Alberto Briganti ◽  
Felix K.-H. Chun ◽  
Quoc-Dien Trinh ◽  
Paul Perrotte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renal Cancer ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Fuhrman Grade ◽  
Histologic Subtype ◽  
Cancer Specific Mortality

Purpose We tested the hypothesis that the prediction of renal cancer–specific survival can be improved if traditional predictor variables are used within a prognostic nomogram. Patients and Methods Two cohorts of patients treated with either radical or partial nephrectomy for renal cortical tumors were used: one (n = 2,530) for nomogram development and for internal validation (200 bootstrap resamples), and a second (n = 1,422) for external validation. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses modeled the 2002 TNM stages, tumor size, Fuhrman grade, histologic subtype, local symptoms, age, and sex. The accuracy of the nomogram was compared with an established staging scheme. Results Cancer-specific mortality was observed in 598 (23.6%) patients, whereas 200 (7.9%) died as a result of other causes. Follow-up ranged from 0.1 to 286 months (median, 38.8 months). External validation of the nomogram at 1, 2, 5, and 10 years after nephrectomy revealed predictive accuracy of 87.8%, 89.2%, 86.7%, and 88.8%, respectively. Conversely, the alternative staging scheme predicting at 2 and 5 years was less accurate, as evidenced by 86.1% (P = .006) and 83.9% (P = .02) estimates. Conclusion The new nomogram is more contemporary, provides predictions that reach further in time and, compared with its alternative, which predicts at 2 and 5 years, generates 3.1% and 2.8% more accurate predictions, respectively.

scholarly journals Time Series Prediction of Electricity Demand Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amevi Acakpovi ◽  
Alfred Tettey Ternor ◽  
Nana Yaw Asabere ◽  
Patrick Adjei ◽  
Abdul-Shakud Iddrisu
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy

This paper is concerned with the reliable prediction of electricity demands using the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The need for electricity demand prediction is fundamental and vital for power resource planning and monitoring. A dataset of electricity demands covering the period of 2003 to 2018 was collected from the Electricity Distribution Company of Ghana, covering three urban areas namely Mallam, Achimota, and Ga East, all in Ghana. The dataset was divided into two parts: one part covering a period of 0 to 500 hours was used for training of the ANFIS algorithm while the second part was used for validation. Three scenarios were considered for the simulation exercise that was done with the MATLAB software. Scenario one considered four inputs sampled data, scenario two considered an additional input making it 5, and scenario 3 was similar to scenario 1 with the exception of the number of membership functions that increased from 2 to 3. The performance of the ANFIS algorithm was assessed by comparing its predictions with other three forecast models namely Support Vector Regression (SVR), Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM), and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Findings revealed that the ANFIS algorithm can perform the prediction accurately, the ANFIS algorithm converges faster with an increase in the data used for training, and increasing the membership function resulted in overfitting of data which adversely affected the RMSE values. Comparison of the ANFIS results to other previously used methods of predicting electricity demands including SVR, LS-SVM, and ARIMA revealed that there is merit to the potentials of the ANFIS algorithm for improved predictive accuracy while relying on a quality data for training and reliable setting of tuning parameters.

scholarly journals Use of serum biomarkers in staging of canine hepatic fibrosis

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 665-673 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maud Menard ◽  
Alexis Lecoindre ◽  
Jean-Luc Cadoré ◽  
Michèle Chevallier ◽  
Aurélie Pagnon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liver Biopsy ◽  
Hepatic Fibrosis ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Gamma Glutamyl Transferase ◽  
Training Set ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Validation Set ◽  
Glutamyl Transferase

