scholarly journals Nomogram-Based Prediction of the Risk of Macrosomia: A Prospective Cohort Study in a Chinese Population

Author(s):  
Jing Du ◽  
Sanbao Chai ◽  
Xin Zhao ◽  
Jianbin Sun ◽  
Ning Yuan ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective: This study aimed to establish a nomogram for predicting the risk of macrosomia in early pregnancy.Methods: We performed a prospective cohort study involving 1,549 pregnant women. According to the birth weight of newborn, the subjects were divided into two groups: macrosomia group and non-macrosomia group. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for macrosomia.Results: The prevalence of macrosomia was 6.13% (95/1549) in our hospital. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed the risk factors of macrosomia were prepregnancy overweight (OR: 2.126, 95% CI: 1.181-3.826)/obesity (OR: 3.536, 95% CI: 1.555-8.036), multiparity (OR:1.877, 95% CI: 1.160-3.039), the history of macrosomia (OR: 36.971, 95% CI: 19.903-68.674), the history of GDM/DM (OR: 2.285, 95% CI: 1.314-3.976), the higher levels of HbA1c (OR: 1.763, 95% CI: 1.004-3.097) and TC (OR: 1.360, 95% CI: 1.004-1.842). A nomogram was developed for predicting macrosomia based on maternal factors related to the risk of macrosomia in early pregnancy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the nomogram was 0.807 (95% CI: 0.755–0.859), the sensitivity and specificity of the model were 0.716 and 0.777, respectively.Conclusion: The nomogram model provides an accurate mothed for clinicians to early predict macrosomia.

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (2) ◽  
pp. 673-681
Author(s):  
Jin Wang ◽  
Xiaojuan Guo ◽  
Wenhui Lu ◽  
Jie Liu ◽  
Hong Zhang ◽  
...  

Background: Vascular factors and mitochondria dysfunction contribute to the pathogenesis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). DL-3-n-butylphthalide (NBP) has an effect in protecting mitochondria and improving microcirculation. Objective: The aim was to investigate the effect of donepezil combined NBP therapy in patients with mild-moderate AD. Methods: It was a prospective cohort study. 92 mild-moderate AD patients were classified into the donepezil alone group (n = 43) or the donepezil combined NBP group (n = 49) for 48 weeks. All patients were evaluated with Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog), Clinician’s Interview-Based Impression of Change plus caregiver input (CIBIC-plus), Alzheimer’s Disease Cooperative Study-Activities of Daily Living (ADCS-ADL), and Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) every 12 weeks. All patients were monitored for adverse events (AEs). The efficacy was analyzed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results: The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the changes of ADAS-cog score (OR = 2.778, 95% CI: [1.087, 7. 100], p = 0.033) and ADCS-ADL score (OR = 2.733, 95% CI: [1.002, 7.459], p = 0.049) had significant difference between donepezil alone group and donepezil combined NBP group, while the changes of NPI (OR = 1.145, 95% CI: [0.463, 2.829], p = 0.769), MMSE (OR = 1.563, 95% CI: [0.615, 3.971], p = 0.348) and CIBIC-plus (OR = 2.593, 95% CI: [0.696, 9.685], p = 0.156) had no significant difference. The occurrence of AEs was similar in the two groups. Conclusion: Over the 48-week treatment period, donepezil combined NBP group had slower cognitive decline and better activities of daily living in patients with mild to moderate AD. These indicated that the multi-target therapeutic effect of NBP may be a new choice for AD treatment.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwabena Acheampong ◽  
Xiongfeng Pan ◽  
Aizhong Liu

