scholarly journals Analysis of Trends, Recurrences, Severity and Frequency of Droughts using SPI: Case of OR Tambo DM, Eastern Cape in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Nkamisa ◽  
Simbarashe Ndhleve ◽  
MDV Nakin ◽  
A Mngeni ◽  
H Kabiti
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
National Level ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Local Municipalities

Abstract South Africa is susceptible to droughts. However, there is little documentation on drought occurrence in South Africa at national level and its various administrative boundaries. The study aimed to profile the hydrological drought in ORTDM from 1998–2018; computing their frequency, severity and intensity so as to show areas of high vulnerability. Data used on this study was obtained from South African Weather Services in Pretoria. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated using the Meteorological Drought Monitor (MDM) software computing drought frequency, severity and intensity using 3 and 6 months SPI. The results showed a wide variation in monthly precipitation throughout the year. Coastal areas receive high rainfall than inland municipalities. When recorded in descending order, the drought intensity Nyandeni shows the highest drought frequency with a percentage of 62%, Mhlontlo (58%), KSDM (57%), Ngquza Hill (55%) and Port St Johns showing the least at (52%). The hydrological drought severity frequency and duration varied between 7 days to 9 weeks. Drought intensity class exposed the annual average intensity for the 5 local municipalities represented as follows; KSDM (-0.71), PSJM (-0.99), Ngquza Hill (-0.81), Nyandeni (-0.71) and Mhlontlo (-0.62). Maximum drought intensity for the 5 local municipalities showed the following results KSDM (-2.4), PSJM (-1.8), Ngquza Hill M (-1.9), Nyandeni M (-2.8) and Mhlontlo M (-3.1). The longest drought duration across OR Tambo was experienced in 2014 and has the following durations: KSDM (3 weeks), PSJM (5 weeks), Ngquza Hill (7 weeks), Nyandeni (8 weeks) and Mhlontlo (11 weeks). ORTDM is susceptible to hydrological droughts and the extent vary across local municipalities. The results could be used as a guide to the allocation of resources for drought relief purpose in a way that seeks to prioritize drought prone areas and vulnerable municipality. The SPI could be a useful when forecasting and estimating the frequency, duration and intensity of droughts. However, emphasis should be placed on improving the quality of data as this is key in improving the quality of its outcome.

Comprehensive assessment and variation characteristics of the drought intensity in North China based on EID

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North China ◽  
Maximum Intensity ◽  
Stage I ◽  
Stage Ii ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Variation Characteristics

Abstract Under the new background of climate change, it is very important to identify the characteristics of drought in North China. Based on the daily Meteorological Drought Comprehensive Index from 494 national meteorological stations in North China during 1961–2019, the drought processes and their intensity are identified by applying the ‘extreme’ intensity-duration theory. Then, the stage variation characteristics of the drought trend, the average drought intensity and the drought frequency are analyzed. The results show that among the five drought intensity indexes the process maximum intensity demonstrates the greatest correlation coefficient with the disaster rate of drought in North China. Therefore, the process maximum intensity of drought is selected as the annual drought intensity to analyze the drought characteristics in North China. According to the climate warming trends, the study period is divided into three stages, i.e., 1951–1984 (stage I), 1985–1997 (stage II) and 1998–2019(stage III). The comprehensive results show that the drought intensity in North China has significant stage characteristics. In stage I, the drought shows an increasing trend in most parts of North China, but its average intensity is relatively weaker, with a lower severe drought frequency. The drought also shows an increasing trend in most parts in stage II, with a more significant increase rate than that in stage I, and the average drought intensity is the strongest and the severe drought frequency is the highest. In stage III, the drought shows a decreasing trend in some areas, and the average intensity is the weakest, with a lower severe drought frequency.

scholarly journals Drought and Grain Crop Yields over the East European Plain under Influence of Quasibiennial Oscillation of Global Atmospheric Processes

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Elena Cherenkova ◽  
Inna Semenova ◽  
Mikhail Bardin ◽  
Alexander N. Zolotokrylin
Keyword(s):  
Crop Yields ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
East European Plain ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
East European ◽  
Increased Risk

Monthly precipitation and the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used to reveal the patterns of rainfall and severe drought frequency over the East European Plain in the period 1953–2011 in the opposite phases of the quasibiennial oscillation (QBO). Differences of precipitation and severe drought frequency in May and in June in the westward and eastward phases of the QBO phases are explained by circulation variations. The analysis indicates less frequent severe drought events over Ukraine and at the center of the European part of Russia in May in the westward QBO phase due to the intensification of the storm track over the East European Plain. The weather conditions in May and in June in the years of the westward QBO phase were more favorable for the yield. The difference of spring wheat yield in the westward and eastward QBO phase exceeds the same difference of winter wheat yield in the Central Black Earth region and in the south regions. Ukraine and the region to the east of the Sea of Azov are the most vulnerable areas of increased risk of severe drought during the active growing season at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Annual Characterization of Regional Hydrological Drought using Auxiliary Information under Global Warming Scenario

