scholarly journals Drought and Grain Crop Yields over the East European Plain under Influence of Quasibiennial Oscillation of Global Atmospheric Processes

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Elena Cherenkova ◽  
Inna Semenova ◽  
Mikhail Bardin ◽  
Alexander N. Zolotokrylin
Keyword(s):  
Crop Yields ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
East European Plain ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
East European ◽  
Increased Risk

Monthly precipitation and the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used to reveal the patterns of rainfall and severe drought frequency over the East European Plain in the period 1953–2011 in the opposite phases of the quasibiennial oscillation (QBO). Differences of precipitation and severe drought frequency in May and in June in the westward and eastward phases of the QBO phases are explained by circulation variations. The analysis indicates less frequent severe drought events over Ukraine and at the center of the European part of Russia in May in the westward QBO phase due to the intensification of the storm track over the East European Plain. The weather conditions in May and in June in the years of the westward QBO phase were more favorable for the yield. The difference of spring wheat yield in the westward and eastward QBO phase exceeds the same difference of winter wheat yield in the Central Black Earth region and in the south regions. Ukraine and the region to the east of the Sea of Azov are the most vulnerable areas of increased risk of severe drought during the active growing season at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Over-Optimistic Projected Future Wheat Yield Potential in the North China Plain: The Role of Future Climate Extremes

Agronomy ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 145
Author(s):  
Rui Yang ◽  
Panhong Dai ◽  
Bin Wang ◽  
Tao Jin ◽  
Ke Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drought Stress ◽  
North China Plain ◽  
North China ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Yield Potential ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
The North ◽  
The North China Plain ◽  
Stress Environments

Global warming and altered precipitation patterns pose a serious threat to crop production in the North China Plain (NCP). Quantifying the frequency of adverse climate events (e.g., frost, heat and drought) under future climates and assessing how those climatic extreme events would affect yield are important to effectively inform and make science-based adaptation options for agriculture in a changing climate. In this study, we evaluated the effects of heat and frost stress during sensitive phenological stages at four representative sites in the NCP using the APSIM-wheat model. climate data included historical and future climates, the latter being informed by projections from 22 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) for the period 2031–2060 (2050s). Our results show that current projections of future wheat yield potential in the North China Plain may be overestimated; after more accurately accounting for the effects of frost and heat stress in the model, yield projections for 2031-60 decreased from 31% to 9%. Clustering of common drought-stress seasonal patterns into key groups revealed that moderate drought stress environments are likely to be alleviated in the future, although the frequency of severe drought-stress environments would remain similar (25%) to that occurring under the current climate. We highlight the importance of mechanistically accounting for temperature stress on crop physiology, enabling more robust projections of crop yields under future the burgeoning climate crisis.

Assessment of droughts and their linkage to environmental flow conditions over a large Indian river basin

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabyasachi Swain ◽  
Surendra Kumar Mishra ◽  
Ashish Pandey
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Environmental Flow ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Ungauged Catchments ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Entire Duration ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Indian River ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

<p>A robust characterization and risk assessment of meteorological droughts is the need of the hour considering its pervasiveness and consequences; however, their precise physical quantification is a difficult geophysical endeavor. This becomes a serious issue for India, having 18% of the world’s population and 4% of global freshwater, out of which 83% is used in agriculture. In this study, a detailed spatiotemporal assessment of the meteorological droughts characterized by standardized precipitation index (SPI) at annual scale is carried out over the Narmada Basin, India using the monthly rainfall data from 24 stations for 63 years (1951- 2013). The entire duration was divided into two epochs of 31 years (i.e. 1951-1981 and 1982-2012) for a comparative assessment of drought characteristics. The non- parametric Mann- Kendall (MK) test is applied to investigate the trend of droughts. Further, to predict the environmental Flow (EF) conditions from rainfall data only, the linkage of SPI with the average annual flow (%AAF) is examined over four sub-catchments (Mohegaon, Hridaynagar, Manot, and Sher) of the basin. The results reveal that the Narmada basin is prone to droughts with a frequency of once in 3 to 5 years. The frequency and severity of droughts have significantly increased in 1982-2012 as compared to 1951-1981. The severity of recent droughts shows a more widespread aerial extent in the region. The MK test results indicate an increasing trend in the droughts over most of the stations. An exquisite agreement between SPI and %AAF (used to describe the EF condition) is observed with R<sup>2</sup> ranging from 0.757 to 0.988, which shows that coupling SPI with %AAF can be effective for ungauged catchments. This study suggests that appropriate measures must be taken for better management of the water resources in the basin, and also for mitigation droughts, considering the increased risk of the severe drought events in recent decades.</p>

scholarly journals Drought and Ecological Flows in the Lower Guadiana River Basin (Southwest Iberian Peninsula)

