scholarly journals Short- and long-term mortality prediction in critically ill subjects: a cohort study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Szymon Czajka ◽  
Katarzyna Ziębińska ◽  
Konstanty Marczenko ◽  
Barbara Posmyk ◽  
Anna Szczepańska ◽  
...  

Abstract Background. There are several scoring systems used for in-hospital mortality prediction in critical illness. Their application in a local scenario requires validation to ensure appropriate diagnostic accuracy. Also, their use in assessing post-discharge mortality in the ICU survivors has not been extensively studied.Aim. To evaluate the ability of APACHE II, III and SAPS II to predict in-hospital and post-discharge mortality in adult ICU patients.Material and methods. APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II, with corresponding predicted mortality ratios, were calculated for 303 consecutive patients admitted to the 10-bed ICU in 2016. Long-term mortality was calculated based on information taken from PESEL database.Results. Median APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores were 19, 67 and 44 points, with corresponding in-hospital mortality ratios of 28.1, 18.5 and 34.8%. Observed in-hospital mortality was 35.6%. 12-month post-discharge mortality reached 17.4%. All systems predicted in-hospital mortality (p<0.05): APACHE II (AUC=0.783; 95%CI 0.732-0.828), APACHE III (AUC=0.793; 95%CI 0.743-0.838) and SAPS II (AUC=0.792; 95%CI 0.742-0.836), as well as mortality after ICU discharge (p<0.05): APACHE II (AUC=0.712; 95%CI 0.643-0.775), APACHE III (AUC=0.721; 95%CI 0.653-0.783) and SAPS II (AUC=0.695; 95%CI 0.625-0.759), with no statistically significant difference between them (p>0.05).Conclusions. Although the predictive values were the highest for APACHE III and SAPS II, no differences were noticed between the scores. In case of post-discharge mortality, diagnostic accuracy was much lower. Further studies are needed to create scores estimating the long-term prognosis of subjects successfully discharged from the ICU.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Szymon Czajka ◽  
Katarzyna Ziębińska ◽  
Konstanty Marczenko ◽  
Barbara Posmyk ◽  
Anna Szczepańska ◽  
...  

Abstract Background. There are several scores used for in-hospital mortality prediction in critical illness. Their application in a local scenario requires validation to ensure appropriate diagnostic accuracy. Moreover, their use in assessing post-discharge mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) survivors has not been extensively studied. We aimed to validate APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores in short- and long-term mortality prediction in a mixed adult ICU in Poland. APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores, with corresponding predicted mortality ratios, were calculated for 303 consecutive patients admitted to a 10-bed ICU in 2016. Short-term (in-hospital) and long-term (12-month post-discharge) mortality was assessed. Results. Median APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores were 19 (IQR 12-24), 67 (36.5-88) and 44 (27-56) points, with corresponding in-hospital mortality ratios of 25.8% (IQR 12.1-46.0), 18.5% (IQR 3.8-41.8) and 34.8% (IQR 7.9-59.8). Observed in-hospital mortality was 35.6%. Moreover, 12-month post-discharge mortality reached 17.4%. All the scores predicted in-hospital mortality (p<0.05): APACHE II (AUC=0.78; 95%CI 0.73-0.83), APACHE III (AUC=0.79; 95%CI 0.74-0.84) and SAPS II (AUC=0.79; 95%CI 0.74-0.84); as well as mortality after hospital discharge (p<0.05): APACHE II (AUC=0.71; 95%CI 0.64-0.78), APACHE III (AUC=0.72; 95%CI 0.65-0.78) and SAPS II (AUC=0.69; 95%CI 0.62-0.76), with no statistically significant difference between the scores (p>0.05). The calibration of the scores was good. Conclusions. All the scores are acceptable predictors of in-hospital mortality. In the case of post-discharge mortality, their diagnostic accuracy is lower and of borderline clinical relevance. Further studies are needed to create scores estimating the long-term prognosis of subjects successfully discharged from the ICU.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Szymon Czajka ◽  
Katarzyna Ziębińska ◽  
Konstanty Marczenko ◽  
Barbara Posmyk ◽  
Anna J. Szczepańska ◽  
...  