Accurate staging of hepatic fibrosis (HF) is important for treatment and prognosis of canine chronic hepatitis. HF scores are used in human medicine to indirectly stage and monitor HF, decreasing the need for liver biopsy. We developed a canine HF score to screen for moderate or greater HF. We included 96 dogs in our study, including 5 healthy dogs. A liver biopsy for histologic examination and a biochemistry profile were performed on all dogs. The dogs were randomly split into a training set of 58 dogs and a validation set of 38 dogs. A HF score that included alanine aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, total bilirubin, potassium, and gamma-glutamyl transferase was developed in the training set. Model performance was confirmed using the internal validation set, and was similar to the performance in the training set. The overall sensitivity and specificity for the study group were 80% and 70% respectively, with an area under the curve of 0.80 (0.71–0.90). This HF score could be used for indirect diagnosis of canine HF when biochemistry panels are performed on the Konelab 30i (Thermo Scientific), using reagents as in our study. External validation is required to determine if the score is sufficiently robust to utilize biochemical results measured in other laboratories with different instruments and methodologies.

Investigation of trap efficiency of retention dams

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 450-459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Parsaie ◽  
Samad Ememgholizadeh ◽  
Amir Hamzeh Haghiabi ◽  
Amir Moradinejad
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Kernel Functions ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Trap Efficiency ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Longitudinal Slope ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Abstract In this paper, the trap efficiency (TE) of retention dams was investigated using laboratory experiments. To map the relation between TE and involved parameters, artificial intelligence (AI) methods including artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and support vector machine (SVM) were utilized. Results of experiments indicated that the range of TE varies between 30 and 98%; hence, this structure can be recommended to control sediment transport in watershed management plans. Experimental results showed that by increasing the longitudinal slope of streams, TE decreases. This finding was observed for Vf/Vs parameter, as well. By increasing the mean diameter grain size (D50) and specific gravity of sediments (Gs), TE increases. Results of all applied AI models demonstrated that all of them have suitable performance; however, the minimum data dispersivity was observed in SVM outcomes. It is notable that the best performance of transfer, membership and kernel functions were related to tansig, gaussmf and radial basis function (RBF) for ANN, SVM and ANFIS, respectively.

scholarly journals Fuzzy Inference System Mamdani dan the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) untuk Prediksi Permintaan Dompet Pulsa pada XL Axiata Depok

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Mochammad Bagoes Satria Junianto
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Inference System ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Sample Data ◽  
The Mean

Kemajuan perkembangan teknologi informasi pada era globalisasi sekarang ini sangat pesat; hal ini menuntut setiap perusahaan untuk dapat saling bersaing dalam dunia bisnis yang dinamis dan penuh persaingan. Pada proses manjaemen permintaan dompet pulsa di XL Axiata cabang Depok memerlukan peramalan yang cukup matang agar dompet pulsa yang diminta kepada pusat tidak berlebihan atau tidak terlalu sedikit untuk menjaga kestabilan antara penjualan; persediaan dan jumlah permintaan. Untuk dapat melakukan peramalan yang lebih akurat; maka diperlukan suatu metode yang dapat menghitung ketidakpastian yang terjadi; dalam hal ini metode yang digunakan adalah dengan menggunakan Fuzzy inference system metode Mamdani untuk meramalkan jumlah permintaan dompet pulsa berdasarkan jumlah penjualan dan persediaan. Dengan 12 sample data untuk masing-masing sistem satuam yang digunakan hasil yang didapatkan yaitu dengan menggunakan Fuzzy inference system metode mamdani MAPE yang didapat sebesar 18;56% untuk Dompul XL 5k; 5;38% untuk Dompul XL 10k dan 14;2% untuk Dompul XL Rupiah.

scholarly journals Development and Validation of a Scoring System for Early Diagnosis of Malignant Pleural Effusion Based on a Nomogram

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aihua Wu ◽  
Zhigang Liang ◽  
Songbo Yuan ◽  
Shanshan Wang ◽  
Weidong Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pleural Effusion ◽  
Diagnostic Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Malignant Pleural Effusion ◽  
Diagnostic Performance ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Training Set ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Validation Set