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zulfiqar Ali ◽  
Ijaz Hussain ◽  
Muhammad Faisal
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Auxiliary Information ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Warming Scenario ◽  
Global Warming Scenario ◽  
Precipitation Records

Abstract. Climate change and global warming scenario is likely to increase worsening drought across the World. Drought is a complex natural hazard, which is a composition of many factors such as hydrological, meteorological and agricultural. Accurate characterization of hydrological drought at regional level is challenging. Standardized Drought Indices (SDI) is commonly used method for drought characterization and monitoring. In this study, we proposed a hydrological drought index, which used improved monthly precipitation estimates under global warming scenario. As monthly precipitation records have significant role in regional drought characterization. Therefore, this research suggests auxiliary information as local weights to improve monthly precipitation records in terms of dependence characteristic of temperature with precipitation records under regression estimation settings. Consequently, we proposed a new method of hydrological drought assessment The Locally Weighted Standardized Precipitation Index (LWSDI). We assessed hydrological drought using LWSDI on 10 meteorological stations located in various climatological regions of Pakistan. We compared and evaluated performance of LWSDI with Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 12-month time scale based on Pearson correlation. We found high positive correlation between the LWSDI and existing methods (SPI and SPEI). In summary, improved estimates of precipitation can strengthen drought monitoring system.

The Non-Economic Quality of Life on a Sub-National Level in South Africa

2007 ◽  
Vol 86 (3) ◽  
pp. 433-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanié Rossouw ◽  
Wim Naudé
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
South Africa ◽  
National Level

scholarly journals Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Precipitation and Drought Intensity in an Arid Catchment in South Africa

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Achamyeleh G. Mengistu ◽  
Weldemichael A. Tesfuhuney ◽  
Yali E. Woyessa ◽  
Leon D. van Rensburg
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Aridity Index ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Water deficit is high and precipitation varies spatio-temporally in arid areas. This study was conducted to analyse the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation and drought intensity in an arid catchment in South Africa. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate the spatio-temporal precipitation where nine meteorological stations were used as input to the model. The model was calibrated and validated by regionalization with a physical similarity approach. SWAT only predicts precipitation at sub-basin level. Hence, the mean precipitation was further interpolated by using the inverse distance weighted method (IDW). The Mann–Kendall trend test shows that there was no trend in annual precipitation whereas in the monthly precipitation there was a 0.01 mm decrease. Daily precipitation varied from 0.1 to 4 mm whereas in a monthly basis, it varied from 6 mm (September) to 43.4 mm (February). The annual precipitation varied from 169 mm (1983) to 415 mm (2003) with a long-term mean of 280.8 mm. Precipitation is also highly variable in space throughout the catchment. Generally, annual precipitation decreased from north to south; however, during the winter season, the reverse was true due to the influence of rain-bearing condition from the south- western direction. Based on the aridity index (AI), the catchment is categorized as arid. The SPI shows that the 1983 drought was the worst whereas the 2003 and 2004 years were relatively wet. The results from this study provide baseline information for further research in climate change adaptation and environmental monitoring programs in the region.

scholarly journals Probabilistic hydrological drought index forecasting based on meteorological drought index using Archimedean copulas

2019 ◽  
Vol 50 (5) ◽  
pp. 1230-1250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Majid Dehghani ◽  
Bahram Saghafian ◽  
Mansoor Zargar
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Drought Condition ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Hydrological Drought Index

Abstract Hydrological drought forecasting is considered a key component in water resources risk management. As sustained meteorological drought may lead to hydrological drought over time, it is conceptually feasible to capitalize on the dependency between the meteorological and hydrological droughts while trying to forecast the latter. As such, copula functions are powerful tools to study the propagation of meteorological droughts into hydrological droughts. In this research, monthly precipitation and discharge time series were used to determine Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Hydrological Drought Index (SHDI) at different time scales which quantify the state of meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. Five Archimedean copula functions were adopted to model the dependence structure between meteorological/hydrological drought indices. The Clayton copula was identified for further investigation based on the p-value. Next, the conditional probability and the matrix of forecasted class transitions were calculated. Results indicated that the next month's SHDI class forecasting is promising with less than 10% error. Moreover, extreme and severe meteorological drought classes lead to hydrological drought condition with a more than 70% probability. Other classes of meteorological drought/wet conditions lead to normal hydrological (drought) condition with less than 50% probability and to wet hydrological condition with over 20% probability.

scholarly journals An Optimized System for the Classification of Meteorological Drought Intensity with Applications in Drought Frequency Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (8) ◽  
pp. 1943-1960 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo Carrão ◽  
Andrew Singleton ◽  
Gustavo Naumann ◽  
Paulo Barbosa ◽  
Jürgen V. Vogt
Keyword(s):  
Classification System ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Classification Systems ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Threshold Levels ◽  
Intensity Threshold ◽  
Drought Frequency Analysis