Abstract Background: Data examining whether anemia during different trimesters of pregnancy affects maternal and birth outcomes is lacking. Studies typically look at associations between risk factors and anemia or anemia and birth outcomes but have limited information as to whether birth outcomes differ with different trimesters of anemia. The main objective of this study is to determine whether anemia during different trimesters of pregnancy and hypertension disorders is associated with adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes in Ghana.Methods: This will be a primary analysis of data from a hospital-based prospective cohort study in four selected hospitals in the Bekwai Municipality, Ghana from February 2020 to August 2020. All singleton pregnancy at less than 20 weeks to women with at least one hemoglobin measure during pregnancy will be included. The risk of maternal and perinatal outcomes will be measured. Descriptive statistics will be used to describe the baseline characteristics of our cohort. Baseline characteristics of the two groups will be compared using Pearson Chi-square (χ2) test for categorical variables; the independent t-test and Mann–Whitney U test for parametric and nonparametric continuous variables, respectively. The risk associated with anemia and maternal and perinatal outcomes, using the history of anemia (Hb<11g/dL) in different trimesters will be calculated by logistic regression analysis, conditional on the baseline covariates. Possible confounding variables will be identified from background data, obstetric risk factors, and health behaviors. Multivariate analysis of significant effects (p<0.05) will be based on multiple logistic regression analysis. Confidence intervals will be evaluated at 95%. Data will be coded and examined using the SPSS program IBM version 20.Discussion: The better understanding of whether anemia during different trimesters of pregnancy and hypertension disorders is associated with adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes in Bekwai Municipality of Ghana. This study will establish targets for early intervention and identify risk factors to save and improve the lives of pregnant women and inborn by developing solutions that promote the quality and accountability of health services for the most vulnerable. These findings will be served as a policy document to governments in designing effective programs to curb the increasing prevalence of anemia and its associated health consequences.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vera Spatenkova ◽  
Ondrej Bradac ◽  
Zdenek Jindrisek ◽  
Jan Hradil ◽  
Daniela Fackova ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Surgical site infection (SSI) is a risk in every operation. Infections negatively impact patient morbidity and mortality and increase financial demands. The aim of this study was to analyse SSI and its risk factors in patients after thoracic or lumbar spine surgery. Methods A six-year single-centre prospective observational cohort study monitored the incidence of SSI in 274 patients who received planned thoracic or lumbar spinal surgery for degenerative disease, trauma, or tumour. They were monitored for up to 30 days postoperatively and again after 1 year. All patients received short antibiotic prophylaxis and stayed in the eight-bed neurointensive care unit (NICU) during the immediate postoperative period. Risk factors for SSI were sought using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results We recorded 22 incidences of SSI (8.03%; superficial 5.84%, deep 1.82%, and organ 0.36%). Comparing patients with and without SSI, there were no differences in age (p=0.374), gender (p=0.545), body mass index (p=0.878), spine diagnosis (p=0.745), number of vertebrae (p=0.786), spine localization (p=0.808), implant use (p=0.428), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Score (p=0.752), urine catheterization (p=0.423), drainage (p=0.498), corticosteroid use (p=0.409), transfusion (p=0.262), ulcer prophylaxis (p=0.409) and diabetes mellitus (p=0.811). The SSI group had longer NICU stays (p=0.043) and more non-infectious hospital wound complications (p<0.001). SSI risk factors according to our multivariate logistic regression analysis were hospital wound complications (OR 20.40, 95% CI 7.32–56.85, p<0.001) and warm season (OR 2.92, 95% CI 1.03–8.27, p=0.044). Conclusions Contrary to the prevailing literature, our study did not identify corticosteroids, diabetes mellitus, or transfusions as risk factors for the development of SSI. Only wound complications and warm seasons were significantly associated with SSI development according to our multivariate regression analysis.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bedilu Girma Weji ◽  
Mohammed Suleiman Obsa ◽  
Kidest Getu Melese ◽  
Gedion Asnake Azeze

Abstract Background:Postdural puncture headache is one of the complications following spinal anaesthesia and accidental dural puncture. Several modifiable risk factors contribute to the development of headache after lumbar puncture, which includes needle size, needle design, direction of the bevel and number of lumbar puncture attempts. This study aimed to assess the incidence and risk of postdural puncture headache.Methods:This prospective cohort study design was conducted using a consecutive sampling method. Regular supervision and follow-up were performed. Data were entered into Epi info version 7 software and transported to SPSS version 20 for analysis. The odds ratio and 95% confidence interval were computed. The findings of the study were reported using tables, figures and narrations. Variables that were found to be candidates (p value < 0.25) on binary logistic regression entered into a multiple logistic regression analysis to identify independent predictors of postdural puncture headache.Results:One hundred fifty eligible study participants were included in our study, of which 28.7% had developed postdural puncture headache. This study found that needle size, number of cerebro spinal fluid drops and multiple attempts were significant independent predictors of postdural puncture headache (p < 0.05). In addition, twenty-five needles were identified as the strongest preoperative independent predictor of postdural puncture headache (AOR = 4.150, CI = 1.433- 12.021)Conclusions:A recent study revealed that a small spinal needle was much better than a large cutting spinal needle regarding the frequency of postdural puncture headache. In addition, frequent attempts during lumbar puncture and increased cerebro spinal fluid leakage were associated with the events. In view of this, we recommend the use of a small spinal needle to avoid more leakage of cerebrospinal fluid and multiple attempts at spinal anesthesia and lumbar puncture.


BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. e035809
Author(s):  
Bert Vaes ◽  
Paulien Indestege ◽  
Tinne Serneels ◽  
Eralda Hegendörfer ◽  
Petra G van Peet ◽  
...  

ObjectivesTo test new cardiovascular (CV) risk models in very old adults with and without a history of CV disease (CVD), based on traditional risk factors and biomarkers.DesignCross-validated prospective cohort study. The models were tested in the BELFRAIL Study and externally validated in the Leiden 85-plus Study.SettingGeneral practice, Belgium and The Netherlands.ParticipantsThe BELFRAIL cohort consisted of 266 patients aged 80 years or older without a history of CVD and 260 with a history of CVD. The Leiden 85-plus Study consisted of 264 patients aged 85 years without a history of CVD and 282 with a history of CVD.Outcome measuresThe model with traditional risk factors and biomarkers, as well as the model using only biomarkers, was compared with the model with only traditional risk factors to predict 3-year CV morbidity and mortality. A competing-risk analysis was performed, and the continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net benefit were used to compare the predictive value of the different models.ResultsTraditional risk factors poorly predicted CV mortality and morbidity. In participants without a history of CVD, adding N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) improved the prediction (NRI 0.56 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.99) and relative IDI 4.01 (95% CI 2.19 to 6.28)). In participants with a history of CVD, the NRI with the addition of NT-pro-BNP and high-sensitivity C reactive protein was 0.38 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.70), and the relative IDI was 0.53 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.90). Moreover, in participants without a history of CVD, NT-pro-BNP performed well as a stand-alone predictor (NRI 0.32 (95% CI −0.12 to 0.74) and relative IDI 3.44 (95% CI 1.56 to 6.09)).ConclusionsThis study tested new risk models to predict CV morbidity and mortality in very old adults. Especially, NT-pro-BNP showed a strong added predictive value. This opens perspectives for clinicians who are in need of an easily applicable strategy for CV risk prediction in very old adults.


BMJ Open ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. e023719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lizhen Huang ◽  
Xia Huang ◽  
Wujiang Jiang ◽  
Rong Zhang ◽  
Yongdong Yan ◽  
...  

ObjectivesTo examine prospectively the radiographic clearance of refractoryMycoplasma pneumoniaepneumonia (RMPP) in immunocompetent children, and to identify independent predictors of time to complete radiographic resolution in patients with RMPP.DesignA prospective cohort study.SettingChildren’s Hospital of Soochow University, China.ParticipantsA total of 187 patients with RMPP treated with bronchoscopy were prospectively enrolled in the study between January 2012 and December 2015.MethodsSerial chest radiographs were obtained after discharge every 4 weeks up to a maximum of 24 weeks after diagnosis or until large infiltration on chest radiographs had resolved. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of time to complete radiographic resolution.ResultsOf the 187 patients with RMPP, bronchial mucus plug formation was detected in 73 (39.0%). C reactive protein (CRP) ≥50 mg/L, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) ≥480 U/L, total fever duration ≥10 days and presence of mucus plugs were associated with longer time to radiographic clearance (all p<0.01). Compared with children without mucus plugs, those with mucus plugs were significantly more likely to have longer time to radiographic clearance (adjusted OR: 11.5; 95% CI 2.5 to 45.7; p<0.01).ConclusionClinicians might use duration of fever, CRP, LDH and presence of mucus plugs as parameters to identify children at a longer time to radiographic clearance in patients with RMPP.