BackgroundThe diagnostic value of clinical and laboratory features to differentiate between malignant pleural effusion (MPE) and benign pleural effusion (BPE) has not yet been established.ObjectivesThe present study aimed to develop and validate the diagnostic accuracy of a scoring system based on a nomogram to distinguish MPE from BPE.MethodsA total of 1,239 eligible patients with PE were recruited in this study and randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set at a ratio of 7:3. Logistic regression analysis was performed in the training set, and a nomogram was developed using selected predictors. The diagnostic accuracy of an innovative scoring system based on the nomogram was established and validated in the training, internal validation, and external validation sets (n = 217). The discriminatory power and the calibration and clinical values of the prediction model were evaluated.ResultsSeven variables [effusion carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), effusion adenosine deaminase (ADA), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), PE/serum CEA ratio (CEA ratio), effusion carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), effusion cytokeratin 19 fragment (CYFRA 21-1), and serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH)/effusion ADA ratio (cancer ratio, CR)] were validated and used to develop a nomogram. The prediction model showed both good discrimination and calibration capabilities for all sets. A scoring system was established based on the nomogram scores to distinguish MPE from BPE. The scoring system showed favorable diagnostic performance in the training set [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.955, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.942–0.968], the internal validation set (AUC = 0.952, 95% CI = 0.932–0.973), and the external validation set (AUC = 0.973, 95% CI = 0.956–0.990). In addition, the scoring system achieved satisfactory discriminative abilities at separating lung cancer-associated MPE from tuberculous pleurisy effusion (TPE) in the combined training and validation sets.ConclusionsThe present study developed and validated a scoring system based on seven parameters. The scoring system exhibited a reliable diagnostic performance in distinguishing MPE from BPE and might guide clinical decision-making.

Multilayer Optimization Approach for Fuzzy Systems

2011 ◽  
pp. 1121-1129
Author(s):  
Ivan N. Silva ◽  
Rogerio A. Flauzino
Keyword(s):  
Energy Function ◽  
Fuzzy Inference System ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Fuzzy Inference Systems ◽  
Energy Functions ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Inference Systems

The design of fuzzy inference systems comes along with several decisions taken by the designers since is necessary to determine, in a coherent way, the number of membership functions for the inputs and outputs, and also the specification of the fuzzy rules set of the system, besides defining the strategies of rules aggregation and defuzzification of output sets. The need to develop systematic procedures to assist the designers has been wide because the trial and error technique is the unique often available (Figueiredo & Gomide, 1997). In general terms, for applications involving system identification and fuzzy modeling, it is convenient to use energy functions that express the error between the desired results and those provided by the fuzzy system. An example is the use of the mean squared error or normalized mean squared error as energy functions. In the context of systems identification, besides the mean squared error, data regularization indicators can be added to the energy function in order to improve the system response in presence of noises (from training data) (Guillaume, 2001). In the absence of a tuning set, such as happens in parameters adjustment of a process controller, the energy function can be defined by functions that consider the desired requirements of a particular design (Wan, Hirasawa, Hu & Murata, 2001), i.e., maximum overshoot signal, setting time, rise time, undamped natural frequency, etc. From this point of view, this article presents a new methodology based on error backpropagation for the adjustment of fuzzy inference systems, which can be then designed as a three layers model. Each one of these layers represents the tasks performed by the fuzzy inference system such as fuzzification, fuzzy rules inference and defuzzification. The adjustment procedure proposed in this article is performed through the adaptation of its free parameters, from each one of these layers, in order to minimize the energy function previously specified. In principle, the adjustment can be made layer by layer separately. The operational differences associated with each layer, where the parameters adjustment of a layer does not influence the performance of other, allow single adjustment of each layer. Thus, the routine of fuzzy inference system tuning acquires a larger flexibility when compared to the training process used in artificial neural networks. This methodology is interesting, not only for the results presented and obtained through computer simulations, but also for its generality concerning to the kind of fuzzy inference system used. Therefore, such methodology is expandable either to the Mandani architecture or also to that suggested by Takagi-Sugeno.

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