Abstract Background There are several scores used for in-hospital mortality prediction in critical illness. Their application in a local scenario requires validation to ensure appropriate diagnostic accuracy. Moreover, their use in assessing post-discharge mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) survivors has not been extensively studied. We aimed to validate APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores in short- and long-term mortality prediction in a mixed adult ICU in Poland. APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores, with corresponding predicted mortality ratios, were calculated for 303 consecutive patients admitted to a 10-bed ICU in 2016. Short-term (in-hospital) and long-term (12-month post-discharge) mortality was assessed. Results Median APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores were 19 (IQR 12–24), 67 (36.5–88) and 44 (27–56) points, with corresponding in-hospital mortality ratios of 25.8% (IQR 12.1–46.0), 18.5% (IQR 3.8–41.8) and 34.8% (IQR 7.9–59.8). Observed in-hospital mortality was 35.6%. Moreover, 12-month post-discharge mortality reached 17.4%. All the scores predicted in-hospital mortality (p < 0.05): APACHE II (AUC = 0.78; 95%CI 0.73–0.83), APACHE III (AUC = 0.79; 95%CI 0.74–0.84) and SAPS II (AUC = 0.79; 95%CI 0.74–0.84); as well as mortality after hospital discharge (p < 0.05): APACHE II (AUC = 0.71; 95%CI 0.64–0.78), APACHE III (AUC = 0.72; 95%CI 0.65–0.78) and SAPS II (AUC = 0.69; 95%CI 0.62–0.76), with no statistically significant difference between the scores (p > 0.05). The calibration of the scores was good. Conclusions All the scores are acceptable predictors of in-hospital mortality. In the case of post-discharge mortality, their diagnostic accuracy is lower and of borderline clinical relevance. Further studies are needed to create scores estimating the long-term prognosis of subjects successfully discharged from the ICU.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Szymon Czajka ◽  
Katarzyna Ziębińska ◽  
Konstanty Marczenko ◽  
Barbara Posmyk ◽  
Anna Szczepańska ◽  
...  

Abstract Background. There are several scores used for in-hospital mortality prediction in critical illness. Their application in a local scenario requires validation to ensure appropriate diagnostic accuracy. Moreover, their use in assessing post-discharge mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) survivors has not been extensively studied. We aimed to validate APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores in short- and long-term mortality prediction in a mixed adult ICU in Poland. APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores, with corresponding predicted mortality ratios, were calculated for 303 consecutive patients admitted to a 10-bed ICU in 2016. Short-term (in-hospital) and long-term (12-month post-discharge) mortality was assessed.Results. Median APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores were 19 (IQR 12-24), 67 (36.5-88) and 44 (27-56) points, with corresponding in-hospital mortality ratios of 25.8% (IQR 12.1-46.0), 18.5% (IQR 3.8-41.8) and 34.8% (IQR 7.9-59.8). Observed in-hospital mortality was 35.6%. Moreover, 12-month post-discharge mortality reached 17.4%. All the scores predicted in-hospital mortality (p<0.05): APACHE II (AUC=0.78; 95%CI 0.73-0.83), APACHE III (AUC=0.79; 95%CI 0.74-0.84) and SAPS II (AUC=0.79; 95%CI 0.74-0.84); as well as mortality after hospital discharge (p<0.05): APACHE II (AUC=0.71; 95%CI 0.64-0.78), APACHE III (AUC=0.72; 95%CI 0.65-0.78) and SAPS II (AUC=0.69; 95%CI 0.62-0.76), with no statistically significant difference between the scores (p>0.05). The calibration of the scores was good.Conclusions. All the scores are acceptable predictors of in-hospital mortality. In the case of post-discharge mortality, their diagnostic accuracy is lower and of borderline clinical relevance. Further studies are needed to create scores estimating the long-term prognosis of subjects successfully discharged from the ICU.


2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (8) ◽  
pp. 1103-1109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Gong ◽  
Feng Ding ◽  
Fen Zhang ◽  
Yong Gu

Although significant improvements have been achieved in the renal replacement therapy of acute kidney injury (AKI), the mortality of patients with AKI remains high. The aim of this study is to prospectively investigate the capacity of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation version II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score version II (SAPS II), Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Acute Tubular Necrosis Individual Severity Index (ATN-ISI) to predict in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients with AKI. A prospective observational study was conducted in a university teaching hospital. 189 consecutive critically ill patients with AKI were selected according Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, or End-stage kidney disease criteria. APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA and ATN-ISI counts were obtained within the first 24 hours following admission. Receiver operating characteristic analyses (ROCs) were applied. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated. Sensitivity and specificity of in-hospital mortality prediction were calculated. In this study, the in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients with AKI was 37.04% (70/189). AUC of APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA and ATN-ISI was 0.903 (95% CI 0.856 to 0.950), 0.893 (95% CI 0.847 to 0.940), 0.908 (95% CI 0.866 to 0.950) and 0.889 (95% CI 0.841 to 0.937) and sensitivity was 90.76%, 89.92%, 90.76% and 89.08% and specificity was 77.14%, 70.00%, 71.43% and 71.43%, respectively. In this study, it was found APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA and ATN-ISI are reliable in-hospital mortality predictors of critically ill patients with AKI. Trial registration number: NCT00953992.


2020 ◽  
pp. 088506662096387
Author(s):  
Mitchell Padkins ◽  
Thomas Breen ◽  
Nandan Anavekar ◽  
Gregory Barsness ◽  
Kianoush Kashani ◽  
...  

