Multi-Institutional Validation of a New Renal Cancer–Specific Survival Nomogram

2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 1316-1322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre I. Karakiewicz ◽  
Alberto Briganti ◽  
Felix K.-H. Chun ◽  
Quoc-Dien Trinh ◽  
Paul Perrotte ◽  
...  

Purpose We tested the hypothesis that the prediction of renal cancer–specific survival can be improved if traditional predictor variables are used within a prognostic nomogram. Patients and Methods Two cohorts of patients treated with either radical or partial nephrectomy for renal cortical tumors were used: one (n = 2,530) for nomogram development and for internal validation (200 bootstrap resamples), and a second (n = 1,422) for external validation. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses modeled the 2002 TNM stages, tumor size, Fuhrman grade, histologic subtype, local symptoms, age, and sex. The accuracy of the nomogram was compared with an established staging scheme. Results Cancer-specific mortality was observed in 598 (23.6%) patients, whereas 200 (7.9%) died as a result of other causes. Follow-up ranged from 0.1 to 286 months (median, 38.8 months). External validation of the nomogram at 1, 2, 5, and 10 years after nephrectomy revealed predictive accuracy of 87.8%, 89.2%, 86.7%, and 88.8%, respectively. Conversely, the alternative staging scheme predicting at 2 and 5 years was less accurate, as evidenced by 86.1% (P = .006) and 83.9% (P = .02) estimates. Conclusion The new nomogram is more contemporary, provides predictions that reach further in time and, compared with its alternative, which predicts at 2 and 5 years, generates 3.1% and 2.8% more accurate predictions, respectively.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng Wan ◽  
Bing Wang ◽  
Xin Miao ◽  
Zhida Chen ◽  
Sisi Huang ◽  
...  

Abstract PurposeDue to lack of proper diagnostic tools, we aimed to establish a nomogram for Mixed Medullary-Follicular Thyroid (MMFTC) and comparison with AJCC staging in prognosis. MethodsData regarding 203 patients with MMFTC (ICD-O-3 codes 8346, 8347) between 2000 and 2016 from The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. X-tile program was used to evaluate the optimal cut-off values for continuous variables. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed with the Cox proportional hazards regression model to analyze the independent factors related to prognosis. Construct cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed. The resulting values were compared with the nomogram and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging using C-index, verification curve, internal validation and decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsThe CSS nomogram presented the prognostic factors including year of diagnosis (p = 0.045), tumor size (p = 0.003), extrathyroidal extension (p = 0.009) and pN stage (p = 0.008), while the OS nomogram showed the prognosis factors including year of diagnosis (p = 0.011), age at diagnosis (p = 0.010), tumor size (p = 0.013), extrathyroidal extension (p = 0.008), pT2 stage (p = 0.021) and Radioactive implants or Radioisotopes (p = 0.031).The C-index, verification curve, internal validation and DCA for these nomograms showed better performance in comparisons with the AJCC staging.ConclusionThe more appropriate and efficient therapeutic strategies were showed by the two nomograms for clinical prediction of OS and CSS in MMFTC.


2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 321 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Christopher Doiron ◽  
Melanie Jaeger ◽  
Christopher M. Booth ◽  
Xuejiao Wei ◽  
D. Robert Siemens

Introduction: Thoracic epidural analgesia (TEA) is commonly used to manage postoperative pain and facilitate early mobilization after major intra-abdominal surgery. Evidence also suggests that regional anesthesia/analgesia may be associated with improved survival after cancer surgery. Here, we describe factors associated with TEA at the time of radical cystectomy (RC) for bladder cancer and its association with both short- and long-term outcomes in routine clinical practice.Methods: All patients undergoing RC in the province of Ontario between 2004 and 2008 were identified using the Ontario Cancer Registry (OCR). Modified Poisson regression was used to describe factors associated with epidural use, while a Cox proportional hazards model describes associations between survival and TEA use.Results: Over the five-year study period, 1628 patients were identified as receiving RC, 54% (n=887) of whom received TEA. Greater anesthesiologist volume (lowest volume providers relative risk [RR] 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75‒0.96) and male sex (female sex RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.79‒0.99) were independently associated with greater use of TEA. TEA use was not associated with improved short-term outcomes. In multivariable analysis, TEA was not associated with cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio [HR] 1.02, 95% CI 0.87‒1.19; p=0.804) or overall survival (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.80‒1.03; p=0.136).Conclusions: In routine clinical practice, 54% of RC patients received TEA and its use was associated with anesthesiologist provider volume. After controlling for patient, disease and provider variables, we were unable to demonstrate any effect on either short- or long-term outcomes at the time of RC.