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 677
Author(s):  
Inmaculada Pulido-Calvo ◽  
Juan Carlos Gutiérrez-Estrada ◽  
Víctor Sanz-Fernández
Keyword(s):  
Resource Management ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Ecological Status ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Temporary Streams ◽  
Ecological Flows

Drought temporal characterization is a fundamental instrument in water resource management and planning of basins with dry-summer Mediterranean climate and with a significant seasonal and interannual variability of precipitation regime. This is the case for the Lower Guadiana Basin, where the river is the border between Spain and Portugal (Algarve-Baixo Alentejo-Andalucía Euroregion). For this transboundary basin, a description and evaluation of hydrological drought events was made using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with monthly precipitation time series of Spanish and Portuguese climatic stations in the study area. The results showed the occurrence of global cycles of about 25–30 years with predominance of moderate and severe drought events. It was observed that the current requirements of ecological flows in strategic water bodies were not satisfied in some months of October to April of years characterized by severe drought events occurring in the period from 1946 to 2015. Therefore, the characterization of the ecological status of the temporary streams that were predominant in this basin should be a priority in the next hydrologic plans in order to identify the relationships between actual flow regimes and habitat attributes, thereby improving environmental flows assessments, which will enable integrated water resource management.

scholarly journals Probabilistic analysis of drought spatiotemporal characteristics inThessaly region, Greece

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (5/6) ◽  
pp. 719-731 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Loukas ◽  
L. Vasiliades
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Multiple Time Scales ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Spatial Characteristics ◽  
Sustainable Water Resources Management ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Characteristics

Abstract. The temporal and spatial characteristics of meteorological drought are investigated to provide a framework for sustainable water resources management in the region of Thessaly, Greece. Thessaly is the most intensely cultivated and productive agricultural plain region in Greece. Thessaly's total area is about 13700 km2 and it is surrounded by mountains and traversed by Pinios River. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an indicator of drought severity, the characteristics of droughts are examined. Thessaly was divided into 212 grid-cells of 8 x 8 km and monthly precipitation data for the period 1960–1993 from 50 meteorological stations were used for global interpolation of precipitation using spatial co-ordinates and elevation data. Drought severity was assessed from the estimated gridded SPI values at multiple time scales. Firstly, the temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts were analyzed and then, Drought Severity – Areal extent – Frequency (SAF) annual and monthly curves were developed. The analysis indicated that moderate and severe droughts are common in Thessaly region. Using the SAF curves, the return period of selected severe drought events was assessed.

scholarly journals Spatial patterns of European droughts under a moderate emission scenario

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Spinoni ◽  
G. Naumann ◽  
J. Vogt
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Increase ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Near Future

Abstract. Meteorological drought is generally defined as a prolonged deficiency of precipitation and is considered one of the most relevant natural hazards as the related impacts can involve many different sectors. In this study, we investigated the spatial patterns of European droughts for the periods 1981–2010, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, focusing on the projections under a moderate emissions scenario. To do that, we used the outputs of the KNMI-RACMO2 model, which belongs to the A1B family and whose spatial resolution is 0.25° × 0.25°. By means of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), we computed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the 12-month accumulation scale. Thereafter, we separately obtained drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity for the whole of Europe, excluding Iceland. According to both indicators, the spatial drought patterns are projected to follow what recently characterized Europe: southern Europe, who experienced many severe drought events in the last decades, is likely to be involved by longer, more frequent, severe, and intense droughts in the near future (2041–2070) and even more in the far future (2071–2100). This tendency is more evident using the SPEI, which also depends on temperature and consequently reflects the expected warming that will be highest for the Mediterranean area in Europe. On the other side, less severe and fewer drought events are likely to occur in northern Europe. This tendency is more evident using the SPI, because the precipitation increase is projected to outbalance the temperature (and PET) rise in particular in Scandinavia. Regarding the mid-latitudes, the SPEI-based analyses point at more frequent drought events, while the SPI-based ones point at less frequent events in these regions.