Purpose: To study the effect of hypoalbuminemia on short- and long-term mortality in Cardiac Intensive Care Unit (CICU) patients. Methods: We reviewed 12,418 unique CICU patients from 2007 to 2018. Hypoalbuminemia was defined as an admission albumin level <3.5 g/dL. Predictors of hospital mortality were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Results: We included 2,680 patients (22%) with a measured admission albumin level. The median age was 68 (39% females). Admission diagnoses included acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, cardiac arrest, and cardiogenic shock. The median albumin level was 3.4 g/dL and 55% of patients had hypoalbuminemia. Hospital mortality occurred in 16%, and patients with hypoalbuminemia had higher hospital mortality (21% vs. 9%, adjusted OR 2.64, 95% CI 2.09-3.34, p < 0.001). Albumin level was inversely associated with hospital mortality (adjusted OR 0.60 per 1 g/dL higher albumin level, 95% CI 0.47-0.75, p <0.001), with a stepwise increase in the hospital mortality at lower albumin levels. Post-discharge mortality was higher in hospital survivors with hypoalbuminemia, and increased as a function of lower albumin levels. Conclusion: Hypoalbuminemia is common in CICU patients and associated with higher short- and long-term mortality. Progressively lower serum albumin was incrementally associated with higher hospital and post-discharge mortality.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Mukhopadhyay ◽  
B. C. Tai ◽  
K. C. See ◽  
W. Y. Ng ◽  
T. K. Lim ◽  
...  

Background. Data on long-term outcomes of elderly (≥65 years) patients in ICU are sparse.Materials and Methods. Adult patients (n=1563, 45.4% elderly) admitted over 28 months were analyzed by competing risks regression model to determine independent factors related to in-hospital and long-term mortality.Results. 414 (26.5%) and 337 (21.6%) patients died in-hospital and during the 52 months following discharge, respectively; the elderly group had higher mortality during both periods. After discharge, elderly patients had 2.3 times higher mortality compared to the general population of the same age-group. In-hospital mortality was independently associated with mechanical ventilation (subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) 2.74), vasopressors (SHR 2.56), neurological disease (SHR 1.77), and Mortality Prediction Model II score (SHR 1.01) regardless of age and with malignancy (SHR, hematological 3.65, nonhematological 3.4) and prior renal replacement therapy (RRT, SHR 2.21) only in the elderly. Long-term mortality was associated with low hemoglobin concentration (SHR 0.94), airway disease (SHR 2.23), and malignancy (SHR hematological 1.11, nonhematological 2.31) regardless of age and with comorbidities especially among the nonelderly.Conclusions. Following discharge, elderly ICU patients have higher mortality compared to the nonelderly and general population. In the elderly group, prior RRT and malignancy contribute additionally to in-hospital mortality risk. In the long-term, comorbidities (age-related), anemia, airway disease, and malignancy were significantly associated with mortality.


2018 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 215145931877088 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Bank ◽  
Katie Gibbs ◽  
Cristina Sison ◽  
Nawshin Kutub ◽  
Angelos Papatheodorou ◽  
...  

Objective: To identify clinical or demographic variables that influence long-term mortality, as well as in-hospital mortality, with a particular focus on the effects of age. Summary and Background Data: Cervical spine fractures with or without spinal cord injury (SCI) disproportionately impact the elderly who constitute an increasing percentage of the US population. Methods: We analyzed data collected for 10 years at a state-designated level I trauma center to identify variables that influenced in-hospital and long-term mortality among elderly patients with traumatic cervical spine fracture with or without SCI. Acute in-hospital mortality was determined from hospital records and long-term mortality within the study period (2003-2013) was determined from the National Death Index. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to identify factors influencing survival. Results: Data from patients (N = 632) with cervical spine fractures were analyzed, the majority (66%) of whom were geriatric (older than age 64). Most patients (62%) had a mild/moderate injury severity score (ISS; median, interquartile range: 6, 5). Patients with SCI had significantly longer lengths of stay (14.1 days), days on a ventilator (3.5 days), and higher ISS (14.9) than patients without SCI ( P < .0001 for all). Falls were the leading mechanism of injury for patients older than age 64. Univariate analysis identified that long-term survival decreased significantly for all patients older than age 65 (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.07; P < .0001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated age (HR: 1.08; P < .0001), gender (HR: 1.60; P < .0007), and SCI status (HR: 1.45, P < .02) significantly influenced survival during the study period. Conclusion: This study identified age, gender, and SCI status as significant variables for this study population influencing long-term survival among patients with cervical spine fractures. Our results support the growing notion that cervical spine injuries in geriatric patients with trauma may warrant additional research.


Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 130 (suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anirudh Kumar ◽  
Salim Virani ◽  
Scott Bassett ◽  
Mahboob Alam ◽  
Ravi Hira ◽  
...  