2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie M. DeGroot ◽  
Michael D. Brundage ◽  
Miu Lam ◽  
Susan L. Rohland ◽  
Jeremy Heaton ◽  
...  

Objective: We compared the cause-specific survival of patientswho received radiotherapy to those who received surgery for cureof their prostate cancer using a number of design and analytic stepsto mitigate confounding by indication.Methods: This was a case-cohort study of 2213 patients in theOntario Cancer Registry diagnosed between 1990 and 1998 whowere either treatment candidates or received curative radiotherapyor surgery. Cases included patients who died of prostate cancerwithin 10 years. The study population was restricted to those whowere candidates for either treatment (radiotherapy or surgery)based on disease severity (low and intermediate risk using theGenitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada risk groups). Themedian follow-up was 51 months. Cause-specific survival wasanalyzed using Cox-proportional hazards regression with casecohortvariance adjustment.Results from intent-to-treat analyseswere compared to results by treatment received.Results: Adjusted hazard ratios for risk of prostate cancer death forradiotherapy compared to surgery for the entire study populationwere 1.62 (95%CI 1.00-2.61) and 2.02 (1.19-3.43) analyzing byintent-to-treat and treatment received, respectively. Intent-to-treathazard ratios for the low- and intermediate-risk groups were 0.87(0.28-2.76) and 1.57 (0.95-2.61), respectively.Conclusion: Overall results were driven by the finding in the intermediate-risk group, which indicated that radiotherapy was not aseffective as surgery in this group. Confirmation was needed withspecial attention paid to risk stratification and the impact of morecontemporary delivery of these treatment options.


Blood ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 128 (22) ◽  
pp. 5358-5358
Author(s):  
Abrahão Elias Hallack Neto ◽  
Graziela Toledo Costa Mayrink ◽  
Luciano J. Costa ◽  
Kelli Borges dos Santos

Abstract Introduction: The association between classical Hodgkin's Lymphoma (cHL) and tumor Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) status is well established. However, the presence of EBV within Hodgkin/Reed-Sternberg (HRS) cells and its prognosis remains controversial, with conflicting findings from studies of various regions of the world. It is considered essential to deepen the understanding of the pathogenic role of EBV in cHL and its impact in prognosis. Methods: We assessed the correlation between EBV presence in HRS and outcomes in a cohort of Brazilian patients with cHL. EBV positivity was determined by in situ hybridization (ISH) for EBV-encoded RNA (EBER) and immunohistochemistry (IMH) for viral latent membrane protein (LMP-1). All cases were histologically confirmed by an expert hematopathologist who also performed the assays for EBV identification. We examined the prognostic impact of EBV status in 29 patients with cHL. The prognostic factors by IPS (International Prognostic Score) for patients with advanced stage and the risk factors by GHSG (German Hodgkin Study Group) for patients with limited stage were correlated with EBV status tumor cells. For associations between the presence of EBV and other categorical variables, we applied Chi-square or Fisher's exact tests. For describe the effect size (ES) measures for chi-square, we used Cramér's V (V) and odds ratios (OR) with the respective 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs). To evaluate the correlation between all methods of identification of EBV status and among evaluators in histological classification, we applied the Kappa test (K), which measures the degree of agreement these assessments. Differences in OS (overall survival) and EFS (event-free survival) Kaplan-Meier survival curves between EBV-positive and EBV-negative patients were compared statistically using the log-rank test. To evaluate the impact of EBV status on event-free survival controlling for prognostic factors and unfavorable risks, we applied Cox proportional hazards regression to determine hazards ratios (HR) and associated the respective 95% CIs. Multivariate analyses included variables significant at p ≤ 0.15 in univariate models. Results: The mean age at diagnosis was 33 years. Sixty-five percent of the patients had the Nodular Sclerosis histologic subtype and 62,1% had Ann Arbor stage I or II disease at diagnosis. According to GHSG, 88,3% of early-stage patients were classified with unfavorable risk (at least one risk factor) at diagnosis. Compared to advanced-stage patients, 81,9% were considered with favorable IPS (< 4 prognostic factors) at diagnosis. HRS cells were EBV-positive in 37.9% of cases. EBV-positive cHL cases were more frequent in patients ≥ 45 years (71,4% vs. 27,3%, p =0,07). Mixed cellularity (MC) histology subtype was more common in EBV-related tumor cells (p= 0,02) and its effect-size index was medium. The correlation between all methods of identification of EBV status was 96,5% (p< 0,001; K=0.93). The correlation among evaluators in histological classification was 89,6% (p< 0,001; K=0.79). In univariate analysis, age, stage, histologic subtype, nodal involvement, extranodal disease, sex, bulky disease, laboratory data were not associated with adverse EFS (p>0,05). EBV-positive HL seemed to have better EFS than EBV-negative HL (log-rank test, p = 0,07). Cox proportional hazards model confirmed that EBV-positive tumor status and prognosis factors did not impact HL outcome. Conclusions: Despite EBV status in HRS cells not being associated with adverse prognostic factors and not influencing the overall and event-free survivals, the presence of EBV was linked to MC subtype, showing possible implication in histological subtype and worse prognosis. Disclosures Costa: Sanofi: Honoraria, Research Funding.