scholarly journals Analysis of Trends, Recurrences, Severity and Frequency of Droughts using SPI: Case of OR Tambo DM, Eastern Cape in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Nkamisa ◽  
Simbarashe Ndhleve ◽  
MDV Nakin ◽  
A Mngeni ◽  
H Kabiti
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
National Level ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Local Municipalities

Abstract South Africa is susceptible to droughts. However, there is little documentation on drought occurrence in South Africa at national level and its various administrative boundaries. The study aimed to profile the hydrological drought in ORTDM from 1998–2018; computing their frequency, severity and intensity so as to show areas of high vulnerability. Data used on this study was obtained from South African Weather Services in Pretoria. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated using the Meteorological Drought Monitor (MDM) software computing drought frequency, severity and intensity using 3 and 6 months SPI. The results showed a wide variation in monthly precipitation throughout the year. Coastal areas receive high rainfall than inland municipalities. When recorded in descending order, the drought intensity Nyandeni shows the highest drought frequency with a percentage of 62%, Mhlontlo (58%), KSDM (57%), Ngquza Hill (55%) and Port St Johns showing the least at (52%). The hydrological drought severity frequency and duration varied between 7 days to 9 weeks. Drought intensity class exposed the annual average intensity for the 5 local municipalities represented as follows; KSDM (-0.71), PSJM (-0.99), Ngquza Hill (-0.81), Nyandeni (-0.71) and Mhlontlo (-0.62). Maximum drought intensity for the 5 local municipalities showed the following results KSDM (-2.4), PSJM (-1.8), Ngquza Hill M (-1.9), Nyandeni M (-2.8) and Mhlontlo M (-3.1). The longest drought duration across OR Tambo was experienced in 2014 and has the following durations: KSDM (3 weeks), PSJM (5 weeks), Ngquza Hill (7 weeks), Nyandeni (8 weeks) and Mhlontlo (11 weeks). ORTDM is susceptible to hydrological droughts and the extent vary across local municipalities. The results could be used as a guide to the allocation of resources for drought relief purpose in a way that seeks to prioritize drought prone areas and vulnerable municipality. The SPI could be a useful when forecasting and estimating the frequency, duration and intensity of droughts. However, emphasis should be placed on improving the quality of data as this is key in improving the quality of its outcome.

Geographical features of forest vegetation reflected at the level of the lower-rank syntaxa (evidence from the Russian part of the Upper Dnieper basin)

2017 ◽  
pp. 94-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu. A. Semenishchenkov
Keyword(s):  
Forest Vegetation ◽  
East European Plain ◽  
Early 20Th Century ◽  
Suggested Approach ◽  
Central European ◽  
Classification Schemes ◽  
East European ◽  
Lower Rank ◽  
Geographical Variations ◽  
European Part Of Russia

Phytogeographical features of forest vegetation at the level of lower-rank syntaxa were being discussed in literature since the early 20th century (Cajander, 1903; Sukachev, 1926; Braun-Blanquet, 1964; Kral et al., 1975; Kleopov, 1990; Bulokhov, 2003; Ellenberg, 2009), however, phytocoenologists still have no uniform interpretation and geographical maintenance of lower classification units. Forest vegetation of the European part of Russia is well studied according to Braun-Blanquet approach with association as a system of geographical subassociations. The paper offers the approaches to the reflection of geographical variations of the natural forest vegetation in the basin of the Upper Dnieper (central part of the East European Plain) at the level of lower-rank syntaxa The xeromesophytic oak woods in the basin of the Upper Dnieper belong to the East European ass. Lathyro nigri–Quercetum roboris Bulokhov et Solomeshch 2003. Floristic differentiation of this association from the similar Central European ass. Potentillo-Quercetum is given. These two associations have large blocks of geographically significant differential species that does not allow to consider them as a part of one association. The suggested approach allows to define the chorological content of units of lower syntaxonomical ranks and make regional classification schemes comparable to each other.