Background: Thrombocytopenia (TCP) occurs commonly in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). It is unclear whether persistent TCP after discharge among AMI survivors is associated with worse outcomes. Methods: We examined the impact of persistent post-discharge TCP on outcomes in a registry of consecutive AMI patients hospitalized between January 2004 and December 2007. In-hospital (IH) TCP was defined by a nadir platelet count < 150 x 109/L. Resolved TCP was defined as IH TCP which resolved within 3 months after discharge while persistent TCP was defined as IH TCP which did not resolve within 3 months. Results: Of 842 patients hospitalized for a first AMI, we examined data on 617 hospital survivors who had follow-up within 3 months of discharge and documented long-term outcomes. Of those, 474 (76.8%) patients did not experience IH TCP while 42 (6.8%) and 101 (16.4%) had persistent and resolved TCP, respectively (Table). Patients with persistent TCP were older, had worse comorbidities, and were more likely to have TCP at baseline and discharge. There were no inter-group differences in infarct size, major bleeding complications, revascularization, or ejection fraction at discharge. Mortality following discharge was higher at all time-points among AMI patients with persistent TCP compared to patients with resolved or without IH TCP (Figure). Patients with resolved TCP had comparable mortality to those without IH TCP. Conclusion: Persistent TCP within 3 months after hospital discharge for AMI is associated with significantly increased short- and long-term mortality compared to patients with recovered TCP or without IH TCP.


Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jodi Edwards ◽  
Jessica Colby-Milley ◽  
Jiming Fang ◽  
Limei Zhou ◽  
Baiju R Shah ◽  
...  

Background: Comorbid diabetes and depression are highly prevalent in atrial fibrillation (AF) and increase the risk of stroke. Women with AF show higher mortality rates and have worse functional outcomes post-stroke. However, the sex-specific effects of comorbid diabetes and depression on mortality and other adverse outcomes in stroke patients with a history of AF is unclear. Methods: Prospectively collected consecutive patients with ischemic stroke and known AF presenting to designated stroke centres in Ontario (2003-2013). Multinomial regression was used to determine sex-specific associations between diabetes and depression and in-hospital mortality post-stroke in individuals with AF. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the adjusted hazard of long-term mortality post-stroke and competing risks models to estimate hazards of recurrent stroke/TIA, admission to long-term care, and incident dementia post-discharge. Results: Among 5082 stroke patients with known AF (median age=80, IQR:73-85), female patients were more likely to have comorbid depression than males (63.5% vs. 36.5%) and those with comorbid diabetes and depression were younger (77 yrs) and had more vascular history (HTN, CAD, hyperlipidemia) than those with AF only. For males, comorbid diabetes increased the likelihood of in-hospital mortality post-stroke by 53% (OR=1.53, 95% CI=1.16-2.02), after adjustment for stroke severity, demographic and clinical factors, while comorbid depression did not significantly impact in-hospital mortality and neither diabetes or depression affected in-hospital mortality post-stroke for females. However, diabetes was independently associated with increased hazard of long-term mortality for both female (HR=1.15, 95%CI=1.02-1.29) and male AF stroke patients (HR=1.35, 95%CI=1.19-1.53). No associations with recurrent stroke/TIA, institutionalization or dementia post-stroke were observed for either females or males. Conclusion: In stroke patients with known AF, comorbid diabetes but not depression was independently associated with increased in-hospital mortality for males and increased long-term mortality post-stroke for both females and males.


Author(s):  
Piotr A. Fuchs ◽  
Iwona J. Czech ◽  
Łukasz J. Krzych

Background: The Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scales are scoring systems used in intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. We aimed to investigate their usefulness in predicting short- and long-term prognosis in the local ICU. Methods: This single-center observational study covered 905 patients admitted from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2017 to a tertiary mixed ICU. SAPS II, APACHE II, and SOFA scores were calculated based on the worst values from the first 24 h post-admission. Patients were divided into surgical (SP) and nonsurgical (NSP) subjects. Unadjusted ICU and post-ICU discharge mortality rates were considered the outcomes. Results: Baseline SAPS II, APACHE II, and SOFA scores were 41.1 ± 20.34, 14.07 ± 8.73, and 6.33 ± 4.12 points, respectively. All scores were significantly lower among SP compared to NSP (p < 0.05). ICU mortality reached 35.4% and was significantly lower for SP (25.3%) than NSP (57.9%) (p < 0.001). The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were 0.826, 0.836, and 0.788 for SAPS II, APACHE II, and SOFA scales, respectively, for predicting ICU prognosis, and 0.708, 0.709, and 0.661 for SAPS II, APACHE II, and SOFA, respectively, for post-ICU prognosis. Conclusions: Although APACHE II and SAPS II are good predictors of ICU mortality, they failed to predict survival after discharge. Surgical patients had a better prognosis than medical ICU patients.


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