2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 3542-3542
Author(s):  
Yvonne Sada ◽  
Zhigang Duan ◽  
Hashem El-Serag ◽  
Jessica Davila

3542 Background: Stage IV colon cancer treatment may include resection of the primary tumor. Current use of primary tumor surgery (PTS) in clinical practice is unknown. This study examined utilization and determinants of PTS and evaluated its effect on survival. Methods: Using national Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry data, stage IV colon cancer patients diagnosed from 1998-2008 were identified. Data on demographics, PTS, and tumor features were collected. Temporal changes in receipt of PTS were examined over 3 periods (1998-2000, 2001-2004, 2005-2008). Multiple logistic regression was used to identify significant determinants of PTS. 1- and 3-year cancer-specific survival was calculated in PTS and non-PTS patients. Cox proportional hazards models examined the effect of PTS on mortality risk. Results: 16,029 patients were identified. Median age was 69 (IQR: 57-78), and 50% were male. Approximately 67% of patients received PTS. Receipt of PTS significantly declined from 72% in 1998-2000 to 68% in 2001-2004, and 63% in 2005-2008 (p<0.01). Results from the logistic regression analysis showed that patients who were younger, white, married, had right sided cancer and higher tumor grade were more likely to receive PTS (all p<0.01). The 1- and 3-year survival was higher in patients who received PTS compared with those who did not (1-year: 55% (95% CI: 54-56) vs. 24% (95% CI: 23-26); 3-year: 19% (95% CI: 19-20) vs. 4% (95%CI: 3.4-4.9)). Adjusted for demographics and tumor features, risk of mortality was 54% (HR=0.46; 95% CI: 0.44-0.48) lower in patients who received PTS than those without PTS. Recent year of diagnosis (HR=0.88; 95% CI: 0.75-0.80) and being married (HR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.86-0.95) were associated with lower mortality. Older age (HR=1.48; 95% CI: 1.39-1.56), black race (HR=1.09; 95% CI: 1.03-1.15), right sided cancer (HR=1.21; 95% CI: 1.17-1.26), and poorly differentiated tumors (HR= 1.62; 95% CI: 1.46-1.80) were associated with increased mortality. Conclusions: PTS utilization for stage IV colon cancer has significantly declined, yet survival was higher in patients who received PTS. However, these findings are limited by the absence of co-morbidity and chemotherapy data.