AbstractThe adequacy of meteorological drought intensity threshold levels based on deviations of monthly precipitation totals from normal climatological conditions is reconsidered. The motivation for this study is the observation that reference classification systems are fixed for all climatological regions, and threshold levels have been proposed without regard for the statistical distribution of accumulated precipitation in space and time. This misrepresentation of precipitation variability may lead to erroneous estimates of meteorological drought onset in specific areas where natural breaks in the cumulative distribution of monthly precipitation do not fit the generalized classification systems. In this study, a new optimized classification system based on the nonparametric “Fisher–Jenks” algorithm is proposed for the estimation of meteorological drought intensity threshold levels from monthly precipitation totals. The optimized classification system is compared using the tabular accuracy index (TAI) to three fixed classification systems that are proposed in the literature and widely applied in the operational setting. An assessment of drought intensity classifications with optimized and fixed threshold levels shows that 1) six optimized categories most accurately divide precipitation totals into the most appropriate drought intensities, 2) optimized thresholds always give considerably improved drought intensity category allocations over fixed thresholds with the same number of categories, and 3) fixed thresholds underestimate the drought onset. An analysis of monthly and long-term drought frequency for Latin America has been conducted for assessing the spatial link between meteorological drought intensity categories computed with the Fisher–Jenks algorithm and different climate classifications. The results show a systematic match between climate variability in the region and spatial patterns of meteorological drought intensity.

scholarly journals Using GIS tool for presenting spatial distribution of drought

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-84
Author(s):  
Milan Gocic ◽  
Danilo Misic ◽  
Slavisa Trajkovic ◽  
Mladen Milanovic
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
National Level ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Gis Tools ◽  
Variability Index ◽  
Spatial Presentation ◽  
Water Surplus ◽  
Monthly Precipitation Data

By using GIS tools, it is possible to improve the preview of hydrological processes such as evapotranspiration, precipitation, flood and drought. In order to quantify drought, different type of drought indicators have been developed such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) or Water Surplus Variability Index (WSVI). In this paper the precipitation-based SPI indicator was applied to the monthly precipitation data from Serbia during the period 1948-2012. The data were processed in the QuantumGIS software package. For the purpose of application in the monitoring of drought at the national level, a spatial presentation of meteorological drought was obtained.

Proposal for Improving Records Management Practices of Traditional Institutions in Ga Molepo, South Africa

Mousaion ◽  
10.25159/2054 ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-67
Author(s):  
Mahlaga Johannes Molepo ◽  
Linda M. Cloete
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Rural Communities ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Records Management ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Record Keeping ◽  
Local Municipalities ◽  
Management Procedures ◽  
Traditional Institutions

The way in which an institution treats its records is crucial for its survival in a rapidly changing society. The purpose of the study was to investigate the records management practices and challenges faced by traditional institutions of leadership and governance in Ga Molepo, Limpopo, South Africa. The researcher employed a cross-sectional survey in order to quantitatively examine the challenges faced by members of traditional councils. A researcher administered questionnaire was used as a data collection tool to study a stratified sample of 35 members from an estimated population of 350. The findings revealed patterns and trends of non-compliance with records management standards and guidelines. Although there were sporadic cases of record keeping, a greater number of respondents revealed that traditional institutions lack the facilities, equipment, education and trained/skilled personnel to apply correct records management procedures in their daily administration of their traditional communities. The main value of the study is to create awareness of records management as one of the neglected areas in traditional institutions – which are by current legislative arrangement, the closest form of leadership and governance for rural communities in light of their relationship with local municipalities and the Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs.

POTENTIAL OF THE ASTRAKHAN REGION IN THE CONTEXT OF DEVELOPMENT OF RGANIZED FISHING TOURISM

2020 ◽  
pp. 224-234
Author(s):  
Tatiana A. Sribnaya ◽  
◽  
Natalya А. Bodneva ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Quality Of Service ◽  
International Market ◽  
Fish Resources ◽  
Specialized Services

Fishing tourism is one of the modern types of tourism that is aimed at meeting the needs of a certain segment of tourists in fishing. This type of tourism is organized by special enterprises to favorable places for fishing. Fishing tours in most cases include specialized services such as: fishing license, tackle rental, boat rental, instruction and joint fishing with a qualified fishing guide, as well as services aimed at preserving and preparing the fish caught. Such countries as Finland, Norway, Egypt, Namibia, South Africa, Iceland, Sweden, Slovakia, Thailand and Israel occupy high positions in the international market of fishing tourism and are famous for their fish resources. As for fishing tourism in Russia, the demand for fishing tourism is currently increasing. Tourist companies are engaged in expanding the geography of fishing tours and improving the quality of service, which affects the increase in demand for this type of tour. The analysis of the potential of the Astrakhan region, carried out in the article, allowed us to identify opportunities for the development of organizational fishing tourism.

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