Blood ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 104 (11) ◽  
pp. 2200-2200
Author(s):  
Agnes Y. Lee ◽  
Carolyn Webb ◽  
Qing Guo ◽  
Lorrie Costantini ◽  
Greg Butler ◽  
...  

Abstract Long-term indwelling central venous catheters (CVCs) are used for delivering chemotherapy, parenteral nutrition, antibiotics, and blood products, as well as for facilitating blood drawing, in many patients with malignancy. Although the important supportive role of CVCs is unquestioned, there is uncertainty regarding the prevention and treatment of catheter-related thrombosis (CRT) because there is a lack of prospective and contemporary data on the natural history of this complication. As a first step towards improving CRT management, we conducted a prospective cohort study to examine the incidence, clinical risk factors, and the long-term sequelae of symptomatic CRT in adults with cancer. Consecutive patients undergoing insertion of a CVC at a tertiary care center were enrolled and followed for the duration of their catheter-dwell time plus 4 weeks or a maximum of 52 weeks, whichever comes first. Scheduled assessments were done at weeks 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, 24, 36 and 52 weeks after insertion. Patients with symptomatic CRT were treated with anticoagulants and were followed for an additional 52 weeks from the date of CRT diagnosis. Baseline information and follow-up data regarding catheter patency, thromboprophylaxis, clinical symptoms, and thrombotic events was collected. Standardized regional guidelines for catheter care were followed and symptomatic CRT was diagnosed based on objective testing and satisfaction of prespecified criteria. Between March 2002 and July 2003, 444 patients underwent 500 catheter insertions. The mean patient age was 56 y (range 18–91 y) and 55% of patients were female. Catheters inserted included PICCs (65%), ports (18%), pheresis (11%), and Hickman catheters (6%). As of July 22, 2004, 442 patients had completed follow-up. The total catheter-dwell time was 59,959 d (median 88 d), while the total follow-up was 73,654 pt-d (median 151 d). Colorectal was the most common tumor type in 18% of patients and 41% of all patients at enrolment had metastatic solid tumor. Overall, there were 19 episodes of symptomatic CRT, representing an incidence of 4.3% (95% CI 2.6–6.6%) of patients or 0.3 CRTs per 1000 catheter-dwell days (95% CI 0.2–0.5 per 1000 d). The mean time to CRT was 53 d (range 6–162 d). Development of CRT was not associated with age, ECOG performance status, cancer treatment, catheter type, side of insertion, thromboprophylaxis, infection, or previous history of thrombosis. The only significant risk factor was ovarian cancer (P=0.02). In patients with symptomatic CRT, 89% (17/19) of CRTs were treated with anticoagulant therapy alone, 5.3% (1/19) had the catheter removed, and 5.3% (1/19) were treated with both; none had symptomatic pulmonary embolism or post-thrombotic syndrome during follow-up. In summary, the incidence of symptomatic CRT in adults with cancer is low and treatment with anticoagulant therapy alone was not associated with any serious long-term sequelae. Due to the small number of CRTs observed, larger studies are required to further evaluate risk factors and identify the optimal therapeutic approach for CRTs.


Author(s):  
Omar M. Shaaban ◽  
Hamdy A. Ahmed ◽  
Mohammed K. Ali ◽  
Ahmed M. Abbas ◽  
Ahmed Nasr ◽  
...  

Background: The objective of this study is to identify the percentage of low implanted placenta (LIP) at second trimester of pregnancy and identify the risk factors of its persistence to placenta previa (PP) at term.Methods: Through a registered prospective cohort study conducted at tertiary hospital in Upper Egypt, authors screened all pregnant ladies comes to present facility for antenatal second trimester USG between 18-24 weeks gestation. All participants interviewed for detailed risk factors of placenta previa. Those diagnosed to have a LIP (≤1.5 cm from the internal os) had had TVS to confirm the exact distance between the lower edge of the placenta and the internal os. Serial USG had been done every 4 weeks up to delivery to measure the same distance. The primary outcome was the percentage of LIP at 18-24 weeks. Logistic regression analysis was performed to predict the risk factors for PP at term.Results: Through screening of 1000 pregnant lady, LIP had been identified in (52 cases) 5.2% of pregnant women between 18-24 weeks. This percentage dropped gradually to reach 1.3% at 36 weeks of gestation and at time of delivery. The logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the distance between the internal os and the lower edge of the placenta between 18-24 weeks was the single significant variable associated with PP at term (p<0.001, odds ratio 0.319, 95% CI 0.20-0.50). However, excluding the distance from the regression model demonstrated other risk factors as previous miscarriage, previous cesarean section (CS), and history of multiple pregnancies and history of previous PP.Conclusions: About 5.0% of pregnant women have LIP at the second trimester of pregnancy (18-24 weeks) and only 25.0 % of them remain placenta previa at term. A cut-off value of 10 mm between the internal os and the lower edge of the placenta is the most important predictor of development of PP.