2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 618-618
Author(s):  
Chi Lin ◽  
Christopher K Brown ◽  
Charles Arthur Enke ◽  
Fausto R. Loberiza

618 Background: Gastrointestinal melanoma (GIM) is a rare disease. The objective of this study is to compare the overall survival (OS), cancer specific survival (CSS) and prognostic factors of GIM to those of skin melanoma (SKM) using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. Methods: Patients diagnosed with invasive GIM (406) and SKM (173,622) between 1973 and 2008 were identified from the SEER database. Factors analyzed included age (18-40/41-60/61-100), gender, race (White/nonwhite), marital status, stage (localized/regional/distant), year of diagnosis (1973-87/1988-97/1998-2008), and type of treatment (radiotherapy (RT)/surgery). OS and CSS were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis examined what factors were prognostic of survival. Results: The median age was 69 and 57 for patients with GIM and SKM, respectively. The GIM group was older with more advanced-stage cancer than the SKM group. Surgery was performed on 85% and 95%, while RT was received by 18% and 2% of GIM and SKM patients, respectively. The GIM group had a median OS and CSS of 15 and 16 months, respectively, while the SKM group had a median OS of 283 months and did not reach a median CSS. Cox analysis showed that SKM had significantly lower risk of total and cancer-specific mortality compared to GIM (Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.40, p<0.0001) and (HR 0.34, p<0.0001). Factors associated with improved OS and CSS in SKM included: age ≤60, female gender, non-white race, early stage, being married, more recent diagnosis, undergoing surgery and not receiving RT. Factors associated with improved OS and CSS in GIM included: age ≤60, early stage, non-white race and undergoing surgery. Subgroup analysis on patients who underwent surgery showed that lymph node status was the only prognostic factor for GIM, while all of the previously identified prognostic factors except for race were associated with OS and CSS for SKM. Conclusions: Outcomes of patients with GIM are inferior to those with SKM. The melanomas in these two sites also have different prognostic factors. Future studies should explore the reasons behind these differences to improve treatment outcomes.


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 495-495
Author(s):  
Natalie J. Miller ◽  
Ali Raza Khaki ◽  
Leonidas Nikolaos Diamantopoulos ◽  
Mehmet Asim Bilen ◽  
Victor Sacristan Santos ◽  
...  

495 Background: Urinary tract cancer can be pure urothelial carcinoma (PUC) or variant UC (VUC, defined here as pure non-UC or mixed UC + non-UC); VUC often has a worse prognosis. Little is known about outcomes for patients (pts) with VUC receiving ICI. We hypothesized that VUC does not compromise ICI efficacy in pts with aUC. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study across 18 institutions. Demographic, clinicopathologic, treatment and outcomes data was collected for pts with aUC who received ICI. Pts were stratified to PUC vs VUC; VUC was further divided by histologic subtype, i.e. squamous, neuroendocrine (NE), etc. We compared overall response rate (ORR) using logistic regression, progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards; p<0.05 was significant. Results: 519 consecutive pts were identified; 405, 414 and 411 included in ORR, OS and PFS analyses, respectively. Demographics included mean age 69, 27% female, 66% ever smokers, 15% upper tract disease, 54% with extirpative surgery. ORR to ICI between pts with PUC and VUC was comparable (both 28%, p=0.86) without significant differences for individual subtypes vs PUC. Median OS for pts with PUC was 11.0 vs 9.9 mo for VUC (p=0.45), but only 3.7 mo for those with NE features (HR=3.01 [95% CI 1.63-5.57] vs PUC, p<0.001). Median PFS was 4.1 vs 5.2 mo for PUC vs VUC (p=0.46) and 2.8 mo for NE (HR=1.85 [95% CI 0.94-3.61] vs PUC, p=0.07). Conclusions: ORR to ICI and OS were comparable across histologic types; however, OS was shorter for tumors with NE features. VUC should not exclude pts from receiving ICI in routine practice and clinical trials.[Table: see text]


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carol A. Parise ◽  
Vincent Caggiano