scholarly journals Eastern Europe’s “Transitional Industry”?: Deconstructing the Early Streletskian

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Dinnis ◽  
A. Bessudnov ◽  
N. Reynolds ◽  
T. Devièse ◽  
A. Dudin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Modern Human ◽  
East European Plain ◽  
Upper Palaeolithic ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
East European ◽  
Archaeological Material ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Layer V ◽  
Precise Relationship ◽  
Early Upper

AbstractThe Streletskian is central to understanding the onset of the Upper Palaeolithic on the East European Plain. Early Streletskian assemblages are frequently seen as marking the Neanderthal-anatomically modern human (AMH) anthropological transition, as well as the Middle-to-Upper Palaeolithic archaeological transition. The age of key Streletskian assemblages, however, remains unclear, and there are outstanding questions over how they relate to Middle and Early Upper Palaeolithic facies. The three oldest Streletskian layers—Kostenki 1 Layer V, Kostenki 6 and Kostenki 12 Layer III—were excavated by A. N. Rogachev in the mid-20th century. Here, we re-examine these layers in light of problems noted during Rogachev’s campaigns and later excavations. Layer V in the northern part of Kostenki 1 is the most likely assemblage to be unmixed. A new radiocarbon date of 35,100 ± 500 BP (OxA- X-2717-21) for this assemblage agrees with Rogachev’s stratigraphic interpretation and contradicts later claims of a younger age. More ancient radiocarbon dates for Kostenki 1 Layer V are from areas lacking diagnostic Streletskian points. The Kostenki 6 assemblage’s stratigraphic context is extremely poor, but new radiocarbon dates are consistent with Rogachev’s view that the archaeological material was deposited prior to the CI tephra (i.e. >34.3 ka BP). Multiple lines of evidence indicate that Kostenki 12 Layer III contains material of different ages. Despite some uncertainty over the precise relationship between the dated sample and diagnostic lithic material, Kostenki 1 Layer V (North) therefore currently provides the best age estimate for an early Streletskian context. This age is younger than fully Upper Palaeolithic assemblages elsewhere at Kostenki. Other “Streletskian” assemblages and Streletskian points from younger contexts at Kostenki are briefly reviewed, with possible explanations for their chronostratigraphic distribution considered. We caution that the cultural taxon Streletskian should not be applied to assemblages based simply on the presence of bifacially worked artefacts.

scholarly journals An Assessment of Drought Stress in Tea Estates Using Optical and Thermal Remote Sensing

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 2730
Author(s):  
Animesh Chandra Das ◽  
Ryozo Noguchi ◽  
Tofael Ahamed
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Drought Stress ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Moisture Index ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Drought Period

Drought is one of the detrimental climatic factors that affects the productivity and quality of tea by limiting the growth and development of the plants. The aim of this research was to determine drought stress in tea estates using a remote sensing technique with the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS images were processed to measure the land surface temperature (LST) and soil moisture index (SMI). Maps for the normalized difference moisture index (NDMI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and leaf area index (LAI), as well as yield maps, were developed from Sentinel-2 satellite images. The drought frequency was calculated from the classification of droughts utilizing the SPI. The results of this study show that the drought frequency for the Sylhet station was 38.46% for near-normal, 35.90% for normal, and 25.64% for moderately dry months. In contrast, the Sreemangal station demonstrated frequencies of 28.21%, 41.02%, and 30.77% for near-normal, normal, and moderately dry months, respectively. The correlation coefficients between the SMI and NDMI were 0.84, 0.77, and 0.79 for the drought periods of 2018–2019, 2019–2020 and 2020–2021, respectively, indicating a strong relationship between soil and plant canopy moisture. The results of yield prediction with respect to drought stress in tea estates demonstrate that 61%, 60%, and 60% of estates in the study area had lower yields than the actual yield during the drought period, which accounted for 7.72%, 11.92%, and 12.52% yield losses in 2018, 2019, and 2020, respectively. This research suggests that satellite remote sensing with the SPI could be a valuable tool for land use planners, policy makers, and scientists to measure drought stress in tea estates.

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