Author(s):  
Liang Chen ◽  
Xiudi Han ◽  
YanLi Li ◽  
Chunxiao Zhang ◽  
Xiqian Xing

Abstract Objective To explore disease severity and risk factors for 30-day mortality of adult immunocompromised (IC) patients hospitalized with influenza-related pneumonia (Flu-p). Method A total of 122 IC and 1191 immunocompetent patients hospitalized with Flu-p from January 2012 to December 2018 were recruited retrospectively from five teaching hospitals in China. Results After controlling for confounders, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that immunosuppression was associated with increased risks for invasive ventilation [odds ratio: (OR) 2.475, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.511–4.053, p < 0.001], admittance to the intensive care unit (OR: 3.247, 95% CI 2.064–5.106, p < 0.001), and 30-day mortality (OR: 3.206, 95% CI 1.926–5.335, p < 0.001) in patients with Flu-p. Another multivariate logistic regression model revealed that baseline lymphocyte counts (OR: 0.993, 95% CI 0.990–0.996, p < 0.001), coinfection (OR: 5.450, 95% CI 1.638–18.167, p = 0.006), early neuraminidase inhibitor therapy (OR 0.401, 95% CI 0.127–0.878, p = 0.001), and systemic corticosteroid use at admission (OR: 6.414, 95% CI 1.348–30.512, p = 0.020) were independently related to 30-day mortality in IC patients with Flu-p. Based on analysis of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the optimal cutoff for lymphocyte counts was 0.6 × 109/L [area under the ROC (AUROC) = 0.824, 95% CI 0.744—0.887], sensitivity: 97.8%, specificity: 73.7%]. Conclusions IC conditions are associated with more severe outcomes in patients with Flu-p. The predictors for mortality that we identified may be valuable for the management of Flu-p among IC patients.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Chen ◽  
Xiudi Han ◽  
YanLi Li ◽  
Chunxiao Zhang ◽  
Xiqian Xing

Abstract Objective To explore disease severity and risk factors for 30-day mortality of adult immunocompromised (IC) patients hospitalized with influenza-related pneumonia (Flu-p).Method A total of 122 IC and 1,191 immunocompetent patients hospitalized with Flu-p from January 2012 to December 2018 were recruited retrospectively from five teaching hospitals in China. Results After controlling for confounders, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that immunosuppression was associated with increased risks for invasive ventilation [odds ratio: (OR) 2.475, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.511-4.053, p < 0.001], admittance to the intensive care unit (OR: 3.247, 95% CI: 2.064-5.106, p < 0.001), and 30-day mortality (OR: 3.206, 95% CI: 1.926-5.335, p < 0.001) in patients with Flu-p. Another multivariate logistic regression model revealed that baseline lymphocyte counts (OR: 0.993, 95% CI: 0.990-0.996, p < 0.001), coinfection (OR: 5.450, 95% C:I 1.638-18.167, p = 0.006), early neuraminidase inhibitor therapy (OR 0.401, 95% CI 0.127-0.878, p = 0.001), and systemic corticosteroid use at admission (OR: 6.414, 95% C:I 1.348-30.512, p = 0.020) were independently related to 30-day mortality in IC patients with Flu-p. Based on receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, the optimal cutoff for lymphocyte counts was 0.6×109/L [area under the ROC (AUROC) = 0.824, 95% CI: 0.744 - 0.887], sensitivity: 97.8%, specificity: 73.7%].Conclusions IC conditions are associated with more severe outcomes in patients with Flu-p. The predictors for mortality that we identified may be valuable for the management of Flu-p among IC patients.


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