Introduction. ER, PR, and HER2 are routinely available in breast cancer specimens. The purpose of this study is to contrast breast cancer-specific survival for the eight ER/PR/HER2 subtypes with survival of an immunohistochemical surrogate for the molecular subtype based on the ER/PR/HER2 subtypes and tumor grade.Methods. We identified 123,780 cases of stages 1–3 primary female invasive breast cancer from California Cancer Registry. The surrogate classification was derived using ER/PR/HER2 and tumor grade. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards modeling were used to assess differences in survival and risk of mortality for the ER/PR/HER2 subtypes and surrogate classification within each stage.Results. The luminal B/HER2− surrogate classification had a higher risk of mortality than the luminal B/HER2+ for all stages of disease. There was no difference in risk of mortality between the ER+/PR+/HER2− and ER+/PR+/HER2+ in stage 3. With one exception in stage 3, the ER-negative subtypes all had an increased risk of mortality when compared with the ER-positive subtypes.Conclusions. Assessment of survival using ER/PR/HER2 illustrates the heterogeneity of HER2+ subtypes. The surrogate classification provides clear separation in survival and adjusted mortality but underestimates the wide variability within the subtypes that make up the classification.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinyue Li ◽  
Jing Yang

Abstract Background: To investigate the relationship between tumour deposits(TDs) with the clinicopathological characteristics,prognosis of gastric cancer and tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes( TILs).Methods: The pathological findings of 369 patients with gastric cancer were retrospectively analysed to observe the expression of TDs, and the levels of stromal TILs . The relationships between TDs status, clinicopathological characteristics, and TILs infiltration level were compared using the chi-square test, and rank data were tested using the rank sum test. Kaplan-Meier was used for survival analysis, and the log-rank test was used to determine the differences in survival curves between groups. The prognostic value of TDs was assessed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.Results: TDs were significantly associated with sex, Lymphovascular invasion, Perineural invasion, pathological TNM stage, and clinical stage (all P<0.05). TILs levels were lower in TDs(+) group and higher in TDs(-) group. TDs(+) group had poor Disease-free survival, cancer-specific survival , and overall survival as compared with TDs(-) groups.Conclusions: TDs is negatively correlated with TILs , and TDs+ was an Independent predictors of the prognosis of gastric cancer.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhi-Chun Gu ◽  
Shou-Rui Huang ◽  
Dong Li ◽  
Qin Zhou ◽  
Jing Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Tailoring warfarin use poses a challenge for physicians and pharmacists due to its narrow therapeutic window and huge inter-individual variability. This study aimed to create an adapted neural-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model using preprocessed balance data to improve the predictive accuracy of warfarin maintenance dosing in Chinese patients undergoing heart valve replacement (HVR). Methods This retrospective study enrolled patients who underwent HVR between June 1, 2012 and June 1, 2016 from 35 centers in China. The primary outcomes were the mean difference between predicted warfarin dose by ANFIS models and actual dose, and the models’ predictive accuracy, including the ideal predicted percentage, the mean absolute error (MAE), and the mean squared error (MSE). The eligible cases were divided into training, internal validation, and external validation groups. We explored input variables by univariate analysis of a general liner model and created two ANFIS models using imbalanced and balanced training sets. We finally compared the primary outcomes between the imbalanced and balanced ANFIS models in both internal and external validation sets. Stratified analyses were conducted across warfarin doses (low, medium, and high doses). Results A total of 15,108 patients were included and grouped as follows: 12,086 in the imbalanced training set; 2,820 in the balanced training set; 1,511 in the internal validation set; and 1,511 in the external validation set. Eight variables were explored as predictors related to warfarin maintenance doses, and imbalanced and balanced ANFIS models with multi-fuzzy rules were developed. The results showed a low mean difference between predicted and actual doses (< 0.3 mg/d for each model) and an accurate prediction property in both the imbalanced model (ideal prediction percentage: 74.39–78.16%, MAE: 0.37 mg/daily, MSE: 0.39 mg/daily) and the balanced model (ideal prediction percentage: 73.46–75.31%, MAE: 0.42 mg/daily; MSE, 0.43 mg/daily). Compared to the imbalanced model, the balanced model had a significantly higher prediction accuracy in the low-dose (14.46% vs. 3.01%; P < 0.001) and the high-dose warfarin groups (34.71% vs. 23.14%; P = 0.047). The results from the external validation cohort confirmed this finding. Conclusions The ANFIS model can accurately predict the warfarin maintenance dose in patients after HVR. Through data preprocessing, the balanced model contributed to improved prediction ability in the low- and high-dose warfarin groups.


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